Atlanta at Detroit (+3 ½)
Week after week, I would watch the almost certainly victorious Lions do something unconscionably stupid resulting in defeat. Pundits across the country would invariably ask, “How the hell did they just lose that game?” I believe I finally have the answer to this omnipresent question. They suck. Falcons win and cover.
New Orleans at Dallas (-3 ½)
Dallas is like the Falcons team leading up to their loss to Carolina. These guys are winning games that they have no business winning (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati) and struggled against a rookie QB at home (Philly). New Orleans played great last week (defensively for a change) and is coming into this game feeling pretty damn good about themselves. The Cowboys are one of only a handful of teams who are crappier at home than on the road (I suspect it has something to do with playing in a stadium teeming with big pageant hair and blue makeup) so I think it stays close with Dallas winning on a late field goal. Fear the half point! Saints cover.
Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5)
The Titans forced 5 turnovers (without committing one) last week at home against the dog-butt Jets and only won by 4. With that little piece of history as a point of measure, they could force 37 turnovers and still lose to the Packers in Lambeau. They probably won’t even get half that many so I’ll go ahead and take the Packers to cover here in a game they need for seeding purposes.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (+6 ½)
The Admiral Akbar game of the week Click here to see what I mean. Can anyone tell me why a 2 win team who just got shut out by the only team in the NFL as crappy as they are is less than a touchdown dog to a hungry 9-5 team desperate for a spot in the playoffs? I suspect a number of bookmakers in Vegas could fill me in here but my wife frowns upon my having such acquaintances. I’m gonna go ahead and fall into the trap. Colts to cover.
Buffalo at Miami (-4 ½)
Following a home game in Toronto, the Chan Gailey farewell tour continues in sunny Florida. Following the blowout last week, a concerned Buffalo fan (I guess he was a fan. I mean who the hell else talks about the Bills if they don’t have a rooting interest?) expressed despair and surprise at the fact that people think Gailey should relinquish his play-calling duties and focus on some of the more high-level management duties assigned to a head coach. The logic behind this incredulity is centered around the fact that the current OC has never called plays before.
Only the Bills will defend the hiring and current employ of a head coach of a losing team who brings aboard an Offensive Coordinator who doesn’t know how to coordinate an offense. I can’t possibly do anything but take a mediocre Miami team to cover here.
San Diego at NY Jets (-2 ½)
I have been gleefully following the baboonery surrounding the Jets franchise for months now. Watching the Tebow-philes explode in righteous indignation when it was announced that Timmy Try-Hard has been passed over by a 7th round pick who has only fielded a few meaningful NFL snaps is like an early Christmas gift.
A coworker of mine was wondering despairingly why the Jets traded for Tebow if they had no intention of playing him. Easy answer here. They realized the same thing that any savvy football fan without a religious axe to grind already knew. Denver’s playoff run was due to luck and a heroic defense, not to a guy who tosses more dirtballs than the bouncer at Hooters.
I was thinking about making this the Admiral Akbar game of the week and then I remembered that San Diego is still coached by Norv Turner. I’ll fall into this trap also. San Diego wins outright.
Washington at Philadelphia (+4 ½)
2 weeks ago, I wrote that Mike Shannahan was eventually going to be the same color as the warrior on the Redskins' helmet and that rest of the league had best beware. Check it: It has finally happened. Redskins to cover without question.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4 ½)
I can’t stop picking the Bengals. It’s like I have this horrible, diseased, gaudily tiger-striped monkey on my back. Well I’m not gonna beat my monkey this week and neither are the Steelers. I am beginning to believe that last year’s playoff loss to Denver was the first sign that the sun is setting on the Pittsburgh Empire. I don't know if Cincy wins outright but I do believe they’ll cover the 4 ½.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3 ½)
What the hell happened to Tampa? One minute they are an offensive juggernaut playing with purpose and confidence, and the next minute their saying, “Wait a second! We’re Tampa! We can’t have this nonsense!” and started playing shitty.
I suspect that they are favored because they can run ball and stymie the opponents' running game.
Saint Louis just got torched by the Vikings on the ground and is mediocre at best in the air where Tampa is weak. While I hope this is finally the game where some team throws a quick pass over the top from their victory formation when Tampa lunges in like a bunch of jack-wagons, I’m going to lean Tampa here.
Oakland at Carolina (- 8 ½)
Under normal circumstances, this is a huge line for a 5-9 team playing against a 4-10 squad. However, history is beginning to suggest that Cam Newton plays great when games are meaningless. From what I can tell, no game is more meaningless or disinteresting than this one . Therefore, Cam will explode. Given the fact that the Raiders couldn’t score in a 5 cent whorehouse with a pocket full of nickels, I foresee a rout.
New England at Jacksonville (+14 ½)
It causes me physical pain to take a road team to cover a 14 ½ point spread but not here. The cheating bastard Patriots love to take out the frustrations of a prior loss by kicking craphole teams while they are down in an effort to regain their self-esteem. Like the schoolyard bully who got a thrashing from an older sibling the night before, I think New England storms over to the Kindergarten playground and starts thumping skulls until their thirst for evil is satiated. Brady throws 3 TD’s passes in the 4th quarter when they are already up by 24 in order to make his wife amorous again. The A-hole cheating Patriots cover this one.
Minnesota at Houston (-7 ½)
Here is Wade Phillips’ chance to prove his quality. Logic demands that if the Texans give up a hundred yards to the immortal Vick Ballard of the Colts last week then AP will run for over 13,000 yards this weekend. Houston wants this game. Houston NEEDS this game. I think they stack the line, try everything within their power to contain AP, and dare Ponder to do something, anything, in the air. With Percy Harvin on IR, the Vikes just don’t have the weapons to air it out with any consistency. I like Houston in something like a 30-17 game.
Cleveland at Denver (-13 ½)
Yes. That’s right. I’m taking the Browns again. I would bet my house that Manning does not allow the Broncos to totally let down and that a win is imminent, but Denver has a tendency to call off the dogs and let teams feast on garbage in the 4th quarter. I believe the line may finally be big enough for Cleveland to back-door a cover instead of my arse after last week’s fiasco against the Skins.
Chicago at Arizona (+5 ½)
I have 2 reasons to take the Bears here:
1) Like the Cornhuskers in college ball, Chicago loses the games they are supposed to lose, loses the games they might be expected to win, and absolutely destroys teams that suck. Arizona most decidedly falls into the “suck” category.
2) The Cardinals cannot possibly be expected to be competitive 2 weeks in a row. They are the Cardinals.
Bears to win and cover.
New York Giants at Baltimore (+ 2 ½)
No detailed analysis here. Last week was bed-crapping week for the Giants. This week is ass-kicking week (See picks from week 14 and 15 for detailed reasoning). It is the order of things. NYG to win outright.
San Francisco at Seattle (+ 1 ½)
This game should be a blast to watch. 2 Rookie QB’s, 2 great defenses, and 2 teams with much on the line. I noticed that the weather is supposed to be cold, wet, and generally crappy and initially wanted to give the advantage to Seattle when I remembered that cold, wet, and generally crappy is not altogether unknown in San Francisco.
Richard Sherman will not yet be suspended for PED’s so I like the Seahawks to give Kaepernik a very hard time in a very loud and hostile stadium. It’ll be close, but I think Seattle pulls it off. Plus, I’m benching Seattle’s defense in my fantasy championship so they are certain to have a historically good week.
Last week: 7-9
Season Record against the spread 120-104
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