There are few things in this life more tragic than a sacrifice made in vain.
It was both painful and frustrating to watch Ciera attempt to simultaneously talk herself both into and out of voting out her own mom and then, ultimately, allowing someone else to make the decision for her.
The decision was the ticket to victory, not the act itself.
Any monkey can vote with the majority but if Ciera truly had designs upon the million bucks, it should have occurred to her that she would need to tell the final jury something other than she sucks in challenges and lounges around camp like she has dysentery.
As it stands, she must conceive of and successfully implement a move to oust at least 2 power players if she is to have any hope of bringing home the prize.
In addition to having squandered her best hope for jury votes, she still reaps all the downside of the decision:
1) She no longer has the emotional bulwark that her mother provided
2) She becomes threatening to the other players because she agreed to vote out her own mother. I mean, how the hell can you trust someone who would stab their own mom in the back?
Ciera is our big drop of the week. She’s too sneaky to hitch your wagon to. She’s too likeable with too great a need for the coin to take to the final 3. She is starting to sound like someone who wants to make some moves but may lack the delicacy required to do so gracefully.
Let’s get ranking!
#1) Caleb
I do not believe that he’s the best candidate to go home with the million, but his incredibly deft answer at tribal regarding Monica shows that he can wield a gilded tongue when necessary.
I suspect that having to placate that bitch Colton all the time has made him a skillful dissembler.
Anyway, for a savvy player like Caleb to be this far off the radar this far into the game is quite an accomplishment. I have him getting 2nd in the end but for now he’s the safest on the island.
#2) Gervase
Gervase is still my bet to win it all but his close association with Tyson and the growing feeling among others that he is a pretty dangerous cat puts him in more immediate danger than Caleb.
He needs to turn on Tyson but cannot do it too early or he’ll be without allies.
Tyson has to be offed not this week but next and, unlike Ciera’s situation, Gervase needs to make it look like he had nothing to do with it to ensure a friendly jury.
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| Keep your distance....but don't look like you're trying to keep your distance....I don't know, fly casual! |
#3) Hayden
Aras’ ignominious departure from Redemption Island has given Big Brother new life.
He’s not making any moves so nobody fears him strategically and his underwhelming challenge performances are actually working in his favor right now.
Hayden just needs to sit back, smile, nod, play dumb, and not get involved in any strategery right now and he’ll be safe.
Next week though, he needs to make a big move or he’ll be watching people fall over themselves to take Katie and Monica to the finals with them.
#4) Katie
Is there anyone in their right mind who doesn’t want Katie next to them in front of the final jury?
I’ve heard the argument that nobody has any cause to dislike her and this makes her a dangerous foe.
The fact is, unless you are a monumental bastard (Russel Hantz) or a clumsy backstabbing traitor (Dawn Meehan/Steph Whatshername/Coach) you have nothing to fear from the Katies of the world.
Survivor contestants generally shy away from giving a million bucks to non-entities unless under extreme duress.
#5) Monica
"Nothing is more dangerous than a friend without discretion; even a prudent enemy is preferable."
--Jean de La Fontaine
"Nothing is more dangerous than a friend without discretion; even a prudent enemy is preferable."
--Jean de La Fontaine
She is a woman without any allies and, as a result, she wields no power. No power+ No friends =No threat.
On the other hand, she is unpredictable and untrustworthy.
If you are someone who values your game, taking Monica along for a ride to the final 3 is an incredibly dangerous proposition.
Like Katie, Monica has no chance at winning a million bucks. Therefore, they are each other’s greatest enemies as the power players will need to decide who is to be their cannon fodder.
In the spirit of Gervase’s observations from a couple weeks ago, the best weapon is the one that doesn’t blow up in your face when you have to finally use it.
Katie is the safer play for 3rd but Monica is actually capable of winning challenges that don’t involve eating Panda butts and Giraffe intestines.
#6) Tyson
I believe (as of today) that Tyson wins if he gets to the final 3 but he has the toughest road to get there.
Everyone knows he’s calling the shots and it is human nature to start feeling resentful. He’s got a huge target on his back just begging for a few poison darts to be cast his way.
To further compound his already tenuous situation, Tyson appears to be developing the opinion that everyone else on the island is an impotent baboon who lacks the balls or the brains to knock him off his throne.
He’d better smarten up fast or he’ll be joining the last Yezhinkosopolis brother on the island of fewer coconuts.
Moreover, if Vytas wins and gives another clue out to Katie, she’s gonna realize someone else has the idol and that may cause some unwanted fallout.
Still, he has 3 things working in his favor:
1) He has the idol and even though Laura M(outh) is off the island, he still might catch wind of a plot and play it.
2) Even with a torn rotator cuff, he’s still better in most challenges than half the remaining people.
3) People fear power either real or perceived. If a safe vote (Monica, Katie, Ciera) presents itself, there is a good chance they will seize upon the opportunity to protect their own hides. This only needs to happen for 2 more weeks and he’s guaranteed final 5.
#7) Ciera
Nearly 30 years ago, an extremely wise man once spoke of walking down a road:
“If you walk right side? Safe.”
“If you walk left side? Safe”
“If you walk middle <squish> just like grape.”
Ciera’s half-assed manner of voting off mommy violated this most sacred observation.
When playing for a million dollars, either you Survivor do: Yes; or you Survivor do: No; But you Survivor do, “guess so”, sooner or later <squish> just like grape.
Mr. Miyagi thinks you blew it and so do I.
Redemption Island:
a) Vytas
The grumpiest yoga guy in the world wins again here. If he gives the clue to Katie again it could make for interesting times back at camp once she figures out that someone else has it.
b) Laura M
It would be funny just to see you come back in a screw over your daughter again!
c) Tina
As shocked as I was that she won last week, I will be equally as surprised if she can do it twice in a row.
Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game
Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 7: #10 of 11 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 8: #10 of 10 voted off at tribal council: Picked winner at Redemption Island
Week 9: #9 of 9 voted off at tribal council: No Redemption challenge
Week 9: #8 of 8 voted off at tribal council: No Redemption challenge
Week 10: #7 of 8 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
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