The End is Nigh! Frey's Week 17 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3 ½)

Despite their recent victories over some pretty questionable teams, I still feel that Atlanta is not as good as their 13-2 record might suggest. 

Now, they are a slightly overrated 13-2 team playing a game for which they have absolutely nothing to gain by winning. 

I am leaning toward the Bucs here.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-3 ½)

I’ve suffered one too many humiliating kicks in the crotch from the Bills:  The Rams game form 2 weeks ago.  The Music City Miracle.  The 90’s….

More importantly, I cannot remember a time when any team carrying a violently angry Tim Tebow on their roster has ever failed to cover in Buffalo.

J-E-T-S-L-O-L .

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2 ½)

The most meaningless game of the season without question.  Both teams are in the playoffs already.  Both teams cannot do anything to improve or diminish their respective seedings.  Both will have to play in the first round, and both need to avoid any additional costly injuries. 

However, both teams are not playing at home.  Take the Bengals as they may play just a little harder to ensure that Cinci-tucky fans with the IQ’s of golf bags don’t boo as much.

Chicago at Detroit (+3 ½)

The catastrophic collapse of Detroit (inevitable as it may have been given the cesspool of a city in which they play) has been most enjoyable.  I mean, their best player likes to kick people in the dong. 

All the cards are on the table, the pot is right, and Chicago is all in.  Everything hinges on this one game.  Win this one and there is a very good chance they can have a postseason for redemption.  Lose and all hope is lost.

This is precisely the type of game in which Norvy Smith and his QB, Captain Sulky, eat the proverbial poo.

Dong-Kickers cover.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4 ½)

If you want to read anything about this game, go elsewhere.  We only talk about football here.

Houston at Indianapolis (+3 ½)

The return of Chuck Pagano in front of a raucous home crowd is certain to bolster the hearts and fortify the souls of the Colts! 

It should be a very interesting first half of football before Indy pulls their starters and prepares for their improbable playoff run.

Sorry Broncos fans.  Houston wins this one and covers.

Carolina at New Orleans (-4 ½)

Both these teams seem to be at their best when there is absolutely no pressure on them to do anything.

I think that many Saints fans are secretly hoping for a small, motivational hurricane, to get them off to a better start next year.

Should someone succeed in convincing  brainy Auburn grad Cam Newton that a victory puts them in the playoffs, I’d bet my house on New Orleans.

If “scared money never wins” and both teams know they are playing for a 40 cent pot, expect an excellent, precise game with the home team emerging victorious.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7 ½)

Well the tidal wave of rotating brilliance and buffoonery that served me so well in predicting the Giants’ fortunes finally crashed on the beaches of Baltimore last week.

Much like the Redsox fan that wandered the streets of Boston confused and without purpose after they finally won the World Series, I too must come to terms with a world that no longer makes any sense.

Oh wait!  Michael Vick is starting this week for a crappy Philly team!  It all makes sense again.  Take the Giants to cover.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6 ½)

I feel a great comfort in the fact that I have regained my self-respect and am refusing to bet on either Cleveland or the Bills to do anything other than disappoint. 

I can almost feel the stock market rebounding and the recession ending. 

I know that Pittsburgh has looked abysmal of late and that Big Ben has looked like garbage but come on man!  These are the Browns!  Recapture the natural order of things and bet Steelers here.

Green Bay at Minnesota (+3 ½)

This game will tell us much about both these teams.  Is Green Bay back to the level of excellence that made them Super bowl favorites?  Are the Vikings’ successes this season nothing more than smoke and mirrors?

For a number of reasons, Minnesota reminds me of last year’s Broncos with a slightly less crappy QB and a superior running back.  This makes them good enough to beat confused, injured, and fading teams like Houston but I don’t think they can hang with the resurgent Pack.

Miami at New England (-10 ½)

One of the most gratifying things about this season (aside from not having to watch the Broncos go 3-and-out 17 times each game) is that the early losses of good teams kept those ancient, annoying, overrated 1972 Dolphins hacks from polluting the airwaves. 

As much as the 1972 Dolphins were overrated, the current incarnation of the Dolphins is not overrated. They’re just not that good and everyone knows this.

The Pats did not handle their business particularly well last week against the Jags but if one thing can be said about the Patriots it is that they cheat and are scum.  I also think they want to head into the postseason without the specter of struggling against 2 crappy teams in a row hanging over their shoulders.

Oakland at San Diego (-4 ½)

The Admiral Akbar Game of the Week. You know the drill. Click Here

Oakland is on the road, losers of 11 games, and fiercely debating whether to start Tyrell Pryor or Matt Leinart in place of the injured Carson Palmer.

How can any losing team faced with choosing between death by impaling and death by evisceration be only a 4 ½ point underdog on the road? 

Akbar my friends.  Akbar.

As I am wont to do, I’ll fall into the trap.  Give me the Bolts.

Arizona at San Francisco (-14 ½)

Arizona may be the only team in the NFL (aside from this week’s Raiders) where Tim Tebow would be an upgrade at the QB position. 

As a fan of excellence, watching a talent like Larry Fitzgerald languish in QB purgatory causes me great sadness.  Somebody needs to launch a “Free the Irishman” campaign and get him to come here to Denver.

San Francisco needs this game far too badly to show up flat.  49ers roll and roll big.  The Cardinals are so bad that even their garbage time +/- is crappy.


Kansas City at Denver (-15 ½)

I'm gonna jump right into the gambler's fallacy here.   Week after glorious week I keep predicting a Broncos win but a back-door cover by our opponent.  My friends, this is just a ton of points to lay down to any division opponent, particularly one with a stout running game on what is forecast to be a very cold day. 

If we lose this game, I'll tatoo a picture of Brady Quinn on my buttocks but I just don't like the number this week. 

31-16 looks really plausible right now. 

St. Louis at Seattle (-10 ½)

My goodness what the hell happened up in Seattle?  I don’t know what’s more unheard of, a point differential of +120 in 3 games or the fact that a player actually won a PED appeal.

There are some possible seeding ramifications here and while the Rams are indeed an underrated and well-coached opponent, I see no reason to start doubting a team with such a powerful home presence and a coach that calls fake punts when ahead by 62 points.

Seahawks cover the 10 ½.

Dallas at Washington (-3 ½)

This is the classic example of how historical trends are going to be both re-affirmed and broken regardless of the result of the game.

If Dallas wins, it sends Shanahan to yet another late defeat as the home favorite to deny him a playoff spot but also disrupts the tendency of Dallas to fade late, miss the playoffs, and fire their coach.

If the Redskins win, Shanahan finally gives history the finger and wins a game he is supposed to win and goes to the playoffs while Dallas fades late, misses the playoffs, and fires their coach.

The current composition of the entire Cowboy’s franchise hinges upon this game but Mike Shanahan is turning more crimson by the minute.  Redskin time!

Last Week:  13-3

Season Record against the spread: 133-107