The End is Nigh! Frey's Week 17 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3 ½)

Despite their recent victories over some pretty questionable teams, I still feel that Atlanta is not as good as their 13-2 record might suggest. 

Now, they are a slightly overrated 13-2 team playing a game for which they have absolutely nothing to gain by winning. 

I am leaning toward the Bucs here.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-3 ½)

I’ve suffered one too many humiliating kicks in the crotch from the Bills:  The Rams game form 2 weeks ago.  The Music City Miracle.  The 90’s….

More importantly, I cannot remember a time when any team carrying a violently angry Tim Tebow on their roster has ever failed to cover in Buffalo.

J-E-T-S-L-O-L .

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2 ½)

The most meaningless game of the season without question.  Both teams are in the playoffs already.  Both teams cannot do anything to improve or diminish their respective seedings.  Both will have to play in the first round, and both need to avoid any additional costly injuries. 

However, both teams are not playing at home.  Take the Bengals as they may play just a little harder to ensure that Cinci-tucky fans with the IQ’s of golf bags don’t boo as much.

Chicago at Detroit (+3 ½)

The catastrophic collapse of Detroit (inevitable as it may have been given the cesspool of a city in which they play) has been most enjoyable.  I mean, their best player likes to kick people in the dong. 

All the cards are on the table, the pot is right, and Chicago is all in.  Everything hinges on this one game.  Win this one and there is a very good chance they can have a postseason for redemption.  Lose and all hope is lost.

This is precisely the type of game in which Norvy Smith and his QB, Captain Sulky, eat the proverbial poo.

Dong-Kickers cover.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4 ½)

If you want to read anything about this game, go elsewhere.  We only talk about football here.

Houston at Indianapolis (+3 ½)

The return of Chuck Pagano in front of a raucous home crowd is certain to bolster the hearts and fortify the souls of the Colts! 

It should be a very interesting first half of football before Indy pulls their starters and prepares for their improbable playoff run.

Sorry Broncos fans.  Houston wins this one and covers.

Carolina at New Orleans (-4 ½)

Both these teams seem to be at their best when there is absolutely no pressure on them to do anything.

I think that many Saints fans are secretly hoping for a small, motivational hurricane, to get them off to a better start next year.

Should someone succeed in convincing  brainy Auburn grad Cam Newton that a victory puts them in the playoffs, I’d bet my house on New Orleans.

If “scared money never wins” and both teams know they are playing for a 40 cent pot, expect an excellent, precise game with the home team emerging victorious.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7 ½)

Well the tidal wave of rotating brilliance and buffoonery that served me so well in predicting the Giants’ fortunes finally crashed on the beaches of Baltimore last week.

Much like the Redsox fan that wandered the streets of Boston confused and without purpose after they finally won the World Series, I too must come to terms with a world that no longer makes any sense.

Oh wait!  Michael Vick is starting this week for a crappy Philly team!  It all makes sense again.  Take the Giants to cover.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6 ½)

I feel a great comfort in the fact that I have regained my self-respect and am refusing to bet on either Cleveland or the Bills to do anything other than disappoint. 

I can almost feel the stock market rebounding and the recession ending. 

I know that Pittsburgh has looked abysmal of late and that Big Ben has looked like garbage but come on man!  These are the Browns!  Recapture the natural order of things and bet Steelers here.

Green Bay at Minnesota (+3 ½)

This game will tell us much about both these teams.  Is Green Bay back to the level of excellence that made them Super bowl favorites?  Are the Vikings’ successes this season nothing more than smoke and mirrors?

For a number of reasons, Minnesota reminds me of last year’s Broncos with a slightly less crappy QB and a superior running back.  This makes them good enough to beat confused, injured, and fading teams like Houston but I don’t think they can hang with the resurgent Pack.

Miami at New England (-10 ½)

One of the most gratifying things about this season (aside from not having to watch the Broncos go 3-and-out 17 times each game) is that the early losses of good teams kept those ancient, annoying, overrated 1972 Dolphins hacks from polluting the airwaves. 

As much as the 1972 Dolphins were overrated, the current incarnation of the Dolphins is not overrated. They’re just not that good and everyone knows this.

The Pats did not handle their business particularly well last week against the Jags but if one thing can be said about the Patriots it is that they cheat and are scum.  I also think they want to head into the postseason without the specter of struggling against 2 crappy teams in a row hanging over their shoulders.

Oakland at San Diego (-4 ½)

The Admiral Akbar Game of the Week. You know the drill. Click Here

Oakland is on the road, losers of 11 games, and fiercely debating whether to start Tyrell Pryor or Matt Leinart in place of the injured Carson Palmer.

How can any losing team faced with choosing between death by impaling and death by evisceration be only a 4 ½ point underdog on the road? 

Akbar my friends.  Akbar.

As I am wont to do, I’ll fall into the trap.  Give me the Bolts.

Arizona at San Francisco (-14 ½)

Arizona may be the only team in the NFL (aside from this week’s Raiders) where Tim Tebow would be an upgrade at the QB position. 

As a fan of excellence, watching a talent like Larry Fitzgerald languish in QB purgatory causes me great sadness.  Somebody needs to launch a “Free the Irishman” campaign and get him to come here to Denver.

San Francisco needs this game far too badly to show up flat.  49ers roll and roll big.  The Cardinals are so bad that even their garbage time +/- is crappy.


Kansas City at Denver (-15 ½)

I'm gonna jump right into the gambler's fallacy here.   Week after glorious week I keep predicting a Broncos win but a back-door cover by our opponent.  My friends, this is just a ton of points to lay down to any division opponent, particularly one with a stout running game on what is forecast to be a very cold day. 

If we lose this game, I'll tatoo a picture of Brady Quinn on my buttocks but I just don't like the number this week. 

31-16 looks really plausible right now. 

St. Louis at Seattle (-10 ½)

My goodness what the hell happened up in Seattle?  I don’t know what’s more unheard of, a point differential of +120 in 3 games or the fact that a player actually won a PED appeal.

There are some possible seeding ramifications here and while the Rams are indeed an underrated and well-coached opponent, I see no reason to start doubting a team with such a powerful home presence and a coach that calls fake punts when ahead by 62 points.

Seahawks cover the 10 ½.

Dallas at Washington (-3 ½)

This is the classic example of how historical trends are going to be both re-affirmed and broken regardless of the result of the game.

If Dallas wins, it sends Shanahan to yet another late defeat as the home favorite to deny him a playoff spot but also disrupts the tendency of Dallas to fade late, miss the playoffs, and fire their coach.

If the Redskins win, Shanahan finally gives history the finger and wins a game he is supposed to win and goes to the playoffs while Dallas fades late, misses the playoffs, and fires their coach.

The current composition of the entire Cowboy’s franchise hinges upon this game but Mike Shanahan is turning more crimson by the minute.  Redskin time!

Last Week:  13-3

Season Record against the spread: 133-107

Damn the Torpedos! Full Speed Ahead!: Frey's Week 16 Picks and Analysis

Atlanta at Detroit (+3 ½)

Week after week, I would watch the almost certainly victorious Lions do something unconscionably stupid resulting in defeat.  Pundits across the country would invariably ask, “How the hell did they just lose that game?”  I believe I finally have the answer to this omnipresent question.  They suck.  Falcons win and cover.

New Orleans at Dallas (-3 ½)

Dallas is like the Falcons team leading up to their loss to Carolina.  These guys are winning games that they have no business winning (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati) and struggled against a rookie QB at home (Philly).  New Orleans played great last week (defensively for a change) and is coming into this game feeling pretty damn good about themselves.   The Cowboys are one of only a handful of teams who are crappier at home than on the road (I suspect it has something to do with playing in a stadium teeming with big pageant hair and blue makeup) so I think it stays close with Dallas winning on a late field goal.  Fear the half point!  Saints cover.

Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5)

The Titans forced 5 turnovers (without committing one) last week at home against the dog-butt Jets and only won by 4.  With that little piece of history as a point of measure, they could force 37 turnovers and still lose to the Packers in Lambeau.  They probably won’t even get half that many so I’ll go ahead and take the Packers to cover here in a game they need for seeding purposes.

Indianapolis at Kansas City (+6 ½)

The Admiral Akbar game of the week Click here to see what I mean.  Can anyone tell me why a 2 win team who just got shut out by the only team in the NFL as crappy as they are is less than a touchdown dog to a hungry 9-5 team desperate for a spot in the playoffs?  I suspect a number of bookmakers in Vegas could fill me in here but my wife frowns upon my having such acquaintances.  I’m gonna go ahead and fall into the trap.  Colts to cover.

Buffalo at Miami (-4 ½)

Following a home game in Toronto, the Chan Gailey farewell tour continues in sunny Florida.  Following the blowout last week, a concerned Buffalo fan (I guess he was a fan.  I mean who the hell else talks about the Bills if they don’t have a rooting interest?) expressed despair and surprise at the fact that people think Gailey should relinquish his play-calling duties and focus on some of the more high-level management duties assigned to a head coach.  The logic behind this incredulity is centered around the fact that the current OC has never called plays before. 

Only the Bills will defend the hiring and current employ of a head coach of a losing team who brings aboard an Offensive Coordinator who doesn’t know how to coordinate an offense.  I can’t possibly do anything but take a mediocre Miami team to cover here.

San Diego at NY Jets (-2 ½)

I have been gleefully following the baboonery surrounding the Jets franchise for months now.  Watching the Tebow-philes explode in righteous indignation when it was announced that Timmy Try-Hard has been passed over by a 7^th round pick who has only fielded a few meaningful NFL snaps is like an early Christmas gift. 

A coworker of mine was wondering despairingly why the Jets traded for Tebow if they had no intention of playing him.  Easy answer here.  They realized the same thing that any savvy football fan without a religious axe to grind already knew.  Denver’s playoff run was due to luck and a heroic defense, not to a guy who tosses more dirtballs than the bouncer at Hooters. 

I was thinking about making this the Admiral Akbar game of the week and then I remembered that San Diego is still coached by Norv Turner.  I’ll fall into this trap also.  San Diego wins outright.

Washington at Philadelphia (+4 ½)

2 weeks ago, I wrote that Mike Shannahan was eventually going to be the same color as the warrior on the Redskins' helmet and that rest of the league had best beware.  Check it:  It has finally happened. Redskins to cover without question.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4 ½)

I can’t stop picking the Bengals.  It’s like I have this horrible, diseased, gaudily tiger-striped monkey on my back.  Well I’m not gonna beat my monkey this week and neither are the Steelers.  I am beginning to believe that last year’s playoff loss to Denver was the first sign that the sun is setting on the Pittsburgh Empire.  I don't know if Cincy wins outright but I do believe they’ll cover the 4 ½. 

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)

What the hell happened to Tampa?  One minute they are an offensive juggernaut playing with purpose and confidence, and the next minute their saying, “Wait a second!  We’re Tampa!  We can’t have this nonsense!” and started playing shitty. 

I suspect that they are favored because they can run ball and stymie the opponents' running game. 

Saint Louis just got torched by the Vikings on the ground and is mediocre at best in the air where Tampa is weak.  While I hope this is finally the game where some team throws a quick pass over the top from their victory formation when Tampa lunges in like a bunch of jack-wagons, I’m going to lean Tampa here.

Oakland at Carolina (- 8 ½)

Under normal circumstances, this is a huge line for a 5-9 team playing against a 4-10 squad.  However, history is beginning to suggest that Cam Newton plays great when games are meaningless.  From what I can tell, no game is more meaningless or disinteresting than this one .  Therefore, Cam will explode.   Given the fact that the Raiders couldn’t score in a 5 cent whorehouse with a pocket full of nickels, I foresee a rout.

New England at Jacksonville (+14 ½)

It causes me physical pain to take a road team to cover a 14 ½ point spread but not here.  The cheating bastard Patriots love to take out the frustrations of a prior loss by kicking craphole teams while they are down in an effort to regain their self-esteem.  Like the schoolyard bully who got a thrashing from an older sibling the night before, I think New England storms over to the Kindergarten playground and starts thumping skulls until their thirst for evil is satiated.  Brady throws 3 TD’s passes in the 4^th quarter when they are already up by 24 in order to make his wife amorous again.  The A-hole cheating Patriots cover this one.

Minnesota at Houston (-7 ½)

Here is Wade Phillips’ chance to prove his quality.  Logic demands that if the Texans give up a hundred yards to the immortal Vick Ballard of the Colts last week then AP will run for over 13,000 yards this weekend.  Houston wants this game.  Houston NEEDS this game.  I think they stack the line, try everything within their power to contain AP, and dare Ponder to do something, anything, in the air.  With Percy Harvin on IR, the Vikes just don’t have the weapons to air it out with any consistency.  I like Houston in something like a 30-17 game. 

Cleveland at Denver (-13 ½)

Yes.  That’s right.  I’m taking the Browns again.  I would bet my house that Manning does not allow the Broncos to totally let down and that a win is imminent, but Denver has a tendency to call off the dogs and let teams feast on garbage in the 4^th quarter.  I believe the line may finally be big enough for Cleveland to back-door a cover instead of my arse after last week’s fiasco against the Skins.

Chicago at Arizona (+5 ½)

I have 2 reasons to take the Bears here:

  1)  Like the Cornhuskers in college ball, Chicago loses the games they are supposed to lose, loses the games they might be expected to win, and absolutely destroys teams that suck.  Arizona most decidedly falls into the “suck” category.

  2)  The Cardinals cannot possibly be expected to be competitive 2 weeks in a row.  They are the Cardinals. 

Bears to win and cover.

New York Giants at Baltimore (+ 2 ½)

No detailed analysis here.  Last week was bed-crapping week for the Giants.  This week is ass-kicking week (See picks from week 14 and 15 for detailed reasoning).  It is the order of things.  NYG to win outright.

San Francisco at Seattle (+ 1 ½)

This game should be a blast to watch.  2 Rookie QB’s, 2 great defenses, and 2 teams with much on the line.  I noticed that the weather is supposed to be cold, wet, and generally crappy and initially wanted to give the advantage to Seattle when I remembered that cold, wet, and generally crappy is not altogether unknown in San Francisco.   

Richard Sherman will not yet be suspended for PED’s so I like the Seahawks to give Kaepernik a very hard time in a very loud and hostile stadium.  It’ll be close, but I think Seattle pulls it off.  Plus, I’m benching Seattle’s defense in my fantasy championship so they are certain to have a historically good week.

Last week:  7-9

Season Record against the spread 120-104

The Seer is In!: Frey's Week 15 NFL Picks

Cincinnati at Philadelphia  (+3 ½)

Maybe it’s because the memory of the Icky-Shuffle always brings me great mirth during the Yule season, but I seem to be leaning Bengals a lot of late.  Cincy plays great on the road (4-2) and while Foles looked great last week, he put up those numbers against the worst pass defense in the NFL.  Playing in front of those Philistines in the “City of Brotherly Love” always makes the eagles trip over their own dongs.  I like the Bengals to rebound and cover this week.

New York at Atlanta (-1 ½)

2 of my existing theories are running into each other this week.  On one hand, I have the “NY alternates between bed-crapping and ass-kicking from week to week.”  On the other, I have my “Atlanta kind of sucks for a 11-2 team” theory.  Both played out perfectly last week.  The line is small, the Falcons are at home and (I suspect) may have less of an inflated opinion of themselves after the previous week.  While the Giants have a tendency to show up big in big games against good teams, it’s bed-shitting week.  Atlanta covers.

Green Bay at Chicago (+2 ½)

The Bears simply cannot seem to beat anyone that doesn’t suck.  Green Bay had their “we played like arse” game last week and still won the so they have been sufficiently scared without ruining their momentum.  I swear I saw Lovey Smith sporting a  “Norv Turner” look last week.  2 ½ points isn’t much to give here.  If the Pack wins, they’ll do it by more than a field goal.  The Bears prefer epic collapse to nail-biting losses.   Take the Green here and give the points.

Washington at Cleveland (-1 ½)

If RG III isn’t gimping around with a bad leg there is no way I make this pick.  None.  I can’t believe I am saying this, but Cleveland’s defense is much better than Baltimore’s and I think that Cousins (or a gimpy RGIII) is going to struggle here.  I sense a very close game and that half point may hose me here, but I feel a 20-17 Browns win coming on unless Shurmurr does something really, really dumb again.  I give this only 1 chance in 3 though.  Did I just take both the Browns and the Bengals on consecutive weeks?  May God have mercy on my soul……

Minnesota at St. Louis (-2 ½)

The Rams are quietly having a pretty solid season and seem to absolutely feast on teams with good running attacks and less than stellar QB’s.  AP may get his 100 yards yet again, but it will take him more than 20 carries to do so.  I would probably lean toward Minnesota on a neutral field, but, as I am fond of saying, Ponder sucks.  If the Vikes have to throw a bunch, this won’t be nearly as close as the line suggests.  Jeff Fisher excels at extracting mediocrity out of refuse.  I like the refuse to cover at home.

Jacksonville at Miami (-7 ½)

I have a rule when betting:  Don’t ever take a dog-shit team with a rookie QB and give up any more than 6 ½ points.  I don’t even care if they are playing the Chiefs.  This may be teaser fodder but it’s good for little else.  Jags to cover please.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3 ½)

At this stage in the game, the Saints have little else to play for other than to rinse the foul taste of eating crap from their maws.  I like Tampa’s offense and think they may be going places in the long run, but they just made Nick Foles look like Warren Moon from Super Tecmo Bowl.  Crappiest pass D in the league on the road against Drew Brees?  It’s not Rocket Surgery.  Take the Saints.

Denver at Baltimore (+2 ½)

This is a tough game for many reasons.  Denver sucks in Baltimore and the Ravens do not suck in Baltimore.  On the other hand, Payton Manning isn’t Tebow/Orton/Greise/Plummer/Cutler.  Suggs and Lewis may play this week providing a great deal of leadership and esprit de corps, but Ray Lewis isn’t Ray Lewis anymore.  You know who is Ray Lewis?  Von Miller.  Crap…..I don’t know…tough line also…..I’ll just do the reverse jinx and take the Ravens.

Indianapolis at Houston (-7 ½)

That’s a big line for a team that just got punked by the Patriots.  A really big line.  There are 2 primary possibilities that will determine this game in my estimation::

1)      The Texans are like bullies who just transferred schools (or like Mike Tyson).  Once the aura of fear is lifted from them, they fold quicker than Superman on laundry day.

2)      They get super pissed about last week’s ass-kicking and take it out on a rookie (albeit skilled) QB on their home field and regain their self-respect.

These guys aren’t the Cowboys and followed up their loss to the Packers with verve so I’ll take option #2 this week.

Seattle at Buffalo (+5 ½)

How come nobody ever takes me up on my request to punch me in the face whenever I take the Bills?  It’s a free punch in the face.  I am sure there is someone out there besides my spouse who would like to avail themselves of this opportunity. 

Well you missed your chance.  No Bills this week.  The only chance they have to even keep it close is if the Seahawks are so shocked by running into a team that is not the Cardinals (coupled with ingesting some room-temperature Canadian beef) that they actually die right there on the field.

Detroit at Arizona (+5 ½)

Yet again, Detroit managed to take certain victory and turn it into a gigantic pile of “we’re a bunch of losers from a dumbass cesspool city”.  Fortunately, they play the Cardinals this week.  Arizona may be the only team in the country that I would take to beat the CU Buffs by less than 28.  Even a bunch of jack-wagons like Detroit can’t #$%& this one up.  Can they? 

Seems trappish but I’m taking the Lions here and laying the points.

Carolina at San Diego (-2 ½)

With his last dying gasp, Norv reaches from his death bed and screws over his team by jacking up their draft position.  The safest bet on the board is that Norv will hose over the Chargers and their fans and the best way to that now is for this carcass of a coach to win out.  Besides, Carolina got their big win last week and Cam loves himself some let-down games.  Take the Bolts secure in the knowledge that San Diego fans will certainly get “Norved”.

Pittsburgh at Dallas (+1 ½)

If the same Dallas team that beat up on the Giants and persevered with great effort against the Bengals shows up for this game I like the Cowboys to win outright here.

If my Aunt had a penis she would be my Uncle. 

Big Ben recovers and so do the Steelers.

Kansas City at Oakland (- 2 ½)

If I had a European friend who I thought was too much of a sissy to watch the NFL and I never wanted him or her to dishonor our country by claiming to like football I’d have them watch this game.  I don’t even want to pick someone on this game because it feels stupid to do so.  I guess I’ll take the Chefs because the Coliseum is the shittiest place I have ever been.

San Francisco at New England (-5 ½)

I still don’t like the idea of replacing a QB who had just won NFC player of the week when they come back from a concussion.  Harbaugh is like that suave gigolo we all knew in college who would routinely date hot chicks and then dump them because he knew he was the shit.  Then he got old and fat and ended up selling insurance.  Don’t confuse the ineptitude of his predecessors with current coaching brilliance.  The Niners have the feel of a team on the way down. 

Conversely, New England is a bunch of cheating, worthless, lobster-buggerers.  They are also playing much better right now.  As  a Broncos fan I desperate hope for a SF win but I’m not holding my breath.  The Lobster-Humpers win and cover.

NY Jets at Tennessee (-1 ½)

If your fantasy football season does not hinge on the performance of a player from one of these 2 teams, shame on you for watching this game.  Shame. 

Titans at home to cover.

Last week:  6-10

Season Record against the spread 113-95

Read up Monkeys: Frey's week 14 NFL picks

Denver at Oakland (+10 ½)

I believe I am not alone when I thought that the Raiders were finally due for resurgence once Al Davis passed on to either oblivion or the next life.  If you are out there Al, please accept my apology.  You guys suck no matter who is in charge.  Still, 10 ½ is a ton of points to be getting for a home divisional game.  I am reluctantly taking the Raiders here but will need to shower immediately after writing this blog.

St. Louis at Buffalo (-3 ½)

Someone once told me that the sun never shines on the same dog’s ass more than once.  While it is true that the Bills are a dog’s ass, I’m feeling a second ray of sunshine coming.  I mean, they can’t be the Bills unless they rip out the hearts of their fans and stomp on them right?  Buffalo will do just well enough to miss out on some good draft picks but crap the bed when it looks like a playoff push may be in the cards.  I’m taking the dog’s ass at home to cover.

Dallas at Cincinnati (-3 ½)

Both the Cowboys and Bengals show the propensity to look both great or crappy depending upon the week.  Sometimes, they will show this tendency from quarter to quarter.  However, Dallas sucks.  The Cowboys just let Nick Folks drop 33 on them.  Take the Bengals here and give the points. 

Kansas City at Cleveland (-5 ½)

I feel bad for KC given the recent tragic events.  For this reason, I will eschew mentioning what a bunch of under-achieving dipshits they are and just take the Browns who have been playing pretty damn good defense of late.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-5 ½)

1.    I am somewhat shocked at this line.  I feel a great disturbance in the force See what I mean here.  Still, I cannot help myself.  One team is playing well, is at home, and has everything to lose by dropping this game.  The other team appears to exist for the sole purpose of %$#&ing me over in my fantasy league.   Taking the Colts to cover.

Chicago at Minnesota (+2 ½)

This is a tough call.  AP is a man among slightly smaller men and can single handedly keep the Vikings in the game until Cutler quits on his team or yells at a lineman.  On the other hand, Christian Ponder does really stupid shit at least twice a game against even crappy defenses.  Even without Urlacher, I think the Bears beat the spread.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6 ½)

Just when you think the Steelers are done, they stagger back up and fight like warriors. 

Just when you think the Chargers are done, they are done.

Take the Steelers at home to cover no matter who the QB is.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (-7 ½)

Am I the only one who thinks that losing the bulk of their offensive starters has made Philly better?  I mean, they actually play like they haven’t been on the team long enough to realize what a dunderpate Andy Reid is.  Additionally, being away from their hostile fan base is actually a benefit to the Eagles.  I like the Bucs in the game but that extra half point has succeeded in scaring me off.  Eagles to cover .

Baltimore at Washington (- ½)

I firmly believe that Mike Shannahan will eventually be the same color as the mascot on the Redskins’ helmets.  If this happens, watch out.  Washington wins a close one at home.

Atlanta at Carolina (+3 ½)

For the last 3 weeks I have been saying that Atlanta is due for a crap game.  Every week I’ve been right but they keep winning.  Ron Rivera is on the hot seat and Carolina just suffered a humiliating loss to the dog-butt Chiefs.  This time, I’m banking that Atlanta plays yet another crap game, still wins, but doesn’t cover.  Take the Panthers.

NY Jets at Jacksonville (+2 ½)

BOOOOOOOOO!    BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!  BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

**the above sentiment is borrowed from Bill Simmons

Miami at San Francisco (-10 ½)

Remember back in the day when we all wanted to bench Bubby Brister because Brian Greise looked really good like twice in preseason? 

Me too.  Miami covers here.

New Orleans at NY Giants (-5 ½)

I’m done basing my predictions regarding Giants games upon reason, logic, and data.  From now on, I’m just going to try and remember if it is bed-shitting week or kickass week.  I think its kickass week.  Doesn’t matter what the Saints do.  Take the Giants to win big.

 Arizona at Seattle (-10 ½)

When I first saw this line I was almost as shocked as I was with the Colts game.  Seattle has a rookie QB, just lost their best corner to suspension, and is coming off a very hard fought and emotional win in Chicago.  Undoubtedly, the Seahawks are looking past the Cardinals making a 10 ½ line pretty iffy right?  Then I remembered that the Cards forced a bunch of turnovers and held a team to like 6 yards last week and still lost.  I hate huge lines like that but a 23-10 Seattle win looks pretty plausible here.

Detroit at Green Bay (-6 ½)

I have never seen a team find more ways to lose than Detroit.  These guys have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory at least a half dozen times this year.  No wonder their city stinks and no one can find jobs out there.  It is said that even Bangladeshis avoid Detroit.  They’re all a bunch of losers.  Screw you Detroit.

Houston at New England (-4 ½)

The Texans can sew up home field in the AFC with a win here.  However, they can also sew up home field in the AFC by getting a couple wins against much shittier teams in weeks 15 and 16.  New England is a bunch of practice-filming cheaters whose fans routinely violate rodents.  I think the Pats cover here.

Last Week: 8-8

Season Record against the spread: 107-85

The House Always Wins: Week 13 NFL Picks

Saints at Falcons (-3 ½) –

Atlanta has been sneaking by a lot of crappy teams on their home field.  Brees and the Saints are pretty pissed about literally giving a game away to the 49ers last week.  It’s time the Falcons finally get the nasty surprise with which they have been flirting.  Who Dey?!

Jaguars @ Bills (-6 ½)—

Do I take the team that sucks playing on the road or do I take the Bills to cover?  This is kind of like Sophie’s choice.  I suspect Chad Henne will remember that he is, indeed, Chad Henne and the Bills will win by 10 or so.  I can’t believe I picked the Bills…..

Seahawks @ Bears (-4 ½)—

Seattle can’t play on the road and it looks like their starting CB’s may have to sit out due to being a bunch of McGuire’s.  Couldn’t DJ Williams have loaned them some goat pee or something?  Bears to cover.

Colts @ Lions (-4 ½)—

Too late in the year to take a rookie QB on the road against a team that shows occasional glimpses of competence.  Good chance Suh tries to kick Luck in the dong no matter the tenor of the game.  Lions to cover.

Vikings @ Packers (-9 ½)—

Green Bay is probably pretty pissed about last week.  If they’d beaten the giants I would have taken the Vikings here.  Moreover, every time I take the points and bet against the Pack at Lambeau I get schooled.  Aaron Rodgers looks like a frightened Frenchman with that ugly-assed moustache.  If he wears it again this week disregard this pick…..

Taxans @ Titans (+5 ½)—

I think this is one of those situations where the Texans have come so close to getting beat by crappy teams that they actually do not come out flat here.  Jake Locker either looks crappy or he looks kind of crappy.  Either way, the Titans’ Defense can’t stop anyone so I look for Houston to cover here on the road.

Panthers @ Chiefs (+3 ½)—

Do you know the difference between the Kansas City Chiefs and a steaming pile of baboon shit?  Me Neither.  Take Carolina here.

49ers @ Rams (+7 ½)—

I think Harbaugh’s little two-timing thing he has going with his QB’s is finally going to bite him on the ass.  This is just the type of game a Rookie like Kaepernik struggles with a few times each season.  I like the extra half point here to take me some Rams.

Patriots @ Dolphins (+7 ½)—

New England is a bunch of worthless cheating bastards.  Sadly, they are also pretty darn good.  Still, I suspect they are pretty pleased with beating the dog-butt Jets and may be looking past the ‘Fins to the Texans game.  I don’t like it, but I’m kind of leaning toward the fish to beat the spread on this one.

Cardinals @ Jets (-4 ½)—

These 2 teams may have the worst QB’s this side of Boulder Colorado.  I mean, I cannot even begin to describe the amount of suckage here.  I could try, but I would not be successful.  Maybe the Jets are embarrassed enough by last week to bring some anger to a home game.  I guess take the Jets. 

Buccaneers @ Broncos (-6 ½)—

Much like Atlanta, Denver has been winning ugly.  I suspect, however, that the Bucs having won 4 of their last 5 might wake us up a bit.  Plus, the Tampa secondary is so crappy that Tebow might even be able to complete half his passes against it.  Bad secondary + Payton manning = Broncos Cover.

Browns @ Raiders (- ½)—

Good Lord there are some crappy games this week.  Browns actually play like they care and if their head coach wasn’t among the dumbest people on the planet, might even be close to .500.  The Raiders just suck because they suck.  Go Browns.

Bengals @ Chargers (+1 ½)—

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!  Norv Turner!  LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.  Bengals here.

Steelers @ Ravens (-6 ½)—

The Steelers are too banged up to beat up the skinny kid for his lunch money much less go into Baltimore and keep it close.  Smells like one of those 17 -9 games.  Taking the home team.

Eagles @ Cowboys (-9 ½)—

Dallas, just like their fans, are a bunch of front running loud mouths who seem to only man up when they can gather together and kick a dude in the head when he is down.  The Eagles are already curled into the fetal position.  Protect the Head Philly!  Protect the head!

Giants @ Redskins (+2 ½)—

Tough call here.  NY really gets cocky after playing well and they looked awesome last week against a very good Packers team.  I almost took the Skins but remembered that the Giants can bring really good pressure with their front 4 and RG III is still a rookie last I checked.  Shannahan also looks like a rodent.  Tough Division game here so I give the nod to the champs.

Season Record against the spread: 99-77

Thanksgiving Day Picks

 

Houston @ Detroit (+3.5)

Total logic pick here.  Last week, Chad Henne threw for 354 yards on Houston.  Justin Blackmon went off for 236 yards receiving.  Now everyone knows that Matt Stafford is twice the QB that Henne is and that Calvin Johnson is 3 times as good as Blackmon.  Therefore, both Stafford and Megatron finish with 708 yards.  Besdies, who the hell wants to be anywhere near Detroit on a holiday?  Take the Lions and the points here.

 

Washington @ Dallas (-3)

The current incarnation of the Cowboys is like that blackhead everyone gets in the same spot.  No matter who many times you get rid of it, it keeps showing up again.  RG III is legit even without any offensive talent of which to speak but the Redskins D is the NFL equivalent of the Buffs.  Tony Romo is choking machine at home but I hear Dez Bryant doesn’t wear his pants on the ground anymore.  Take Dallas and give the 3.

 

New England  @ NYJ (+7)

I usually don’t like to take Road teams on holidays.  However, the Patroits are a bunch of cheating bastards.  Their coaching staff has all the collective humanity and decency of Darth Vader’s ventilator.  I don’t like this game and might go the other way if it were a 7.5 spread.  However, the Jets need Fat Rex in order to win anything and he looks like Icabod Crane now after a season of dealing with the Dirty Sanchez and the Tebow hype machine.  Plus, New York Jets fans are idiots.  Take the evil Empire and give the 7 today.

Broncos v. Chargers. Week 11

There is a scene from the movie “Patton” in which the general ticks off all of the reasons that a German winter offensive toward the Meuse was unlikely to the point of near impossibility before the Battle of the Bulge.  When he completes the very long and logical list detailing just why the German could not and would not attack the Allied forces, he finishes by saying:  “Therefore I believe that is exactly what they are going to do.”

I feel the same way about the upcoming game against the Chargers.  Every possible indication points to a Broncos victory:

1)       We are at home

2)      We are a team that gets better each week

3)      The Chargers look to be getting shittier and shittier with each passing moment

4)      We have Payton Manning who is famous for not allowing his team to come out flat in games they should win.

5)      They have Phillip Rivers who is an assface.

6)       Our defense has been kicking people in the face.

7)      The Chargers only give up less than 30 to teams named “The Browns”.

8)      Norv Turner and his players are so uptight you couldn’t force a greased BB up their butts.  They collapse the moment things get tough

9)      We are playing loose and confidently and routinely overcome adversity.

All these things having been said, I cannot shake the feeling we are due for a shocking loss.

Assuage me friends!

Catch 22 in 2012:  The GOP and the Presidency

I’m not a political junkie.  I don’t attend party rallies, constantly post my opinions in social media, or harangue the kids at my daughter’s bus stop.

I listen to sports talk and music, not to Rush Limbaugh or Ed Shultz. 

It is because of my position and preferences in life (and perhaps also because of my appreciation of history) that I am free of the group-think, mob-like mentality that plagues political zealots who spend their days boldly preaching their particular brand of gospel to adoring choir members.

Here is the plain truth:  The GOP is doomed when it comes to presidential elections now and for the foreseeable future unless serious changes are made.

Even setting aside the Hoover-esque way that Americans continue to blame Bush for all of our economic woes fully 4 years later , there is no way this election should have even ben close much less a victory for President Obama.

The failure of the GOP in this Presidential election (and almost certainly all that will follow) boils down to 2 simple words:  Social Issues.

Say what you will about the Religious Right, but they are vocal, motivated, and committed to their beliefs at a level matched only by the extreme pacifists and environmental contingents of the left. 

Sadly, and perhaps fatally, for the GOP, the ferocity of this group’s zeal is matched only by a financial footprint in the Republican coalition that far exceeds their actual numbers.

Republican candidates for Senate seats or Presidential office, desperate for the money to compete with well-funded Democrats who often enjoy the support of deep pocketed labor unions, are forced to cast their lot with people whose uncompromising social agenda is distasteful to some in their own party and loathed by most of the Independents whose vote they need to remain competitive.

The funding  problems faced by GOP candidates who do not kowtow to those banging the social issues drum is further compounded by the Religious Right’s propensity to abandon candidates who do not share their social zeal by staying away from the polls or threatening a third party split-off (See McCain, John: 2008).

Once a candidate has the firm support of his/her own party, the key to election rests with finding positions that are acceptable to one’s base without alienating the Independent or moderate voter.  This particular fence is much harder to straddle for candidates on the right as their positions on social issues have a tendency to alienate specific voting blocks (women and gays in particular) and are offensive to many educated independent voters.

For the last 4 years, GOP candidates enjoying large leads in their races at the outset have crashed to earth in spectacular fireballs under an onslaught of TV adds highlighting their stance on social issues. 

For example, in 2010 in Colorado, Republican Ken Buck initially enjoyed a 5-7 point lead over incumbent Senator Michael Bennett.  During the greatest economic crisis in the last half century and when fellow senators and congresspeople of the left were being repudiated by voters across the country for forcing Obamacare down the throats of a choaking electorate, Bennett’s camp pursued the single minded purpose of putting Buck’s social issues positions on display.

No commercials about Buck’s business acumen, positions on foreign affairs or energy policy.  Just a steady drumbeat of Buck’s right-wing social issues positions.   When the smoke cleared, a comfortable lead had evaporated into a loss and the Democrats retained yet another seat.

Michael Castle, a shoe-in for the Delaware seat, was defeated in the GOP primary for not living up to the extreme right's idea of a proper candidate.  The victorious tea party stooge (a social issues conservative and little else) was soundly defeated by a self-proclaimed socialist in the general election.  The insistence on running un-electable candidates simply because they subscribe to a specific line of religious conviction shows how obtuse zealots are regarding legislative politics and committees.

Even in this last election, I could not find a single intelligent person who could claim with any semblance of a straight face that President Obama and his entourage possessed an understanding and appreciation for economics anywhere near that which Mitt Romney brought to the table.   Almost without fail, independent voters who went for Obama cited the social issues platform of the right as their primary reason for avoiding Romney.  It was not a vote against Romney or fiscal conservatism, but a vote against a party that brings too many personal beliefs to their platform that run contrary to a largely secular independent voting block and then battling so vociferously for these positions that it creates the idea that vital issues such as the economy are of secondary importance.

Listen, I know that many existing Democrats are not going to switch parties and vote GOP under just about any circumstance.  I also know that a large number of self-described “Independents” are already firmly in the camp of one party or another.

However, elections in most Presidential races come down to a small percentage of ballots one direction or another in a series of swing states.  The GOP must find a way to grab a percentage of an ever growing minority electorate.  They must cast aside the impression that they serve the interests of a bunch of bible-thumping chauvinists who adhere to archaic and foolish ideas of female subservience.  Above all, they must find a way of shedding the albatross of social issues from their neck without causing oversensitive fanatics with copious amounts of financial resources and zeal to “take their ball and go home.”

In order to avoid joining the Whigs, Know-Nothings, and Bull Moose on the ash-heap of history, the GOP should continue to trumpet fiscal responsibility, personal accountability, small government, and a robust national defense.  However the following changes to the platform should be made immediately:

1)       Effectively immediately, the GOP ends all opposition to government sanctioned same-sex civil unions.  Conversely (firm in our belief in the separation of church and state), we do not believe that religious institutions should be compelled to perform or condone these unions.

2)      It is the party’s position that using abortion as a means of birth control is abhorrent.  However, we recognize that there is no justice in absolutism.  There is a major difference in allowing women access to medication that prevents eggs from attaching to the uterine wall then in allowing someone 32 weeks into a pregnancy to abort a viable child.  Effective immediately, we propose to drop opposition to all preventative birth control including morning-after pills.  Moreover, we grudgingly cease opposition to a woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy in the very early stages.  In return, a ban on late term abortions must be passed in all cases aside from danger to the mother.

3)      Marijuana is a gateway drug.  So are cigarettes.  So is alcohol.  We agree to legalize and regulate marijuana and industrial hemp production. 

--Prohibition didn’t work and neither does the marijuana ban.  When’s the last time you ever heard of someone smoking up and beating their wife or knocking their kids around?  Have you ever read of a pot smoking hippie breaking into houses desperate for a fix and murdering the inhabitants to steal a few nickels for their next score?  Not all drugs are created equal.  Use the freed up resources to crack down on the dangerous stuff and those that pedal it.  Legalization would be a boon for the economy (if not overtaxed and regulated), cripple the Mexican drug cartels (reducing crime), eliminate the need to harvest forests for paper use, and create a new and more efficient agricultural sector.

4)      We continue to oppose illegal immigration in all forms.  However, we recognize the reality that millions of law-abiding and hard-working people are already in this country trying for a better life.  We wish to create a speedy path to citizenship for those without criminal records.  Moreover, we will make it our goal to reform the ICE to make legal immigration far easier and cheaper for future Americans.  In return, those in the country illegally who commit crimes or opt against undergoing the steps needed to immigrate to our great country need to be removed immediately and denied the benefits of government assistance provided to legal immigrants, residents, and citizens.  With immigration made easier and more affordable, and with the corresponding loss of government services to those who would refuse to follow the process or break the law, a substantial decline in illegal immigration can be expected.

5)      Effective Immediately, we cease opposition to all embryonic stem-cell research with the condition that only unwanted or discarded embryos (already slated for destruction) are used in the research.  Furthermore, no embryo shall ever be created with the sole purposes of testing or research.

6)      We re-affirm our belief in the importance of a separation of church and state.  Just as scholars cannot come into Sunday school classes and place stickers on bibles and religious books stating that they are only stories and not to be taken seriously, religious institutions and politicians should desist all efforts to bring religious beliefs into public schools. 

7)      Birth Control does not kill anyone.  If a doctor prescribes it to a patient, we believe that all medical facilities should be obligated to provide it or provide the cash equivalent to the patient so they can purchase it on their own.

With these ideas implemented into the platform, I believe that you would gain at least an 8-10% increase in total vote percentage.  In fact, many moderate democrats who lack the genetic flaw of Bolshevism would jump over to such a platform as it addresses some environmental concerns, no longer makes a pariah of the gay community, assuages the fears of a “war on women”, and contains a realistic yet compassionate immigration policy.

The danger in such a move for the short term is the bail out of religious zealots who are unwilling to eschew forcing their view of morality upon the electorate.  However, the influx of young and educated independents and moderate democrats would more than offset this loss and will take the teeth out of the primary campaigning tool of the left.  Let them form the “new Theocracy” party, or the “League of the righteous” and see how long it is before they become irrelevant and have to throw their weight behind the GOP yet again as the only group not openly hostile to their world views.

Of course, out of touch pundits who spend their days fielding letters from members of their congregation or phone calls from like-thinking listeners will claim that conservative social policies are the key to victory, not realizing in their delusion that moderate Republicans lose general elections not because they are too moderate, but because they are forced to embrace positions that are archaic and offensive to young, educated, and independent voters in order to secure the nomination of their party in the first place.

It is also been said with some vitriol that the country is doomed without a moral compass.  To this I ask:  Whose moral compass?  Dr. James Dobson’s?  Muhammad’s?  Buddha’s? Sean Penn’s?  Zues’? 

None of these systems of morality (with the possible exception of Sean Penn’s) is any less provable or viable than the other. 

I am sure that a gentleman in some desert community  is right now lecturing his 12 year old daughter that she must not drive, go to school, travel, marry who she loves, vote, complain about being beaten or be seen in public without full covering lest she upset the “moral compass” upon which society relies.   Moral compasses change like the seasons, and the party that shackles itself to a corpse rather than flexibly adjusting itself to meet the needs of a modern country inhabited by a more educated and worldly constituency is doomed to repeat the 2012 election in perpetuity.

It is time the GOP embrace reality, render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s and reverse the progression toward irrelevance.