Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Divisional Playoffs

One might say, and not without cause, that I am the Cincinnati Bengals of prognosticators.

After another stellar regular season picking against the spread, the moment the playoffs arrived I valiantly threw up on my shoes and soiled my smallclothes.

Initially, when faced with the ignominy of my performance, I was forcibly reminded of the motivational quote I often espouse to my children when a faced with adversity:

But, as they say in the industry, the show must go on and a simple 5-2 record in the next 3 weeks gets me back in the black.

So in the time honored tradition of totally overreacting to a poor showing, I am going to allow my gut to have a voice in this week's installment as it seems listening exclusively to my brain did us all a disservice last week.

Let's pick some games.


Kansas City Cheifs  (+5)  @ New England Patriots

Brain Says:

"Never.  And I mean NEVER, bet against the New England Patriots when they have an extra week to figure out some way to cheat the system and are playing at home.  The nefarious Bostonians have playoff experience oozing out of every pour and are getting their top receiver back.  Brady vs. Alex Smith?  Really?  Don't overthink this.  The Chiefs are still coached by a man who would burn a timeout challenging the spot on a touchback.  Don't be stupid.  Take the champs at home.

Gut Says: 

"The Patriots are a hot mess.  They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, the head coach showed up for a press conference with a big black eye, and it appears their players have been doing PCP all week and wandering into police stations.  Brady has a bum ankle, Gronk is ailing, and their receiving corps is about as durable as Glass Joe from "Punch Out".  Can you not sense that the power of the dark side is waning?  The Chiefs have the "team of destiny" feel about them.  Ride the hot streak my friend.  Ride it!"

He'll be out of the game by half time.

Winner:  The Gut.  Chiefs Cover.


Green Bay Packers  @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Brain Says:

"Did you not see the last game these guys played?  Arizona is superior in every respect on both sides of the ball.  Sure Aaron Rodger looked like...well...Aaron Rodgers last week, but remember it was against a team with a shitty defense that padded their stats against a slew of abysmal NFC East opponents down the stretch.  Arizona already dominated the Packers in this very venue just a few weeks ago.  Nothing has changed except the Cardinals are now well-rested also. You don't even need a brain to make this pick.  The Cards Win.  Big."

I don't know why, but I laugh every time I see this shot from the last time these teams played.

Gut Says: 

"Hey, remember last week when all of the QB's with playoff experience won their games?  Aaron Rodgers is among the most elite and battle-hardened players in the league at the most important position.  Carson Palmer has an 0-2 post-season record.  The Pack has absolutely no pressure to do anything.  They are a wildcard team, playing on the road against a team that beat them like circus monkeys the last time out.  Remember how the Ravens beat the Broncos in 2013 after getting punked earlier in the year?  How about the Jets in 2010 over the Patriots just a couple weeks after getting wrecked 45-3?  You underestimate a loose team with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback at the helm at your peril.  Logic Shmogic.  Go Pack Go."

Winner: The Brain. Arizona blows them out.

Seattle Seahawks (+3)  @ Carolina Panthers

Brain Says:

"Teams do not go 15-1 by accident.  The Panthers are solid on both sides of the ball and have a dynamic, charismatic, play-making machine behind center.  They do not have the experience that the Seahawks enjoy but they've been to the post-season dance enough to know how to handle their business.  Seattle has got to be tired.  They have played almost an entire extra season of football over the past 3 years when factoring in the playoffs.  Only 2 teams in NFL history have ever gone to 3 or more straight Superbowls (Dolphins/Bills).  I know the 'Hawks Defense has only given up 1 TD in the past 6 road games but Carolina hung a ton of points on them already this year and hasn't lost at home in over 400 days. If you don't take the healthy, rested, 15-1 team at home I'm going to hemorrhage. "

Gut Says: 

"Seattle's game last week was exactly what the Doctor ordered.  They escaped a frigid, hard-hitting game with very little injury and the conditions made their offense so inept that there will be nothing of value to scout for the Panthers.  Something about this Seahawks team frightens me.  Even in their loss to the Rams, the defense was stout as hell and if the special teams hadn't pooped the bed they would have won in going away.  Other teams preach the "revenge game" as a motivating force but the Seahawks are filled with a bunch of pissed off guys who actually mean it.  Russell Wilson always comes up big when it counts and the offense is going to want to prove their quality after the fiasco last week.  Having Beast Mode back is going to set the tone early.  Seattle is oozing the 'vibe-o-kick-ass'. Don't deny that you feel it."

It can't hurt having this guy back.

Winner:  The Gut.  It'll be close, but the Seahawks will cover the 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-7)

Brain Says:

"Let's be honest here.  Nearly everything is coming up Denver this week.  They are at home, they have 4 starters back in the lineup that were missing when these 2 teams last played, and their opponent is now the one riddled with injury.  Pittsburgh's top play-maker is out and they are down to their 3rd string running back.  Rothlesberger is so hurt that this may be the first time since 2010 that Peyton Manning has been the QB with the better arm going into a game.  Denver's secondary is fast and reasonably healthy finally.  Rag-armed QB's without their best weapons do not fare well in the mile-high city.  Moreover, the defense is pissed-off after getting torched earlier by the Steelers and should come out flying.  Toss in the fact that Kubiak finally got his head out of his ass and benched Schofield and the Broncos are almost certain to win if they protect the football."

Gut Says: 

"Don't do it Frey.  Don't you dare pick Denver to win this game.  Have you not suffered enough of the jinx throughout the years to know better?  This feels just like 2006 all over again.  It's too perfect. In 2 weeks we go from maybe missing the playoffs to getting the first seed.  The worst matchup for us is coming into town on the heels of a bloodbath and is riddled by injury at some very important positions.  Our next opponent is either a banged up Patriots team that can't win in Denver unless Tim Tebow is playing or a Chiefs team coached by the ever buffonish Andy Reid.  The Broncos have ridden a wave of good fortune all season.  Can you not sense the catastrophic letdown?  Remember also that Gary Kuboak is unable to defeat any opponent in the post-season except for the laughably inept and self-imploding Bengals.  Don't add the poison of your jinx to this delicate mix.  Don't do it you bastard!"

Winner: The Brain. And may God have mercy on my soul.

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Wild Card Edition

And so, my friends, begins my favorite time of the year.

An entire season of blood, sweat, toil, and tears for 12 franchises now culminates in this most excellent of events.  The NFL Playoffs.

Justly, the pitiful dreams and ambitions of lesser cities and their idiot fans lie crushed like bugs, tossed into the great celestial trash heap like so many empty vodka bottles from a Cleveland Browns QB's Wednesday night bender.

So, in honor of the season, I would like to pass on a special message to the 20 cities who, yet again, sit staring longingly at the TV while my beloved Broncos and other competent teams take the field in January.

You suck.  All of you.

Let's pick some games.


Kansas City Cheifs  @ Houston Texans (+3½)

While the Chefs have been garnering most of the press due to their 10 game winning streak against 8 dog poop teams, an injured Ben Rothlesberger, and the mutilated carcass of Peyton Manning, the Texans have quietly notched up many wins of their own behind the best defense in the NFL over the final 5 weeks of the season.

Both teams are hot, neither team has much playoff experience, and both are pretty healthy.

The difference in this game is that JJ Watt took has cast off last week and had 3 sacks.

Houston is at home, the best defensive force in the NFL is finally healthy, and when last  checked, Andy Reid still coaches the Chefs.

This guy > Alex Smith

They may not win the game, but I like the Texans to cover.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½)  @ Cincinnati Bengals

Ben Rothlesberger:

Regular Season Victories: 114
Playoff Victories: 15
Super Bowl Rings: 2

A.J. McCarran:

Regular Season Victories: 2
Playoff Victories: Never Been
Insanely Hot Wife: 1

If McCarran loses, he will have to trudge home to this.  I expect 3 picks in the first half.

If this were a calendar shoot, I'm taking the Bengals. 

Since it's football, give me the team with experience.


Seattle Seahawks (-3½)  @ Minnesota Vikings

The weather guys tell me that the game temperature will likely drop to -23 when the windchill is factored in.

Now on its face, one would think this a significant advantage to the Vikings.

That's crap and here's why.

Russell Wilson was born in Ohio and played College Football in frigid Wisconsin.

Teddy Bridgewater was born in Miami and played his College Ball in Louisville where it once dropped to like 50 degrees.

Now who do you think is gonna handle this weather better?

Skip the beach-bum and take the 'Hawks.


Green Bay Packers  @ Washington Redskins (Pick)

Somewhere, in the land where little red-faced men open their own steakhouses, Mike Shanahan sees DeAngelo Hall and Kirk Cousin kicking ass and flips Daniel Snyder a bird so violently that he pulls a muscle in his neck.

I mention it often, but this may be one of those seminal moments of two ships passing in the night.

But then again, Daniel Snyder still owns the Redskins so its probably just a blip in the radar.

The Redskins' logo until Dan Snyder sells the team to someone who isn't a wang.

Still, ride the blip my friends.

Picking Cousins over Rodgers is probably stupid, but Green Bay looks like the dumpster fire now, not the 'Skins.

Week 17 Record:  2-2

Regular Season Record: 39-27-2

Trap Game Record: 10-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 17

One of the things that makes NFL football the greatest sport on the planet (aside from the fact that it confounds foreigners) is the lovely dichotomy of certainty and randomness that both soothes and excites the senses each season.

It is the yin and the yang.  

It is the sweet and the sour.

It is exactly what we need to bring balance and purpose to life in a way that is real and observable.

We enjoy the peace of knowing that some things will never change.

God hates Cleveland and they will suck.

New England will, through a combination of competence and egregious cheating, be good.

Buffalo will under-perform no matter the coach.

Phillip Rivers will be a wang.

Saint Louis will play just well enough to NOT fire Jeff Fisher.

Conversely, unlike other major sports where, more often than not, only 3 or 4 teams can be seriously considered as legitimate contenders, everyone has a chance to do something.

Did anyone really expect that the Arizona Cardinals would go 14-2?

Looking at the preseason projections, not a single analyst from ESPN or CBS picked the Redskins to win the NFL East.  Your NFC East champion?  You got!  The Washington Dumpsterfires.

I was certain that the 'Skins would be terrible this year.  By Odin I love the NFL!

Peyton Manning tears his planter fascia and then looks like Mr. Burns from the Simpsons.  Drew Brees has the same injury and throws for 412 yards and 3 TD's.  I certainly didn't expect that development.

As the final games of the regular season commence, it seems only fitting that my experiment regarding trap games would be inconclusive.  This is the NFL.  Nothing is certain.  Except that God hates Cleveland.


New England Patriots (-8)  @ Miami Dolphins

You know that when the wives of Dolphins players are tweeting about how much Ryan Tennehill sucks you are in trouble.

You know that when the organization and other players do not come out vociferously in support of their starting QB that you are in deep #$%&.

The Dolphins are a diaper fire, the Patriots need this game to secure home field throughout the playoffs, and the ONLY thing Miami can now do to screw themselves worse is to win and mess up their draft position.

Take the cheating bastards to win and cover on the road.

The Dolphins await the opening kickoff in a game the Patriots desperately need.

Oakland Raiders (+7)  @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is rolling no doubt but the nature of their victories and the quality of their opposition have been less than stellar.

The Raiders are not shamefully bad for the first time since Al Gore invented the internet and would really like to end the season on the right note.

The Chefs still need this game to win this division with a Broncos loss and to avoid the possibility of playing in Cincinnati next week.

They'll be playing so uptight that you couldn't squeeze a greased BB up their butts.

They may win, but it will be close.


Washington Redskins  @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The Redskins have locked up their playoff seeding and this game is totally meaningless to them.

The Cowboys could really benefit from a loss this week in terms of securing an improved draft position.

So we have a team that needs to lose vs. a team that doesn't care if it wins and will likely play scrubs to avoid injury.

I just don't think the mummy of Ramses II is smart enough to order a home defeat to a hated rival.

Regardless, anyone who watches this game is an idiot.


Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3)

And so, good friends, we come to the trap game of the year.

While statistically it is unlikely that the Colts can unseat the Texans as division champion even with a Houston loss, this game is important to the men down south for a number of reasons.

1) Their QB is back for the first time in 2 weeks and needs a good performance to give confidence to his team leading into a probably 1st round matchup with a red-hot Chiefs team.

2)  A home loss to a mediocre opponent the week before the playoffs is OK for perennial playoff teams like New England, Denver, or Seattle.  Houston can't be pulling that crap.  the are Houston.

3) Going into the playoffs 8-8 just looks stupid.  Don't do it.

It seems pretty easy on paper right?

Week 16 Record:  1-2-1

Season Record: 37-25-2

Trap Game Record: 9-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 16

Under normal circumstances, I might be tempted to spend this week's blog intro celebrating Dallas' continued misfortune.

Perhaps I would then meander into the always interesting topic of my extreme competence when it involves prognostication.

Undoubtedly, I would finish up by complaining bitterly about the Broncos' Offensive Coaching staff and their inability to make any sort of meaningful adjustments either at half-time or as the game progresses.

Instead, I will speak about this Darkest of Days for one Peyton Manning.

As you may have heard, Al Jazeera is reporting that Manning is one of several athletes that took HGH in 2011 to overcome injuries.

The impeccable source (n pharmacy intern who may or may not have even worked at the institute in question) has since recanted his story publicly, claiming he was messing with the Al Jazeera "Undercover Reporter" who looked like he was simply trying to steal industry information and had no idea what he was talking about.

Bollocks I say.

If a single un-vetted source who isn't even a pharmacist and wasn't involved in anything whatsoever is good enough for a stand-up organization like Al Jazeera then it's good enough for me.

Al Jazeera's marketing team must consist entirely of baboons

Obviously a cover-up is in play here.

Now allow me to wind this up as I am engaged in other masterpieces of reporting by Al Jazeera such as "Holocaust Schmolocaust," "Why 13 Year Old Girls Love ISIS," and "Marijuana Linked to Sitting Around and Getting High."



Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 ½)  @ New Orleans Saints

I watched a QB with a torn planter fasciitis play for the first 8 weeks of the season.  I ain't picking another one to win a game and cover a spread even if his opponent is Jacksonville.

One team is sinking and the other rising.  The question is have they finally passed each other heading in the opposite direction?

Jags left.  Saints right.

Yes.  The answer is Yes.

New England Patriots (-1½)  @ New York Jets

This was very nearly my trap game of the week.

The Jets are not a bad squad by any means but do not pose the match-up problem for New England that they do for other teams.

I suspect that, as usual, Revis will shut down whichever receiver he is tasked with covering.

Whoopitdy-Do.

There is only one dude you need to shutdown who catches balls for the Patriots and his name ain't "LaFell" or "Amendola".

New England will not yet know if they have clinched home field for the playoffs given that Cincinnati and Denver don't play until Monday so they will probably just win this one and then rest their guys.

Cincinnati Bengals  @ Denver Broncos (-3)

It may be too early to say this, but I believe that both the starting QB and the O.C. are playing/coaching for a big contract and position on the staff respectively.

You cannot go 3 games without scoring in the second half of games and you cannot stare down your first read and then take a sack every time they are covered.

I think this is a major gut-check for Denver and from what I have seen from these guys this year, I believe they will come through.

That and they are playing a backup QB at home.

Take the Broncos here.

Houston Texans (-2½) @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee, when healthy, is slightly better than rubbish.

When Zach Mettenberger gets the start for an injured Marcus Mariota, the Philadelphia 76ers and the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers can be heard stifling a chuckle.

Houston is playing for their playoff lives.

I like the Texans to win 5-0 or something like that.

This game is so trappy I am almost feel guilty writing about it.

Week 15 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 36-23-1

Trap Game Record: 8-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 15

Well my friends, we had a first last week.

I missed 3 out of 4 picks and the only one I got right was the trap game.

It is indeed a pleasant surprise to have climbed to .500 in trap picks this year as I am now guaranteed a better trap-game winning percentage on the season than the Colorado Rockies will ever have again in our lifetimes.

You know who is not .500 and is going to miss the playoffs this year in a perfect representation of karmic forces?  That's right.  The Dallas Cowboys!

If ever you find yourself sitting in a hall of worship, at a pub with friends, or reading philosophical works, look to this season and purge all feelings of doubt about a higher power.

The Universe has a way of making things right and visiting misfortune on a team run by the mummy of Ramses II has restored the faith of millions who may have occasionally questioned their own worldview.

Jerry Jones fields questions about the Greg Hardy signing

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-12 ½)

When I first saw this spread I thought, "Damn.  That's a lot of points."

When I took another look I decided that no amount of points would make me comfortable taking Tennessee on the road against these guys.

That having been said, some of you may know that I found Belichick's celebrity look-alike (See Below)

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Washington Redskins

Prove wrong Kirk Cousins.  Prove me wrong....

Oh #$%@.

Did I just take the Bills again?

.......

Green Bay Packers (-2 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

While I will admit that Oakland is an improved team under their new coach, allow me to remind everyone that this is the same team that had negative 12 yards of offense by halftime last week.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will not be kicking field goals every time they have a first and 10 in the red zone.

Of course, my fantasy team, AP's Discount Switch Hut, would love it if Mason Crosby kicked a couple FG's today....

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)

This line cannot be praise for the Bears so it must be a damning condemnation of the Vikings.

A steady dose of AP makes a win win and cover a foregone conclusion.

Therefore, it can be concluded that this is indeed:

Week 14 Record:  1-3

Season Record: 33-22-1

Trap Game Record: 7-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 14

Well.....I'd say that I was happy to be back in The States but then I'd be a lying bastard.

However, because I have kids, I'll give the obligatory "I'm happy to be back home" so I that everyone reading can say what a great family guy I am and we can all move on feeling peace in our hearts.

As many of you have undoubtedly noticed, 2 long-expected events occurred:

1) The weekly trap game has resumed kicking my arse.

2) Peyton Manning's injuries become worse and worse with every game the Osweiler-led Broncos win.

It should, by now, be obvious to all what is happening here.  Brock Osweiler is drawing upon Manning's life force in an NFL version of Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Grey.

Let's hope it ends better for the good guys than it did in the novel.  

Go Broncos!

Now lets pick some games.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2 ½)

Why this should be a trap game:

I find it incredible that odds makers would have us believe that a healthy 10-2 Cincinnati team, at home, is only favored by a Field Goal.  Did they find Andy Dalton hiding in Justin Beiber's bathroom during a heroin bust or something?

Why it isn't a trap:

History and rivalry.  Pittsburgh has a history of showing up big in big games while the Bengals usually poop the bed. 

It's never a trap when this guy is at the helm in a big game.

With a playoff spot on the line, I expect the Steelers to come out with a controlled desperation that will put early pressure on the Bengals.  The only question at hand is whether the better team weathers the storm and pulls out a win.

I think they do.

San Diego Chargers @  Kansas City Chiefs (-7½)

Why this should be a trap game:

The weather forecast calls for strong winds.  It is hard to throw in string winds.  San Diego can't run the ball and now they will have a hard time throwing it also.  The Chefs are at home and now the Chargers will suck even more than usual.  This spread is waaaaayyyy too small.

No explanation necessary here.  We all know my thoughts on Phyllis.

Why it isn't a trap:

The weather forecast calls for strong winds.  If Phyllis Rivers has trouble throwing the ball then Rag-arm Smith may as well just bench himself.  Instead, I suspect the Chefs will simply hand the ball off and run it up the gut.  However, rain is also in the forecast which adds the turn-over element to the mix.  With this uncertainty present, a double-digit spread is risky business.

I still like KC here to cover the TD+ spread.

Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (-1)

Why this should be a trap game:

Last week's gaffe notwithstanding, Chicago has been playing much better football of late.  They are at home, reasonably healthy, and playing an opposing quarterback who is far more Mr. Hyde than Dr. Jekyll when it comes to performing on the road.

Why it isn't a trap:

Chicago and Washington both suck.  It's hardly a shock when teams this inconsistent play worse than expected.

Daaaa Bears should win but it wouldn't floor me if they drop an easy one.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-6 ½) 

Why this should be a trap game:

I haven't seen a team crash and burn this violently after an auspicious start since the Josh McDaniels-led Broncos started 6-0 but lost 8 of their last 10.  They can no longer run the ball, Matt Ryan looks like some bastardized version of Brady Quinn, and they are playing on the road against a healthy, confident, UNBEATEN division foe.

Why it isn't a trap:

It's a trap.  

Week 13 Record:  2-2

Season Record: 32-19-1

Trap Game Record: 6-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 13: Vacation Edition

Telegram From Frey:

In London.  Stop.

Surrounded by Limeys.  Stop.

They Think Football is Some Game That Involves Using Your Feet.  Stop.

Posting Before I am Found.  Stop.



Philadelphia Eagles (+13) @ New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-6 ½)

Kansas City Chiefs (-2 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-3)

Week 8 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 30-17-1

Trap Game Record: 6-6