Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 7 Power Rankings

When I first watched last week’s episode, I thought that Kat played the game with her head firmly jammed up her own butt.

In retrospect, however, I have less issue with what she did than in the manner in which she did it.

Kat is on the weakest tribe, was outside the dominant alliance before the split, and was unlikely to survive more than a week post-Vytas when they would invariably get their ass kicked at the next challenge.

Some might suggest that Rasputin’s spouse would be the next to go and that Kat could have made the merge with a little luck but I am beginning to think that Laura B’s awkward baboonery may actually be playing in her favor.

I half-expect her to get lost on the way to the next immunity challenge or to ask Probst, “Who are you?  Where’s the regular guy?” at the next tribal council.

In any event, Kat probably sense that she needed to make some sort of move and decided upon the “shove a square peg into a round hole and beat the crap out of it” plan.

Tina loves having someone like Monica around to draw friendly fire and Kat’s decision to abandon ship before hitting the iceberg just re-confirmed the validity of that belief.

Tina should have been your target, not Monica. 

Culpepper’s wife is feeling pretty lonely right now after Biff’s ouster, and would likely harbor both jealousy and fear when it comes to the fact that one of her tribe-mates gets to sit around plotting with her loved one all day.

Monica would believe Tina to be capable of duplicity with her family member because that is exactly what Monica would do if she had been re-united with Brad. 

Kat should have been quietly but consistently reminding Monica how dangerous it was for Tina and Katie to be the only 2 family members sharing a tribe.  Perhaps she should have reminded Monica that, once Vytas left, it was only logical that Tina would feverishly begin scrambling to usurp one of them in favor of her daughter.

Laura B is a clown with neither alliance nor loved one so the obvious target would be Monica and/or Kat.

But since that didn’t happen, Kat simply told Tina that Monica strategizes too much, lied after she got ratted out, and then launched into a “I got your back” monologue at tribal that would do nothing but antagonize anyone over the age of 23.

When confronted by Monica, she should have confirmed Tina’s story, voiced her reservations about excessive plotting (mentioning how insecure and frightened it makes her), and then gone straight to Tina.

Her only hope at that point is to suggest that Monica confirmed her suspicions by selfishly putting a target on Tina as an untrustworthy friend who betrays everyone’s confidence at the drop of a hat.

It probably wouldn’t have worked, but when you chose the wrong path and the bridge starts to collapse behind you, you can either run forward and take a chance or cower on ground shouting “I got your back!”

I can’t believe I rated that nincompoop #2 last week……

And now…..Ranking Time!

#1) Gervase

 

He’s just as powerful as Tyson but without the target.

Gervase seems perfectly content to allow the boisterous talker who claims to have no beliefs pit himself publically against Aras and suffer whatever slings and arrows may fly his way.

The tribe is strong, he didn’t drown last episode, and Gervase is in a groove.

#2)  Tyson

It looks like the shoulder is going to be OK so Tyson should hang on for a while yet. 

The game just became more strategic than physical with the merge but his solid alliance with Gervase, coupled with the fact that his tribe couldn’t lose a challenge if they summoned the spirit of Sheri from last season, will get him to the merge.

It might be an error to plot so fervently against Aras when you won’t see a tribal council for at least 2 weeks as it marks you as a dangerous player and gives Aras a chance to find an escape route.

#3) Tina

Tina is in a very tricky spot.

Her tribe sucks and almost certainly have a meeting with Jeff Probst tonight so someone has to go. 

If she wants a shot at a million bucks and to take control now, she needs to knock out Monica and keep Vytas.

1)     It protects her daughter from falling victim to an alliance vote at the merge.

2)     She obtains a valuable ally in Vytas who has proven to be a very resourceful player.

3)     It ingratiates both her and Katie to Aras, who might join in once he realizes that Tyson is gunning for him.

If she knocks out Vytas, then she’s left with a skittish Monica who will feel compelled to split the mom and daughter pair and a baboonish Laura B who is quickly becoming the person everyone wants to keep around.

Getting rid of Vytas may work out OK if Monica decides to wipe out the harmless Laura, but it places her fate (and Katie’s) into the hands of a Culpepper.

If she wants a million bucks for her and/or her kid, it’s move time.  Then she can buy like 3.7 Vytas’ for her daughter at her leisure.

#4) Caleb

With Colton gone, he can fade back into the shadows.

His arbitrary decision to eliminate Brad raised some eyebrows but, well, it was Brad so nobody but Monica cares.

He’s safe and will almost certainly make the merge.

#5) Katie

The editors never talk to this chick so she’s pretty safe if for no other reason.

There are, however, other advantages to her current position:

1)     She has no power and, hence is no threat.

2)     Her mommy will do everything possible to protect her.

There is not a single scenario that I can imagine aside from Vytas schmoozing and then backstabbing her that gets her off the island.

 

#6)  Ciera

Wiley Coyote climbs the board yet again!

As the least threatening member of the dominant tribe, she can sit back quietly and feel which way the wind is blowing, safely casting her vote with the majority.

With Kat gone, the fear of her forming an all-girl alliance at the merge is lessened so she is a woman without any target.

Lets see what she receives in the mail from ACME this week….

#7) Hayden

Even if these guys lose a challenge, I cannot envision any scenario in which Hayden is targeted unless he becomes the only guy on the island who figures out that Tyson and Gervase steal coconuts and gets in a fight about it before the merge.

I suppose he can make himself too chummy with Aras but he’s not as dumb as Kat.

I sense that this guy has some staying power.  On a side note, I do hope he fires Kat at the Redemption challenge.

#8)  Aras

Master Shifu gets #8 because his tribe cannot possibly lose to 3 old ladies, a chick who suffers from exhaustion after turning a puzzle wheel, and his weaker brother.

If they lose, however, Aras is done.
 

#9)   Monica

Monica is playing on borrowed time.  While it was impolitic to point it out, Kat was correct in that she schemes a bit more than necessary at inappropriate times.  Her game is starting to remind me of that blonde chick Andrea that pitched woo with dipshit Eddie last season.

In her eagerness to play the game, she isn’t protecting her pieces.

If Tina’s smart, Monica goes home this week.  I am just not convinced that it will happen.

#10) Rasputin's Wife

She must do 1 of 3 things:

1)     Somehow convince everyone on her tribe to keep her instead of Vytas.

2)     Hop on board with knocking out Monica.

3)     See to it that the tribe wins the next challenge.

Since option #3 is a non-starter, Laura must embrace one of the first 2 options, both of which are pretty viable at this stage in the game.

#11)  Vytas

This merge killed him.

Vytas is playing an incredibly intelligent game, but much like poker, if your cards constantly suck, you will eventually lose.

He’s not out of it yet, but he has the worst odds for survival right now.

Redemption Island:

a)     John

I wouldn’t want to get booted off Survivor and have Candice yell at me either.  John stays.  But hey man, give the clue to Laura B who may actually do something funny with it.

b)    Laura M

She’s smarter than Kat and….uh….smarter than Kat

c)    Kat

If the next challenge is a belching contest I like her odds.  Otherwise, she’s likely done.

Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game

Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island

Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 6 Power Rankings

Just before last week’s immunity challenge, I wanted to voice my belief that the newbie tribe was finally facing a challenge they had a chance of actually winning.

1)     There was no puzzle to confound self-described puzzle guru Cierra.

2)     The challenge involved sliding on your butt until you bumped into a big ring, then tossing it around a pipe.  I am pretty sure this is a high school sport in Butthole, Mississippi or wherever Caleb is from, giving him and his tribe a huge advantage.

3)     While there did not appear to be running water, the slide was moist.  This creates a very real drowning fear in Gervase, disrupting his aim.

Sadly, I did not voice my prediction aloud so I didn’t gain any extra credibility with the spouse.

Following tribal council, I was, initially, more than a little skeptical about Aras’ decision to vote Laura M. off the tribe.

Her puzzle skills are solely responsible for 2 challenge victories and merge time still looks to be a few weeks out given the numbers.

From a strategic perspective, Aras’ best hope is to lay low and let other players garner the bulk of the attention.  Laura’s puzzle skills might make her a tempting target post-merge so, in effect, Aras needed to exert control over strategy, play a blindside card, create an enemy who may actually make it back in the game, and announce himself as not only a physical force, but a strategic one.

It is doubtful Rasputin’s wife would have come anywhere near winning her way out of Redemption Island and anyone who watched the agonizingly awkward way she handled herself before the tribal council cannot possibly fear her as a potential antagonist.

Sometimes, Yoga man, the easy vote IS the smartest one.

Then they showed in the previews that there is going to be a tribe swap and my argument goes to crap.

Tribe swap week is always the hardest to predict and if they decide to re-absorb the Redemption Island people into the game everything listed below becomes bunk.

Since it already sucks bad enough to try and muddle my way through the unknown, I am just going to write as though the redemption people stay put.

Ranking Time!
 

#1) Tina

This swap works great for Tina.  The math suggests that in all likelihood she’ll end up on a majority no matter which tribe she lands upon. 

Also just as likely is that any tribe she lands on will wish to seize upon grand opportunity to vote out a serious physical threat (i.e. a dude) and not a 55 year old woman no matter how often she embarrasses her incompetent daughter in challenges.

#2)  Kat

It matters not where Kat falls either.  She’s not the strongest, she’s not the smartest, and she butts heads with Monica Culpepper.  All of these things work to her advantage this week. 

I mean, who is going to say, “Man that Kat lady just scares the crap out of me.  Plus, I can’t stand the fact that she is enemies with that one bastard’s wife”

Unless it discovered that she was a camp guard in Poland in 1944 or is a Kansas City Chiefs fan, there is not a single compelling reason post-tribe swap to write this chick’s name down.

#3) Gervase

The second half of the Yogi/Boo-Boo alliance has to get the nod here this week over the Nordic-looking guy who also steals coconuts.

Even if Lady Luck totally abandons Boo-Boo and he ends up in the minority on a tribe filled with sissies, his early bastardy and incompetence in water shield him from votes in a way that Tyson cannot hope to enjoy.

#4) Rasputin's Wife

Is there anyone on the island less threatening than this woman?  The clumsy and inept way that she bumbled around camp talking crazy before the last vote actually caused me to become embarrassed as I watched the TV. 

It was like watching Ralph Wiggum pitch woo to Lisa Simpson because she was the only one nice to him at school.  Everyone familiar with the situation cringes inwardly at the attempt, but the perpetrator seems oblivious to the scale of their baboonery.

I wonder if she learned how to be so suave from Rupert?

 

I rate Rasputin’s wife ahead of Tyson because of how harmless she is in both the short and long-term but behind Gervase because of the annoyance factor.

#5)  Tyson

Yogi is reasonably safe for no other reason than simple mathematics.  It is likely that he will have the numbers to survive a tribe swap even though he is a more tempting target than Gervase.

However, if the unthinkable happens and he ends up in the minority on the aforementioned tribe of candy-asses and the other guy with him is not named “Aras”, Tyson is screwed.

Should this happen and his new tribe loses the immunity challenge, I would seriously play up the shoulder injury.  Act like it has gotten so bad that he may end up quitting in a few days, tricking the other tribe into delaying his snuffing with the thought that they may get a freebie later.

 #6)   Monica

If Brad comes back into the game this week Monica is screwed.  Everyone with half a brain knows that she is going to become the loudmouth’s lapdog.

But since I am laboring under the belief that Redemption will stay as is, she should be pretty safe.

However, if she ends up in the minority, there are a lot of people from the other tribe who think her husband is Hitler so they may wish to take a shot at his ticket back to power.

#7)  Aras

And so it comes to the strongest and most likable member of the dominant tribe and alliance.  Even his own people want to see him go on some level.



Aras' prowess will bring his brother down too.

 

It is actually a good thing for Master Shifu that the numbers are not more skewed in his favor as turncoats will be less inclined to wipe him out with the knowledge that still have an insurmountable numerical superiority.

Still, he has some protection for the moment but it would not shock me to see him snuffed through either bad luck or treachery.

#8) Katie

Like everyone else on the list from this point forward, Katie is in the minority.

But just as her lack of male genitalia plagued her early on when the men formed a short-lived cadre, it is now a blessing.  It also doesn’t hurt that her mother is still around to protect or inform her as needed.

While it is clear that Katie’s only chance to win this game is if everyone else dies, that doesn’t mean she can’t parlay her wussiness into a couple more weeks of rice and mediocrity.

 

#9)  Ciera

This woman is like Wile E. Coyote.  No matter how many times she falls off a cliff and you give her up for dead, she’s somehow back the next week for another round of comical failures.

Don't worry.  She'll be back next week.  Again.

 

I rate her below Katie (for the moment) due to her laziness at camp and the fact that she lacks a protector for the moment with her Mom on Redemption Island.

Still, the fact that everyone seems to like her so much despite her ineptitude in challenges and poor work ethic suggests that she may have serious skills when it comes to the social game.  Watch out for the Coyote!

#10) Caleb

"Enemies make dangerous friends."

--Cardassian Proverb

In many ways, Caleb reminds me of the Soviet Red Army at the end of World War II.

You are impressed and delighted that they beat the Germans (Brad Culpepper), but you sure as hell don’t want them hanging out in your country when the war ends.

I think his ouster of the loudmouth bought him some in-game-equity with anyone not named Monica, but his unpredictability makes him a very dangerous ally.

#11) Hayden

Once the numbers diminished, he never really had a good chance.

For Hayden to survive this week, he must either:

a)     Land on a tribe where he and his depleted allies somehow are in the majority

b)     Be on the tribe that wins immunity

c)     Find the Hidden immunity Idol

d)     Wind up on a tribe with Vytas and then remind everyone what a stud Aras is.

#12)  Vytas

How the mighty have fallen.

Yet again, it is likely that the ex-junkie yoga-mathematician will, in the end, get hosed by the fact that he shares parents with the golden boy (Aras). 

It’s too bad the swap happened when it did because this guy is an interesting human being and I hoped he might stick around for a while so I don’t need to suffer “A Day in the Life of Katie”, or “Learn What Makes Laura B Tick”.

He has the same options as Hayden for survival except for option “D”.

Redemption Island:

a)     John

Is it possible that our favorite weeping doctor can channel some of his absent spouse's bad-assery and expunge his soul of the dishonor he accrued through bad play and cry-babiness? 

He can do both physical and mental challenges so I don’t think there is any way he can’t at least get second until the merge.

That having been said, he should really give that clue to someone who will not burn it.  John’s gonna need allies if he can claw his way back in to the game.

b)    Brad

I have a feeling that Biff from Back to the Future will not so easily be silenced.  They’ve had 2 puzzle challenges in a row on redemption and unless they have a 3^rd consecutive mental test, he’ll probably live to fight another day

Laura M. needs to make like a tree, and get out of here.

 

c)    Laura M

Simply put, she needs the producers to come up with some serious mental gymnastics for the redemption challenge or she’s going to be hanging with Blonde Doctor really soon.

Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game

Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island

Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 5 Power Rankings

Yet again, Survivor dishes out comeuppance in ways we wish were more common in the real world.

How many of us have worked for or been disgusted by guys like Biff Culpepper only to see even greater powers reward him/her with greater riches and authority?

It was salve for the soul to see that arse-wagon Brad get snuffed by the wreckage of a tribe that he helped create.

Last week, I opined that John played one of the dumbest games of Survivor in memory. 

Brad Culpepper makes the crying doctor guy look like a mix between Cochran and Hannibal Barca.

There are a couple obvious realities that must be acknowledged in order to be successful in this game:

Reality #1:  If you keep your tribe strong, you won’t NEED to go to tribal council every week. 

Brad’s Plan:  Anything with physical or psychological abilities exceeding that of a terminally ill, crack-addicted house cat must be removed from the tribe posthaste.  Once the tribe is weakened, campaign to vote out more strong members.  This will ensure that you can build a nice, cozy ass-groove in the wood benches at tribal council.

Reality#2:  Form an early alliance and then remain loyal to it long enough to build trust.  Survivor has evolved over the years and the conniving back-stabber can no longer win this game even when sitting next to weaker players in front of the Jury.  Trust is the most valuable commodity available in Survivor.  Players will take a son-of-a-bitch to the finals with them.  They will NOT take an untrustworthy son-of-a-bitch to the finals with them.

Brad’s Plan:  Form a dominant alliance that has the brawn, intellect, and numbers to control the tribe and, potentially, the game.  Wait 3 days.  Then turn on your closest ally and proceed to destroy the advantage you were so lucky to initially enjoy.  After doing so, act shifty around camp and hang out with the 2 remaining members who are not in your alliance, ignoring the summons of your friends.

Reality#3:  Don’t make a target of yourself or associate with those who make targets of themselves.  Factions form quickly and emotions run high in people who have been eating nothing but rice and alligator poop for 2 weeks.  In an effort to avoid unnecessary drama, tribes love the easy vote.

Brad’s Plan:  Be a bastard.  March around camp reminding people that you are calling the shots and they need to do as you command.  Thump your chest and proclaim yourself to be an enormous physical threat. 

Reality#4:  Bite your lip and save your venting and confessions for the private interviews.  The viewing audience wants to hear what a sneaky and angry bastard you are.  Your tribe mates do not.

Brad’s Plan:  Sit smirking on a bench at Redemption Island for the 3^rd straight week as yet another member of the tribe you have led to the abyss is about to get whacked.  Eliminate any sympathy you might have garnered from the vitriol spewing from Candice and John by telling the ally you betrayed that he was foolish to have trusted you.  Make sure to say it loud enough that everyone on the island can hear it.

If this were my old company, Culpepper would have been promoted, given a sizable pay increase, and assigned additional resources to abuse. 

But since Survivor is cooler than telecom, he’s been offed.  God Bless Jeff Probst.

Let’s talk rankings:

 

 

#1)  Tyson

The one-armed bandit has found a right-hand-man to help him proceed in this game.  If he and Gervase can keep stealing coconuts and maintain their alliance on the down-low, they are in great shape. 

Nobody will suspect these guys of divided loyalties at the merge since their loved ones are gone and nothing clears the mind for strategizing like a belly full of stolen coconut.

Yoga Bro1 and Yoga Bro2 are obvious threats.  The danger posed by Yogi and Boo-Boo is less evident.

Tyson and Gervase love them some stealing

 

Tyson can still compete even with a bum shoulder and is growing in strength daily.  I rank him above Gervase only because he saves his dickery for the private interviews whereas his partner in crime has yet to master this talent.

#2) Gervase

Gervase had a rough start to overcome but has acquitted himself well in the past weeks.

1)     He did not gloat at the challenges.

2)     He did not almost drown at the challenges.

3)     He spoke his mind to Monica without giving offense, earning the trust of his tribe.

4)     He and Yogi (Tyson) steal coconuts and the remaining people think that crabs are eating them.

He and Tyson both have advantages and disadvantages.  Tyson is more likely to win at the very end but Gervase is more attractive as a 3^rd wheel for the final jury.

If things stay as they are, these guys may flip-flop from time to time but Yogi and Boo-Boo need to find a 3^rd person to give their alliance-within-the-alliance a numbers edge should it get down to 5.

#3)  Aras

He is still the likable zen master of the dominant alliance on the dominant tribe but Aras gets dropped because (as far as we know) he has not yet formed an alliance-within-the-alliance.  It also appears that Master Shifu will become very vulnerable the moment his gang of 5 has a 5-3 numbers advantage.

Nobody wants to be seated next to him at the end, his brother is also pretty threatening, and his own physical prowess could earn him an early jury spot.

 

#4) Tina

She’s not a physical threat.  Her daughter is weak and innocuous.  She’s in the dominant alliance. 

Unless she has a silver tongue stashed away in her buff to pull out in front of the jury, Tina’s not a threat to win the game.

As a result, she’s also not a threat to go home.

#5)  Vytas

I don’t know exactly why, but I feel like Vytas would instinctively know that Tyson and Gervase are stealing coconuts.

 

Vytas and this guy would know something was up

 

In fact, if he would be willing to betray his brother, I suspect Vytas would be the perfect 3^rd wheel to the Yogi and Boo-Boo alliance.

I am ranking him 4^th even though his tribe sucks because I think he would indeed be willing to betray the golden boy and this makes him pretty valuable to any new faction once the merge occurs. 

He’s still got a 3-2 numbers advantage within his own tribe and Caleb trusts him so if they can win just 1 challenge he’ll probably make the merge.

#6)  Heydan

I just kind of like this guy.  So do Caleb and Vytas.  As I mentioned above, he’s 1 challenge win away from getting to the merge unless they do a shuffle or something. 

His reluctance to write down Brad’s name in the confusion of the re-vote can easily be explained and shows that he is loyal to the remaining 2 members of his old alliance.

#7) Caleb

I applaud Caleb for manning up, taking charge, and wiping the tribe of Biff.  However, it is debatable that making oneself the leader of a weak and dysfunctional tribe is the best move.

If he plays too aggressively, people will start associating him with his departed fiancé and this will spell disaster.

I also think the “If I give that guy a million bucks then Colton becomes a rich man” thought will cost him in the long run.

 #8)   Monica

There are two primary considerations leading to this low ranking for Monica.

1)     She is shackled to her butthole husband who everyone despises.

2)     The aforementioned butthole husband may just be self-important and delusional enough to accept her offer to switch spots at Redemption Island even though I have a better chance of winning the million dollars this season than he does.

In order for Monica to salvage her game, Brad needs to go home.  Soon.

#9) Rasputin's Wife

It seems that the wife of the intense holy man also has eerie powers. 

She can make both you and the editors forget she is even on the island…..

#10) Laura

Do you think Ciera feels better that her mom always weeps while she is kicking her ass?

#11)  Kat

She should rate above Laura for her physicality but I think her tribe may try to take a shot at Hayden via Kat’s ouster.

If it were me, I’d keep Kat around longer than either of the other ladies outside the alliance for no other reason than she appears incapable of effective deceit.

However, the fact that she is almost never interviewed gives me the feeling that she may be here awhile yet.

I guess if they talk to her a bunch tonight she’s getting voted off.  Steel yourselves

#12) Katie

Caleb likes her more than Ciera so if he decides to blow up what’s left of “The Man Show”, he’ll take Katie farther along in the game if he gains control.

The fact that her Mom will probably be around longer than Ciera’s gives her the potential for greater longevity.

#13)  Ciera

Every time disaster seems imminent, she somehow dodges the bullet.  If she were a hockey goalie, her goalposts would be riddled with dents from shots ringing off it.

Ciera and this seal are kind of the same dude.

 

At what point, one must ask, does pure dumb luck enter the realm of destiny?

I’m setting the bar at 3 more weeks.

I don’t think she’ll make it that far unless her team rattles off a bunch of wins.

Lazy people who suck in challenges have a very short shelf-life pre-merge.

Redemption Island:

a)    Candice

I don’t bet against the Harlem Globetrotters and I don’t bet against Blonde Doctor.

b)    Brad

I have no idea who is going to win the survival challenge at Redemption. 

I do think it would be funny as hell if Brad and Candice have to start spending the night together so I’m rooting for this combination.

c)     John

I think he is going to press too hard here in order to look like a manly man in front of his much tougher wife.  I know he’s a doctor and an army vet and all but he’s kind of a dumbass and cries a lot. 

Week: 2 #10 out of 17 voted off at tribal council:  

Week: 3 #16 out of 16 quit game

Week: 4 #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island
Week: 5 #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island