Frey's Superbowl Breakdown and Wisdom Dispensary

“Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat.”

--Theodore Roosevelt

“Oh #@$%.  Here we go again.”

--Any Broncos fan born prior to 1980

Well…..Here we are.

Again.

In many ways, our collective journey as a life-long Broncos fans is not dissimilar to the post-World War II United States geo-political narrative.

Allow me to explain.

1)     American History:  In late 1945, the US surveyed the ruins of the old world order and found itself in the hitherto unknown position of being a global military superpower.  We were feeling pretty damn good about ourselves.

Broncos History:  In 1977, after years of mediocrity and, let face it, crappiness, the Denver Broncos found themselves atop the AFC for the first time in team history.  We were feeling pretty damn good about ourselves.

2)     American History:   In 1950, this new power was put to the test during the Korean War.  It didn’t go nearly as well as we might have hoped or (at least for the average American) expected, but when it concluded we were still confident about our future and felt pretty good about ourselves.

Broncos History:  In 1978 (Super Bowl XII) this new role was tested.  The result wasn’t pretty.  Denver committed a record 8 turnovers and never gave our bad-ass defense a chance.  Still, we were pleased with the direction of the franchise and saw a bright future ahead despite the setback.

3)     American History:  The US embroils itself in an ugly conflict in Vietnam following the Gulf of Tonkin Incident in 1964.  Confident, and eager to show our mettle following the underwhelming result in Korea, Americans rally to the flag. By the time our involvement ends 9 years later, optimism is dashed and the thought of another conflict strikes fear and revulsion in the national heart.

Broncos History:   The Broncos return to the Super Bowl in 1987 and get thumped.  They repeat as AFC champions in 1988 and then get slaughtered.  Against all odds they return in 1990 and are given a beatdown of biblical proportions by a historically good 49ers team.  By the time the smoke clears, optimism is dead in Denver, our team and city are cultural laughingstocks, and the very thought of returning to the big game causes grown men to collapse into the fetal position.  We carry this pain every day we draw breath.

For 20 years, we wore a cone of shame going into every season.

4)     American History:  The ghosts of Vietnam weigh heavily on the minds and hearts of all Americans as our forces take to the field of battle for the first time in nearly 2 decades.  With baited breath and a twinge of remembered dread, we await the outcome of Gulf War I.  The resulting and resounding victory lifts our souls and liberates our spirits from the demons of past failures.
Broncos History:  After a 7 year hiatus, Denver returns to the Super Bowl against a Packers team many consider an absolute Juggernaut.  The collective memory and shame of monumental defeats pervades most fans.  Even as we wear our Jerseys and high five each other, a sense of resignation taints the very air we breath but we carry on, whistling through the graveyard.  Against all expectations, the underdog Broncos pull off a stunning upset and follow it up by destroying the Falcons the next year.  No longer saddled with the dishonor of being losers like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, or Minnesota, we are sitting pretty in the Mile High City.

5)     American History:  Our previous successes still fresh in our minds, nobody doubts the inevitable victories that await us as we launch military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.  After some stunning initial successes, the occupations take a toll and people begin to remember the pain of loss felt in the 60’s and 70’s.

Broncos History:  After 2 extremely successful seasons and a record-breaking offense, Denver returns to the Super Bowl.  Optimism is high and swagger is rampant throughout the city.  By half-time, I was back in the 1980’s rocking a curly mullet, listening to U2, and slinking away into a dark corner, shocked that I had forgotten the fear that lurks inside the psyche of the true Broncos Fan.

Not even those losers from Minnesota and Buffalo can understand the baggage we carry into these games.

So…..Here we are.

Again.

Super Bowl 50: Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

Spread:  Panthers -4

The Matchups:

Broncos Offense vs Carolina’s Defense:

As far as Super Bowl contenders are concerned, Denver’s offense sucks.  Badly.

Only the lamentable Tennessee Titans had more 3 and outs this year.

Game after agonizing game (including the AFC Championship against the damnable Patriots), when one or two measly first downs would seal the deal, our offense embarked on a campaign of almost criminal ineptitude.

Denver’s Offensive line is terrifying in its hideousity with career backups and habitually over-matched youngsters getting routinely abused by even journeyman-level opposition.

What little push they get in the trenches is negated by the fragile running style of Ronnie Hillman and the walking high-ankle sprain known as C.J. Anderson.

Ronnie Hillman meets reporters in the locker room following another day of hard running

The Bronco’s passing game is laughable.  Even if Manning is somehow able to summon the spirit of 2002 and create enough torque to get the ball to an open receiver, there is a 72% chance he drops it.

The Panthers are strong everywhere on defense aside from the secondary and have proven to be very susceptible to the deep ball.  Our guy can’t throw an accurate 30 yard ball without rupturing his spleen.

They have a Hall of Fame caliber linebacking corps that stuffs the run like crazy and is almost never beat to the edges.

Carolina will load the box up, run a 3 deep zone, pack the middle of the field, and dare Manning to beat them deep.

It looks ugly for the men in orange.  We just need to protect the ball.

Verdict:  Substantial Edge - Carolina

Carolina’s Offense vs Broncos Defense:

Depending upon the health of Denver’s safeties, the Panthers #1 offense may be in for a rude awakening.

The Broncos are fast, strong, confident, and extremely well coached.

Conversely, Denver’s ‘D’ has not seen anything even close to what Carolina throws at you.

Cam Newton is mobile, has a strong and accurate arm, and is (for the first time in his career) not making stupid decisions with the football.  Coupled with ridiculously fast receivers, Carolina’s big play potential is without peer.

They have a tremendous offensive line and a solid, if not spectacular, corps of running backs.

All this having been said, Denver’s Defense is a Boss.

Verdict:  Push

Special Teams:

I would say that Carolina’s kicking game is stellar but since they hardly ever punt and always score touchdowns in the red zone nobody knows.

Denver, on the other hand, punts all the time and is always settling for 3.  Kicking the football away in one form or another is our milieu.

Verdict:  Edge Denver

Intangibles:

The Broncos, as an organization, are riddled with individuals with big game experience and typically I would consider this an overwhelming advantage.

However, I think that the Panthers may actually be too brash (or too obtuse) to realize that their appalling lack of big game expertise is a detriment.

Like this guy, Carolina doesn't get it and maybe that's not such a bad thing.

The overwhelming consensus in areas outside the Rocky Mountain region is that Carolina is an unstoppable force and victory is almost a foregone conclusion.  In fact, local stations in Charlotte are already discussing the planned parade route for this coming Tuesday. 

Undoubtedly, the Panther’s coaching staff is feverishly trying to keep such talk from reaching the ears of their young players and are fabricating disrespect narratives in order to keep them focused during game preparation but it is a losing battle.  Being loose and confident is good.  Being over-confident against a Defense like the Broncos could be fatal.

Kubiak et al have the not insubstantial challenge of being conservative without being predictable and keeping Manning mellow enough that he doesn’t start to freak out if things start to go wrong.

Still, Denver faced a tougher schedule, overcame much more adversity, and has played in many hard-fought games this season.  Carolina played 14 cupcakes in 18 games and feasted on them.

Manning has a chance at an Elway-style fairy-tale ending and will leave nothing on the field.  Hell, we may even see “Old Guy Does a Helicopter Part II”.

Anybody who doesn't want to see Peyton Manning go out like this is a butthole pure and simple.

Verdict: Slight Edge Denver

The Game Plans

Carolina:

For most teams in this position, I would recommend they avail themselves of all manner of creative and unusual plays and formations.  The Panthers are no exception.

Their offensive line excels at run-blocking and manages the trenches like a spikey-helmeted German Sargent on the Western Front during The First World War so I suspect they will pound the ball, power sweep with Cam, and relentlessly attack the interior.

However, Denver is not what you would consider a “quick-strike” offense so go ahead and take risks down the field to keep the defense honest and try to jump out to an early lead.

We may see a few arm-punts on 3^rd and long situations where they send Ted Ginn on a fly pattern and have Newton chuck the ball 50 yards downfield to try and draw an interference penalty.  If the ball is picked off nobody cares because it’s better than relying on a punter who hasn’t seen any meaningful action since 2013.

Defensively, the plan is simple:

Do what everybody else has been doing against Manning for the entire season.  Crowd the line, run a 3 deep zone, take away the short stuff, and force the 40 year-old with a bad foot and nerve damage to throw to the sidelines or beat you deep.  

Don’t worry about the running game.  Denver sucks at it.

Denver:

If the Broncos decide to attack one of the NFL’s premier defenses against the rush by running Ronnie Hillman and Chris Anderson off-tackle 30 times I am going to lose my freaking mind.

Reliable sources leaked the Bronco's offensive playbook last Wednesday.  You are seeing it here for the first time.

That Denver needs to protect the football, win the field position battle, and give their defense a chance to win the game is not in dispute.  However, Kubiak and Dennison must mix it up a bit by incorporating screens, misdirection, and maybe even a shovel pass or two into the docket.  Keep it safe but not predictable and head into the locker room at half-time within striking distance.

On defense, Denver needs to play a little more zone than they are accustomed to so that safeties and corners don't have their backs to one of the best running QBs in the game.  Mix in some man and disguise coverages.  Cam Newton isn't renowned for his mental prowess.  If you can confound Tom Brady, you can force Cam into doing something stupid from time to time.

Carolina reminds me of the CU Buffs in the 1990 Orange Bowl against Notre Dame.

Kubiak should Paraphrase Lou Holtz’s pre-game speech to The Irish:

''Number one, they're used to scoring a lot of points….They ain't playing any Tampa Bay. We've got to be patient on defense. Just play our football game. On offense, we want to control the football. All we want's a first down, first down, first down. Frustration will set in on Carolina’s offense.

''By the middle of the third quarter, they will leave the game plan completely and start grab-bagging. Remember me telling you that. They are not patient. The quarterback will want to make plays and we aren't gonna let him.''

If Denver is within a 7 points at halftime, the Orange and Blue may yet again reign supreme as Lords of the Gridiron.


Prediction:

Undoubtedly, there are people out there in my beloved city reading this blog and cringing with every praiseworthy statement I hurl at the Broncos.  My playoff record over the previous 2 years has been…..I am trying to think of a nice way to put it….shitty.

Well rest easy comrades.  Denver's offense has, at times, been so bereft of energy, imagination, and skill that it sets the game of football back 80 years.

I'd love to see '18' go out in a blaze of glory.  It would a fitting end to a magnificent career and a proper thanks to the man who returned hope and relevance to the organization.

But the reason we tell fairy tales to our children and flock to the theaters for feel-good stories isn't because such stories are commonplace.

For every John Elway there are 100 Dan Marinos.  


Carolina - 24

Denver 16