Frey's NFL Picks: Championship Weekend Edition

The results of my prognostications last week harkened me back to the heady and foolish days of my youth.

I listened to my head when my gut was right and I listened to my gut when my head was spot on.

Given some of the dubious decisions I’ve made in my past, it is nothing short of a minor miracle that I’m not writing this blog from a dumpster in Idaho.

In the interest of bolstering my quickly fading self-esteem leading up to the picks this week, I have opted to travel the illusory but always rewarding path of self-delusion.

There was nothing wrong with my picks last week.  They were, in fact, totally correct both logically and intuitively.

It was the games themselves that were wrong.  Not my picks.   My picks were spot on.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos

Manning vs. Brady.  Nationwide vs. UGGs.  Papa John’s vs. Filming opponents’ practices, disconnecting headsets, and deflating footballs.

This is the narrative that is being forced down our gullets.

Listen, we know that these guys have played each other a bunch and that both are somewhat storied in their accomplishments.

The lasting historical memory may indeed be that of 2 aging generals facing each other in one final battle before the ravages of time lay waste to their respective empires.

But this game, this ONE game, is not about quarterbacks, cheating, or even UGGs:  It is about coaching.

Last week, Denver’s play-calling was about the only thing I was able to reliably predict. 

This type of “we’ll just line up, do what we do, and dare you to stop us” idiocy might have worked for the ’72 Dolphins or in the 4^th quarter against an exhausted Steelers team ravaged by injury, but it won’t work against the Patriots in the playoffs.

Our opponent is creative and experienced.  To those who remind me that we already beat these guys once, I refer them to the scene in Maverick where Mel Gibson’s character purposefully loses every hand for the first hour but then, when the stakes are highest, he seizes the pot.

Bill Belichick on the sidelines during New England's previous game against the Broncos.

NFL pundits across the nation said that New England had to establish the running game to slow down an impressive Chiefs pass rush to win the game.

  

The Chiefs obviously felt the  same and game planned accordingly because it was the safe bet.

What did the Patriots do?  They threw 14 straight passes and left their opponents wondering what the hell just happened.

Kubiak’s dogged insistence on trotting out a beloved (albeit chronically over-matched) Michael Schofield, coupled with an uninspired and unimaginative game plan that only seems to work in the 4^th quarter, does not cause my cup to floweth over with confidence.

I want a coach who goes for it on 4^th and 3 at mid-field.  

I want to see a hurry-up offense in the first quarter.  

I want an onside kick, a flea flicker, a reverse, a right tackle who doesn’t suck. 

We may see some of these things Sunday but the practitioners will not be wearing Orange.

This incarnation of the Broncos reminds me in many ways of the 1980’s Broncos teams under Dan Reeves.  Play not to lose for the first 55 minutes and then let ‘er rip.

Ahhh Yes.  I remember it well.  Those were some pretty damn good teams.

They were not champions.

It breaks my heart, but I must take the bad guys to win and to cover.

Belichick and Brady discuss offensive play selection during a timeout.

 Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Now THIS is the game with the compelling QB matchup.

The league’s best offense against the NFL’s most dynamic player should make for an extremely entertaining game.

I like some of the match-ups for the Cardinals here on both sides of the ball and some of the intangibles also play in their favor:

1)      They have an extremely fast defense which should serve to negate some of Cam Newton’s play-making abilities.

2)      The Cards have savvy, athletic receivers and an extremely accurate quarterback to get them the ball.

3)      Josh Norman can traipse around telling everyone what a stud he is but he’s about half as good as he thinks he is.  The other members of Carolina’s secondary are only about a quarter as good as Josh Norman thinks he is.

4)      It is the late game of the day and Arizona can stick to a normal schedule instead of having to wake up at 5 AM Pacific to prepare to play championship level football.

5)      Coaching?  Advantage Arizona.

Yeah and I prefer to be called "M'Lord" or "The Man from Nantucket."  The other coach just likes to be called "The Better Coach" 

Yep.  Lots of reasons to like the Cards.

I’m not buying it this time.  Carolina hasn’t lost at home in season and a half and is 16-1. 

On multiple occasions, I’ve hear Arizona fans start their sentence with, “..if Carolina plays like they did in the 2^nd half last week…”

If I based any opinion on the fact that a team with a 31 point half-time lead came out a little flat in the 3^rd quarter and let the defending NFC champs whittle down the lead a bit I’d also be an idiot.

Cardinal’s fans should start their sentences with, “…If the Panthers play like they did in the 1^st half…” or, more accurately, “..If we play anywhere near as shitty this week as we did last week at home against Green Bay…”.

Cam Newton always reminded me of that star player on a crappy little-league team that was a pompous, self-absorbed assface even in defeat.

Only a Patriots victory could possibly make me root for this guy.

Now he’s that same guy on a solid team with a big advantage in the trenches.

Sorry Cardinals.  I like you.  Really I do.  But, I think this is the year that good guys finish last.