Just before last week’s immunity challenge, I wanted to voice my belief that the newbie tribe was finally facing a challenge they had a chance of actually winning.
1) There was no puzzle to confound self-described puzzle guru Cierra.
2) The challenge involved sliding on your butt until you bumped into a big ring, then tossing it around a pipe. I am pretty sure this is a high school sport in Butthole, Mississippi or wherever Caleb is from, giving him and his tribe a huge advantage.
3) While there did not appear to be running water, the slide was moist. This creates a very real drowning fear in Gervase, disrupting his aim.
Sadly, I did not voice my prediction aloud so I didn’t gain any extra credibility with the spouse.
Following tribal council, I was, initially, more than a little skeptical about Aras’ decision to vote Laura M. off the tribe.
Her puzzle skills are solely responsible for 2 challenge victories and merge time still looks to be a few weeks out given the numbers.
From a strategic perspective, Aras’ best hope is to lay low and let other players garner the bulk of the attention. Laura’s puzzle skills might make her a tempting target post-merge so, in effect, Aras needed to exert control over strategy, play a blindside card, create an enemy who may actually make it back in the game, and announce himself as not only a physical force, but a strategic one.
It is doubtful Rasputin’s wife would have come anywhere near winning her way out of Redemption Island and anyone who watched the agonizingly awkward way she handled herself before the tribal council cannot possibly fear her as a potential antagonist.
Sometimes, Yoga man, the easy vote IS the smartest one.
Then they showed in the previews that there is going to be a tribe swap and my argument goes to crap.
Tribe swap week is always the hardest to predict and if they decide to re-absorb the Redemption Island people into the game everything listed below becomes bunk.
Since it already sucks bad enough to try and muddle my way through the unknown, I am just going to write as though the redemption people stay put.
Ranking Time!
Ranking Time!
#1) Tina
This swap works great for Tina. The math suggests that in all likelihood she’ll end up on a majority no matter which tribe she lands upon.
Also just as likely is that any tribe she lands on will wish to seize upon grand opportunity to vote out a serious physical threat (i.e. a dude) and not a 55 year old woman no matter how often she embarrasses her incompetent daughter in challenges.
#2) Kat
It matters not where Kat falls either. She’s not the strongest, she’s not the smartest, and she butts heads with Monica Culpepper. All of these things work to her advantage this week.
I mean, who is going to say, “Man that Kat lady just scares the crap out of me. Plus, I can’t stand the fact that she is enemies with that one bastard’s wife”
Unless it discovered that she was a camp guard in Poland in 1944 or is a Kansas City Chiefs fan, there is not a single compelling reason post-tribe swap to write this chick’s name down.
#3) Gervase
The second half of the Yogi/Boo-Boo alliance has to get the nod here this week over the Nordic-looking guy who also steals coconuts.
Even if Lady Luck totally abandons Boo-Boo and he ends up in the minority on a tribe filled with sissies, his early bastardy and incompetence in water shield him from votes in a way that Tyson cannot hope to enjoy.
#4) Rasputin's Wife
Is there anyone on the island less threatening than this woman? The clumsy and inept way that she bumbled around camp talking crazy before the last vote actually caused me to become embarrassed as I watched the TV.
It was like watching Ralph Wiggum pitch woo to Lisa Simpson because she was the only one nice to him at school. Everyone familiar with the situation cringes inwardly at the attempt, but the perpetrator seems oblivious to the scale of their baboonery.
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| I wonder if she learned how to be so suave from Rupert? |
I rate Rasputin’s wife ahead of Tyson because of how harmless she is in both the short and long-term but behind Gervase because of the annoyance factor.
#5) Tyson
Yogi is reasonably safe for no other reason than simple mathematics. It is likely that he will have the numbers to survive a tribe swap even though he is a more tempting target than Gervase.
However, if the unthinkable happens and he ends up in the minority on the aforementioned tribe of candy-asses and the other guy with him is not named “Aras”, Tyson is screwed.
Should this happen and his new tribe loses the immunity challenge, I would seriously play up the shoulder injury. Act like it has gotten so bad that he may end up quitting in a few days, tricking the other tribe into delaying his snuffing with the thought that they may get a freebie later.
#6) Monica
If Brad comes back into the game this week Monica is screwed. Everyone with half a brain knows that she is going to become the loudmouth’s lapdog.
But since I am laboring under the belief that Redemption will stay as is, she should be pretty safe.
However, if she ends up in the minority, there are a lot of people from the other tribe who think her husband is Hitler so they may wish to take a shot at his ticket back to power.
#7) Aras
And so it comes to the strongest and most likable member of the dominant tribe and alliance. Even his own people want to see him go on some level.
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| Aras' prowess will bring his brother down too. |
It is actually a good thing for Master Shifu that the numbers are not more skewed in his favor as turncoats will be less inclined to wipe him out with the knowledge that still have an insurmountable numerical superiority.
Still, he has some protection for the moment but it would not shock me to see him snuffed through either bad luck or treachery.
#8) Katie
Like everyone else on the list from this point forward, Katie is in the minority.
But just as her lack of male genitalia plagued her early on when the men formed a short-lived cadre, it is now a blessing. It also doesn’t hurt that her mother is still around to protect or inform her as needed.
While it is clear that Katie’s only chance to win this game is if everyone else dies, that doesn’t mean she can’t parlay her wussiness into a couple more weeks of rice and mediocrity.
#9) Ciera
This woman is like Wile E. Coyote. No matter how many times she falls off a cliff and you give her up for dead, she’s somehow back the next week for another round of comical failures.
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| Don't worry. She'll be back next week. Again. |
I rate her below Katie (for the moment) due to her laziness at camp and the fact that she lacks a protector for the moment with her Mom on Redemption Island.
Still, the fact that everyone seems to like her so much despite her ineptitude in challenges and poor work ethic suggests that she may have serious skills when it comes to the social game. Watch out for the Coyote!
#10) Caleb
"Enemies make dangerous friends."
--Cardassian Proverb
In many ways, Caleb reminds me of the Soviet Red Army at the end of World War II.
In many ways, Caleb reminds me of the Soviet Red Army at the end of World War II.
You are impressed and delighted that they beat the Germans (Brad Culpepper), but you sure as hell don’t want them hanging out in your country when the war ends.
I think his ouster of the loudmouth bought him some in-game-equity with anyone not named Monica, but his unpredictability makes him a very dangerous ally.
#11) Hayden
Once the numbers diminished, he never really had a good chance.
For Hayden to survive this week, he must either:
a) Land on a tribe where he and his depleted allies somehow are in the majority
b) Be on the tribe that wins immunity
c) Find the Hidden immunity Idol
d) Wind up on a tribe with Vytas and then remind everyone what a stud Aras is.
#12) Vytas
How the mighty have fallen.
Yet again, it is likely that the ex-junkie yoga-mathematician will, in the end, get hosed by the fact that he shares parents with the golden boy (Aras).
It’s too bad the swap happened when it did because this guy is an interesting human being and I hoped he might stick around for a while so I don’t need to suffer “A Day in the Life of Katie”, or “Learn What Makes Laura B Tick”.
He has the same options as Hayden for survival except for option “D”.
Redemption Island:
a) John
Is it possible that our favorite weeping doctor can channel some of his absent spouse's bad-assery and expunge his soul of the dishonor he accrued through bad play and cry-babiness?
He can do both physical and mental challenges so I don’t think there is any way he can’t at least get second until the merge.
He can do both physical and mental challenges so I don’t think there is any way he can’t at least get second until the merge.
That having been said, he should really give that clue to someone who will not burn it. John’s gonna need allies if he can claw his way back in to the game.
b) Brad
I have a feeling that Biff from Back to the Future will not so easily be silenced. They’ve had 2 puzzle challenges in a row on redemption and unless they have a 3rd consecutive mental test, he’ll probably live to fight another day
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| Laura M. needs to make like a tree, and get out of here. |
c) Laura M
Simply put, she needs the producers to come up with some serious mental gymnastics for the redemption challenge or she’s going to be hanging with Blonde Doctor really soon.
Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game
Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
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