Cincinnati at Philadelphia (+3 ½)
Maybe it’s because the memory of the Icky-Shuffle always brings me great mirth during the Yule season, but I seem to be leaning Bengals a lot of late. Cincy plays great on the road (4-2) and while Foles looked great last week, he put up those numbers against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Playing in front of those Philistines in the “City of Brotherly Love” always makes the eagles trip over their own dongs. I like the Bengals to rebound and cover this week.
New York at Atlanta (-1 ½)
2 of my existing theories are running into each other this week. On one hand, I have the “NY alternates between bed-crapping and ass-kicking from week to week.” On the other, I have my “Atlanta kind of sucks for a 11-2 team” theory. Both played out perfectly last week. The line is small, the Falcons are at home and (I suspect) may have less of an inflated opinion of themselves after the previous week. While the Giants have a tendency to show up big in big games against good teams, it’s bed-shitting week. Atlanta covers.
Green Bay at Chicago (+2 ½)
The Bears simply cannot seem to beat anyone that doesn’t suck. Green Bay had their “we played like arse” game last week and still won the so they have been sufficiently scared without ruining their momentum. I swear I saw Lovey Smith sporting a “Norv Turner” look last week. 2 ½ points isn’t much to give here. If the Pack wins, they’ll do it by more than a field goal. The Bears prefer epic collapse to nail-biting losses. Take the Green here and give the points.
Washington at Cleveland (-1 ½)
If RG III isn’t gimping around with a bad leg there is no way I make this pick. None. I can’t believe I am saying this, but Cleveland’s defense is much better than Baltimore’s and I think that Cousins (or a gimpy RGIII) is going to struggle here. I sense a very close game and that half point may hose me here, but I feel a 20-17 Browns win coming on unless Shurmurr does something really, really dumb again. I give this only 1 chance in 3 though. Did I just take both the Browns and the Bengals on consecutive weeks? May God have mercy on my soul……
Minnesota at St. Louis (-2 ½)
The Rams are quietly having a pretty solid season and seem to absolutely feast on teams with good running attacks and less than stellar QB’s. AP may get his 100 yards yet again, but it will take him more than 20 carries to do so. I would probably lean toward Minnesota on a neutral field, but, as I am fond of saying, Ponder sucks. If the Vikes have to throw a bunch, this won’t be nearly as close as the line suggests. Jeff Fisher excels at extracting mediocrity out of refuse. I like the refuse to cover at home.
Jacksonville at Miami (-7 ½)
I have a rule when betting: Don’t ever take a dog-shit team with a rookie QB and give up any more than 6 ½ points. I don’t even care if they are playing the Chiefs. This may be teaser fodder but it’s good for little else. Jags to cover please.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-3 ½)
At this stage in the game, the Saints have little else to play for other than to rinse the foul taste of eating crap from their maws. I like Tampa’s offense and think they may be going places in the long run, but they just made Nick Foles look like Warren Moon from Super Tecmo Bowl. Crappiest pass D in the league on the road against Drew Brees? It’s not Rocket Surgery. Take the Saints.
Denver at Baltimore (+2 ½)
This is a tough game for many reasons. Denver sucks in Baltimore and the Ravens do not suck in Baltimore. On the other hand, Payton Manning isn’t Tebow/Orton/Greise/Plummer/Cutler. Suggs and Lewis may play this week providing a great deal of leadership and esprit de corps, but Ray Lewis isn’t Ray Lewis anymore. You know who is Ray Lewis? Von Miller. Crap…..I don’t know…tough line also…..I’ll just do the reverse jinx and take the Ravens.
Indianapolis at Houston (-7 ½)
That’s a big line for a team that just got punked by the Patriots. A really big line. There are 2 primary possibilities that will determine this game in my estimation::
1) The Texans are like bullies who just transferred schools (or like Mike Tyson). Once the aura of fear is lifted from them, they fold quicker than Superman on laundry day.
2) They get super pissed about last week’s ass-kicking and take it out on a rookie (albeit skilled) QB on their home field and regain their self-respect.
These guys aren’t the Cowboys and followed up their loss to the Packers with verve so I’ll take option #2 this week.
Seattle at Buffalo (+5 ½)
How come nobody ever takes me up on my request to punch me in the face whenever I take the Bills? It’s a free punch in the face. I am sure there is someone out there besides my spouse who would like to avail themselves of this opportunity.
Well you missed your chance. No Bills this week. The only chance they have to even keep it close is if the Seahawks are so shocked by running into a team that is not the Cardinals (coupled with ingesting some room-temperature Canadian beef) that they actually die right there on the field.
Detroit at Arizona (+5 ½)
Yet again, Detroit managed to take certain victory and turn it into a gigantic pile of “we’re a bunch of losers from a dumbass cesspool city”. Fortunately, they play the Cardinals this week. Arizona may be the only team in the country that I would take to beat the CU Buffs by less than 28. Even a bunch of jack-wagons like Detroit can’t #$%& this one up. Can they?
Seems trappish but I’m taking the Lions here and laying the points.
Carolina at San Diego (-2 ½)
With his last dying gasp, Norv reaches from his death bed and screws over his team by jacking up their draft position. The safest bet on the board is that Norv will hose over the Chargers and their fans and the best way to that now is for this carcass of a coach to win out. Besides, Carolina got their big win last week and Cam loves himself some let-down games. Take the Bolts secure in the knowledge that San Diego fans will certainly get “Norved”.
Pittsburgh at Dallas (+1 ½)
If the same Dallas team that beat up on the Giants and persevered with great effort against the Bengals shows up for this game I like the Cowboys to win outright here.
If my Aunt had a penis she would be my Uncle.
Big Ben recovers and so do the Steelers.
Kansas City at Oakland (- 2 ½)
If I had a European friend who I thought was too much of a sissy to watch the NFL and I never wanted him or her to dishonor our country by claiming to like football I’d have them watch this game. I don’t even want to pick someone on this game because it feels stupid to do so. I guess I’ll take the Chefs because the Coliseum is the shittiest place I have ever been.
San Francisco at New England (-5 ½)
I still don’t like the idea of replacing a QB who had just won NFC player of the week when they come back from a concussion. Harbaugh is like that suave gigolo we all knew in college who would routinely date hot chicks and then dump them because he knew he was the shit. Then he got old and fat and ended up selling insurance. Don’t confuse the ineptitude of his predecessors with current coaching brilliance. The Niners have the feel of a team on the way down.
Conversely, New England is a bunch of cheating, worthless, lobster-buggerers. They are also playing much better right now. As a Broncos fan I desperate hope for a SF win but I’m not holding my breath. The Lobster-Humpers win and cover.
NY Jets at Tennessee (-1 ½)
If your fantasy football season does not hinge on the performance of a player from one of these 2 teams, shame on you for watching this game. Shame.
Titans at home to cover.
Last week: 6-10
Season Record against the spread 113-95
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