**Season Primier!** Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Frey's Preseason Analysis

Family is conflict and it's something that we all relate to.
--Bill Cosby

If there is one nagging complaint that I have had in the past regarding Survivor, it is the obvious lengths to which the producers go to drum up drama when none would otherwise exist.

The common formula for casting has become necessarily predictable to ensure maximum conflict.  Tell me if this sounds like a familiar breakdown for a tribe of 18:

(4)  Unusually pretty and fit young women (usually employed as foxy boxers, bar tenders, or sorority spokespersons)

(1)  Really angry woman typically of African-American descent.

(1)  Pleasant looking young woman with a prestigious job or a degree from Oxford/Harvard.

(1)  Healthy Middle aged mother who will be invariably torn between hanging with older tribe members or being some sort of a mentor to the younger contestants.  She’ll probably cry a lot and miss her kids.

(1)  Friendly but mentally unstable woman over the age of 50 who is guaranteed to last about 17 minutes before getting voted out.

(2)  Loudmouthed Frat boys who look like Sasquatch after only 3 days of not shaving.  They’ll hit on some of the aforementioned young women and then say they feel foolish for doing so.  Then they’ll do it some more.

(2) Distinguished looking middle aged men with a physically demanding profession such as Air Force marathon instructor or fire hose schlepper. 

(1) Intelligent gay guy who is either really cool or a total bunghole. 

(1) Guy who is about the same age as the frat boys but actually has a job or family.  He’ll either avoid the other young guys or become their leader.  You’ll know this dude because he’ll be the only guy under 30 on the island who doesn’t look like the Geiko cave man by the 2nd episode.

(1)  Gentleman from somewhere south of Butthole Arkansas.  If he has more than 11 of his original teeth remaining he will need to be addressed as “Colonel”.

(1) African-American man who is either hyper-educated or has a really bitchin job like a gravedigger or swashbuckler.  Either way, the “Colonel” will be unsure how to react to him at first.

(1) Hidden B-list celebrity or retired sports star.  They generally spend the whole game claiming to be a pig farmer or a cobbler.  Other contestants haven’t yet caught on that normal looking middle-aged people with boring jobs are never selected to play Survivor.

(1) Random crazy person of whichever gender is needed to round out the numbers.  You will know this one by the fact that they are a crazy person.

You can imagine my glee when I saw the format for this season. 

Instead of tracking down abnormal people and then throwing individuals of disparate backgrounds into a tent together (and then not feed them) in an attempt to create friction, the producers have simply brought family members onto the island.

Since emotions always run deepest during civil wars, this formula may well replace synthetic drama with real unpleasantness. 

If not, then I will make it my mission to ensure they go back to the “eye candy + crazy people” formula that has served so well over recent years.

Given the fact that I haven’t the foggiest idea how this is going to work and only know slightly less than half of the contestants, this week consists of a brief overview of the participants and some initial observations based solely on my own preconceptions.

Tyson Apostle / Rachel Foulger (Dating)

Tyson (Age: 34)
Survivor: Tocantins and Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--Smart-assed Mormon guy whose inability to perform simple arithmetic doomed both himself and Boston Rob.  He’s pretty funny in interviews and has some challenge acumen.  His tendency to be something of an arsehole may cause issues at some point.

Rachel (Age: 33)
Cocktail Waitress/Graphic Designer

--While it is not unusual for Survivor to present us with yet another cocktail waitress for our viewing pleasure, it is somewhat unusual for said cocktail waitress to be dating a Mormon guy.  I hope she is half as entertaining as Tyson.

Aras Baskauskas & Vytas Baskauskas (Brothers)

Aras (Age: 31)
Survivor: Panama – Exile Island, winner

--This guy was boring as hell.  I half expected that he would be dating Julie the boring race-car chick from last season.  Moreover, he was far weaker in challenges than I would have expected from a 24 year old yoga instructor.   I doubt anyone will remember he won a million bucks so if he stays chill he may do OK.

Vytas (Age: 33)
Yoga Instructor/Math Professor

--Math Professor?  He is without question the most valuable member of any alliance that contains Tyson.

RUPERT BONEHAM & LAURA BONEHAM (MARRIED)

Rupert (Age: 49)
Survivor: Pearl Islands, Survivor: All Stars, Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--I know next to nothing about this guy.  Never even heard of him.  I think he played the part of “Rasputin” in a BBC documentary about Tsar Nicolas II.  I bet he cries like a schoolgirl when he finds out he and his wife are on opposing tribes.

Laura Boneham (Age: 44)
Merchandiser

--44 year old women who are not aerobics instructors or triathletes either get wacked early (if they are smart and/or likable) or bungle their way into 3^rd place by riding the non-entity train.   I think the notoriety of being the wife of Rasputin may diminish the value of the “lay low” strategy.

CANDICE CODY & JOHN CODY (MARRIED)

Candice (Age 30)
Survivor: Cook Islands; Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--You’d think that someone who was on the show twice already and was considered either a hero or villain (I cannot recall which) would have left some sort of residual memory.  I read somewhere that she’s a doctor so I guess she’ll have some value to her tribe.  Maybe she’ll keep them from drinking water from the latrine or something…..

John (Age: 30)
Physician, Army Orthopedic Surgery Resident

This guy looks good on paper.  I guess it depends upon which kind of army doctor he is:

MONICA CULPEPPER & BRAD CULPEPPER (MARRIED)

Monica (Age: 42)
Survivor: One World

I think this may be the season where the 40+ house mom does some damage.  She’s got a pretty old tribe, is pretty solid in challenges, and Kat is going to need a mommy if both make it to the merge.  I’m not ranking yet but I like Monica’s mojo.

Brad (Age: 44)
Attorney and retired NFL player. Played for Minnesota , Tampa Bay, and Chicago.

I saw a picture of this guy yesterday and it looks like he lost a hundred pounds from his playing days.  He was pretty good on Madden 93’ so I think he’ll probably do OK here (provided that nobody learns about his identity too soon).  Tribes needs some early beef to make it to the merge although the numbers are less important now with the family element.

COLTON CUMBIE & CALEB BANKSTON (ENGAGED)

Colton (age: 22)
Survivor: One World

This guy was about the biggest son-of-a-bitch I have ever seen on this show.  His last stint on Survivor was the only time in my life I have openly rooted for an injury which is saying something considering that there are teams like the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Redwings out there.  Colton is the type of guy who roots for the Germans in war documentaries.  Pointlessly and senselessly callous, mean-spirited, and hateful, I know exactly who this guy really is:

Caleb (Age 26)
Post Office Manager/Farmer

--In the last season of The Amazing Race, the 2 gay gentlemen were also farmers.  Did I miss something?  Has the rural agricultural community suddenly become a bastion of tolerance and understanding in an otherwise unforgiving world?  If this guy isn’t farming hippy lettuce, you have to admire his huevos.  That having been said, if he is half the bigot that his fiancé Colton is then he’d fit right in with those hayseeds from Mississippi Burning.

KAT EDORSSON & HAYDEN MOSS (DATING)

Kat (Age: 23)
Survivor: One World

--I had a feeling that we’d see Kat again.  I mean who doesn’t want another season of our favorite gassy party girl with a slightly less than medium sized brain?  Kat will almost certainly do something goofy, or smelly, that will generate writing opportunities for me.

Hayden (Age: 26)
Real Estate/Winner of Big Brother 12

--Let me just say how terribly glad I am to see that reality show contestants can find love and solace in the arms of another reality show contestant.  If these guys were to propagate, I suspect their baby would look something,like this:

GERVASE PETERSON & MARISSA PETERSON (UNCLE AND NIECE)

Gervase (Age: 43)
Survivor: Borneo

--I didn’t watch Survivor when it first came out so I don’t know what to make of this guy.  He owns a cigar bar in Jersey so he may have some mob connections.  Not sure what bearing that might have on this season but I’m just saying…..

Marissa (Age: 21)
Student

--It’s refreshing to see a 21 year woman on the show who is not a hot-oil wrestler,  corporate executive, semi-truck driver, or practitioner of cave magic.  Her listed occupation is: Student.   Nothing more.  Nothing less.  I already like this girl.

TINA WESSON & KATIE COLLINS (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

Tina (Age: 52)
Survivor: The Australian Outback – winner; Survivor: All Stars –1^st out

--It has been so long since she played Survivor that Tina is probably broke already.  I mean, what does a million buck buy anymore anyway?  It’s chump change!  She better be in tip-top shape or I think Tina will get the early heave-ho due to her presumed age and gender limitations in physical challenges

Katie (Age: 25)
Hedge fund support

--Yep.  Tina’s definitely broke if her daughter works in hedge funds……

LAURA MORETT & CIERA EASTIN (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

Laura (Age: 43)
Survivor: Samoa

--It looks to me given the ages of the women among the previous contestants that a powerful “Cougar Alliance” is imminent.   It’s been so long since Laura has played that I’m just going to act as if she is the Poor Man’s Monica until she gives me reason to believe otherwise.

Ciera (Age: 24)
Cosmetology Student

--Thank God!  I cannot imagine a more useful person than a cosmetology student stranded on an island overrun with 45 year old women.  This chick is a shoe-in for the finals if she can make it to the merge.

I’ll have the first rankings next week!  Enjoy the season my friends