When I first watched last week’s episode, I thought that Kat played the game with her head firmly jammed up her own butt.
In retrospect, however, I have less issue with what she did than in the manner in which she did it.
Kat is on the weakest tribe, was outside the dominant alliance before the split, and was unlikely to survive more than a week post-Vytas when they would invariably get their ass kicked at the next challenge.
Some might suggest that Rasputin’s spouse would be the next to go and that Kat could have made the merge with a little luck but I am beginning to think that Laura B’s awkward baboonery may actually be playing in her favor.
I half-expect her to get lost on the way to the next immunity challenge or to ask Probst, “Who are you? Where’s the regular guy?” at the next tribal council.
In any event, Kat probably sense that she needed to make some sort of move and decided upon the “shove a square peg into a round hole and beat the crap out of it” plan.
Tina loves having someone like Monica around to draw friendly fire and Kat’s decision to abandon ship before hitting the iceberg just re-confirmed the validity of that belief.
Tina should have been your target, not Monica.
Culpepper’s wife is feeling pretty lonely right now after Biff’s ouster, and would likely harbor both jealousy and fear when it comes to the fact that one of her tribe-mates gets to sit around plotting with her loved one all day.
Monica would believe Tina to be capable of duplicity with her family member because that is exactly what Monica would do if she had been re-united with Brad.
Kat should have been quietly but consistently reminding Monica how dangerous it was for Tina and Katie to be the only 2 family members sharing a tribe. Perhaps she should have reminded Monica that, once Vytas left, it was only logical that Tina would feverishly begin scrambling to usurp one of them in favor of her daughter.
Laura B is a clown with neither alliance nor loved one so the obvious target would be Monica and/or Kat.
But since that didn’t happen, Kat simply told Tina that Monica strategizes too much, lied after she got ratted out, and then launched into a “I got your back” monologue at tribal that would do nothing but antagonize anyone over the age of 23.
When confronted by Monica, she should have confirmed Tina’s story, voiced her reservations about excessive plotting (mentioning how insecure and frightened it makes her), and then gone straight to Tina.
Her only hope at that point is to suggest that Monica confirmed her suspicions by selfishly putting a target on Tina as an untrustworthy friend who betrays everyone’s confidence at the drop of a hat.
It probably wouldn’t have worked, but when you chose the wrong path and the bridge starts to collapse behind you, you can either run forward and take a chance or cower on ground shouting “I got your back!”
I can’t believe I rated that nincompoop #2 last week……
And now…..Ranking Time!
#1) Gervase
He’s just as powerful as Tyson but without the target.
Gervase seems perfectly content to allow the boisterous talker who claims to have no beliefs pit himself publically against Aras and suffer whatever slings and arrows may fly his way.
The tribe is strong, he didn’t drown last episode, and Gervase is in a groove.
#2) Tyson
It looks like the shoulder is going to be OK so Tyson should hang on for a while yet.
The game just became more strategic than physical with the merge but his solid alliance with Gervase, coupled with the fact that his tribe couldn’t lose a challenge if they summoned the spirit of Sheri from last season, will get him to the merge.
The game just became more strategic than physical with the merge but his solid alliance with Gervase, coupled with the fact that his tribe couldn’t lose a challenge if they summoned the spirit of Sheri from last season, will get him to the merge.
It might be an error to plot so fervently against Aras when you won’t see a tribal council for at least 2 weeks as it marks you as a dangerous player and gives Aras a chance to find an escape route.
#3) Tina
Tina is in a very tricky spot.
Her tribe sucks and almost certainly have a meeting with Jeff Probst tonight so someone has to go.
If she wants a shot at a million bucks and to take control now, she needs to knock out Monica and keep Vytas.
1) It protects her daughter from falling victim to an alliance vote at the merge.
2) She obtains a valuable ally in Vytas who has proven to be a very resourceful player.
3) It ingratiates both her and Katie to Aras, who might join in once he realizes that Tyson is gunning for him.
If she knocks out Vytas, then she’s left with a skittish Monica who will feel compelled to split the mom and daughter pair and a baboonish Laura B who is quickly becoming the person everyone wants to keep around.
Getting rid of Vytas may work out OK if Monica decides to wipe out the harmless Laura, but it places her fate (and Katie’s) into the hands of a Culpepper.
If she wants a million bucks for her and/or her kid, it’s move time. Then she can buy like 3.7 Vytas’ for her daughter at her leisure.
#4) Caleb
With Colton gone, he can fade back into the shadows.
His arbitrary decision to eliminate Brad raised some eyebrows but, well, it was Brad so nobody but Monica cares.
He’s safe and will almost certainly make the merge.
#5) Katie
The editors never talk to this chick so she’s pretty safe if for no other reason.
There are, however, other advantages to her current position:
1) She has no power and, hence is no threat.
2) Her mommy will do everything possible to protect her.
There is not a single scenario that I can imagine aside from Vytas schmoozing and then backstabbing her that gets her off the island.
#6) Ciera
Wiley Coyote climbs the board yet again!
As the least threatening member of the dominant tribe, she can sit back quietly and feel which way the wind is blowing, safely casting her vote with the majority.
With Kat gone, the fear of her forming an all-girl alliance at the merge is lessened so she is a woman without any target.
Lets see what she receives in the mail from ACME this week….
#7) Hayden
Even if these guys lose a challenge, I cannot envision any scenario in which Hayden is targeted unless he becomes the only guy on the island who figures out that Tyson and Gervase steal coconuts and gets in a fight about it before the merge.
I suppose he can make himself too chummy with Aras but he’s not as dumb as Kat.
I sense that this guy has some staying power. On a side note, I do hope he fires Kat at the Redemption challenge.
#8) Aras
Master Shifu gets #8 because his tribe cannot possibly lose to 3 old ladies, a chick who suffers from exhaustion after turning a puzzle wheel, and his weaker brother.
If they lose, however, Aras is done.
#9) Monica
Monica is playing on borrowed time. While it was impolitic to point it out, Kat was correct in that she schemes a bit more than necessary at inappropriate times. Her game is starting to remind me of that blonde chick Andrea that pitched woo with dipshit Eddie last season.
In her eagerness to play the game, she isn’t protecting her pieces.
If Tina’s smart, Monica goes home this week. I am just not convinced that it will happen.
#10) Rasputin's Wife
She must do 1 of 3 things:
1) Somehow convince everyone on her tribe to keep her instead of Vytas.
2) Hop on board with knocking out Monica.
3) See to it that the tribe wins the next challenge.
Since option #3 is a non-starter, Laura must embrace one of the first 2 options, both of which are pretty viable at this stage in the game.
#11) Vytas
This merge killed him.
Vytas is playing an incredibly intelligent game, but much like poker, if your cards constantly suck, you will eventually lose.
He’s not out of it yet, but he has the worst odds for survival right now.
Redemption Island:
a) John
I wouldn’t want to get booted off Survivor and have Candice yell at me either. John stays. But hey man, give the clue to Laura B who may actually do something funny with it.
b) Laura M
She’s smarter than Kat and….uh….smarter than Kat
c) Kat
If the next challenge is a belching contest I like her odds. Otherwise, she’s likely done.
Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game
Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
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