Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 2 Power Rankings

 My Friends!

Welcome to the week 1 power rankings!  You may notice, either to your chagrin or unrelenting joy, that the following rantings are bit less verbose than usual.

I'm in San Francisco keeping the incomparable Mrs. Fryguy company while she toils at a conference and somehow found myself in a pub in Haite-Ashbury with about 75 minutes to drink my IPA's and get back to the Coit Tower area for dinner.  I give it about 1 chance in 3......

I would like to start out the season by saying what a bunch of %$#&ing idiots the newbie tribe is for voting out Marissa.  Unless we got jobbed by editing again, it seems the entire reason they knocked out this poor girl was because her uncle is a dick.

She did better at the water challenge than any African-American female who has ever played the game, is obviously intelligent, and (most importantly) also thinks her uncle is a dick, making her an invaluable member of any alliance.

Hell, if I'm one of the guys in the "tool-time" alliance, I vote her off last of all the women and probably after the loudmouth football guy and Colton's boyfriend is one can almost certainly suspect is not entirely comfortable allying himself with a bunch of meatheads.

To the rankings than!

 

#1)  Vytas

He's not a loud-ass.  He's not a jack-ass.  He's not a ghard-ass.  He's not engaged to the most horrible human being on any island not called "Alcatraz", and he didn't just win a million bucks in another reality show like 4 weeks ago. 

He's also the only one who vocalized his opinion that voting out Marissa was stupid, indicating that he has brains.

There is not a human being that I know worth a crap who hasn't suffered through dark times in their days.  Aras' Brother's battles will make him more relatable and empathetic to other players.  It was also wise for him to downplay the fact that he is a Math Professor lest people like Tyson get really jealous.

He's also in the dominant Alliance.  If he can play it close to the vest, I really like his chances.

 

#2)  Heydan

Like everyone with  penis in the newbie tribe, Hayden is in a pretty good shape.

While it doesn't help that he's already been the recipient of reality show largess, he is likable, self-deprecating, and has experience making chuckleheads and nincompoops like him (see Big Brother: Season 12). 

He's got the tools to get to the merge at the very least and probably farther.

 

#3)  Tyson

If there is one thing the tribe of returning players cannot afford it is to lose strong male players.  I know they won the last challenge but that was due entirely to the wily old cougars, not to any physical prowess.

Tyson can build fires, he a very strong physical competitor, and he usually starts out pretty chill.  If he can keep his genetic need to be a practitioner of dickery to a minimum this time, he's got some serious longevity.

 

#4)  Aras

See above, except that he already won a million bucks so people will be far more wary of him.  Everyone knows Aras is a good guy and he already saved a completely inept tribe-mate from drowning in 3 feet of water so it is unlikely anyone wants to sit next to him in the end.

He's a virtual shoe-in for the merger though so if he can parley his experience, likeability, and cool-brother into a majority alliance he'll go places

#5) John

 It pains me to rank this guy as high as I am, but since the editing staff denied us the opportunity to decipher a single strategem of anyone toiling for the returning members tribe, I'm gonna have to go on what we know.

He's got a dong (puportedly), and they already wiped out one of the remaining four ladies so he's not getting voted out yet.  It doesn't get much safer than that.

I bet you 50 bucks that hot doctor-wife Candice humps Rupert or Marissa before this guy gets any action considering that he unceremoniously tossed her to redemption island...

 

#6) Caleb

I cannot for the life of me figure out why a totally normal, ostensibly intelligent, and reasonably likable guy like Caleb would ever pledge his love to a scumhole like Colton.  Caleb's best hope is that Colton gets wiped as soon as possible.

It is his association with Colton that may doom this guy unless he ends up doing something stupid to hasten his demise.

I rank him above Brad because he's kind of an "under-the-radar" guy and I suspect he'll have some flexibility when it comes to jumping ship on the tool-time alliance.

 

#7)  Brad

I'm a broken record here, but he is a member of the only known majority alliance.  He is, however, a millionaire athlete,  a poor strategist, and loves playing alpha dog.

Unless he can be a "Super-prick" that everyone wants to take to the finals, he's just gonna end up being a regular prick that everyone hates.

Still, he's safe for now.

 

 #8)   Monica

This tribe is very difficult to peg right now.  The previous episode gave us no insight to any of the politics so I am left to simply guess as to what is going on.

Monica is twice the man Colton is and is obviously skilled in puzzles.  I have a feeling the returning players' team is due for a loss as a result of their appalling lack of beef but there is no reason to wipe this lady out yet.

 

#9) Laura

 

Oh %#&!  I have like 15 minutes. 

Laura is kind of like Monica.  Since I don't do that 8a and 8b bullcrap I'll just say she's #9

 

#10)  Rachel

I almost forgot who this woman was.  i actually had to go to the google to see who I was missing since my math didn't add up; on the rankings.

This is a pretty good sign this early in the game

 

#11)  Kat

Kat is fun to look at compared to the rest of this motley crew but nobody on a tribe of married men, gay guys, and cougars gives a damn.

She's half the age of Tina, hasn't already won a million bones, and may be viewed as someone who would be easily manipulated so she has some survivability for now.

 

#12) Gervase

He's kind of jerk, but not enough of one that you can't handle him long enough to have him sitting next you in front of the final jury.

If he doesn't drown in the shower on the next episode, he'll probably be OK.

 

#13)  Tina

Tina knows what she is doing. 

Everyone else knows that Tina knows what she is doing.

This is not a winning combination when you are a millionaire 54 year old on a tribe with an appalling lack of physical presence.

 

#14)  Colton

Every season there is some Delta Bravo who lucks into power and then acts like a son-of-a-bitch.

If there is anyone out there who believes Colton is simply a misunderstood man with an alternative lifestyle who is eager to turn over a new leaf, raise your hand.  Now imagine me kicking you in the ass until you smarten up.

Farquaad is a bastard and nobody on a team of savvy returning players is going to put up with it for long.  If they cannot rattle of a string of challenge wins he's gone.

#15)  Ciera

She sucked ass at the puzzle and, somehow, everyone forgot she sucked ass at the puzzle.

She's in the minority alliance.  I know little else about her other than she's like 20 and has 2 kids. 

So she's a goer.

That has nothing to do with survivor when there are no single guys to woo.

 

#16  Rasputin's Wife

Well....

 She did OK on the challenge I guess.

However, everyone on the island knows that Rasputin will go the grave for his wife to advance even one more day in this game. 

this makes it pretty hard to count on her to be unfailingly loyal unless her and Rupert pull of the greatest ruse in Survivor history by having her vote him off at the first opportunity

As cool as it would be, I don't think she makes it that far.

#17  Katie

She looked like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest during that puzzle.

If Gervase hadn't drowned, come back to life, and then talked crap, she'd be gone.

Katie better take care of business next week or she's gone if it foes to tribal again.

 

#18)  Candice

A lot of people have Rupert here, but since most doctors have steady nerves and nimble hands, I'm gonna give the nod to the hot doctor.

Plus, I think that the tormented Doctor John would totally take her place given the obvious angst of his soul at abandoning her early.

If he doesn't, she'll be the next mistress of Doctor Kelso from scrubs.

 

19)  Rupert

Redemption Island is a test of nerves and Rasputin's experience will serve him well in the elimination challenge.

 

20)  Marissa

You got hosed.  I mean, seriously hosed.

I hope I'm wrong but I can't shake the feeling that you will be only a memory when I next write.

I hope you punch your uncle Gervase in the wiener when you get home.

Frey's Week 3 NFL Picks: Restoring Honor Through Brevity

Ye Gods!  Another crappy week for prognostication!  My Kingdom for an extra half-point!

As my friend Manual so astutely pointed out, I am way too verbose for someone sporting a 12-18-2 record.

Until I earn the right to pontificate on boring games that feature crap teams that nobody cares about, I’ll practice a little brevity.

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-3)

While it is true that the Eagles seem incapable of stopping anyone defensively, it is equally true that Alex Smith in a new offense is a magical elixir to all ailing foes.  Too much Vick and Shady.

Eagles Cover.

Green Bay at Cincinnati (+2)

Green Bay is 0-1 against teams that aren’t terrible.  So are the Bengals.

The Welchers win again.

St. Louis at Dallas (-4)

Somehow, I just can't see the Cowboys beating anybody not named Jacksonville or Washington  by more than a field goal unless they enjoy another 6-1 turnover advantage.  Even then, maybe not.

San Diego at Tennessee (-3)

Everyone remember the story of the scorpion and the toad crossing the river? 

Phillip can’t keep this up this level of competence.  Eventually, he’ll return to form and Tennessee is much better than anyone anticipated.

Cleveland at Minnesota (-5.5)

And now, a statement from YOUR Cleveland Browns:

This is the Admiral Akbar game of the Week and I’m jumping right on in!

The mediocre Vikings stomp a demoralized Browns squad that knows their ownership has quit on them already.

Tampa Bay at New England (-8.5)

I’ve seen New England play and a banged up Gronk on the field is still not enough to justify a line this large.

New England may eventually kick somebody’s ass but I can’t keep picking these guys like it’s 2008.

Arizona at New Orleans (-8.5)

This game is almost identical to the Bucs-Patriots game in that we have a home team with an underperforming offense and improved D laying a large number of points. 

However, the Cardinals are much better than the aforementiuoned Bucs even if Larry Fitz sits this one out.

Detroit at Washington (-1)

The Red Man can’t lose 3 in a row out of the gate right? 

Reggie Bush’s absence really hurts the Lions this week and I think the ‘Skins will finally pull one off.

NY Giants at Carolina (-.5)

I’m just going to assume that Eli only throws 3 picks in this game.

It’s still too many.

Houston at Baltimore  (+2.5)

You know what the Ravens’ Offense could use?

About everyone they let go in free agency.

Houston would be 0-2 if they had played any team in the NFL that didn’t start panicking whenever they started actually winning.

A tough call here but I’ll take the home underdog.

Atlanta at Miami (-2)

With Tannehill banged up I can’t shake the feeling that the Falcons pull off the upset here.

I know it is Miami’s home opener, but that doesn’t mean much for any team who needs to put tarps over 20,000 seats to make it look like people care.

Buffalo at NY Jets (-1)

Hmmm….Do I take the 1-1 team that sucks or the 1-1 team that sucks a little less but is on the road?

This actually causes me physical pain.

I guess I’ll go Jets.  It is, after all, the Bills we’re talking about.

Indianapolis at San Francisco (-10)

The 9ers are pissed about last week and are looking to take it out on a very overrated Colts team.

The Luck stops here.

Jacksonville at Seattle (-20)

That’s just too many damn points right?  Right?....<sigh>

Bears at Pittsburgh (+1.5)

Initially, I was thinking about going with the home team due to the fact that the Bears are barely squeaking by mediocre teams.

Then I remembered that Pittsburgh is getting stomped by mediocre teams.

Oakland at Denver (-14)

Never bail out on riding a great wave that is showing no signs of crashing. 

Losing Clady hurts badly and may have serious playoff repercussions but Oakland is by far the worst team the Broncos have faced thus far.

 I’d take Denver to win by 2 TD’s even if we are losing by 10 at halftime.

Last week 6-9-1

Season 12-18-2

**Season Primier!** Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Frey's Preseason Analysis

Family is conflict and it's something that we all relate to.
--Bill Cosby

If there is one nagging complaint that I have had in the past regarding Survivor, it is the obvious lengths to which the producers go to drum up drama when none would otherwise exist.

The common formula for casting has become necessarily predictable to ensure maximum conflict.  Tell me if this sounds like a familiar breakdown for a tribe of 18:

(4)  Unusually pretty and fit young women (usually employed as foxy boxers, bar tenders, or sorority spokespersons)

(1)  Really angry woman typically of African-American descent.

(1)  Pleasant looking young woman with a prestigious job or a degree from Oxford/Harvard.

(1)  Healthy Middle aged mother who will be invariably torn between hanging with older tribe members or being some sort of a mentor to the younger contestants.  She’ll probably cry a lot and miss her kids.

(1)  Friendly but mentally unstable woman over the age of 50 who is guaranteed to last about 17 minutes before getting voted out.

(2)  Loudmouthed Frat boys who look like Sasquatch after only 3 days of not shaving.  They’ll hit on some of the aforementioned young women and then say they feel foolish for doing so.  Then they’ll do it some more.

(2) Distinguished looking middle aged men with a physically demanding profession such as Air Force marathon instructor or fire hose schlepper. 

(1) Intelligent gay guy who is either really cool or a total bunghole. 

(1) Guy who is about the same age as the frat boys but actually has a job or family.  He’ll either avoid the other young guys or become their leader.  You’ll know this dude because he’ll be the only guy under 30 on the island who doesn’t look like the Geiko cave man by the 2nd episode.

(1)  Gentleman from somewhere south of Butthole Arkansas.  If he has more than 11 of his original teeth remaining he will need to be addressed as “Colonel”.

(1) African-American man who is either hyper-educated or has a really bitchin job like a gravedigger or swashbuckler.  Either way, the “Colonel” will be unsure how to react to him at first.

(1) Hidden B-list celebrity or retired sports star.  They generally spend the whole game claiming to be a pig farmer or a cobbler.  Other contestants haven’t yet caught on that normal looking middle-aged people with boring jobs are never selected to play Survivor.

(1) Random crazy person of whichever gender is needed to round out the numbers.  You will know this one by the fact that they are a crazy person.

You can imagine my glee when I saw the format for this season. 

Instead of tracking down abnormal people and then throwing individuals of disparate backgrounds into a tent together (and then not feed them) in an attempt to create friction, the producers have simply brought family members onto the island.

Since emotions always run deepest during civil wars, this formula may well replace synthetic drama with real unpleasantness. 

If not, then I will make it my mission to ensure they go back to the “eye candy + crazy people” formula that has served so well over recent years.

Given the fact that I haven’t the foggiest idea how this is going to work and only know slightly less than half of the contestants, this week consists of a brief overview of the participants and some initial observations based solely on my own preconceptions.

Tyson Apostle / Rachel Foulger (Dating)

Tyson (Age: 34)
Survivor: Tocantins and Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--Smart-assed Mormon guy whose inability to perform simple arithmetic doomed both himself and Boston Rob.  He’s pretty funny in interviews and has some challenge acumen.  His tendency to be something of an arsehole may cause issues at some point.

Rachel (Age: 33)
Cocktail Waitress/Graphic Designer

--While it is not unusual for Survivor to present us with yet another cocktail waitress for our viewing pleasure, it is somewhat unusual for said cocktail waitress to be dating a Mormon guy.  I hope she is half as entertaining as Tyson.

Aras Baskauskas & Vytas Baskauskas (Brothers)

Aras (Age: 31)
Survivor: Panama – Exile Island, winner

--This guy was boring as hell.  I half expected that he would be dating Julie the boring race-car chick from last season.  Moreover, he was far weaker in challenges than I would have expected from a 24 year old yoga instructor.   I doubt anyone will remember he won a million bucks so if he stays chill he may do OK.

Vytas (Age: 33)
Yoga Instructor/Math Professor

--Math Professor?  He is without question the most valuable member of any alliance that contains Tyson.

RUPERT BONEHAM & LAURA BONEHAM (MARRIED)

Rupert (Age: 49)
Survivor: Pearl Islands, Survivor: All Stars, Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--I know next to nothing about this guy.  Never even heard of him.  I think he played the part of “Rasputin” in a BBC documentary about Tsar Nicolas II.  I bet he cries like a schoolgirl when he finds out he and his wife are on opposing tribes.

Laura Boneham (Age: 44)
Merchandiser

--44 year old women who are not aerobics instructors or triathletes either get wacked early (if they are smart and/or likable) or bungle their way into 3^rd place by riding the non-entity train.   I think the notoriety of being the wife of Rasputin may diminish the value of the “lay low” strategy.

CANDICE CODY & JOHN CODY (MARRIED)

Candice (Age 30)
Survivor: Cook Islands; Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains

--You’d think that someone who was on the show twice already and was considered either a hero or villain (I cannot recall which) would have left some sort of residual memory.  I read somewhere that she’s a doctor so I guess she’ll have some value to her tribe.  Maybe she’ll keep them from drinking water from the latrine or something…..

John (Age: 30)
Physician, Army Orthopedic Surgery Resident

This guy looks good on paper.  I guess it depends upon which kind of army doctor he is:

MONICA CULPEPPER & BRAD CULPEPPER (MARRIED)

Monica (Age: 42)
Survivor: One World

I think this may be the season where the 40+ house mom does some damage.  She’s got a pretty old tribe, is pretty solid in challenges, and Kat is going to need a mommy if both make it to the merge.  I’m not ranking yet but I like Monica’s mojo.

Brad (Age: 44)
Attorney and retired NFL player. Played for Minnesota , Tampa Bay, and Chicago.

I saw a picture of this guy yesterday and it looks like he lost a hundred pounds from his playing days.  He was pretty good on Madden 93’ so I think he’ll probably do OK here (provided that nobody learns about his identity too soon).  Tribes needs some early beef to make it to the merge although the numbers are less important now with the family element.

COLTON CUMBIE & CALEB BANKSTON (ENGAGED)

Colton (age: 22)
Survivor: One World

This guy was about the biggest son-of-a-bitch I have ever seen on this show.  His last stint on Survivor was the only time in my life I have openly rooted for an injury which is saying something considering that there are teams like the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Redwings out there.  Colton is the type of guy who roots for the Germans in war documentaries.  Pointlessly and senselessly callous, mean-spirited, and hateful, I know exactly who this guy really is:

Caleb (Age 26)
Post Office Manager/Farmer

--In the last season of The Amazing Race, the 2 gay gentlemen were also farmers.  Did I miss something?  Has the rural agricultural community suddenly become a bastion of tolerance and understanding in an otherwise unforgiving world?  If this guy isn’t farming hippy lettuce, you have to admire his huevos.  That having been said, if he is half the bigot that his fiancé Colton is then he’d fit right in with those hayseeds from Mississippi Burning.

KAT EDORSSON & HAYDEN MOSS (DATING)

Kat (Age: 23)
Survivor: One World

--I had a feeling that we’d see Kat again.  I mean who doesn’t want another season of our favorite gassy party girl with a slightly less than medium sized brain?  Kat will almost certainly do something goofy, or smelly, that will generate writing opportunities for me.

Hayden (Age: 26)
Real Estate/Winner of Big Brother 12

--Let me just say how terribly glad I am to see that reality show contestants can find love and solace in the arms of another reality show contestant.  If these guys were to propagate, I suspect their baby would look something,like this:

GERVASE PETERSON & MARISSA PETERSON (UNCLE AND NIECE)

Gervase (Age: 43)
Survivor: Borneo

--I didn’t watch Survivor when it first came out so I don’t know what to make of this guy.  He owns a cigar bar in Jersey so he may have some mob connections.  Not sure what bearing that might have on this season but I’m just saying…..

Marissa (Age: 21)
Student

--It’s refreshing to see a 21 year woman on the show who is not a hot-oil wrestler,  corporate executive, semi-truck driver, or practitioner of cave magic.  Her listed occupation is: Student.   Nothing more.  Nothing less.  I already like this girl.

TINA WESSON & KATIE COLLINS (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

Tina (Age: 52)
Survivor: The Australian Outback – winner; Survivor: All Stars –1^st out

--It has been so long since she played Survivor that Tina is probably broke already.  I mean, what does a million buck buy anymore anyway?  It’s chump change!  She better be in tip-top shape or I think Tina will get the early heave-ho due to her presumed age and gender limitations in physical challenges

Katie (Age: 25)
Hedge fund support

--Yep.  Tina’s definitely broke if her daughter works in hedge funds……

LAURA MORETT & CIERA EASTIN (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

Laura (Age: 43)
Survivor: Samoa

--It looks to me given the ages of the women among the previous contestants that a powerful “Cougar Alliance” is imminent.   It’s been so long since Laura has played that I’m just going to act as if she is the Poor Man’s Monica until she gives me reason to believe otherwise.

Ciera (Age: 24)
Cosmetology Student

--Thank God!  I cannot imagine a more useful person than a cosmetology student stranded on an island overrun with 45 year old women.  This chick is a shoe-in for the finals if she can make it to the merge.

I’ll have the first rankings next week!  Enjoy the season my friends

The Fryguy's Week 2 NFL Picks

“Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

--Winston S. Churchill

Well I could act like last week was an anomaly but it appears the negative inertia I started in last year’s playoffs has attached itself to me like a crazy ex-girlfriend who just found out that you landed a high-paying gig.

A record of 6-9-1 places me squarely in the same realm as the Lions, Bills, and Browns of the last 2 decades and I am not fond of the association. 

Therefore, I shall begin the long process of re-establishing credibility by kicking butts this week.

Since a man is never really defeated if h learns lessons from failure, I intend to examine some recent history for each team before taking a stand.

Jets @ Patriots (-12)

What I learned last week:

New York—Even when victorious, these guys still look like a bunch of losers.  If Mark Sanchez had been the season-long starter, these guys would go 0-16.

New England—It’s a damn good thing they play a bunch of candy-asses for the first 1/3 of the season or they could be looking at a 2-3 until they adjust to their new skill position players.  I have also reconfirmed that Danny Amendola is actually Glass Joe from Punch Out.

New England played like crap on the road and still won.  The Jets played their best game, won the turnover battle, and still needed a bonehead play to pull off a last minute win against a mediocre team at home.  The Cheating SOB Patriots don’t need to film any practices this week.  Take the Pats to stomp them in Gillette Stadium.

Rams @ Falcons (-7)

What I learned last week:

St. Louis—If this is 2011 or 2012, a 9 point deficit to a suckhole team like Arizona would have been an obstacle of Himalayan proportions.  However, contrasting with the Rams teams of yesteryear, these guys have balls. 

Atlanta—The Falcon’s O-line looks a little shaky but not quite as shaky as it may have initially appeared.  With outstanding skill position players and a defense that looked at least serviceable on the road against a high-octane Saints team, I may have been premature in writing these guys off.

Early in the season (for a young team at least), it is sometimes it is better to lose a hard fought game than to win a contest in which you were outplayed by your opponent. 

I think that Atlanta is pissed that they lost last week while the Rams are relieved that they won. 

In any fight not involving the Italian Army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

Falcons cover at home.

Panthers @ Bills (+2.5)

What I learned last week:

Carolina—Cam Newton still sucks against quality defenses.  However, Carolina may actually have a quality defense of their own this year.

Buffalo—Even under a new coach, the Bills eschew losing in a manner that does not forcibly rip their fans’ souls right out of their butts.  Until such time as management brashly offers a multi-million dollar contract extension to E.J. Manuel, he will be surprisingly competent.  C.J. Spiller fantasy owners are undoubted enjoying some fine acid reflux after seeing Fred Jackson go house last week.

Hey man, if I’m at a hot craps table, I am not going to screw up the mojo by changing betting strategies.  In order to deliver the coup de grace to their remaining fans, the Bills need to get stomped by the Panthers.  Since they are not yet the Toronto Bills, I expect they will do just that. 

Panther’s cover.

Vikings @ Bears (-6)

What I learned last week:

Minnesota—Adrian Peterson is still a badass.  Christian Ponder still sucks.

Chicago—Rumors of Brandon Marshall’s minimization in the new offense has been greatly exaggerated.  When Cutler feels the heat, he still runs home to momma.  It also seems I may not have overbid on Matt Forte after all.

The Vikings made Reggie Bush look like Marshall Faulk last week and I see no reason why Forte cannot duplicate this effort as the Bears have a very refined screen game.  If the Bears run-blitz every play (loading the box is dangerous with AP if he gets past the front 7), I do not believe that Christian Ponder, sans a play-maker like Percy Harvin, can keep it closer than a touchdown.

Daaaaa Bears.

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

What I learned last week:

Cleveland—The only difference between these guys and Buffalo is that the Browns don’t even bother trying to violate their fan base.  They just go out and suck.

Baltimore—The Broncos kick ass.

Unless the Miami Dolphin are a hell of a lot better than I think they are, it appears the Browns did nothing more than slap a little makeup on a carcass.  It’s like the movie Groundhog Day with these guys.  Each Sunday morning, fans of the team grumpily reach over and smack the snooze button on the alarm, knowing with certainty that everything will be as it always has been.  

If not for the fact that living in Cleveland has given people an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around the city would be rife with self-immolation.

Unlike Cleveland, I suspect that Baltimore still has some pride left despite the arse kicking they took last week. 

The Ravens easily win their home opener against these chuckleheads.

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-1.5)

What I learned last week:

Dallas—The guys perplex me.  For the last 4 years, I have stared at the box scores and wondered just how a team that looks so good statistically keeps losing games or squeaking by.   It is now the fifth year, and the Cowboys almost lost their home opener against a division rival despite:

1)      More first downs

2)      Greater time of possession

3)      A huge advantage in rushing yards

4)      Fewer sacks allowed

5)      And a turnover margin of plus-freaking-5!

Kansas City—Jacksonville is a terrible litmus test for any team (unless, of course, they lose to said Jags) but compared to Brady Quinn and Matt Cassell, Alex Smith is the Norse God of the Gridiron.

Without Quinn and/or Cassell behind center, Dallas cannot reasonably expect to get 6 turnovers and Arrowhead is a pretty tough place to play when the home team doesn't suck so I’m leaning to the Chefs here.

Redskins @ Packers (-7.5)

What I learned last week:

Washington—All of the offseason “Shanahanigans” came out to bite these guys on the ass.  I've never seen a team look so flat coming out of the gates.  If their Hall of Fame coach cannot be relied upon to have solid game-plans, this will be a very long season for the Beltway Boys.

Green Bay—“The Welcher” is still a stud and their slow defense is still vulnerable to mobile QB’s. 

Fortunately for The Pack, RGIII is about as mobile as a drunken Bernie Kosar right now so they should be more than able to keep the Skins to around 20 points.  Since Green Bay will almost certainly hang 30+ on the scoreboard, I think the home team to cover is the proper play here.

Titans @ Texans (-9)

What I learned last week:

Tennessee—My God these guys are boring to watch.  The Titans’ victory last week was due more to Pittsburgh’s ineptitude than through any skill on their part.  When these guys play Jacksonville I am going to seriously consider going into cryogenic stasis to ensure I don’t accidentally see any of the game.

Houston—When playing shitty teams, Matt Schaub looks great.  A healthy Brian Cushing  makes this defense formidable again.  It is quite possible that we are only a couple weeks from the beginning of the Ben Tate regime....

Pittsburgh looked so bad last week that I cannot possibly prop up Tennessee before this game.  I can't shake the feeling that the Titans are heading for a rude awakening.  Houston, as a veteran team and Superbowl contender, got their early scare last week and will be playing with a Texas-sized chip on their shoulder.

Texans cover southern-style.

Dolphins @ Colts (-2.5)

What I leaned last week:

Miami—It is always a great sign when your new multi-million dollar free agent plays like crap and then bitches about the coaches.  Yep.  Awesome.

Indianapolis—These guys damn near cost me my eliminator pick in the first week of the season.  I am going to give them a pass based solely on the fact that they were ill-prepared to face a running QB.  As always, Andrew Luck looked good when it mattered.

Ryan Tannehill is most definitely not going to beat you with his feet and Mike Wallace is showing himself to be an overrated diva.   If the Colts wish to be taken seriously this year, they have to put the smack down on Miami this week.

The Colts should win by a field goal or more.

Chargers @ Eagles (-7.5)

What I learned last week:

Philadelphia—Chip Kelly’s offense looked like the wave of the future in the first half.  It either petered out due to fatigue in the second half or they just decided to mellow out with a 26 point lead.

San Diego—Phillip Rivers is scared of victory and can snap defeat from the jaws of victory better than anyone not named Greg Norman.  I also think he may be a bit dim...

Since the Chargers trip on their own dongs and then throw up on their coaches in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters, it doesn't matter why the Eagles struggled in the second half last week.  San Diego will be unable to exploit it.

Eagles in a romp.

Lions @ Cardinals (+.5)

What I learned last week:

Detroit—I am very glad I paid only 28 bucks against my salary cap for Matt Stafford in Fantasy this year.  Suh is a cheap bastard who just can’t stop himself from being a Delta Bravo.  He’s the dude who grabs the folding chair while the ref isn’t looking and then smashes an unconscious foe over the head with it.

Arizona—Well….they’re better.  Now they only barely lose to mediocre teams.

Detroit is a mediocre team (until they prove otherwise).  Since we have established already that an improved Arizona team now barely loses to mediocre teams, we must take the Lions to cover here as .5 points is still less than “barely.”

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3)

What I learned last week:

New Orleans—These guys just beat a team that was 13-3 last year but didn't look that great doing so.  Yeah.  That doesn't even make sense to me and I wrote it.

Tampa Bay—They lost to the Jets.  I have no further comment.

This is my Admiral Akbar Game of the Week.

The Saints just defeated an extremely talented team that had the best record in the NFC last year.  Their head coach has returned, they have a skilled motivator at defensive coordinator, and they enjoyed a drama-free offseason .

The Bucs just lost to the #$%&ing Jets.

Yep.  I’ll fall for the trap game again this week.

Saints cover.

Broncos @ Giants (+4.5)

What I learned last week:

Denver—If they can come out of the gate as strong as they finish there is no hope to be had for their foes.

New York—These guys are resilient.  For a team to commit 6 turnovers on the road and still fight hard enough to have a chance of winning in the end is why they are called the “Giants” and not the “Bills.”

Surprisingly, this is a pretty tough call for me.  There is no way the Giants commit 6 turn overs this week and they are playing at home.

Conversely, the Broncos are not the Cowboys and will not require 6 turnovers to kick their ass.

This could end up going bad for the Broncos if they cannot generate a pass rush on Eli without bringing more than 4-5 men but I cannot see any scenario where New York can keep Denver from scoring more than 30 points.

Slight lean to the Broncos to cover here.

Jaguars @ Raiders (-5.5)

What I learned last week:

Jacksonville—These guys are horrible.

Oakland—These guys are horrible but their Quarterback can run fast.

25 years from now, I’ll be sitting by the fire with my grandson on my knee, and he’ll ask me about the most terrible event I ever witnessed.  There is a 37% chance that this game will meet that criteria.

Take the Raiders here and then go shower off.

49ers @ Seahawks (-2.5)

What I learned last week:

San Francisco—I am now sold on C.K.  Like Tebow he has all the intangibles.  Unlike Tebow, he has tangibles.

Seattle—This Defense is stout.  Even though Cam Newton crumbles under the weight of expectations, holding him to 163 yards is impressive as hell.

This is my “Gut Feeling Game of the Week.”

The 49ers dropped 33 points on the Packers and looked unstoppable offensively.  Any defensive shortcomings can easily be explained by the fact that they were pitted against a stellar Green Bay offense.

On the other hand, Seattle’s offense looked like Mr. Ferly from that show Three’s Company and any defensive accomplishments can be explained by the fact that they played a choking quarterback with the IQ of a golf bag.

I cannot say why, but I think the Seahawks regain their self-respect this week and beat the 9ers by 10 or so.

Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5)

What I learned last week:

Pittsburgh—All great empires fall or fade into irrelevance.  From Egypt to England, major powers age and lose their vitality, eventually to be eclipsed by upstarts.  The Steelers are old, banged up, and tired from playing so many games over the last decade.  They looked it last week.

Cincinnati—The Bengals are a competent team with a ton of talent but they suffer from the same blight that infects many better than average teams.  They win the games they should win, and lose the games they are expected to lose.

This line is only 6.5 due solely to the fact that people cannot completely come to terms with the reality that the Steelers, much like the Ottomans in 1914, are shadows and a memory.  The Bengals should win this game and they will.  Easily.

Take the ugly helmets to cover.

Last Week:  6-9-1
Season: 6-9-1