Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 9 Power Rankings

You know, if there is one thing I dislike more than crying doctors with guilty consciences, it is that dumbass pole challenge.
Anyone with a foot size greater than “4” is screwed no matter what level of strength and endurance you have. 

I think the crying doctor got jobbed on that challenge to get back in the game.  In fact, Kat had a better chance of assembling a fission pile to create a controlled nuclear reaction than John had at beating Laura M. to get back in the game.
On the bright side though, watching Ciera lay a trail of verbal napalm (internally at least) when her loud-mouth Mom got back in the game was amusing enough to eliminate the lingering stench of injustice.
In retrospect, there is not a substantial amount of movement to the rankings this week but, if the previews are anything more than a series of Red herrings, Tina may be using her tongue to dig a grave for herself.
In today’s rankings, I am going to place each person where they belong and detail their best play if they want to win the pot.

#1) Gervase
He’s got the look of a “Grima Wormtongue” from Lord of the Rings. 
Gervase sits behind the throne and whispers in the ear of the king (Tyson).

Steal more coconuts M'Lord
 
Unlike Grima, nobody believes he’s making any decisions and, hence, will not be held accountable. 
Power without responsibility is the dream of everyone in both Survivor and in life.
Gervase’s best play now is to continue to be Tyson’s lap-dog, only whispering advice if his more boisterous friend starts allowing emotion to drive the strategy. 
Tyson is the type of guy whose ego will enjoy taking some credit for more creative moves.  Gervase needs to let him bask in the limelight.
In a couple of weeks, the remaining tribe is going to start getting really scared of Tyson.  That’s when he wipes him out.
If he can avoid the idol, Gervase is in a great spot.

#2) Caleb

This man only speaks every 3rd episode.
Neither liked nor disliked, feared nor disdained, Caleb is the prototypical “lay-low” Survivor contestant.
In fact, he’s Gervase with less power and an immensely unlikable fiancĂ©.  That’s why he’s #2.
If Caleb can keep his yap shut for another 5 weeks and let other people make cannon fodder of themselves, I can see him sitting in front of the final jury.

#3) Ciera
Is it possible that Wile E. Coyote is going to catch herself some roadrunner?

If Ciera blindsides Mommy she will have earned this card
 
If she can get her mom to shut the hole in her face around camp and at tribal council I strongly believe Ciera makes it to the end of this game.
She’s savvy, people like her, and she is completely useless when it comes to any individual immunity challenge.  Unless, of course, Laura M. is the worst cook in history and Ciera wolfs down the upcoming “delicacies” like Ricky Williams hits a bag of Cheetos.
I believe her best play is this:
Vote out her own mom.  Immediately.
If she does this, she removes the target of having a loved one in her corner, keeps Laura M. from further continuing her campaign of verbal sabotage, and makes her a badass at the final tribal council.
Regardless of what game anyone else has played or claims to have played this season, if she can get up in front of the jury and say, “I blindsided my own mom”, she’s gonna get some votes.

#4) Hayden
With Kat gone, Hayden looks and acts like Andy Dufresne from Shawshank Redemption once he crawled through the pipe filled with poop to his freedom.

Kat's Gone, Game On!
 
However, his freedom is somewhat illusory as physically imposing, likable millionaires who already one a reality show are eventually going to get the attention of others.
If Hayden wins this game it will be a hell of an accomplishment.
His best play now is to buy a couple of weeks by letting the power people snipe at each other, use whatever influence he has without looking like a player to steer votes toward physical threats exclusively, and then go on a massive winning streak in immunity challenges.
It can be done, but it will be tough.

#5) Katie
Well…..
She’s looking a little skinnier than when she first started.  I guess that’s something she can take with her back to the states when this is all over.
I don’t know what game Katie is playing and either does Katie. 
Nobody is scared of this of this woman in any way, shape, or form.  She’ll make it a few more weeks at the very least.
Katie’s best play is to stay away from whatever drama Tina wants to drum up after the Aras blindside.  If she can get hook up with her old buddy Ciera at that point and engineer a little parenticide, she can claim to have done something in this game other than suck.
That having been said, she’s got no shot of winning a million bucks.  No shot.

#6)  Tyson
Tyson has a very good chance of winning this game if he makes it to the jury.
Last week, I would have said there is little chance of this occurring given the high level of his scheming but finding the idol and playing it right can potentially get this guy over the top.
Tyson’s best play is thus:
1)     Don’t get caught stealing coconuts
2)     Don’t tell ANYONE about the idol and use it to blindside someone at a critical moment
3)     Step off the gas and let someone get some of the attention


#7)   Monica
You can only get so far in this game jumping from the bottom of one alliance to the bottom of another.
You can even less far if you undertake this strategy and you are married to Brad Culpepper.
Monica has her wish.  She’s no longer the 5th one out of the other alliance.  She’s now the 5th one out of the other alliance and nobody trusts or likes her anymore.
Her only hope is that people attack her viscously back at camp for her betrayal so she can obtain some sympathy from the people with whom she just joined.
I can’t speak for anyone else, but Tyson, Ciera, and Gervase don’t strike me as the “sympathetic” type when it comes to winning a million bucks.

#8) Tina
This woman has made some serious missteps in the mid-game.
She is already a target for being a previous winner and for still having her daughter on the island.
Tina should have been forging a consortium of people with loved ones remaining, recruiting them with the very real probability that the single folk would systematically wipe one or the other until all blood-partnerships were dissolved.
It was bad enough suggesting to Monica that she has “earned” the right to be at the bottom of their alliance of loved ones, but (if the previews are to be believed) she goes back to camp and starts yelling at people after the vote.
Yep.  That’s some solid strategy there.
Her best hope now is to construct a time machine out of coconut husks and return to the night she told Monica that she’s at the ass-end.  I think Tina really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory here.

#9)  Vytas
My original thought was that Vytas was safer now that Aras is gone but after more careful consideration, it doesn’t matter.  The rest of the power brokers will want to send him to Exile Island knowing that only one of the brothers Greek can make it back.
After the last vote, it would be an absolute catastrophe if the rest of the tribe voted off Aras, turned on each other thinking that Vytas has been neutered, and then seeing Aras pop back in the game in 3-4 weeks.
Vytas’ best play is to control his emotions and go back to what got him this far:  Trust and empathy.
If these people were smart, he would have been gone weeks ago so he needs to know that there is hope here.  Be vulnerable and kind, share the wisdom of the streets, and hope someone does or says something stupid to start a cat fight or a battle of wills.

Plus, I think I remember Vytas saying that he used to heat out of dumpsters when he was on the drugs so maybe he kicks ass at the eating challenge tonight.....
    

Redemption Island:


a)    Aras
I’m not sure who he will be facing, but I think he’ll probably beat them.
 


Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game
Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island
Week 7: #10 of 11 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week 8: #10 of 10 voted off at tribal council:  Picked winner at Redemption Island

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