Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Survivor Caramoan Season 26 Fans vs. Favorites: Week 7 Write Up and Player Power Rankings

If any doubts existed as to who was going home last week, they were immediately expunged by the fact that Julia got more camera time in the first 10 minutes than all of the previous episodes combined.

I cannot imagine what the producers of the show were thinking when they cast Julia.  Did they not even interview her?  The only logical explanation is that they checked her out on paper and said “A Stanford educated female racecar driver?  This chick must kick ass!.” 

In actuality, simply seeing her image makes chronic insomniacs want to curl up on the ground wherever they might be and take a nap.  I am pleased to see her go but I think the smart strategic choice would have been to wipe Michael out.

He and Corrine are every bit the “Survival Couple” that Rob and Amber were minus any possibility of giving each other a good rodgering in the shelter.  Phillip may be crazy but he was wise to want to split that up.

Mercifully, the merge is upon us as it is far less entertaining when you know in advance which tribe is going to lose every time a challenge comes up.  It will, however, make for a tough week for power rankings.


1)      Malcolm

I have been giving Malcolm’s recent loyalty shift a great deal of thought.

On one hand, he is very wise to see the probability that the 4 male physical specimens will almost certainly be targeted.  It is also very wise to bring in 3 strong players who are outside any existing alliance and form a brotherhood.

3 things, however, trouble me about what we have seen thus far:

1)       On the surface, Malcolm seems to be practicing “Eddie Arithmetic”.  An alliance of 4 badasses (only 1 of which can win immunity at any given time) against 6 pansies, 1 crazy man, and “Stealth R’ Brenda” is not a winning formula. 
2)      Corinne knows he has an idol.  Corinne loves “Her Gay” so Michael will soon know Malcolm has an idol.  If those guys know he has the idol, they must either be brought into “Malcolm’s Meats” to ensure at least temporary silence or Corrine needs to be blindsided immediately before she can spill the beans.
3)      If Eddie somehow finds out he is in a new alliance, he may be unable to mask his confusion which will cause suspicion.

If Malcolm can whittle the numbers on the down-low to the point where his alliance has some voting clout and he can add 2 players to his crew, then this game is his.  If the others discover his plans before this happens, he will need to find an idol every day for either himself or for one of his monkeys for the rest of the game just to save his ass.


2)      Reynold

The Fates have conspired to breathe life into the pompous ring/bag/hook-tosser with a timely shuffle, an early merge, a magnetic attraction to immunity idols, and a powerful player in Malcolm who wants to join forces.

Reynold’s primary responsibility right now is to keep Dipshit Eddie oblivious to the fact that he’s not vacationing in Bermuda until the numbers are in their favor.

With everyone who hates him getting voted out before jury time, his position gets stronger each week.

If he can keep from being an assface to everyone, lets Malcolm handle the strategy, and wins a couple immunities he may be one of the last men standing.


3)      Erik

Every time I see this guy the song “Peace Frog” by The Doors pops into my head.



Erik is now in a very good spot as an employee of “Malcolm’s Meats”.

He doesn’t have an idol like Reynold and Malcolm but he doesn’t have as big of a target on him either.

His quiet likability and flowing locks of 1970’s hair contrast violently with the Miami Vice thing that the DB brothers (Reynold and Eddie) exhibit.

Erik is a beast in challenges but the fact that he was outside Phillip’s disintegrating alliance and lacks an idol keeps him from the top 2.


4)      Eddie

-CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG!

Keep Spring-breaking there Eddie and let the smart guys handle everything.

Beware though, with the merge, some less than pleasing looking people will be hanging around the keg again and we know how that harshes your buzz.


5)      Corrine

A huge jump for Corrine and for that I am grateful. 

Her Shrewery is most entertaining and adds much needed “non-crazy” spice to the season.

Corrine has the following going for her heading into the merge:

1)      She knows Malcolm has the idol and cannot simply be nudged out of “Malcolm’s Meats.”
2)      She is less annoying than Phillip and once the Alliance starts to degrade she may outlast the specialist.
3)      She has a guy in Michael who, ostensibly, owes her his allegiance.
Conversely, the same advantages may hasten her exit:
1)      Malcolm knows that she is the only one who can rat him out.  If he ever intends to axe her, he must do it immediately before she has time to prepare a defense or let the cat out on the idol.
2)      Unlike a situation when two parents argue constantly and the kids wish to spend time with the one is less of a butthole, players may choose to keep the butthole that everyone knows cannot win a million bucks.  Either way, the fighting stops.
3)      She so vociferously champions Michael that the rest of her alliance may rightly view her as a flop risk and lower the boom.  I do not know why Corinne doesn’t understand this.

Her rating could just as easily be #10 as #5 but determining her fate depends entirely upon the largesse of Malcolm.


6)      Brenda

Malcolm’s decision to ally with the dudes hurts Brenda pretty substantially.  We all knew that the “Stealth R’ Us” nonsense would self-implode eventually but I thought the natural reformed alliance would involve Brenda in some capacity.

She’s not burdened with loyalty choices and may still end up on the right side of the numbers but the fact that it is Corinne and not Brenda that knows Malcolm’s secret makes her a little less likely to get in on the ground floor.

As “The Beard” showed us, you cannot play the entire game without committing to something.  Brenda had best pick a side or she’ll die of neutrality.

I only rate her this high because I like her long-term prognosis better than some of the others I list below but the short-term danger is real here.


7)      Cochran
Watching him desperately try to use logic to talk Phillip off his “Corinne must go” cliff was beautiful in a very sad way.  You know that, eventually, logic must run into emotion and the resulting wreck is going to take a few people down.
Cochran has been astute, clever, and circumspect throughout this game but he will eventually need to make a move.  Given his previous experiences, I am concerned that he will try and apply inapplicable lessons from last time that will be catastrophic in this battle.
Farmer Ted’s game is entirely reliant upon measureable and predictable outcomes which allow him to consider options and make the right call.  There is nothing measureable or predictable about “The Specialist” and this will make him wish to finally rid the game of the curse of the pink underpants.
Sadly, Cochran may not realize that the logical move of voting out Michael and Phillip plays right into the hands of “Malcolm’s Meats”, and since they will lose Eddie as a founding member if anyone who looks like Cochran would even be considered for membership, his list of allies will be quite thin.
He sits with Dawn in the “not getting wacked…..yet” pool of players.

8)      Dawn

The “No Cry List” has re-started at a robust “1” for Dawn.

Well done professor!  You are now tied with my 2 year old!  Let all children under the age of 7 beware!  Dawn is now a dry county!

I don’t think anyone wants to see her go home yet but I don’t yet see her as much of a threat to win the big prize at the moment.  She hasn’t really done anything and nobody wants to debate the English Professor at the end so it might be tough going here very soon.

However, I do applaud her refocusing Phillip by betraying Julia’s confidence and telling him that Julia betrayed his confidence.  It did prevent a complete breakdown of the alliance at least for 1 more week.

9)      Andrea
This ranking is based upon nothing more than a gut feeling. 
The re-shuffle did not last long enough for Andrea to relax and mellow a bit.
To this point, Andrea has been involving herself in about every petty power struggle that has arisen and has been bouncing around talking strategy to everyone from Cochran to Malcolm to Sherri to Brandon.
She is proudly displayed herself as an observant and aggressive player who is tight with pinky and is a serious threat to expose both Malcolm’s new alliance and, potentially, his idol. 
People who wish to hurt Phillip without actually whacking him from the game may target his more likable buddy first.  She had best lay very low or, preferably, form a side alliance of her own with someone other than Phillip. 
She’s like the drunkard at the poker table who never folds and plays in every round.  This type of play pays big dividends if luck is on your side and you always have a good hand.  However, intelligent players will note your tendency to get involved in every pot and absolutely destroy you when they know that have the stronger cards.

10)   Sherri

With Julia gone, someone has to undertake the mantle of nonentity.

Welcome to irrelevance Stiffler’s Mom!  Her “I have 200 employees” arrogance disappeared with the numbers only to be replaced by bitterness.

She foolishly ran her mouth about what a bunch of chodes Eddie and Reynold are instead of considering the possibility that she may actually need someone to have her back in this game.

If her plan is to beg herself into the final spot of a tribe with numbers dominance, she’ll need to convince Corinne that she is far gayer than Michael as he seems to have settled into that position.

Right now she has nobody and did nothing more than give knowledge to her foes and further alienate 2 more people who may have simply forgotten she was there otherwise.


11)   Michael

This guy is still hosed.

He is certainly in better shape than last week  but his protector needs to pipe down a little bit about how much she loves his sexual preference.  Michael most decidedly does not need any attention right now and, I believe, may be best served if Corinne was snuffed out

If the remnants of the “Pinky and the Brains” alliance do not yet wish to vote out one of their own , he is now a serious target as savvy players will wish to deny Corinne her beloved pet going forward. 

Michael’s removal also serves Malcolm’s purpose of whittling down the numbers and getting Corrine back under his wing but he must take care not to alienate her or bitter Corinne will start flapping her gums.

His position is one of complete powerlessness right now but I think he may be mellow enough to suffer this indignity in a way that others would not.

If he can let the seas toss his rudderless ship around for a while, he may yet find a safe port but he needs some seriously favorable winds.


12)   Phillip

It has to end sometime doesn’t it? 

As much as I admired the way he valiantly defeated the mighty Cochran in arm wrestling and then promptly crapped the bed on the reward challenge, I do not think this was one of his stronger weeks.

I am not really worried that he told Cochran he threw the challenge so they could finally get rid of the omnipresent and formidable threat we knew as Julia, but his level of self-delusion has reached a point that I do not believe Phillip to be capable of noticing threats to his torch.

The merged tribe is not going to have any patience for a guy who comes in and starts pushing people around.  That ship has sailed and subtlety is now needed to carry the day

Wild cards like The Specialist are liabilities in the mid to late game unless handled with great expertise (e.g. Boston Rob).  Nobody in a power position wants to take that risk right now.

Julia—Ranked #13 out of 13 when voted out week 7
Matt—Ranked #10 of 14 when voted out in week 6.
Brandon—Ranked #15 out of 15 when voted out week 5
Laurie—Ranked #12 out of 16 when voted out week 4
Shamar—Ranked #17 out 17 when he left the game
Hope—Ranked #17 of 18 when voted out week 3
 Allie—Rated “Poor” when voted out week 2
Francesca—rated “Poor” when voted out week 1

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