Frey's NFL Picks Week 6: Well....Last Week Sure Sucked. But I Got Better!

I’ve often lived under the axiom that if you cannot be a shining example, than become a cautionary tale.

My braggadocio at going 4-0 last week resulted in a resounding 0-4 bitch-slap from karma.

Sorry for the foul mouth (I know that kids read this blog before they call their bookies) but it is important that the truth be spoken.  

Never use a Boromir meme lauding your awesomeness this early in the season.

Now that balance has been restored to the universe, let’s pick some games and get them right this time.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-3)

Harry Truman once said, “There is nothing new in the world except the history you don’t know.”

For much of the last decade, New England launches out of the gate, trips on their own badoinker, lands face first in the dust, and then pops back up to smack everyone else around for the next 3 months.

I love me some Mahomes, but let’s be honest here my friends.  The rook is due for a letdown and a road game against the Patriots is as good a place as any for it to happen.  

Moreover, Andy Reid seldom comes through in big moments.  Excepting, perhaps, his curling medal from last year’s Olympics.

Congrats to Andy Reid on finally capturing a championship

Take the cheating rat-bastard Bostonians to win and cover.

Los Angeles Rams (-6 ½) @ Denver Broncos

All week long, I keep hearing local radio pundits insist that the Broncos need to run the football more.  

If the defense is in the nickel then run the ball.  

If they stack 8 in the box, then run it anyway because that is what we do best.  

Don’t be tricked into throwing by the defensive scheme, keep pounding the rock!

I love Phil Lindsay.  Freeman is a boss.

But why the $#%& did we pay a QB $18,000,000 a year if launching rookies into a stacked line is a superior alternative to throwing to one of the highest paid receiving corps in the whole freaking league?

The Broncos are done.  Keenum sucks. These clowns are cooked. 

Wade Phillips and his revenge game will go very poorly for the good guys.  

Letting this guy go was almost criminally stupid.

The complete collapse of a once proud franchise will continue unabated.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2 ½) @ Dallas Cowboys

Tune into any national (and occasionally local) radio show and you will, invariably, hear the big personalities say how much better the NFL is when teams like the Raiders and Cowboys are good.

Nonsense. 

Their fans are insufferable and it’s awesome when they suck.

Take the Jags this week.

Chicago Bears (-2 ½) @ Miami Dolphins

Can you imagine anything more intimidating to an outstanding defense then coming off your bye week and running into Ryan Tannehill?

If you can’t, then you have a lot of problems.

This game looks pretty trappy but the Bears are the correct choice here.

Week 4:  0-4

2018 Record: 13-7

Trap Game Record: 4-1

Frey's NFL Picks Week 5: More Angst. More Excellence.

While I know that most of you would love to talk about my impressive 4-0 record last week or, perhaps, my robust 13-3 mark this season, I’m not going to do that.

Instead, I am going to continue my rant from last week about my beloved Broncos.

Watching us play the Chefs was like sitting in a movie theater watching that movie about the US Olympic Hockey Team in 1980 except in this particular film, Herb Brooks leans over to assistant coach Craig Patrick and says:

                ‘Our plan of attack has kept the Soviets off-balance for almost the entire game.  But they are expecting us to continue to do what works.  Let’s change it up and start doing things that don’t work.  If that doesn’t do the trick, we can always give up the lead late in the game and then go back to what was working before but do it in a really vanilla and uncreative way that is unlikely to still work.'

Dwight Eisenhower said that, in war, plans are worthless but planning is indispensible.

We had a good game plan but sometimes you need to step back and look at what is actaully going on  instead of adhering to preconceptions or running the numbers.

Don’t be the idiot who throws the football from the 2 yard line in the Super Bowl when Marshawn Lynch has been violating the Patriots defense with impunity.

The ubiquitous buffoonery from Bolles and the continuation of rubbish QB play notwithstanding, this extremely important game was ours to lose.  Of course, we did just that.

Denver Broncos (+1) @ New York Jets

I know, I know.  I just got done trashing the Broncos. 

But have you actually seen the Jets?

If there is one type of team that Denver matches up well against its teams that are really, really bad.

If the Broncos lose this game to this team, heads are going to roll and everyone in the organization knows it.

The orange and blue win here.  I hope…..

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3 ½)

It causes me physical pain to even mention that a game this crappy is even being played.

Let us speak no more of this.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

It is important to note that in order to be a true fan of a bad organization from an inferior city (Jets/Browns/Bills/etc), one must surrender their critical faculties and equate the absence of sucking with actual competence.

The New Browns Media Campaign 2018

Well done Browns.  You didn’t go 0-16 this year, almost won a couple games against teams that took you lightly, and valiantly choked away a contest against a terrible Raiders team.

It’s a step in the right direction considering the historical ineptitude of your recent past, but not enough to get this type of respect against a solid Ravens squad.

Take the Rat-birds to cover here.

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

Riddle me this good readers:

Why is it that a 1-3 Giants team whose signature win this season was against a mediocre team led by a guy named “Blaine Gabbert” but is still only a 6 point road underdog to a solid team like Carolina?

The Panthers beat good teams at home by more than six points.  They should stomp these buffoons right?

There is one answer and one answer alone:

I know I shouldn’t so it, but I’m falling for it.  Carolina should roll here.

Week 4:  4-0

2018 Record: 13-3

Trap Game Record: 4-0

Frey's NFL Picks Week 4: I'm a Little Peaved

Unscheduled Rant #1

Why is it that week in and week out, we have to watch Devonte Booker run straight into the collective backsides of his own linemen every time he touches the ball?  Booker’s professional highlight reel is like one great big buttfumble gif on autoplay.

Vance Joseph loves the tenacity

The coaching staff's insistence on giving this guy carries, coupled with their repeated praise is an insult to doctors, women, and monkeys.

Even more infuriating is watching Garrett Bolles fold quicker than Superman on laundry day whenever he’s paired against pass-rushers with skill greater than an accounting major from UTEP.

I have it on good authority that the draft room sounded like this when Denver picked him:

OK guys.  This is our first pick of this draft so let’s make sure we get it right and ensure that this Bolles character checks all the boxes <shuffles through some papers>

Scored 9 or less on the Wonderlic test for a position requiring high intellect and football acumen?  Check.

Never played the position until College and then only for a couple years?  Check.

Most penalized player in College Football?  Check.

Hot-head resistant to coaching?  Check.

Rated far behind guys like Ramczyk, Robinson, and Lamp who are still on the board?  Check.

Can’t go wrong here boys.  Pull the trigger…..

Not only is he an obvious bust as a first round pick, but he is a total liability to the team.

We can all see it with these clowns.  So why can’t our coaches? 

They are either inept or they are the puppets of people who are inept.

I’ll keep pulling for Denver, but I’ll be shocked if we finish better than 7-9.

Let’s make some picks before I get grumpy:

Cincinnati Bengals (+5 ½) @ Atlanta Falcons

I figured that it’s been four weeks since the opening kickoff so I might as well screw myself by picking the Bengals.

You’re welcome Atlanta.  

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7 ½)

The sports lover in me wants to think that a talented young player like Sam Darnold will take up the mantle of expectation, hoist his team upon his shoulders, and redeem himself after a poor performance.

The part of me that isn’t a dunderhead knows that “Buttfumble Jr.” is playing a pissed off Jags team on the road.

Jacksonville rolls here.  It might be 12 to 3, but they roll nonetheless.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6 ½)

For the last 3 years, the Patriots look like they are cooked by week 4.  All across the country, the righteous lift their hands to the Gods of the Gridiron and offer thanks that the evil among us is finally exorcised.

Then they win like 11 straight and play in the Super Bowl again.

I truly believe that the Patriots are finally thast “sinking ship” for which we have all longed for so many moons.  

That having been said, Miami sucks.

Take the Pats to win and cover.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans (+3 ½)

If I understand correctly, the Super Bowl champion Eagles are taking a 90 minute plane ride to play a team that can’t decide upon an injured Marcus Mariota or a crappy Blaine Gabbert to lead them to a 15^th consecutive season of mediocrity.

The aforementioned champions are still sporting an excellent defense, and now with their starting QB back in the lineup, are only favored by slightly more than a field goal.

If this isn’t a trap I don’t know what is.

I’m taking the Titans and the points.

Week 2:  3-1

2018 Record: 9-3

Trap Game Record: 3-0

Frey's NFL Picks Week 3: The Gridiron Nostradamus

A lesser man would certainly take this opportunity to brag about a second straight week of going 3 and 1 against the spread.

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OK let’s pick some games!

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (-3) 

I can’t decide whether New Yorkers  are incurable optimists or whether they are simply pompous and delusional.

Remember that ball-hoggy, locker room-killing, no-defense-playing turnover machine Carmelo Anthony who was traded to the Knicks?  It was assumed by these nincompoops out east that liberating him from that cow-town Denver and allowing him to bask in the superiority of New York would somehow turn him into Michael Jordon.

I still laugh at those clowns for that one.

Every shmo that lands in NY is the next big thing:

Yeah we've seen this before....

The “Sam Darnold to Canton” train is just another sad example of either East Coast pomposity or naïve optimism.  Until a few more weeks pass, I’m thinking there is more “Buttfumble” than “Broadway” in this most recent incarnation of “The Next Big Thing”.

I’m doubly pissed that they have compelled me to make a 0-17-1 team one of my picks of the week but the Browns have limited 2 Hall of Fame QBs to 21 points in consecutive weeks.  

Browns not only win but stomp the Jets.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-5)

I love my Broncos. 

In fact, I actively dislike every other team in the NFL and their inferior fan bases.

All of that being said, Denver needed valiant 4^th quarter comebacks to secure last-minute victories, at home, against bottom feeders.

Now they are travelling across the country to have a 11:00 AM game against a solid team with a strong home field advantage. 

Despite his stellar “9” on the Wonderlic (the average offensive tackle score is 26), I suspect Garrett Bolles has like 70 penalties in this environment.

For reference, the median score for a janitor is 17.  I'm not feeling very confident that Bolles plays a heady game.

Their record says, “2-0”.

The eye test says, “gonna get their ass kicked on Sunday.”

Sadly, I think the Ravens roll here.

Chicago Bears (-5 ½) @ Arizona Cardinals

I almost made this my Admiral Akbar Trap Game of the Week but the Bears are on the road for a 1:30 PM kickoff. 

It should be like 145 degrees on the field.

Still, Arizona may be the worst team on the planet not named “The Bills.”

Enough can go wrong in that heat to make this less trappy but Chicago should still win by a TD or more.

Admiral Akbar Trap Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1 ½) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The fact that Pittsburgh needed a blocked field goal to tie a team that hasn’t won a game since 2015 should make them road underdogs against a red hot Bucs team right?  

Not enough?  

How about if they then got smacked around by the Chefs on their home field the very next week?

No?  

Then what if I told you their locker room is in chaos, their all-pro RB refuses to report, the best wide receiver in the NFL is skipping practice, and the coach has lost the team?

Still no?

Either someone knows something I don’t or there has been some major cannabis use by the odds makers.

The professionals at MGM prepare themselves to set the line for the Steelers-Bucs game

I’m not falling for this tomfoolery.  I’m taking the Steelers.

Week 2:  3-1
2018 Record: 6-2
Trap Game Record: 2-0

Frey's NFL Picks: Week 2: Wisdom on the Cheap

Hail and welcome again my friends to your exclusive pass to knowledge!

With week 1 in the books and sporting a robust 3-1 record against the spread, I feel that it is only appropriate to give a shout out to the Cleveland Browns.

In a uniquely Cleveland-esque way, the Browns were finally able to end a historic winless streak by actually not winning.

 

 Dilly Dilly Cleveland.  Dilly Dilly.

For this week’s picks, I think it is only appropriate to embrace the above theme and pay homage to those teams who have provided all football fans with mirth and joy throughout the years.

It worked the last time I did it, so let us resurrect the “don’t pick crappy teams” gambit” and see where it takes us.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ New York Jets

I refuse to accept the premise that beating “The Beard” in Detroit makes these guys not be crappy.

The hurricane of ineptitude that the Jets encountered in Detroit is not a good litmus test.

2 weeks ago Miami would be favored in this game.  I think the rookie QB is going to come back down to earth here.

Los Angeles Charger (-7 ½) @ Buffalo Bills

If we were to pretend the Browns don’t exist, I think it is safe to say that only the Bills could parlay a playoff team into the worst team in the NFL in a single season.

Moreover, these clowns can’t decide which young QB is better than the other.

The answer is obvious.  They’re both shitty. 

I’ll take an injured and dispirited Chargers team on the road to cover.

Yep.  That’s how I feel about the Bills.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-8 ½)

They won’t go 0 and 16, but 0-15-1 is still not out of the question.

The Saints are at home and were totally humiliated by Brigadier General Fitzpatrick last week.

When he's not fighting off Union forces at Manassas Creek, he's dropping 48 on the Saints 

No matter what “Hard Knocks” says, I’ll take the team that doesn’t suck at home over the 0-16-1 guys.

Admiral Akbar Special:

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-5 ½)

This has nothing to do with predictions, but I finally realized where it was that I saw Matt Patricia before:

Hagrid may be a good friend to Harry Potter but, as we all know, the Ministry banned him from using magic.

No magic again this week Hagrid.  The 49ers not only win but kick you in the Dumbledore.

I’ve no idea why this spread isn’t bigger.  A trap perhaps?  Very well, I’ll fall into it.

2018 Season Record: 3-1

2018 Trap Game Record: 1-0

Frey's NFL Picks: Week 1: Making Prognostication Great Again!

Before anything else is said, let us raise our voices in praise to the beloved Buffs and Broncos

A hearty bonjour friends, family, and random NFL fans who may have inadvertently stumbled upon this website! 

The clamoring has become unbearable and it is abundantly clear that a proper dose of pontification and prediction is long overdue.

Fear not, for your apothecary is here and good football health can finally be achieved.

Our world has changed considerably since the last time I dusted off the old crystal ball and took pen to paper.

When last The Invectives were penned, the Bills were rebuilding….again, Phillip Rivers was a wang, the Browns were a laughing stock, and Bill Belichick’s transition into an old woman continued unabated.

Fast-forward 21 months……

Yep.  Still the same. 

So let us not worry about who stopped writing what for 2 years or whose readers may or may not have been neglected and get down to the business of picking games.

Atlanta Falcons (+3 ½) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Watching Nick Foles through pre-season and training camp leads me to one of the following conclusions:

a)      He has Mononucleosis.

b)      New England played with only 9 defenders in last year’s Super Bowl.

I’ll have to watch the tape again but I’m leaning toward Mono.

You can have a Super Bowl hangover, injuries to key positions, and sub-par quarterback play and still eke out a “W” in your home opener.  Just not against quality opposition.

I like the Falcons to cover and possibly win outright.

Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-2 ½)

Having already established that it is not 2016, it is more than a little surprising to see the line for this game set as though it were.

Carolina is coming off an 11-5 season where they played extremely well down the stretch before dropping a heartbreaker in the playoffs to the Saints.

The Cowboys missed the playoffs entirely and only eclipsed .500 because they played a Philly team who benched damn near their entire roster having clinched home field.

I think a bus full of yahoos from Texas took a trip to Vegas and dropped a bunch of oil money on Dallas.

Get out yer cash boys, it's bettin' time!

I’ll take the better team at home all day and happily lay the points.

Los Angeles Rams (-4) @ Oakland Raiders

I have a great idea.  Hear me out.

I know our defense sucks right?  This is great.  Just stay with me.

Let’s get rid of the best pass rusher in the NFL from an already crappy defense and get a couple mid-first round picks a couple years down the road.

If we are unconscionably lucky and everything works out perfectly, one of those picks may become almost as good as what we gave up by the time the 2023 season rolls around.   

Then...BOOM!

That’s when we’ll cash in!

John Gruden at the press conference announcing his hiring as Head Coach

God Bless you John Gruden.

Admiral Akbar Special:

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-6)

This may be the trappiest game I’ve seen in many moons. 

Have the people betting on this game even seen Buffalo play?

Their offensive line is in shambles, Shady McCoy may or may not have been interchangeably roughing up and then bribing women, and the Bills are starting an inexperienced, inaccurate, and underwhelming quarterback against a good team in a very hostile environment.

Oh, and the quarterback we’ll be seeing isn’t their hotshot rookie.  He sucks too bad to play.  Say hello to last year’s mediocre rookie instead!

I’m not sure what I think about the Ravens yet, but I know for certain that Buffalo is rubbish.

If this is a trap, then I’m going after the cheese anyway.

Ravens cover.

2018 Season Record:

2018 Trap Game Record:

Frey's NFL Picks: Week 12

Sadly, while enjoying tables laden with food, surrounded by the love of family members and the good cheer of friends young and old, we often forget to offer thanks for the force that keeps us strong and secures our preeminence among the nations of the world.

Yep.  I am talking about football.  The REAL football.  You know, the one where you don’t use your feet.  American football.

So with humble heart and clear mind, let’s pick some games and remember to pity all those foolish foreigners who can’t possibly understand the coolness.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4)

Back in the 17^th century, the Swedish army under Gustav Adolphus was the envy of Europe. 

Green Bay used to be good back in the 17^th century as well.

I’m betting on neither the Swedes nor the Packers to kick anyone’s ass going forward.

Aaron Rodgers poses for a team portrait the last time the Packers were good

 I’ll take the overrated upstart in Philly over the overrated decrepit carcass of Green Bay.

Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears (+4 ½)

Lots of teams in the NFL suck.

But in order to Chicago suck you have to start winning games late in the year to thoroughly jack up your draft position for next season.

I think it’s about time for this to start up.

Answer:  Who are the Bears?

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-3)

This game looks pretty trappy to me on paper but my apprehension is mitigated by the fact that while Denver is coming off a bye and healthy as an ox, the Chiefs are coming off a home loss to the dog-butt Buccaneers and are as healthy as that chick from Sixteen Candles with the neck brace.

I like the beloved Broncos at home in this one.

San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans (+1 ½)

I’m about the last guy on the planet to talk positively about the Houston Texans.

I’m still not going to talk positively about the Texans.  They’re crappy.

But when, prey tell, did the Chargers become uncrappy enough to be a road favorite against any team not called “The Browns”.

Phillip Rivers is a wang and this game is a trap but I’m falling for it anyway.

I’ll take me some Texas ya’ll.

Go Buffs!

Season Record: 24-19-1

Trap Game Record: 7-4