Trying to Regain My Self-Respect: Frey’s Playoff Picks

 0-3-1.

I feel great shame for the epic fail of last week’s predictions.

Still, I thoroughly reject the axiom that “if you never take a position, you can never be wrong.”  I could sit around and say “anything can happen” or “It could go either way” but then I’d be a sissy.

My first act in what I hope is my very short quest toward regaining my mojo is to survey the landscape, find some solid ground, and plant my foot firmly upon it! 

No hedging and equivocation here my friends!  It’s time for some Holmes, but whether it be Sherlock or the lizard from that Cheech and Chong movie will not be known until after Sunday.

San Francisco at Atlanta (+4)

On paper, taking a road team that is traveling all the way across the country to play the #1 seed in a hostile dome environment looks foolish.  Still, that is exactly what I am going to.  San Fran has a series of advantages going into this game:

1)      Atlanta’s fans are really shitty.  I’m not even sure if they sold the game out yet.  Worse yet, unlike most southerners, Atlanta locals aren’t generally belligerent and drunk on Sunday mornings/early afternoons.  This will mitigate crowd noise.

2)      Unlike Seattle, who had to play their game last week at what would have been 8:00 AM Pacific and were understandably sluggish in the first half, the Niners game starts at noon Pacific, eliminating the time factor.

3)      The Falcons are overrated and have a history of choking.  Moreover, Manti Te’o has picked against the Falcons and since he is a gentleman that knows a fraud when he sees one, I’m jumping in on the ground floor.

4)      The 49ers are better.

I think San Francisco win by 6-10 here.  Take the Niners and give the 4.

Baltimore at New England (-8.5)

Baltimore better find an emotional edge in this game because they will not find any other advantages. 

Their chief offensive weapon involves tossing pop flies downfield hoping for miracles.

 Their defense gave up 30 first downs to a Denver team whose game plan must have made Dan Reeves and Sammy Winder wax nostalgic.

The only thing their special teams did right was to have their return specialist run a decoy fly pattern at the end of the 4^th quarter only to catch Rahim Moore staring  serenely into the great unknown dreaming of electric blankets and space heaters.

The Pats (robbed of a win against Baltimore earlier this year by replacement refs) will come out aggressively, reminding the Ravens that they shouldn’t be there to begin with. 

I expect The Hoodie to send a message to Baltimore, to whomever they play for the Super Bowl, and (hopefully) to the timid Broncos, that crappy teams should not expect anything but a good old fashioned ass kicking when running into a team of quality.

The Patriots win this one going away.

Let the road to recovery begin!

Last week 0-3-1

Playoff record 2-5-1

Lamentations and Analysis of the Broncos Debacle

The dust has settled. 

With heavy hearts, we return quietly to our own small corner of the world and try to be content with the comings and goings of those in our lives.

Even those of us who love the game of football are having trouble showing any interest in the remaining games.

Countless blogs, talk-shows, and newspaper articles have dissected the lost battle against Baltimore and while the record is replete with missed assignments, bone-headed plays, tired arms in cold weather, turnovers, and bad luck, I believe that our ignominious defeat can be tied to one overriding factor:  Fear.

“Fortune Favors the Bold”

--Publius Vergilius Maro

When bold strokes and courageous acts were demanded, the Broncos took the safe road while a clearly inferior Baltimore team relentlessly took the fight to us.

When Prater worm-burned that 52 yard field goal near the end of the half, John Harbaugh did not say, “Well I’d sure hate to throw a pick here and give em the ball back with so little time on the clock.  We’d better run up the middle 3 times like a bunch of pansies and go inside to lick our wounds.”

Instead, they drove 58 yards in 3 plays, put the ball in the end zone, and tied the game.

We got the ball back at the 20 with all 3 timeouts and 36 seconds on the game clock.  If we can get the same 58 yards Baltimore did in 7-8 plays (not 3 as the Ravens did) we kick a 39 yard field goal and Holliday’s TD on the ensuing kickoff puts us 2 scores ahead making this a totally different ballgame.

What message does this surrender send to your team? 

“Hey, you’ve got a Hall of fame QB and plenty of time on the clock but you guys really look cold and frightened.  In fact, I think you are more likely to vomit on the sideline benches and turn the ball over than to move a few yards up field.  We’d better go inside and reflect upon the first half and warm our tootsies.”

“Success is the child of audacity”

--Benjamin Disraeli

Amazingly, despite despairingly ill-timed penalties and obvious tightness, we had the ball in our hands with 2:26 on the game clock and a 1^st and 10 after 2 strong runs from Ronnie Hillman (though I contend a play-action on 2^nd and 2 would have yielded huge gains).  1 more first down and the game is over.

Baltimore throws 8 men in the box in desperation and then crowds the line, daring us to do something, anything, other than run the ball up the gut. 

Tragically, the Ravens coaching staff foresaw the quality of our mettle and we obligingly plunged right into the teeth of their defense 3 straight times, even using the plodding Jacob Hester (runs a 6.9 40) on 2^nd and 8 to ensure that there would be no chance of a big gain.  Baltimore lives to fight another day.

What message does this surrender send to your team? 

“Hey, I know that these guys are completely ignoring the possibility that we will pass the ball here but I think you bunch of dipshits will do something stupid.  Let’s just give em what they want and prepare for next week’s ass-kicking at the hands of the Patriots.”

“L'audace, l'audace. Toujours l'audace!" (Audacity, audacity.  Always audacity!)

--Danton

 31 seconds.  20 yard line.  2 time outs.  1 Hall of fame QB. 

A no-brainer right?  You can’t let this game go into OT.  It should never have come to this to begin with.  You go out there, try your collective butts off to scrape, steal, beg, or cheat your way down field with the 5-7 plays you have before time expires.  You need 50 yards and then even the erratic Prater should have a decent shot at winning the game. 

If you succeed, the game is over and we can all talk about what a close call it was.  If you fail, then at least your team can head out for the OT coin flip secure in the knowledge that they took the fight to the Ravens to the bitter end and the coaches still have confidence in everyone who takes the field. to continue the struggle.

We took a knee. 

We took a freaking knee! 

I don't know how John Elway didn’t leap out of the box and pistol-whip the coaching staff.  I do not believe for a minute that #7 (despite his public insistence to the contrary) would ever have happily thrown in the towel with 31 seconds and 2 time outs left.  In fact, I guarantee he would have punched Shannahan in that red little face of his until he relented and allowed him to go down and win the game.

You could feel the souls get collectively sucked from the entire offense as the 3^rd vote of no confidence came in from the sidelines.  The chill of the frigid mountain air entered the hearts of the Broncos and even Baltimore’s mediocrity in OT was not enough to rekindle any hope.  With despair (and a grim feeling of the inevitability of the final result) lingering over the field long after Tucker’s field goal split the uprights, Denver’s magical season ended not with a bang, but with a whimper….

“It never troubles the wolf how many the sheep may be”

--Virgil

I despise the Patriots.  I may, in fact, dislike them more than even the Raiders and Cowboys. 

However, after this weekend, I see clearly now that their SOB coach will keep them at a level of excellence for many more years to come.

The Patriots innovate.  They run trick plays and college offenses just to be arse-holes.  They don’t look at the numbers and odds but instead look to the men on the New England sideline.

They realize that scared money never wins, and morale is king on the battlefield.

Belichik will see a 4^th and 2 at his own 35 and go for it, because he knows that even if his Hall of fame QB can’t pick up the 2 yards, then at least the men will know that their leader believes in them.  If they lose that game, then the coaching staff in Cheaterville knows that the benefits of investing in morale will pay dividends for many games and, perhaps, even season to come.

If he has a lead and the opponent recklessly flings his defenders into the line, he’ll go ahead and throw it, running up the score a bit.  He takes the battle to his foes, and if the enemy wins, then they were better that day but they sure as hell had to earn it.

I despise New England.  And I am envious.

We have purchased an aging but still blindingly fast stallion in Manning and then saddled him with an overweight jockey who is scared of horses.  We’ll still win a few regional races, but the big day will always see us lagging tentatively behind, afraid to use either the carrot or the whip wondering when our steed will finally need to be put out to pasture.

Somewhere, an aging Marty Schottenheimer is smiling……

What the Hell Just Happened in Denver?

Stunned.  Speechless.  Shocked.  Flummoxed.

 

1)  Who kidnapped Champ Bailey and replaced him with Wyman Henderson?  Smith should have had 4 TD's in the first half and if Flacco wasn't uncharacteristically inaccurate on his deep ball today he would have.

 

2)  In 35 years of watching football, I have never seen a worse gaffe than Rahim Moore letting a kick return specialist get behind him with 35 seconds left in a game with a 7 point lead and then time his jump with almost comic prematurity.  I guess once he lined up in the wrong place I should have known.......

 

3)  Why in the name of all that is good and pure would we run up the middle with a 126 pound Ronnie Hillman on 3 and 7 when a first down wins the game?  Worse still, John Fox channeled his inner-Dennis Green and had our 100 million dollar QB take a knee with 31 seconds left and 2 timeouts.  Waving the white flag here sucked the souls out of offense.  This type of conservatism makes Glenn Beck look like Che Guevara.

 

4)  10 penalties?  What are we the freaking Raiders?  Not only that, the penalties came at the most crucial times.  Our Coaching sucked today.  Sucked.

 

The Ravens played with more boldness.  We played not to lose.  The spirit of attack is borne of a brave heart and we tiptoed through the tulips.  I saw a lot of 3-man rushing packages but no confidence.  Where was the swagger?  We had 4 golden opportunities to close out the game and could not man up.  Our Coaching sucked today.  Sucked.

 

Mental gaffes.  Penalties.  Hyper-conservatism.  Defeat.

 

This game feels worse to me than 1996.  I didn't get the feeling that we ran into a team that caught lightening in a bottle, I felt like we were exposed.

 

If that meathead Harbaugh is going to out-coach us this severely then I shiver to think of what the Hoodie would have done to us next week.

 

Awful.  Just Awful. 

 

Hot Soup: Frey's NFL Divisional Playoff Analysis

OK before you start yammering off about my 2-2 record last week, I must make it known that Christian Ponder’s surprise scratch occurred after my post.  I mean Ponder sucks, but watching Webb last week caused me physical pain.  That dude made Andy Dalton look like…well…Dalton still looked like crap but maybe a smaller or less offensive pile.

How the hell, in this age of Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and government spy cams in toilet bowls can the starting QB of a playoff team be a virtual shoe-in for the bench and nobody hears about it? 

I suspect that Meyer Lansky returned from the grave and dropped some sizable cabbage on the Pack….

In any event, let’s get to this week quickly because I have my Lasik surgery tomorrow and forgot that I hadn’t written my post.

 

Baltimore at Denver (-9 ½)

If any of you read my post from earlier this week, and judging by the page view data you haven’t, you’d probably know where I’m going with this. 

Denver has a much better offense.  Denver has a much better defense.  Baltimore sucks on the road and we have re-discovered the old Mile High magic.  We have a better than average QB under center.  Don’t even get me started on what a wang Joe Flacco is.

I keep hearing people expressing concern about the cold weather like we’re playing the 2001 Ravens or something.  Guess what?  Compared to the chuckleheads we’re playing, we’re the 2001 Ravens.

Listen, I’m not going to guarantee anything because I remember ’96 like it was yesterday despite my constant inebriation back in my early 20’s, but unless the Donkeys commit a couple of egregious turnovers, I can’t see Denver winning by fewer than two touchdowns much less losing the game.

Can anyone who hasn’t been drinking moonshine honestly tell me that the Ravens are going to march the ball up and down the field on the road against this defense without benefitting from some serious short fields or defensive TD’s? 

I love my Broncos and am almost wanting to do the reverse jinx here just to placate the inner peasant in me that is riddled with superstitions, but Karma’s not stupid and would know I was bullshitting everyone.

Baltimore doesn’t have a prayer unless they score 27 or more. 

They won’t.

Broncos by double digits

 

Green Bay at San Francisco (-2 ½)

Tough game here.

San Francisco is competent offensively, has home field advantage, and is extremely stout on ‘D’.  They have beaten some of the league’s best teams (including this week’s opponent), have a proud and honored tradition, and some damn fine cuisine.

Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers.

If I were a betting man (and I am), I couldn’t in good conscience wager my hard-earned coin that a mercurial rookie QB starting in only his 8^th game will outperform an elite and playoff tested former league and Super Bowl MVP.

Rodgers has no fear of the bay area.  Not only did he play his college ball at Cal, but he thumped his way around the Berkeley campus proudly and loudly professing his staunch Christian beliefs.  This guy has sack! 

I’m more of a Odin/Thor guy myself, but I’m leaning Packers to win outright here. 

 

Seattle at Atlanta (-2)

I cannot recall ever having seen a home playoff favorite getting less respect than the Falcons.

Let me be the first to say that on a neutral field I’d take the ‘Hawks in a heartbeat but last I checked, the Falcons are 20-4 at home over the last 3 seasons whereas Seattle is 8-16 on the road.

2 opposing historical forces are at play here:

a)      Seattle is brutal away from Coffeville

b)      The Falcons hate winning playoff games no matter where they play

Something has to give here and I'm guessing that Atlanta will finally get off the shnide and win a home playoff game. 

It’ll be very close, but I suspect that Russell Wilson’s rookie tendency to take a Stafford (3^rd down sack that knocks your team out of field goal range) will haunt the Starbucks this year.  Falcons win and barely cover.

Houston at New England (-9 ½)

We all know that the dirty rat-bastard cheaters from the Northeast are good and now they are more rested and healthier than at any point this year aside from the first couple weeks.

Houston burst onto the scene like a meteor, flashed brilliantly in the sky, and burned up into a steaming black lump under the weight of expectations. 

The Texans know nobody thinks they’ll win.  Hell, the Texans probably don’t think they’ll win.

And that, my friends, is precisely when they are at their best! 

You see? 

Nobody expects them to do anything anymore.  They’re done.  Useless.  May as well get David Carr out of whatever insurance or landscaping company he works for now and go back to the 5-11 days when nobody with a hat less than 10 gallons really gave a rats furry little arse about Houston.

Even last week these kind-hearted and sensitive souls didn’t want to disappoint their home audience and damn near lost to a Bengals team who quarterback played with an almost terrifying hideousity.

The weight of competency no longer burdens the backs of the Confederates.  Look for a steady diet of Arian Foster (I guess the name Adolf was taken when he was born) and enjoy a game far closer than most people expect.

I think the Hoodie-Cheaters pull it out late when Brady sends his wife into the throws of passion by both throwing and catching the %$#@ing ball but the Texans cover the 9 ½.

 

Last week 2-2

Stop the Madness and Take Heart Broncos Fans!

“Who have they beaten?”

“The AFC West sucks.”

“Payton can only play in domes.”

If you give credence to any of the aforementioned statements, then you are a nincompoop, a defeatist, or just sadly misinformed.

I’ve had enough of the anti-Bronco nonsense being propagated by the legion of small-brained Easterners who wake up each morning in the loving embrace of a life-sized Tome Brady blow-up doll.

Who have the Broncos beaten?  More teams than anyone else in the AFC and all of the losses came at the very beginning of the season when we were sporting a new offense, a new Defensive Coordinator, and a QB who hadn’t played in a year and a half coming off of 4 neck surgeries playing for a new team.

This is not the same bunch of dudes who lost 3 early games (2 on the road) to teams with a combined record of 37-11.

Denver’s record against playoff teams this year is 2-3.  You what New England’s record is this year against playoff teams?  2-3!  The only difference is we didn’t lose to the dog-ass Cardinals at home.

I know what you might be thinking.  We are not playing the cheater Patriots, we’re playing the Ravens.  True, but that’s OK.  They are 2-4 against playoff teams in addition to their losses to such powerhouses as Philadelphia and the Charlie Batch-led Pittsburgh Steelers.

In fact, no team still playing in the AFC has a winning record against playoff teams.  Houston was 3-4 going into last week’s home squeaker against a misfiring Bengals squad. 

When did losing early games to strong opponents become a more damning condemnation of a team’s potential than getting bitch-slapped by crap-hole  teams like Arizona, St. Louis, and Philly? 

Does the AFC West suck?  You bet it sucks.  It sucks big time.  You know what else sucks?  The AFC North and the AFC East.  Tennessee?  Buffalo?  Miami?  The dysfunctional Jets? Jacksonville?!  I’d put the Chargers up against any one of those blubberputts and expect a win.  The only team outside the Patriots and Texans with any respectability is a lucky, overrated Colts team benefitting from high emotions and a last place schedule. 

Which leads us to the uneducated fan’s favorite Mantra, “Manning can only play indoors.”

I suppose if 30350 yards, a 64.9% completion percentage, 205 TDs against only 107 INTs, and a Quarterback Rating of 93.7% can be labeled as “crappy” then I guess he can’t play outdoors.

Are the stats slightly better indoors?  Of course they are!  He played all his home games in a dome for 13 years!  Check out any starting QB’s stats over a number of years and I guarantee that anyone not named Tony Romo is going to look better playing at home than toiling in hostile road conditions.

Take heart Broncos fans!  Cast off the chains of your doubt and raise both your spirits and expectations to the skies!  We are reasonably healthy, enjoy home field advantage throughout the playoffs, have a top 5 offense, an even better defense, solid coaching, and one of the greatest men ever to don a jersey sitting behind center.

And even if, which I do not for a moment believe, Manning can only play indoors during the playoffs, then the NFC is in grave danger when we meet them in New Orleans Superdome!

Don’t listen to the New England-philes, defeatists, and closet Raiders fans.  They are at the low end of the human curve.  I also have it on good authority that while Oakland fans are little more than simpletons, Patriots fans root for the Germans in war documentaries.

Go Broncos!

NFL Season Wrap-up and Playoff Picks

In retrospect, the 2012 NFL season was comfort food. 

Teams that have endeared themselves to us with their crappiness (Bills, Browns, Lions, Cardinals, Raiders, Tampa) regained their form while franchises recently more accustomed to a certain level of excellence (Denver, New England, Green Bay, Baltimore) have retained or re-established their relevance.

A Mike Shanahan coached team ran the hell out of the football, Tony Romo got the yips when it mattered, AP was AP, Norv was Norv, and Jay Cutler bitched at his teammates.

Atlanta continued on as a regular season powerhouse, San Francisco beat up on these types of powerhouses but then laid down for patsies, and Indianapolis hitched their wagon to a last place schedule and skilled rookie QB and rolled into the playoffs.

Since most people fear and detest change, this season was a welcome dose of nostalgia.

My season record against the spread stands at 140-116.  If you guys had listened to me and bet 1 million dollars on every game, you would have won 24 million dollars!  That’s right!  24 MILLION DOLLARS!  Of course Vegas or the bookmaker gets 10% of that, Uncle Sam takes around 40%, the spouse grabs about 83% of what trickles through the tax machine but still, the remaining wealth would have been definitely worth it!

The fact that I am writing this and not drinking a coconut porter and eating a taco from Pat’s Taqueria on Hanalei Beach should serve as an indication that I too did not bet on these games but that is neither here nor there…..

In any event, let us refrain from such lamentations and look to that which makes us the superior to all foreigners:  The NFL Playoffs!

Cincinnati at Houston (-4 ½)

Under normal circumstances, I eschew the “hot team” theory in opening rounds of the playoffs.  Recent history is replete with teams bumbling their way into the postseason and then beating a superior team at home (Denver over Pittsburgh 2011, Seattle over New Orleans 2010). 

Still, Houston looks really, really bad and Gary Kubiak is starting to look more and more like a young Marty Schottenheimer.  Cincy has a robust pass rush, skilled corners, and a studmoss receiver in AJ Green.

Giving 4 ½ points away and taking a team that is as shaky as a Frenchman in a thunderstorm would be offensive to doctors, women, and monkeys.

I see a close game either way because the Texans are at home but I don’t think they beat the spread even with the law firm (Benjarvis Green-Ellis) with a sore hamstring on the docket.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9 ½)

Another one of the many pleasures provided by this NFL season is that it assisted in fostering  my healthy dislike for the Packers. 

My opponent in our fantasy football championship game had Aaron Rodgers.  Watching these a-holes not only keep him in the game with a 30 point second half-lead, but having him taking shots at the end zone until damn near kneel-down time is more than I can suffer as a civilized human being.

It’s like Mike McCarthy caught Titan’s owner Bud Adams in bed with his wife or something….

If the aforementioned circumstance was not the case, and there is such a thing as Karma, everyone involved in the Packers organization (including the rubes that purchased a public share of the team) will come back in the next life as toilet brushes.

As far as the game is concerned, I’m pretty sure Green Bay wins but the spread seems unjustifiably large considering that the Vikings just ramrodded the Packers last week in Minnesota.

For both Karmic and empirical reasons, I’m going with the Scandinavians to cover.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6 ½)

Everyone likes a good story. 

As a wee-one, my parents told me of a white-robed old one that brought gifts to well-behaved children during the yule season.

I gleefully watched Jean-Luc Picard wrangle with Romulan Empire, Bludgeon the Borg, and Castigate the Cardassian Union.

Watching the Colts rise from the ashes of last season like a Phoenix, scrap for every yard in an effort to honor their valiant and embattled head coach, and knock down the Texans to secure a #1 seed for my beloved Broncos has been most gratifying.

However, the story can also be told like this:

There once was a crappy team who picked a really good QB in the first round of the draft.  They played a lot of close games against crummy opponents but secured enough victories by virtue of their last-place schedule to make the playoffs.

As the eternal optimist, I prefer story #1.

Even so, as a realist and a student of history, I know that for every “Rudy”, “Rocky”, or “Daniel LaRusso”, there are five hundred Anne Bolyns.

Sadly, the Ravens win and cover here.

Seattle at Washington (+1)

To my thinking, this is the game of the week.  2 outstanding Rookie QBs supported by excellent running attacks. 

From what I have seen thus far, thou doth not betteth against RG III lest one don the jester’s hat for the amusement of thine companions.

The Seahawks, however, are on such a roll that their players are even winning appeals to the commissioner’s office.  This is akin to a tornado missing a trailer park.  I would be a fool to oppose Seattle when it is clear that they have the blessing of the gods.

As far as the ‘Skins are concerned, it obvious they have the firm support of Mars/Ares given the continued reddening of Mike Shanahan.  I believe an e-mail from Brian Friedrich in Aurora sums up what we are all feeling:

I no longer know what to make of Mike Shannahan’s pigmentation.  For a while it seemed like he was trying to turn red to match his Redskins jacket, but he achieved that shade a couple weeks ago.  If he continues past that, then I’m no longer sure what the end goal is.  What is more red then red?  Infrared, maybe?  Can you heat a Cup O’Noodles using only a picture of Shannahan’s face?

I have said before that his red skin and his complete lack of lips make him look like Muno from Yo Gabba Gabba, but now I think there is something more sinister going on. 

COULD MIKE SHANNAHAN BE TURNING INTO SATAN HIMSELF?

If so, what happens when we finally get Shannahan vs Tebow?  Are our souls at stake?  What if I want to ride with RG3 – does that align me with the prince of darkness?  And what does that make Kyle Shannahan?  Does that make him the duke of darkness?  Is that why Duke is known as the Blue Devils?  Why isn’t Mike Krzyzewski turning red then?  Or blue, for that matter?

I have a headache.

The above is an extremely compelling argument on behalf of Washington and I am tempted to lean that way but Seattle’s scary-good defense is forcing me the other direction.

I’m going Seahawks in a squeaker.

The End is Nigh! Frey's Week 17 NFL Picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-3 ½)

Despite their recent victories over some pretty questionable teams, I still feel that Atlanta is not as good as their 13-2 record might suggest. 

Now, they are a slightly overrated 13-2 team playing a game for which they have absolutely nothing to gain by winning. 

I am leaning toward the Bucs here.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-3 ½)

I’ve suffered one too many humiliating kicks in the crotch from the Bills:  The Rams game form 2 weeks ago.  The Music City Miracle.  The 90’s….

More importantly, I cannot remember a time when any team carrying a violently angry Tim Tebow on their roster has ever failed to cover in Buffalo.

J-E-T-S-L-O-L .

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2 ½)

The most meaningless game of the season without question.  Both teams are in the playoffs already.  Both teams cannot do anything to improve or diminish their respective seedings.  Both will have to play in the first round, and both need to avoid any additional costly injuries. 

However, both teams are not playing at home.  Take the Bengals as they may play just a little harder to ensure that Cinci-tucky fans with the IQ’s of golf bags don’t boo as much.

Chicago at Detroit (+3 ½)

The catastrophic collapse of Detroit (inevitable as it may have been given the cesspool of a city in which they play) has been most enjoyable.  I mean, their best player likes to kick people in the dong. 

All the cards are on the table, the pot is right, and Chicago is all in.  Everything hinges on this one game.  Win this one and there is a very good chance they can have a postseason for redemption.  Lose and all hope is lost.

This is precisely the type of game in which Norvy Smith and his QB, Captain Sulky, eat the proverbial poo.

Dong-Kickers cover.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4 ½)

If you want to read anything about this game, go elsewhere.  We only talk about football here.

Houston at Indianapolis (+3 ½)

The return of Chuck Pagano in front of a raucous home crowd is certain to bolster the hearts and fortify the souls of the Colts! 

It should be a very interesting first half of football before Indy pulls their starters and prepares for their improbable playoff run.

Sorry Broncos fans.  Houston wins this one and covers.

Carolina at New Orleans (-4 ½)

Both these teams seem to be at their best when there is absolutely no pressure on them to do anything.

I think that many Saints fans are secretly hoping for a small, motivational hurricane, to get them off to a better start next year.

Should someone succeed in convincing  brainy Auburn grad Cam Newton that a victory puts them in the playoffs, I’d bet my house on New Orleans.

If “scared money never wins” and both teams know they are playing for a 40 cent pot, expect an excellent, precise game with the home team emerging victorious.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7 ½)

Well the tidal wave of rotating brilliance and buffoonery that served me so well in predicting the Giants’ fortunes finally crashed on the beaches of Baltimore last week.

Much like the Redsox fan that wandered the streets of Boston confused and without purpose after they finally won the World Series, I too must come to terms with a world that no longer makes any sense.

Oh wait!  Michael Vick is starting this week for a crappy Philly team!  It all makes sense again.  Take the Giants to cover.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6 ½)

I feel a great comfort in the fact that I have regained my self-respect and am refusing to bet on either Cleveland or the Bills to do anything other than disappoint. 

I can almost feel the stock market rebounding and the recession ending. 

I know that Pittsburgh has looked abysmal of late and that Big Ben has looked like garbage but come on man!  These are the Browns!  Recapture the natural order of things and bet Steelers here.

Green Bay at Minnesota (+3 ½)

This game will tell us much about both these teams.  Is Green Bay back to the level of excellence that made them Super bowl favorites?  Are the Vikings’ successes this season nothing more than smoke and mirrors?

For a number of reasons, Minnesota reminds me of last year’s Broncos with a slightly less crappy QB and a superior running back.  This makes them good enough to beat confused, injured, and fading teams like Houston but I don’t think they can hang with the resurgent Pack.

Miami at New England (-10 ½)

One of the most gratifying things about this season (aside from not having to watch the Broncos go 3-and-out 17 times each game) is that the early losses of good teams kept those ancient, annoying, overrated 1972 Dolphins hacks from polluting the airwaves. 

As much as the 1972 Dolphins were overrated, the current incarnation of the Dolphins is not overrated. They’re just not that good and everyone knows this.

The Pats did not handle their business particularly well last week against the Jags but if one thing can be said about the Patriots it is that they cheat and are scum.  I also think they want to head into the postseason without the specter of struggling against 2 crappy teams in a row hanging over their shoulders.

Oakland at San Diego (-4 ½)

The Admiral Akbar Game of the Week. You know the drill. Click Here

Oakland is on the road, losers of 11 games, and fiercely debating whether to start Tyrell Pryor or Matt Leinart in place of the injured Carson Palmer.

How can any losing team faced with choosing between death by impaling and death by evisceration be only a 4 ½ point underdog on the road? 

Akbar my friends.  Akbar.

As I am wont to do, I’ll fall into the trap.  Give me the Bolts.

Arizona at San Francisco (-14 ½)

Arizona may be the only team in the NFL (aside from this week’s Raiders) where Tim Tebow would be an upgrade at the QB position. 

As a fan of excellence, watching a talent like Larry Fitzgerald languish in QB purgatory causes me great sadness.  Somebody needs to launch a “Free the Irishman” campaign and get him to come here to Denver.

San Francisco needs this game far too badly to show up flat.  49ers roll and roll big.  The Cardinals are so bad that even their garbage time +/- is crappy.


Kansas City at Denver (-15 ½)

I'm gonna jump right into the gambler's fallacy here.   Week after glorious week I keep predicting a Broncos win but a back-door cover by our opponent.  My friends, this is just a ton of points to lay down to any division opponent, particularly one with a stout running game on what is forecast to be a very cold day. 

If we lose this game, I'll tatoo a picture of Brady Quinn on my buttocks but I just don't like the number this week. 

31-16 looks really plausible right now. 

St. Louis at Seattle (-10 ½)

My goodness what the hell happened up in Seattle?  I don’t know what’s more unheard of, a point differential of +120 in 3 games or the fact that a player actually won a PED appeal.

There are some possible seeding ramifications here and while the Rams are indeed an underrated and well-coached opponent, I see no reason to start doubting a team with such a powerful home presence and a coach that calls fake punts when ahead by 62 points.

Seahawks cover the 10 ½.

Dallas at Washington (-3 ½)

This is the classic example of how historical trends are going to be both re-affirmed and broken regardless of the result of the game.

If Dallas wins, it sends Shanahan to yet another late defeat as the home favorite to deny him a playoff spot but also disrupts the tendency of Dallas to fade late, miss the playoffs, and fire their coach.

If the Redskins win, Shanahan finally gives history the finger and wins a game he is supposed to win and goes to the playoffs while Dallas fades late, misses the playoffs, and fires their coach.

The current composition of the entire Cowboy’s franchise hinges upon this game but Mike Shanahan is turning more crimson by the minute.  Redskin time!

Last Week:  13-3

Season Record against the spread: 133-107