Let me launch this week’s power rankings preview by sending
out a hearty “#@%& you!” to the people from CBS who create, edit, and run
the weekly previews.
Suffice it to say that an astute viewer knows who wins at Redemption
Island as well as how the vote goes at tribal council based solely on a 15 second
local TV spot purchased by the network for affiliates across the US.
Out of respect for my readers who don’t sit around all day
watching TV or are, perhaps, big dumb candy-asses who don’t watch football on
weekends, I am going to eschew the rankings this week and instead talk about
the remaining players and their prospects for winning the million.
On a less important note, I really crappethed the bed by putting Caleb #1 last week. Let us speak no more of this…..
Let us now talk some Survivor:
Tyson:
Reasons he can win:
1)
He has been the driving force behind every relevant
move this season
2)
For people who can’t see the immense amount of
$hit he talks about them behind the scenes, he seems pretty cool.
3)
His belly full of ill-gotten coconuts allows him
to compete in challenges even with a jacked up shoulder.
4)
He doesn’t root for the Philadelphia Eagles
which makes him smarter than a at least 1 other player.
Reasons he’ll lose:
1)
If Gervase is the silent “grand vizier” who operates
behind the scenes, Tyson makes his moves with the flamboyance of a younger,
gayer, Elton John. This makes him a hell
of a target for savvy players who know that aggressive players who are not
overt bastards usually win (refer to all seasons after 5).
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| Look at me! I'm the one making everyone vote you off the island! |
2)
He still has a bum shoulder and does not appear
to be able to eat Manatee poop with the same vigor as Katie, Monica, or
Gervase. Any hopes of sweeping immunity
look slim.
3)
I don’t feel like he has an innate sense of
timing like Boston Rob or Cochran displayed in their drive to the coin. His immunity idol play was pretty irrelevant when
compared to previous seasons.
4)
The fact that he didn’t tell ANYONE in his
alliance that he had the idol must plant seeds of doubt as to the sincerity of
his loyalty. People may feel slighted
come voting time.
Monica:
Reasons she can win:
1)
In any challenge that requires endurance or grip
strength in proportion to body weight, this
woman is unstoppable. I bet she is great
at choking the %$#& out of her kids when they act up….
2)
If she can keep her yap shut and let the power
players snipe at each other, there is a good chance she ends up in a final 3
with a couple of schlemiels with little
to support their case for the million.
Reasons she’ll lose:
1)
Unless Probst has the legal and spiritual
authority to perform a quickfire divorce in front of the jury during the final tribal
council, she’s still married to that Delta
Bravo Brad Culpepper.
2)
Flip-floppy people seldom fare well when
campaigning for votes. She has been
little more than a disloyal opportunist for the last 3 weeks and everyone who
is sitting on the loser’s bench will remember this.
Katie:
Reasons she can win:
1)
Katie is starting to have the feeling of a “Natalie”
from that season that Russel Hantz lost.
She’s pretty (She is one of the few people in this shows illustrious
history that looks noticeably better after eating rice and grubs) , she’s
likable, and isn’t a total dunder-pate like Amanda Kimmel who will ramble
like a homeless man in front of the jury id she makes it far enough. If people are pissed enough at the remaining
players, she might just get the “F.U’” vote to win the day.
2)
Has there been a bigger non-player this
season? Other competitors will naturally
want to drag this non-entity to the end thinking that she has no threatening
resume to steal the cabbage.
3)
At the very least, there will be 2 Mom’s on the
jury who will probably cast their vote for the last surviving “Little Girl”.
Reasons she’ll lose:
1)
Katie’s greatest strength is her greatest
weakness as well. If she does make it to
the final 3, how is she going to field the inevitable “Why do you deserve the
million dollars” questions? Telling
people that you can finally fit into some pants you bought in 2007 won’t do the
trick. Although she’d probably get my
vote for such candor….
2)
They had their eating challenge already. Katie cannot hope to take herself to the
finals, she must rely on the largesse of others. Having no control of one’s own destiny is
never a good thing.
3)
She needs to make sure Ciera does not make it
to the end or she risks splitting the “Mommy Vote”.
Gervase:
Reasons he can win:
1)
Power without responsibility. He knows everything that is going on around
camp and has strategic input on top of it.
Yet, somehow, everyone is pissed off at or scared of Tyson. This a great place to be.
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| Unlike Disney's reality, the Sultan will be to blame for any decisions |
2)
People either seem to trust this guy or have
confidence that his self interest will add some malleability to his play. He’s kind of like a swing vote even when in
the dominant alliance.
Reasons he’ll lose:
1)
Gervase must be very careful who he takes to the
end should he make it that far. If he
sits next to Tyson he’s screwed given the game he has played thus far.
2)
He roots for the Philadelphia Eagles. As we all know, God hates Cleveland and
Philly. Unless he has some help from “down
under”, overcoming the displeasure of the almighty is at tall task indeed.
Hayden:
Reasons he can win:
1)
You don’t win Big Brother without having some
serious social acumen. He’s likable enough
to outperform Katie in front of the final jury particularly if he engineers
some fireworks in the last few weeks.
2)
They can’t possibly continue to gear every immunity
challenge to sinewy people who are small of stature. I have a feeling that eventually challenges requiring
some beef will end up in play here.
3)
He’s dating Kat.
He has used up a solid portion of his bad luck already.
Reasons he’ll lose:
1)
Winning Big Brother gives you a million bucks. I’m no Socialist, but giving a million
dollars to a millionaire just seems like a butthole move.
2)
He’s one of the guys who betrayed the alliance
before it was time. This will plague
him on the jury as well as with his remaining tribe mates if luck doesn’t go his
way.
3)
He’s dating Kat.
If that isn’t a damning condemnation of someone’s judgment I don’t know
what is (aside, perhaps, from betting on the Buffalo Bills). he may do something stupid pretty soon that shoots him in the arse.
Ciera:
Reason’s she’ll win:
1)
She may be sneaky but she’s not quite considered
a power player. It is entirely possible
that the strong forces will eliminate themselves through a war of attrition
allowing her to proceed to the final 3 with an entourage of nincompoops.
2)
Even if she didn’t conceive of the move and
tried to fight it in the end, voting off one’s own mother can be viewed by
people on the jury as a substantial self-sacrifice. This separates her from any non-entities that
might join her in the end.
3)
Like Katie, she is as likely to get the Mommy
vote as the Democratic Mayoral Candidate in San Francisco.
Reasons she’ll lose:
1)
When it comes down to it, she did nothing other
than do what Tyson told her the entire game (thus far). Why would I give a million dollars to Robin when Batman is vying for the same prize?
2)
Ciera is like a weaker, sneakier Katie. No threat to win challenges and a possible
traitor come vote time. Enemies make dangerous friends.
3)
If Katie makes it to the end, she loses the
other vote she’d get.
No Redemption predictions this week.
Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game
Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 7: #10 of 11 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 8: #10 of 10 voted off at tribal council: Picked winner at Redemption Island
Week 9: #9 of 9 voted off at tribal council: No Redemption challenge
Week 9: #8 of 8 voted off at tribal council: No Redemption challenge
Week 10: #7 of 8 voted off at tribal council: Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 10: #` of 7 voted off at tribal council: Picked both winners at Redemption Island
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