Sunday, December 9, 2018

Frey's NFL Picks Week 14: Gotta Love the Uncertainty!




As I sat down to consider the game son tap this week, I was forcibly reminded why the NFL continues (despite a multitude of controversies and asinine rule changes) to grow in popularity.

In no other major US sport can fan bases across the country harbor any reasonable expectation that their respective teams have a legitimate shot at mounting a deep drive into the playoffs. 

Take, for example, the fact that teams labeled as “mediocre at best and abysmal at worst”  by most experts (Chicago, Seattle, and Houston) are an impressive 24-12 collectively and all appear playoff bound.

More importantly, it is not a stretch to say that any one of these teams could do some serious damage in the playoffs and even bring home the Lombardy Trophy if a few bounces go their way.

Conversely, nobody could have predicted that teams such as Atlanta, Green Bay, and Jacksonville, despite the nearly universal belief in their excellence, would sport a combined 12-23-1 amidst coach firings and calls for dismemberment.

Contrast this with the NBA.  At the beginning of every season since the early 80’s, all but 2 or 3 teams have absolutely no shot at winning the championship and everybody knows it.

In baseball, one can usually just pick 1 of 4 big market/big payroll teams and be assured that they will be in the World Series while everyone else just sees if they can get lucky enough to get to the playoffs for their annual butt kicking.

The NHL is a bit better in this respect but barring mass retirements or catastrophic injuries, the teams who were good the year before and are predicted to be good are almost always good.   There was little or no chance that the Washington Capitals and Nashville Predators would finish 10 games below .500 and miss the playoffs while the Florida Panthers bring home the President’s Trophy.

This type of craziness happens all the time in the NFL and I, for one, love the uncertainty.



It’s picking time!


Denver Broncos (-3 ½) @ San Francisco 49ers

The 2018 Broncos are the only team I’ve ever seen that loses their best players and gets better.  I suspect it forces our coaching staff to actually create game plans that play to the strengths of the team instead of forcing square pegs into round holes like we’ve been doing since Kubiak was coach.

With Sanders and Harris now out for the season we’ll probably win by like 50.

I’m going with a hunch and going with the cover.


Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (+1 ½)

Yep.  I’m taking Cleveland.  And may God have mercy on my soul.

I got this message after selecting the Browns....



Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-4)

I was tempted to make this the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week as I cannot see any legitimate reason why a team that was shut out by a Jacksonville squad that quit 4 weeks ago is only a 4 point underdog, on the road, to a team that has won 9 straight games.

A captured letter from Andrew Luck follow last week's fiasco.


Don’t over think it.  Take the Texans.


Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (+3 ½)

And so it comes to the trap.

The Bears just gave up 30 points to a Giants team whose only competent players are a rookie and a bearded malcontent.

Furthermore, Trubisky is still banged up despite the fact that he’ll play.

Rams should roll in this game but I cannot shake the feeling that Chicago shows up big today.



I’m not going to fall into this trap.  Bears and the points please.

Week 13:  3-1

2018 Record: 27-24-1

Trap Game Record: 7-6


Trap Game Record: 7-6

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