“Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”
--Winston S. Churchill
Well I could act like last week was an anomaly but it appears the negative inertia I started in last year’s playoffs has attached itself to me like a crazy ex-girlfriend who just found out that you landed a high-paying gig.
A record of 6-9-1 places me squarely in the same realm as the Lions, Bills, and Browns of the last 2 decades and I am not fond of the association.
Therefore, I shall begin the long process of re-establishing credibility by kicking butts this week.
Since a man is never really defeated if h learns lessons from failure, I intend to examine some recent history for each team before taking a stand.
Jets @ Patriots (-12)
What I learned last week:
New York—Even when victorious, these guys still look like a bunch of losers. If Mark Sanchez had been the season-long starter, these guys would go 0-16.
New England—It’s a damn good thing they play a bunch of candy-asses for the first 1/3 of the season or they could be looking at a 2-3 until they adjust to their new skill position players. I have also reconfirmed that Danny Amendola is actually Glass Joe from Punch Out.
New England played like crap on the road and still won. The Jets played their best game, won the turnover battle, and still needed a bonehead play to pull off a last minute win against a mediocre team at home. The Cheating SOB Patriots don’t need to film any practices this week. Take the Pats to stomp them in Gillette Stadium.
Rams @ Falcons (-7)
What I learned last week:
St. Louis—If this is 2011 or 2012, a 9 point deficit to a suckhole team like Arizona would have been an obstacle of Himalayan proportions. However, contrasting with the Rams teams of yesteryear, these guys have balls.
Atlanta—The Falcon’s O-line looks a little shaky but not quite as shaky as it may have initially appeared. With outstanding skill position players and a defense that looked at least serviceable on the road against a high-octane Saints team, I may have been premature in writing these guys off.
Early in the season (for a young team at least), it is sometimes it is better to lose a hard fought game than to win a contest in which you were outplayed by your opponent.
I think that Atlanta is pissed that they lost last week while the Rams are relieved that they won.
In any fight not involving the Italian Army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.
Falcons cover at home.
Panthers @ Bills (+2.5)
What I learned last week:
Carolina—Cam Newton still sucks against quality defenses. However, Carolina may actually have a quality defense of their own this year.
Buffalo—Even under a new coach, the Bills eschew losing in a manner that does not forcibly rip their fans’ souls right out of their butts. Until such time as management brashly offers a multi-million dollar contract extension to E.J. Manuel, he will be surprisingly competent. C.J. Spiller fantasy owners are undoubted enjoying some fine acid reflux after seeing Fred Jackson go house last week.
Hey man, if I’m at a hot craps table, I am not going to screw up the mojo by changing betting strategies. In order to deliver the coup de grace to their remaining fans, the Bills need to get stomped by the Panthers. Since they are not yet the Toronto Bills, I expect they will do just that.
Panther’s cover.
Vikings @ Bears (-6)
What I learned last week:
Minnesota—Adrian Peterson is still a badass. Christian Ponder still sucks.
Chicago—Rumors of Brandon Marshall’s minimization in the new offense has been greatly exaggerated. When Cutler feels the heat, he still runs home to momma. It also seems I may not have overbid on Matt Forte after all.
The Vikings made Reggie Bush look like Marshall Faulk last week and I see no reason why Forte cannot duplicate this effort as the Bears have a very refined screen game. If the Bears run-blitz every play (loading the box is dangerous with AP if he gets past the front 7), I do not believe that Christian Ponder, sans a play-maker like Percy Harvin, can keep it closer than a touchdown.
Daaaaa Bears.
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
What I learned last week:
Cleveland—The only difference between these guys and Buffalo is that the Browns don’t even bother trying to violate their fan base. They just go out and suck.
Baltimore—The Broncos kick ass.
Unless the Miami Dolphin are a hell of a lot better than I think they are, it appears the Browns did nothing more than slap a little makeup on a carcass. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day with these guys. Each Sunday morning, fans of the team grumpily reach over and smack the snooze button on the alarm, knowing with certainty that everything will be as it always has been.
If not for the fact that living in Cleveland has given people an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around the city would be rife with self-immolation.
If not for the fact that living in Cleveland has given people an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around the city would be rife with self-immolation.
Unlike Cleveland, I suspect that Baltimore still has some pride left despite the arse kicking they took last week.
The Ravens easily win their home opener against these chuckleheads.
Cowboys @ Chiefs (-1.5)
What I learned last week:
Dallas—The guys perplex me. For the last 4 years, I have stared at the box scores and wondered just how a team that looks so good statistically keeps losing games or squeaking by. It is now the fifth year, and the Cowboys almost lost their home opener against a division rival despite:
1) More first downs
2) Greater time of possession
3) A huge advantage in rushing yards
4) Fewer sacks allowed
5) And a turnover margin of plus-freaking-5!
Kansas City—Jacksonville is a terrible litmus test for any team (unless, of course, they lose to said Jags) but compared to Brady Quinn and Matt Cassell, Alex Smith is the Norse God of the Gridiron.
Without Quinn and/or Cassell behind center, Dallas cannot reasonably expect to get 6 turnovers and Arrowhead is a pretty tough place to play when the home team doesn't suck so I’m leaning to the Chefs here.
Redskins @ Packers (-7.5)
What I learned last week:
Washington—All of the offseason “Shanahanigans” came out to bite these guys on the ass. I've never seen a team look so flat coming out of the gates. If their Hall of Fame coach cannot be relied upon to have solid game-plans, this will be a very long season for the Beltway Boys.
Green Bay—“The Welcher” is still a stud and their slow defense is still vulnerable to mobile QB’s.
Fortunately for The Pack, RGIII is about as mobile as a drunken Bernie Kosar right now so they should be more than able to keep the Skins to around 20 points. Since Green Bay will almost certainly hang 30+ on the scoreboard, I think the home team to cover is the proper play here.
Titans @ Texans (-9)
What I learned last week:
Tennessee—My God these guys are boring to watch. The Titans’ victory last week was due more to Pittsburgh’s ineptitude than through any skill on their part. When these guys play Jacksonville I am going to seriously consider going into cryogenic stasis to ensure I don’t accidentally see any of the game.
Houston—When playing shitty teams, Matt Schaub looks great. A healthy Brian Cushing makes this defense formidable again. It is quite possible that we are only a couple weeks from the beginning of the Ben Tate regime....
Pittsburgh looked so bad last week that I cannot possibly prop up Tennessee before this game. I can't shake the feeling that the Titans are heading for a rude awakening. Houston, as a veteran team and Superbowl contender, got their early scare last week and will be playing with a Texas-sized chip on their shoulder.
Texans cover southern-style.
Dolphins @ Colts (-2.5)
What I leaned last week:
Miami—It is always a great sign when your new multi-million dollar free agent plays like crap and then bitches about the coaches. Yep. Awesome.
Indianapolis—These guys damn near cost me my eliminator pick in the first week of the season. I am going to give them a pass based solely on the fact that they were ill-prepared to face a running QB. As always, Andrew Luck looked good when it mattered.
Ryan Tannehill is most definitely not going to beat you with his feet and Mike Wallace is showing himself to be an overrated diva. If the Colts wish to be taken seriously this year, they have to put the smack down on Miami this week.
The Colts should win by a field goal or more.
Chargers @ Eagles (-7.5)
What I learned last week:
Philadelphia—Chip Kelly’s offense looked like the wave of the future in the first half. It either petered out due to fatigue in the second half or they just decided to mellow out with a 26 point lead.
San Diego—Phillip Rivers is scared of victory and can snap defeat from the jaws of victory better than anyone not named Greg Norman. I also think he may be a bit dim...
Since the Chargers trip on their own dongs and then throw up on their coaches in the 3rd and 4th quarters, it doesn't matter why the Eagles struggled in the second half last week. San Diego will be unable to exploit it.
Eagles in a romp.
Lions @ Cardinals (+.5)
What I learned last week:
Detroit—I am very glad I paid only 28 bucks against my salary cap for Matt Stafford in Fantasy this year. Suh is a cheap bastard who just can’t stop himself from being a Delta Bravo. He’s the dude who grabs the folding chair while the ref isn’t looking and then smashes an unconscious foe over the head with it.
Arizona—Well….they’re better. Now they only barely lose to mediocre teams.
Detroit is a mediocre team (until they prove otherwise). Since we have established already that an improved Arizona team now barely loses to mediocre teams, we must take the Lions to cover here as .5 points is still less than “barely.”
Saints @ Buccaneers (+3)
What I learned last week:
New Orleans—These guys just beat a team that was 13-3 last year but didn't look that great doing so. Yeah. That doesn't even make sense to me and I wrote it.
Tampa Bay—They lost to the Jets. I have no further comment.
This is my Admiral Akbar Game of the Week.
The Saints just defeated an extremely talented team that had the best record in the NFC last year. Their head coach has returned, they have a skilled motivator at defensive coordinator, and they enjoyed a drama-free offseason .
The Bucs just lost to the #$%&ing Jets.
Yep. I’ll fall for the trap game again this week.
Saints cover.
Broncos @ Giants (+4.5)
What I learned last week:
Denver—If they can come out of the gate as strong as they finish there is no hope to be had for their foes.
New York—These guys are resilient. For a team to commit 6 turnovers on the road and still fight hard enough to have a chance of winning in the end is why they are called the “Giants” and not the “Bills.”
Surprisingly, this is a pretty tough call for me. There is no way the Giants commit 6 turn overs this week and they are playing at home.
Conversely, the Broncos are not the Cowboys and will not require 6 turnovers to kick their ass.
This could end up going bad for the Broncos if they cannot generate a pass rush on Eli without bringing more than 4-5 men but I cannot see any scenario where New York can keep Denver from scoring more than 30 points.
Slight lean to the Broncos to cover here.
Jaguars @ Raiders (-5.5)
What I learned last week:
Jacksonville—These guys are horrible.
Oakland—These guys are horrible but their Quarterback can run fast.
25 years from now, I’ll be sitting by the fire with my grandson on my knee, and he’ll ask me about the most terrible event I ever witnessed. There is a 37% chance that this game will meet that criteria.
Take the Raiders here and then go shower off.
49ers @ Seahawks (-2.5)
What I learned last week:
San Francisco—I am now sold on C.K. Like Tebow he has all the intangibles. Unlike Tebow, he has tangibles.
Seattle—This Defense is stout. Even though Cam Newton crumbles under the weight of expectations, holding him to 163 yards is impressive as hell.
This is my “Gut Feeling Game of the Week.”
The 49ers dropped 33 points on the Packers and looked unstoppable offensively. Any defensive shortcomings can easily be explained by the fact that they were pitted against a stellar Green Bay offense.
On the other hand, Seattle’s offense looked like Mr. Ferly from that show Three’s Company and any defensive accomplishments can be explained by the fact that they played a choking quarterback with the IQ of a golf bag.
I cannot say why, but I think the Seahawks regain their self-respect this week and beat the 9ers by 10 or so.
Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5)
What I learned last week:
Pittsburgh—All great empires fall or fade into irrelevance. From Egypt to England, major powers age and lose their vitality, eventually to be eclipsed by upstarts. The Steelers are old, banged up, and tired from playing so many games over the last decade. They looked it last week.
Cincinnati—The Bengals are a competent team with a ton of talent but they suffer from the same blight that infects many better than average teams. They win the games they should win, and lose the games they are expected to lose.
This line is only 6.5 due solely to the fact that people cannot completely come to terms with the reality that the Steelers, much like the Ottomans in 1914, are shadows and a memory. The Bengals should win this game and they will. Easily.
Take the ugly helmets to cover.
Last Week: 6-9-1
Season: 6-9-1
Last Week: 6-9-1
Season: 6-9-1
No comments:
Post a Comment