Finally! It is Time! Fryguy's Week 1 NFL Picks

In the great circle of modern American existence, nothing so intensely rekindles hope’s flame like the beginning of the NFL season. 

Take a moment please to bask in the glory: Click here to get pumped

In fact, it is the only way that people living in craphole cities like Cleveland and Detroit can wash the collective bile from their throats after having suffered the indignity of residing in such locales for yet another year.

As a Broncos fan (may all the great powers favor them in all things), I still endure a great wound in my soul from the last game of the 2012 season. 

Much like the Kennedy Assassination or Princess Di’s untimely demise, all true fans of the beloved Donkeys (may they forever reign in supreme glory) will remember exactly where they were and what they were doing as Flacco’s lazy pop-fly sailed over our bumbling defensive secondary and into the hands of a return specialist who only catches like 6 balls a year.

And as the hopes and dreams of the local sports franchise crashed to the ground in an orgy of flames with the violence and suddenness of  a German Zeppelin, so too did my playoff predictions.

However, just as the phoenix must combust in order to emerge renewed from the blackened ashes, I intend to recapture the brilliance of my prognostications.  Failing that, I’ll just bitch a lot and make fun of teams I hate.

Let’s talk some football and make a little coin on the side shall we?

Baltimore at Denver (-8)

Week after agonizing week during the Ravens’ bullcrap playoff run, I scoffed at the notion that their underdog’s emotion and belief in destiny would drive them to the big prize.  Now the roles have been reversed.  The NFL has brazenly dragged our honor through a purple and black morass by mounting banners of Joe Flacco in our streets, stadiums, and (if the rumors be true) the bedrooms of our players' moms.

After last season’s debacle, the entire city of Denver is livid at this violation.  Emotionally, the Broncos should come out and smoke the champs like the sticky green bud that is legally dispensed from Broadway store fronts.

However, that same leafy plant and our star linebacker’s affinity for it contribute mightily to my discomfort here.  With Miller’s suspension, Dumerville’s bad fax machine, and Baily’s bum foot, Denver is down 3 pro-bowlers on the defensive side of the ball.

I think the Donkeys win this one (it is, after all, not minus-70 outside today) but 8 points is too much to give up here.

New England at Buffalo (+10.5)

Every freaking year, I say to myself “You know, the Bills can’t possibly suck this bad again right?”

Well my friends, this year, I am going to move forward with the firm conviction that they can indeed suck this bad again.

However, what sets the Bills apart from other laughably inept teams is that they prefer to torture their victims before falling into irrelevance.

This is the home opener.  It is against the hated cheating bastard Patriots.  Not one of the 126 Buffalo fans has lost all hope yet.

Therefore, I believe that the Bills will come out of the gate flying, brimming with the confidence of short memories.  Then they’ll crap the bed in the second half and lose by 9.

Since 9 is less than 10.5 even with new math, take the Bills and the points.

  

Cincinnati at Bears (-3.5)

I told a co-worker the other day that I liked the Bengals’ team this year.  After I said it, I noticed that I did not feel the urge to break into hysterical laughter or throw up in my mouth.

That’s gotta mean something….

Bengals cover this one.

Miami at Cleveland (pick)

In every sense of the word, this is truly a “pick-em” game.

Both teams are, theoretically, much improved.

Cleveland’s young team is more experienced and healthier than they have been for some time.

Miami made some big offseason moves to bolster their lineup.

I’m taking the Browns and here’s why:

1)      It is Cleveland’s home opener.

2)      The Browns have not yet had a chance to get worn down by physical division opponents.

3)      I hereby decree that Dolphins will never sip from the chalice of champions in this world or the next until such time as the obnoxious, graying blowhards from that overrated 1972 team that never played anyone with a record better than 8-6 give up their sad celebrations when unbeaten teams lose.

That’s right.  The Dolphins are now cursed.  Go Browns.

Minnesota at Detroit (-4.5)

Under normal circumstances, placing my confidence behind any team as mercurial as the Lions generates excessive reflux.

This pick represents the “Wise Guys’ game of the week”.

I mean, who the hell would ever pit a team that finished 4-12 against a playoff team and then make them 4.5 point favorites?

Detroit was horrible last year, while their opponents came on strong at the end of the year and were a hurt QB away from making some noise in the playoffs.  Yet, the Lions are solid favorites going into the opener.

Despite all this, the smart money seems to be going toward the boys in blue so I’ll side with the wise guys this week.

Take the Lions and give up the 4 ½.

Oakland at Indianapolis (-10)

This one all comes down to impartially measuring the greater of 2 likelihoods:

1)      The Colts are an overrated squad who surprised a bunch of teams in close games and then benefitted from a very favorable schedule down the stretch.

2)      The Raiders may even be crappier than they were last year.

Impartiality be damned!  I hate the Raiders!

Colts win by 2 TD’s.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-3)

High upon the steep slopes of the mountain of NFL competency, these 2 teams are sharing a ledge.  In my estimation one is climbing upward, and one is heading back down to base camp.

The Falcons were not as good as their 2012 record indicated and would certainly have been trounced by the Seahawks in last year’s playoffs if the game hadn’t been played at like 4:00 AM PST.  They have great presence at their skill positions but their strength in the trenches has been gravely reduced by defection and injury.

The Saints, on the other hand, suffered an unconscionable level of offseason turmoil, a multitude of injuries, and the loss of one of the NFL’s finest coaches.  All these issues have since been resolved.

Get your party hats on Saints fans!  It’s rebound time!

Saints cover at home.

Tampa Bay at NY Jets (+3.5)

I cannot even begin to tell you how tired I am of everything involving the friggin Jets.

If these clowns were from any other city, they’d be nothing more than a crappier version of Jacksonville to the hordes of media that now help them pollute our television sets.

It’s a sad day when Broadway Joe Namath is the solitary, restrained voice of reason for this band of loud mouths.

All Tampa needs to do is give the ball to the Muscle Hamster 30 times this game they’ll cream these guys.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7.5)

Hmmmm….

Uh…..

Crap.

I don’t know.  I guess take the Titans to cover since Locker may not remember how bad he sucks yet and Pittsburgh is all banged up at running back.

Seattle at Carolina (+3.5)

And here we have the Admiral Akbar game of the Week.

The Seahawks are widely considered to be the class of the NFL.  Their starters dominated the preseason, their sophomore QB looks like a mobile Joe Montana, and their defense is as stout as any since the 2000 Ravens.

The Panthers, last I checked, still have the ever cerebral Cam Newton calling the shots behind center. 

If there are 2 things in the NFL that make Cam wilt like a 20^th century French Infantry Battalion, it is strong, smart defenses and the pressure of expectations.

When the Panthers are 2-7 and out of the playoff hunt, look for them to kick ass.  Until then, expect the same baboonery you normally get from them during the 1^st half of the season.

I cannot begin to guess why the line on this game is so small.

That having been said, I’m falling into the trap.

‘Hawks Cover.

Kansas City at Jacksonville (+4.5)

I’m not buying into the Chief’s hype.  I don’t care who your quarterback was, 2-14 is crap. 

Conversely, the irrefutable counterargument to the aforementioned truth is that the Jacksonville Jaguars sully the good name of “crap”.

The Chefs may win this game with their new coach and QB, but I’m not comfortable taking the worst team in the league in 2012 and laying 4 ½ on the road.

I feel dirty even making a pick on this game, but I’ll lean toward the Jags to cover.

NY Giants at Dallas (-3.5)

The Giants are beat up, mediocre on paper, and are playing on the road.

Dallas has awesome receivers, a stud regular season QB, and a decent pass rush. 

The gambler’s fallacy demands that the Cowboys win a home game against these guys eventually right?

All the tangibles point toward a Dallas victory here and a sizable one at that.

Sadly for the loud-mouthed Southerners who infest our ski slopes and highways, there is one gargantuan albatross around their neck:

No team owned by the mummy of Ramses II has ever made the playoffs.

Take the Giants here obviously.

 

Arizona at St. Louis (-4.5)

My “Gut Feeling” game of the week.

Arizona has a new coach and a competent NFL quarterback for the first time since Kurt Warner.  Their Defensive secondary is pretty damn good and the smart money in Vegas is drifting heavily toward the Cards.

With all that being true, I still cannot make myself believe that a team that lost 11 straight to end the season and couldn’t stop a 100 year old model ‘A’  from running roughshod is going to come on the road and stand up to an improved Rams team.

An extra year removed from any Josh McDaniels influence is more than enough to satisfy this guy.

Take the Rams and lay the points.

Green Bay at San Francisco (-4.5)

“Trust is built with consistency.”
--Lincoln Chafee

I botched this game last year during the playoffs citing the consistency in Aaron Rodger’s performance and leadership.

In matters not pertaining to Ryan Braun or the surrendering of a season’s worth of paychecks should the aforementioned MLB player actually be caught cheating, I can trust Aaron Rodgers (henceforth to be known as “The Welcher”).

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.”
--R.W. Emerson

Screw Emerson.  I’m going to be consistent and pick Rodgers over Kaepernick until the lad shows me he can sustain his brilliance from last season.

Take "The Welchers" to cover this week.

Houston at San Diego (+3)

Perhaps I have overestimated the potency of the Texans when healthy or underestimated the positive impact of the jettisoning of Norv Turner from the Chargers’ clubhouse, but this line seems way too low for me.

Only Houston’s late season struggles, coupled with the fact that I can never underestimate the impact of getting rid of Norv (particularly in the early season), keep me from making this the “Admiral Akbar Game of the Week”.

San Diego has some of the most apathetic fans in the NFL and their home field advantage is garbage even when they don’t suck.

Trap me again Vegas but I’m taking the Confederates to cover this game.

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)

Allow me to apologize in advance to all my apolitical readers for the following opinion.

I cannot begin to understand why so many Native American groups and PC thugs are so up in arms about the name “Redskins”.

It seems pretty clear that the name is not, in fact, a derogatory epithet to belittle and minimize individuals belonging to a proud culture with a rich and tragic history.

Just as the Cleveland “Browns” are not so named because of their jersey or skin color but after the immensely successful owner and coach, Paul Brown, the “Redskins” keep their offensive name simply to pay homage to the football pedigree of their Head Coach:

On a football note, I’m leaning toward Washington to cover now that RGIII is definitely starting and I have no idea what to expect from Chip Kelly and the new Eagles.

And so it begins my friends!  Are YOU ready for some football?