Thursday, October 30, 2014

Frey’s Locks: Week 9 NFL picks


Wow.  I didn't see that Colts game coming last week. 

However, I saw the crap out of the other 3 so my record against spread improves yet again!

Few, this week, are the games that jump out at me as no-brainers.   

Therefore, I am taking the always risky move of putting my money on road dogs.  Lots of reward and lots of risk with this move but 2 of the teams I like to win outright and the other 2 are getting way too many points.



Jacksonville (+13) @ Cincinnati

For a Bengals team coming off a 4 week stretch in which they looked like mediocrity's dim-witted drunken brother, giving 13 points against anyone not named the “Ragin Cajuns” is way too generous.

Only in Jacksonville or Oakland can you see 60,000 people collectively do this for 2 straight hours. 

It almost makes me laugh out loud just saying this, but the Bengals may be looking ahead to a meaningful game against <chuckle> Cleveland next week…..


San Diego (+2.5) @ Miami

Let me see if I am understanding this correctly:

Aside from a week 1 win against a Patriots team that was completely lost, the Dolphins have lost every game they played against winning teams.  Last week, the got punched in the face and needed 2 pick-sixes to beat the hapless Jags.

Conversely, the Chargers are coming off a road loss against the best team in football, are 5-3, and have been extremely competitive in all but 1 game despite a brutal schedule.  To top it off, they have an extra 3 days to rest and prepare.



Not only do I think the Chargers will cover but I think they’ll win by a TD or more.


Oakland (+15.5) @ Seattle

Preparing to play the Raiders in the middle of the season is kind of like preparing your kids’ lunch in the middle of the school year. 

The effort really isn't required since they won’t eat half the crap anyway so you do it really half-assed.



Half-assed is always good enough to beat a dipshit team like the Raiders, but not good enough to win by 16.


Baltimore (+1.5) @ Pittsburgh

Few teams in the NFL are more schizophrenic than the Steelers.  

One week, they get lambasted by the <chuckle> Cleveland Browns .  Then they storm out of the tunnel and absolutely violate the Colts .

The Ravens aren’t great, but they are consistently competent.   

This game may come down to whether or not Pittsburgh wears their Bumblebee Man uniforms. 

Me No Gusta



Since I don’t know how the Steelers will dress, I’ll just pick the better team.

Season Record Against the Spread: 19-13  

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Blood Versus Water. The Power of the Edit

In many ways, attempting to understand and predict how any season of Survivor is going to shape up is more difficult for the viewer than for the actual players.

Aside from the fact that we are not starving, freezing, and/or getting eaten by howler monkeys, our ability to obtain a firm grasp upon the game is at the mercy of the editing team.

Last week, for example, the show did everything in its power to make it appear that Baylor or Missy was going home. 

Missy was shown to be a small-brained gluttonous shrew single-handedly drove up the price of rice on the commodities market by 3 cents a pound. 

Jeff arrives on the beach with Missy's daily rice ration


Baylor was a snippy and snide little brat with nary a nice thing to say about anyone.

In contrast, Kelley (who winded up getting her torch snuffed) was portrayed as reasonable, likable, and wise; cautioning he father to mellow out about how Misty the Rice Monster was going to ensure the starvation of the entire tribe.

Prior to tribal council, Jon and Miss Michigan have a tender, heartfelt discussion with Dale and Kelley that oozes with understanding and camaraderie.  In contrast, discussions with Mother Rice and Baylor were awkward, short, and bitchy in kind of middle-school way.

The normally interrogative Jeff Probst just kind of pussy-footed around the vote and did nothing to alter the illusion presented to us by the editors. 

Here is the dilemma faced by viewers who enjoy the show most by placing themselves within the game so that they can play along with the villains and Heroes:

1)      Do you watch the show carefully and attempt to derive as much information as you can from interviews, interaction, and body language?

Or

2)      Do you spend the episode trying to figure out in what way the editing team is attempting to mislead you in order to drum up non-existent drama?

Too often of late, it has been the latter. 

If the wind is blowing a specific direction and everyone knows it, then show us what the players see so that we can place ourselves in their shoes!  Creative editing in this manner almost makes the show seem scripted. 

People don’t watch Survivor to be shocked.  We tune into Game of Thrones for that.  We watch it to revel in the politics, laugh at the buffoonery of the players, and to watch people far better looking than ourselves traipse around in swimwear.

Above all, we want to feel like we can participate.  Show us what is going on and allow us to draw our own conclusions much like the real players do.  It lets us feel like we are playing without having to eat Yak balls or Hippo cheeks.

In addition to the selective editing for dramatic purposes, there are 2 other trends of which I am certain that savvy viewers have observed. 

These are the “We didn’t interview them so they are not going home edit” and the “winner’s edit”.

I may not be able to tell you who’s going home after viewing the first 20-30 minutes of the episode but I sure as hell can tell you who isn’t.  No matter how boring you are, if you don’t get an interview, you are safe. 

A couple seasons back, they had this incredibly boring racecar chick on the show that never said or did anything that could be viewed as sentient.  For over a month, I kept forgetting she was even on the show.  One day she turns up in a candid interview like she was photo-bombing or something.  I leaned over to my wife and said, “She’s going home tonight.”

Bam.  Gone.

Do you remember this lady?  Me neither.  They only talked to her the day she got whacked.


It pains me that I am spending more time interpreting the intentions of the editing team than I am analyzing the qualities of the plans and actions of the players.

The “Winner’s Edit” is, if anything, even more troublesome.

Some time back, I began to notice that certain players were getting incredibly friendly treatment at the hands of the editing crew.  It meant 1 of 2 things generally.

1)      The contestant in question was going to go very far in the game.
2)      The contestant in question had pictures of the crew abusing native children and pistol-whipping endangered monkeys.

Take Cochran, for example.  Every time he opened his mouth the first time on the show he was portrayed as a naïve Poindexter with the social skills of a drunken Raiders fan.  You knew he was toast.

From the very first interview on his next go, Cochran had morphed into a divine mix of Mr. Miyagi and Winston Churchill.  Once he survived the first couple weeks, it was clear he was going to be a force.

In retrospect, Tony the corrupt cop from last season also got “The Winner’s Edit”.  In most cases, contestants who act like buttholes are portrayed as such by the editing crew.  Inevitably, they suffer an ignominious end shortly after the process begins.

Drew started acting like a Jackwagon and was immediately portrayed as a Jackwagon


Tony, on the other hand, was a total DB to people, lied about almost every conceivable issue, and was still portrayed as a hardworking and lovable character who was saving the show from the mediocrity of the other contestants.

So who is getting the love this season you ask?  3 players jump out as getting a favorable edit given what they have (or have not) done.

a)      Josh—Every time the show cuts to Josh he is spouting off an incredibly insightful bit of strategy or a magnificently astute observation about one of the other players.  He’s not a challenge beast and certainly hasn’t taken the game over like a Tony or Boston Rob but is still getting tons of camera love.  Josh is getting the “Cochran Edit”.

b)      Jeremy—The excitable fireman is always proffered the opportunity to pontificate on the idiocy of his comrades.  The cameras will catch one of the other contestants doing or saying something offensive, unwise, or just plain stupid and then cut to Jeremy so that he can say all of the things that the viewer is thinking but would never say if we were in the game.  Jeremy is getting the “Tyson Edit”.

c)       Jon—Mr. Miss Michigan has been enjoying the kid glove treatment by the crew.  He has made dubious alliances (Drew), hatched ridiculous or counterproductive plans (vote off singles), and cost his team their fishing gear by losing their flint.  However, unlike most contestants who might pull such boners, Jon’s interviews and cuts show him as an astute student of the human condition who honorably owns up to his mistakes and acknowledges the fine moves of his peers.  Jon is getting the “Malcolm Edit.”


I am willing to bet that 2 of the top 5 are listed above and that every one of these guys makes the jury.  

Of course, if I discover photos online of endangered monkeys getting pistol-whipped by people in CBS gear I will issue a contraction next week

Thursday, October 23, 2014

NFL Week 8: Frey's Picks of the Week

I know that you are all pretty damn tired of me going 2-2 every week.  therefore, I am not going to talk about going 2-2 again last week.

Instead, let's talk some picks:

San Diego @ Denver -7.5

Denver has 3 major advantages going into this game:

1)       They are better.
2)       San Diego is not better.
3)       Phillip Rivers is a wang.


No words my friends.  No words......

Not this year Chargers.  Broncos roll.


Houston -1 @ Tennessee

The Titans announced that rookie 6th round draft choice Zach Mattenberger will be starting at QB this weekend against Houston.

The Texans then announced that JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are going to beat the %$#& out of the Titans.

Good luck Rookie.


Miami -5 @ Jacksonville

I was shocked to see a 1-6 team with the worst passing defense in the NFL opened as only a 4 point underdog. 

I am equally shocked this line is not closer to 6.5 after a couple days on the board. 

I guess beating the Brian Hoyer-led Cleveland Browns means a lot more to people than it does to me.
Take the fish and lay the 5.

Photo from the Jags' locker room shortly after their big win last week



Indianapolis -2.5 @ Pittsburgh

I suspect that the Steelers will, at some point, discover that Andrew Luck, despite the beard, is not Ryan Fitzpatrick.  
Luck and Fitzpatrick posing for photographers prior to the battle of Shiloh in 1862



The Colts are my anti-Bills.  After the unpleasantness against the Eagles they have been the goose the layed the golden egg.  

Belt out the Battle Hymn of the Republic my friends and let it ride.


Season Record against the Spread:  16-12

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Blood Versus Water. Recap and Ruminations


If you need any further proof that the social interaction in Survivor is, on many occasions, superior to life in the real world then look no further than the demise of Drew.

An immensely satisfying blindside to be sure


In Drew, you have a narcissistic, dimwitted sociopath who (due to his doting father and modeling career) displays a sense of invincibility and entitlement as great as anyone who I have ever seen in this game.  

Let us, for a moment, examine this jackhole’s playbook from last week:

1)      Lounge around camp and do nothing.  Make certain that you verbalize to your tribe mates that work is beneath you and napping is more your thing.

Drew working around camp


2)      Against the advice and wishes of your whole tribe, try and trade nothing for something only to be ridiculed by Jeff Probst.  Shrug pompously and tell everyone that you are the only one with balls on your team.

3)      Feverishly volunteer to join your closest Ally’s girlfriend (Miss Michigan) on Exile Island.  Leer at her ass whenever she bends over to stoke the fire or pick something up.  Then tell her that you are cursed with the ability to make women swoon just by being so awesome.

**Note: If it is indeed a fact that this DB is lavished with female attention as suggested by both Drew and his brother, it is a damning condemnation of our species’ cognitive abilities.  Any self-respecting but technologically superior alien race would be justified in exterminating us based solely upon people like Drew having success with the opposite gender.**

4)      Get annoyed by some lady who says or does nothing that can be considered even the least bit offensive or shifty.  Make it your mission in life to get her voted off.

5)      Purposefully sabotage a team that has never lost an immunity challenge (in a game that is entirely about numbers and majorities) because you “get to decide who wins or loses”.  Do it in a pushy and aggressive way.  Then offer an insincere and condescending apology.

6)      Head back to camp and then tell the entire tribe (in front of the women) that you are scared of the women and everyone (including the women) needs to vote off the women.  Be such an overbearing butthole about it that even your fiercest ally tells you, “you’re being a jackass.”

7)      Having alienated your friends and galvanized your enemies, head into tribal council and sit there with a big dumbass grin on your face.  Drop an occasional platitude and coy comment and then act like the whole process, and everyone involved with it, is inferior to you.


Sadly, in the real world, a-type personality sociopaths who look like, think like, and behave like Drew would have:

a)      Earned a promotion and/or fat raise. 

b)      Beaten out a humble and competent competitor for a large contract.

c)       Enjoyed limitless successes with the opposite sex.

d)      Been elected to a position of great power and authority.

e)      Earned “Man of the Year” honors in multiple business journals and tabloid magazines.

Yep.  This is the picture of success in this detestable age


In Survivor, he got thrown out of the game like the steaming pile of flotsam that he is.  Therefore, Survivor > Real Life.

Although just about every move Drew made was catastrophically absurd, I was also struck by Jon the MSU football player’s dubious approach to their upcoming tribal council.

When pitching the case to vote off John Rocker’s girlfriend, he asserts that, “We need to vote out the single people since they will soon begin to outnumber the couples and then pick us off one by one.”

Good idea genius!  So tell me good sir, what happens when Miss Michigan gets booted next week and you are a single?  

Survivor is a game of chess and you are player checkers.


**For MSU grads, checkers are like chess and chess is like Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in physics.**

Friday, October 17, 2014

NFL Week 7: Frey's Picks of the Week

My apologies for not posting last week my friends! 

I was feverishly attempting to get my 3 year old ready to head to the bar to watch the Broncos game and simply ran out of time.

In week 6, I decided to play road warrior as I had Broncos, Patriots, Packers, and Chargers.  

As tradition demands, I went 2-2.  Again.
 
This week, my powers of prognostication have led me to be a homer.



Atlanta @ Baltimore -6.5

Atlanta has lost every road game this year by double-digits.  This includes ass-kickings at the hands of juggernauts such as the 2-4 Vikings with a rookie QB and the 3-3 Giants who have yet to beat a team with a winning record.

The Falcons are a lot like Kathleen Turner.  They used to be interesting and attractive but when you take a gander at them now they look like crap and cough up cigarette butts on your shirt.




MinnesotaBuffalo -3.5

I’m picking Buffalo.   

My God have mercy on my soul.



FYI-- I was just kidding when I wrote a few weeks ago that readers should line up to punch me in the dong if I picked them again. 



Kansas City @ San Diego -4


I have always been told that home field is worth 2.5 to 3.5 points in an NFL game.  Phillip Rivers is a wang so lets say that it is only a 2 point advantage for the Chargers.

So what Vegas is telling me is that the Chefs are only 2 points worse than San Diego on a neutral field.



This smells like a trap but I’m going after the cheese anyway.


CincinnatiIndianapolis -2.5

The Colts almost always lose to good teams even at home.  

Unfortunately, I can’t tell if Cincinnati is a good team or not.


3 weeks ago I would have taken the Bengals without hesitation but after making Cam Newton look like Steve Young on steroids last week, I can’t image them keeping it under 10.

Besides, Indy is unbeaten at home against Ohio teams ever since Andrew Luck returned from his pilgrimage to Mecca.

Colts QB Andrew Luck reporting to Mini-camp upon returning from the Hajj

Season record against the spread:  14-10

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Blood Versus Water. Week 3



Every so often in life, you are given a gut feeling. 

Before this season started, I watched the pre-game interviews and read the bios. 

My gut told me that Val and Jeremy were going to be a dominant force in this game.

2 weeks later, I can proudly reaffirm what I have always known to be true.  Listening to one’s gut is nincompoopery of the highest magnitude. 

You know why humans lack the same instincts that are commonplace in the rest of the animal kingdom?  Because nature decided that reason, logic, and intellect are vastly superior forces and everyone who “trusted their gut” was tossed, rightly, into the evolutionary scrapheap.

The guys in the red circle relied more on their gut


Jeremy the likable fireman is, in actuality, an emotional basket case whose pendulum swings violently between rage and despondency.

Val the competitive cop and mother is, simply put, one of the dumbest people I have ever seen play this game.

2 idols Val?  Really? 

1)      Where are you going to get TWO 4 days into the game? 
2)      Why would you even tell people you have 1 idol much less 2?  You have no firm alliances!  Everyone on your tribe is just going to try and flush it out immediately.  You just guaranteed yourself half the votes.
3)      Why would you think leaving camp with someone with whom you never speak, and who just spent a day or two on Exile Island with your husband is a good idea? 
4)      How could you not know that coming back to the camp at the same time as John just before a jury vote might raise a suspicion or 2?
5)      Why in God’s name would you simply assume that everyone is going to vote the way John Rocker says they are going to vote?

I see a lot of dumb things every day.  Even the dumbest decisions have some agenda or logic behind them even if I disagree with it.   The “I have 2 idols” is bereft of any conceivable rationality.  It has all of the downside of any catastrophic blunder and no possible upside:



Coming in just below Val on the “dumbest player in history” chart is John Rocker.

I am going to just assume that he has never seen the game on TV before.  How else could he have found the hidden immunity idol and still believed that Val had 2 idols? 

For a good laugh, let’s have a look at John Rocker’s week:

1)      He foolishly and impulsively volunteers for a challenge that involves ducking under low obstacles while balancing a ball on a disc.  John Rocker is 6’6”…..
2)      He then loses the challenge but composes himself in time to insult every woman on the island by noting his disgust at “losing to a GIRL”. 
3)      His tribe gathers while he is gone and his identity is revealed along with his less than stellar past.  Only Wes the Louisiana fireman seems confused as to why people don’t like him.  John Rocker is, after all, an exalted hero of the Confederacy after his bigoted rant against homosexuals and black people.

Pa...I just don't understand them Yankees....

4)      He comes back from Exile Island and then loses an immunity challenge that looks to have been tailor-made for a gigantic professional athlete.
5)      The vote goes poorly, he looks like a liar, and everyone hates his guts.

Now the bright side:

Who wouldn't want to sit next to this multi-millionaire, unrepentant bastard when it comes time to pick someone to win a million dollars?!

Amidst all of the idiocy, it is easy to overlook competent play.

Despite Rocker’s plastic girlfriend’s somewhat surprising aptitude for this game, I think she’ll get axed by her tribe just to stick it to Mr. Baseball.  Nevertheless, she seems astute and has acquitted herself well in challenges.


On the other tribe, Josh (Reed’s hustle) is a player.  He reminds me of that little flight attendant who won the China season.  Josh understands the game mechanics in a way reminiscent of a Boston Rob or a Cochran despite the fact that he is a rookie.  

It’s early yet, but this guy is my leader in the clubhouse.  Josh's team just needs to stop getting their ass kicked so he can get to the merge without being down 8-3.  

Friday, October 3, 2014

NFL Week 5: Frey's Locks of the Week

THAT’s what I’m talking about!  A little 4-0 is exactly what was needed to get things rolling.

Now that I've lanced the unsightly pro-Buffalo boil that was disfiguring my blog after week 3 by picking against the Bills, we can all attempt to move forward in our lives with some degree of normality.

Buffalo craps the bed again.  All is right with the world.


Week 5:


Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos (-7)


This game reminds me of the Winter War between Russia and Finland in 1939-1940.

The Finns were resilient, well-led, and came out of the gates looking great.  Russia was sluggish, over-confident, and inconsistent.

However, Russia had 10,000 aircraft and tanks and Finland had like 6.

Denver has tons of weapons and the Cardinals have Drew Stanton.

In this game, the bully has the home turf and the little guy is invading.

Try as they might, the Cards are probably just going to get tossed around by their underpants


How anyone can not think that Peyton Manning at home after a bye week isn't worth more than a TD is beyond me.

I don’t like picking my boys, but the Broncos cover here.


Tampa Bay (+11) @ New Orleans


I’ve no illusions of a Saints loss here, but that is a lot of freaking points to lay for a team that looked like a fat man running a 10K even in their victories.

The Saints on their way to finishing off the mighty 1-3 Redskins


Backdoor cover?  Were we come!


Cincinnati (+2.5) @ New England


I don’t know why everyone still thinks “The Hoodie” is such a great coach.  He’s just a mean guy who thinks he’s better than you.

As far as New England is concerned, if they can’t cheat, then they can’t win.

This year, Cincinnati is the better team.  Pure and Simple.

Brady better start Ballin’ or he’s gonna lose his Uggs contract.

Only a champion gets to market these bad-boys....


Buffalo @ Detroit (-6.5)


There are forces in the world that we cannot even begin to understand.  In this game, 2 such forces are at odds.

1)      Detroit, even at home, ALWAYS plays down to the level of the competition.

2)      Every time I pick against the Bills I win on every pick that week, my fantasy team wins, and the weather is summer-like.


I could go for some good weather this weekend so I’m gonna grab me some Lions.



Season Record against the spread:  10-6

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Blood Versus Water. Week 2


Allow me to be the first to give the season premier of Survivor 29 a resounding, "Meh.."

 

Last season was an immensely entertaining and unpredictable combination of brilliance and buffoonery.  The fact that there was no "exile island, or "redemption island, or "Gilligan's island," allowed players to attack the game instead of worrying about random events or bait and switches.

 

Throw in the whole "I better not do anything or they will make my loved one eat rusty nails or fight a badger naked" and people are paralyzed with indecision instead of plotting the demise of a rival.

 
Not a lot of action when players see this in front of them.

It is early, and many things can happen, but I cannot shake the feeling like they have some dead fish this players this season.

 

Week 1 kind of went down like this:

 

-- Girls get together and decide to "make history' by forming an all-girl alliance.  If by 'Make history" they mean do the same crap everyone else does then yes, by all means, go make some history ladies.

 

-- Same group of ladies try the good ol' fashioned "vote out the older guy who works hard, knows what he is doing, and is still a better athlete than most of us." approach.

 

--Pompous pretty boy (Drew) draws the ire of a plastic woman (Julie) who is dating the only person on the island with more ego than him.  Odd that she would despise the kid for being egomaniacal on the grounds that she is dating someone who is a much bigger prick.  Makes no sense but somehow we see this over and over in both Survivor and society....

 

--Channeling the spirit of Corinne from previous seasons who would rather go home than not have "her gay" as part of a tandem, the actress who plays the twins begins to level every known insulting stereotype against Josh an thinks she is being cosmopolitan.

 

--Meanwhile, token "kind of famous guy" gets recognized by small brained fireman Wes, who then coyly asks him if his last name has 5 letters.  John Rocker, aware that the gig is up, looks puzzled, as an any orangutan knows that "Rocker" has 6 letters.

 
The valedictorian of Wes' Senior class on "Who wants to be a millionaire". 

In any event, I was disappointed that the exchange didn't go more like this:

 

Wes the Small-brained Fireman: "Hey ya'll. I've been watching sum ball since I was a youngin.  You're John Rocker ainchya?

 

John Rocker:  No.  My name is John Wedland.

 

Wes the Small-brained Fireman: <exhaling in relief> "Thank Gawd.  That John Rocker is a dick."
 

--Scrambling old guy targets person from previous reality show but doesn't garner enough support until said reality show chick resumes her assault upon the dignity of a gay man at tribal council.

 

When all was said and done, I have learned next to nothing about anyone on this show aside from the below observations:

 

1) Jeremy went from one of my favorites to win to the replacement sissy for "John the crying doctor" from last BvW.  Get it together man!  You've only been on the island for like 2 days!

 
Can Jeremy join the Mount Rushmore of Criers this season?

2)  My wife pointed out (and I concur) that the players speak and act like they are running for political office even in private interviews.  If I wanted a bunch of boring suits hemorrhaging buzzwords and hedged statements I'd watch re-runs of the company podcasts.

 

3) People are waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding their loved ones instead of assaulting the game ala Tony from last year.  The best comes when the uncertainty is removed and plots can hatch.  Right now everyone is so uptight you can't squeeze a greased BB up their butts.

 

4) Am I the only one who burst out laughing when Missy (47 year old lady with 17 divorces under her belt) mentioned how she has learned to trust her gut?  You mean that same gut that lead you to keep marrying and then divorcing  philanderers and creeps?  Yeah Missy, that's right, You trust that gut.  It's like the old saying, "don't use your brain because he looks sooooo dreamy....."

 
Hank believes that your gut is your brain's employee.

5) Baylor appears to be terrified of howler monkeys.  John the Michigan guy can replicate the sounds a howler monkey makes.  Therefore, John can control Baylor by making monkey sounds.

 

6) There must not be any gay people in Sri Lanka.

 

7) The old farmer guy (Dale) proved that he is pretty wily and I believe he may have found the immunity idol given that Val's clue directed her to look right where he found the trinket and now there is nothing there.

 

Players of the week:

 

Strong player:  John the Michigan State guy is a stud athlete, cries less than 50% of the firemen on the island, and can make himself very desirable to howler monkeys.  That is a winning combination.

 

Bad player:  While it is tempting to immediately give it to the actress who plays the twins for callous insensitivity, the dude who can't count to 6 when spelling simple last names cannot possibly go too far n this game.....I think.....