After another stellar regular season picking against the spread, the moment the playoffs arrived I valiantly threw up on my shoes and soiled my smallclothes.
Initially, when faced with the ignominy of my performance, I was forcibly reminded of the motivational quote I often espouse to my children when a faced with adversity:
But, as they say in the industry, the show must go on and a simple 5-2 record in the next 3 weeks gets me back in the black.
So in the time honored tradition of totally overreacting to a poor showing, I am going to allow my gut to have a voice in this week's installment as it seems listening exclusively to my brain did us all a disservice last week.
Let's pick some games.
Kansas City Cheifs (+5) @ New England Patriots
Brain Says:
"Never. And I mean NEVER, bet against the New England Patriots when they have an extra week to figure out some way to cheat the system and are playing at home. The nefarious Bostonians have playoff experience oozing out of every pour and are getting their top receiver back. Brady vs. Alex Smith? Really? Don't overthink this. The Chiefs are still coached by a man who would burn a timeout challenging the spot on a touchback. Don't be stupid. Take the champs at home.
Gut Says:
"The Patriots are a hot mess. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, the head coach showed up for a press conference with a big black eye, and it appears their players have been doing PCP all week and wandering into police stations. Brady has a bum ankle, Gronk is ailing, and their receiving corps is about as durable as Glass Joe from "Punch Out". Can you not sense that the power of the dark side is waning? The Chiefs have the "team of destiny" feel about them. Ride the hot streak my friend. Ride it!"
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| He'll be out of the game by half time. |
Winner: The Gut. Chiefs Cover.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Brain Says:
"Did you not see the last game these guys played? Arizona is superior in every respect on both sides of the ball. Sure Aaron Rodger looked like...well...Aaron Rodgers last week, but remember it was against a team with a shitty defense that padded their stats against a slew of abysmal NFC East opponents down the stretch. Arizona already dominated the Packers in this very venue just a few weeks ago. Nothing has changed except the Cardinals are now well-rested also. You don't even need a brain to make this pick. The Cards Win. Big."
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| I don't know why, but I laugh every time I see this shot from the last time these teams played. |
Gut Says:
"Hey, remember last week when all of the QB's with playoff experience won their games? Aaron Rodgers is among the most elite and battle-hardened players in the league at the most important position. Carson Palmer has an 0-2 post-season record. The Pack has absolutely no pressure to do anything. They are a wildcard team, playing on the road against a team that beat them like circus monkeys the last time out. Remember how the Ravens beat the Broncos in 2013 after getting punked earlier in the year? How about the Jets in 2010 over the Patriots just a couple weeks after getting wrecked 45-3? You underestimate a loose team with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback at the helm at your peril. Logic Shmogic. Go Pack Go."
Winner: The Brain. Arizona blows them out.
Brain Says:
"Teams do not go 15-1 by accident. The Panthers are solid on both sides of the ball and have a dynamic, charismatic, play-making machine behind center. They do not have the experience that the Seahawks enjoy but they've been to the post-season dance enough to know how to handle their business. Seattle has got to be tired. They have played almost an entire extra season of football over the past 3 years when factoring in the playoffs. Only 2 teams in NFL history have ever gone to 3 or more straight Superbowls (Dolphins/Bills). I know the 'Hawks Defense has only given up 1 TD in the past 6 road games but Carolina hung a ton of points on them already this year and hasn't lost at home in over 400 days. If you don't take the healthy, rested, 15-1 team at home I'm going to hemorrhage. "
Gut Says:
"Seattle's game last week was exactly what the Doctor ordered. They escaped a frigid, hard-hitting game with very little injury and the conditions made their offense so inept that there will be nothing of value to scout for the Panthers. Something about this Seahawks team frightens me. Even in their loss to the Rams, the defense was stout as hell and if the special teams hadn't pooped the bed they would have won in going away. Other teams preach the "revenge game" as a motivating force but the Seahawks are filled with a bunch of pissed off guys who actually mean it. Russell Wilson always comes up big when it counts and the offense is going to want to prove their quality after the fiasco last week. Having Beast Mode back is going to set the tone early. Seattle is oozing the 'vibe-o-kick-ass'. Don't deny that you feel it."
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| It can't hurt having this guy back. |
Winner: The Gut. It'll be close, but the Seahawks will cover the 3.
Brain Says:
"Let's be honest here. Nearly everything is coming up Denver this week. They are at home, they have 4 starters back in the lineup that were missing when these 2 teams last played, and their opponent is now the one riddled with injury. Pittsburgh's top play-maker is out and they are down to their 3rd string running back. Rothlesberger is so hurt that this may be the first time since 2010 that Peyton Manning has been the QB with the better arm going into a game. Denver's secondary is fast and reasonably healthy finally. Rag-armed QB's without their best weapons do not fare well in the mile-high city. Moreover, the defense is pissed-off after getting torched earlier by the Steelers and should come out flying. Toss in the fact that Kubiak finally got his head out of his ass and benched Schofield and the Broncos are almost certain to win if they protect the football."
Gut Says:
"Don't do it Frey. Don't you dare pick Denver to win this game. Have you not suffered enough of the jinx throughout the years to know better? This feels just like 2006 all over again. It's too perfect. In 2 weeks we go from maybe missing the playoffs to getting the first seed. The worst matchup for us is coming into town on the heels of a bloodbath and is riddled by injury at some very important positions. Our next opponent is either a banged up Patriots team that can't win in Denver unless Tim Tebow is playing or a Chiefs team coached by the ever buffonish Andy Reid. The Broncos have ridden a wave of good fortune all season. Can you not sense the catastrophic letdown? Remember also that Gary Kuboak is unable to defeat any opponent in the post-season except for the laughably inept and self-imploding Bengals. Don't add the poison of your jinx to this delicate mix. Don't do it you bastard!"
Winner: The Brain. And may God have mercy on my soul.
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