Frey's NFL Picks: Championship Weekend Edition

The results of my prognostications last week harkened me back to the heady and foolish days of my youth.

I listened to my head when my gut was right and I listened to my gut when my head was spot on.

Given some of the dubious decisions I’ve made in my past, it is nothing short of a minor miracle that I’m not writing this blog from a dumpster in Idaho.

In the interest of bolstering my quickly fading self-esteem leading up to the picks this week, I have opted to travel the illusory but always rewarding path of self-delusion.

There was nothing wrong with my picks last week.  They were, in fact, totally correct both logically and intuitively.

It was the games themselves that were wrong.  Not my picks.   My picks were spot on.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Denver Broncos

Manning vs. Brady.  Nationwide vs. UGGs.  Papa John’s vs. Filming opponents’ practices, disconnecting headsets, and deflating footballs.

This is the narrative that is being forced down our gullets.

Listen, we know that these guys have played each other a bunch and that both are somewhat storied in their accomplishments.

The lasting historical memory may indeed be that of 2 aging generals facing each other in one final battle before the ravages of time lay waste to their respective empires.

But this game, this ONE game, is not about quarterbacks, cheating, or even UGGs:  It is about coaching.

Last week, Denver’s play-calling was about the only thing I was able to reliably predict. 

This type of “we’ll just line up, do what we do, and dare you to stop us” idiocy might have worked for the ’72 Dolphins or in the 4^th quarter against an exhausted Steelers team ravaged by injury, but it won’t work against the Patriots in the playoffs.

Our opponent is creative and experienced.  To those who remind me that we already beat these guys once, I refer them to the scene in Maverick where Mel Gibson’s character purposefully loses every hand for the first hour but then, when the stakes are highest, he seizes the pot.

Bill Belichick on the sidelines during New England's previous game against the Broncos.

NFL pundits across the nation said that New England had to establish the running game to slow down an impressive Chiefs pass rush to win the game.

  

The Chiefs obviously felt the  same and game planned accordingly because it was the safe bet.

What did the Patriots do?  They threw 14 straight passes and left their opponents wondering what the hell just happened.

Kubiak’s dogged insistence on trotting out a beloved (albeit chronically over-matched) Michael Schofield, coupled with an uninspired and unimaginative game plan that only seems to work in the 4^th quarter, does not cause my cup to floweth over with confidence.

I want a coach who goes for it on 4^th and 3 at mid-field.  

I want to see a hurry-up offense in the first quarter.  

I want an onside kick, a flea flicker, a reverse, a right tackle who doesn’t suck. 

We may see some of these things Sunday but the practitioners will not be wearing Orange.

This incarnation of the Broncos reminds me in many ways of the 1980’s Broncos teams under Dan Reeves.  Play not to lose for the first 55 minutes and then let ‘er rip.

Ahhh Yes.  I remember it well.  Those were some pretty damn good teams.

They were not champions.

It breaks my heart, but I must take the bad guys to win and to cover.

Belichick and Brady discuss offensive play selection during a timeout.

 Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Now THIS is the game with the compelling QB matchup.

The league’s best offense against the NFL’s most dynamic player should make for an extremely entertaining game.

I like some of the match-ups for the Cardinals here on both sides of the ball and some of the intangibles also play in their favor:

1)      They have an extremely fast defense which should serve to negate some of Cam Newton’s play-making abilities.

2)      The Cards have savvy, athletic receivers and an extremely accurate quarterback to get them the ball.

3)      Josh Norman can traipse around telling everyone what a stud he is but he’s about half as good as he thinks he is.  The other members of Carolina’s secondary are only about a quarter as good as Josh Norman thinks he is.

4)      It is the late game of the day and Arizona can stick to a normal schedule instead of having to wake up at 5 AM Pacific to prepare to play championship level football.

5)      Coaching?  Advantage Arizona.

Yeah and I prefer to be called "M'Lord" or "The Man from Nantucket."  The other coach just likes to be called "The Better Coach" 

Yep.  Lots of reasons to like the Cards.

I’m not buying it this time.  Carolina hasn’t lost at home in season and a half and is 16-1. 

On multiple occasions, I’ve hear Arizona fans start their sentence with, “..if Carolina plays like they did in the 2^nd half last week…”

If I based any opinion on the fact that a team with a 31 point half-time lead came out a little flat in the 3^rd quarter and let the defending NFC champs whittle down the lead a bit I’d also be an idiot.

Cardinal’s fans should start their sentences with, “…If the Panthers play like they did in the 1^st half…” or, more accurately, “..If we play anywhere near as shitty this week as we did last week at home against Green Bay…”.

Cam Newton always reminded me of that star player on a crappy little-league team that was a pompous, self-absorbed assface even in defeat.

Only a Patriots victory could possibly make me root for this guy.

Now he’s that same guy on a solid team with a big advantage in the trenches.

Sorry Cardinals.  I like you.  Really I do.  But, I think this is the year that good guys finish last.

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Divisional Playoffs

One might say, and not without cause, that I am the Cincinnati Bengals of prognosticators.

After another stellar regular season picking against the spread, the moment the playoffs arrived I valiantly threw up on my shoes and soiled my smallclothes.

Initially, when faced with the ignominy of my performance, I was forcibly reminded of the motivational quote I often espouse to my children when a faced with adversity:

But, as they say in the industry, the show must go on and a simple 5-2 record in the next 3 weeks gets me back in the black.

So in the time honored tradition of totally overreacting to a poor showing, I am going to allow my gut to have a voice in this week's installment as it seems listening exclusively to my brain did us all a disservice last week.

Let's pick some games.


Kansas City Cheifs  (+5)  @ New England Patriots

Brain Says:

"Never.  And I mean NEVER, bet against the New England Patriots when they have an extra week to figure out some way to cheat the system and are playing at home.  The nefarious Bostonians have playoff experience oozing out of every pour and are getting their top receiver back.  Brady vs. Alex Smith?  Really?  Don't overthink this.  The Chiefs are still coached by a man who would burn a timeout challenging the spot on a touchback.  Don't be stupid.  Take the champs at home.

Gut Says: 

"The Patriots are a hot mess.  They have lost 4 of their last 6 games, the head coach showed up for a press conference with a big black eye, and it appears their players have been doing PCP all week and wandering into police stations.  Brady has a bum ankle, Gronk is ailing, and their receiving corps is about as durable as Glass Joe from "Punch Out".  Can you not sense that the power of the dark side is waning?  The Chiefs have the "team of destiny" feel about them.  Ride the hot streak my friend.  Ride it!"

He'll be out of the game by half time.

Winner:  The Gut.  Chiefs Cover.


Green Bay Packers  @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Brain Says:

"Did you not see the last game these guys played?  Arizona is superior in every respect on both sides of the ball.  Sure Aaron Rodger looked like...well...Aaron Rodgers last week, but remember it was against a team with a shitty defense that padded their stats against a slew of abysmal NFC East opponents down the stretch.  Arizona already dominated the Packers in this very venue just a few weeks ago.  Nothing has changed except the Cardinals are now well-rested also. You don't even need a brain to make this pick.  The Cards Win.  Big."

I don't know why, but I laugh every time I see this shot from the last time these teams played.

Gut Says: 

"Hey, remember last week when all of the QB's with playoff experience won their games?  Aaron Rodgers is among the most elite and battle-hardened players in the league at the most important position.  Carson Palmer has an 0-2 post-season record.  The Pack has absolutely no pressure to do anything.  They are a wildcard team, playing on the road against a team that beat them like circus monkeys the last time out.  Remember how the Ravens beat the Broncos in 2013 after getting punked earlier in the year?  How about the Jets in 2010 over the Patriots just a couple weeks after getting wrecked 45-3?  You underestimate a loose team with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback at the helm at your peril.  Logic Shmogic.  Go Pack Go."

Winner: The Brain. Arizona blows them out.

Seattle Seahawks (+3)  @ Carolina Panthers

Brain Says:

"Teams do not go 15-1 by accident.  The Panthers are solid on both sides of the ball and have a dynamic, charismatic, play-making machine behind center.  They do not have the experience that the Seahawks enjoy but they've been to the post-season dance enough to know how to handle their business.  Seattle has got to be tired.  They have played almost an entire extra season of football over the past 3 years when factoring in the playoffs.  Only 2 teams in NFL history have ever gone to 3 or more straight Superbowls (Dolphins/Bills).  I know the 'Hawks Defense has only given up 1 TD in the past 6 road games but Carolina hung a ton of points on them already this year and hasn't lost at home in over 400 days. If you don't take the healthy, rested, 15-1 team at home I'm going to hemorrhage. "

Gut Says: 

"Seattle's game last week was exactly what the Doctor ordered.  They escaped a frigid, hard-hitting game with very little injury and the conditions made their offense so inept that there will be nothing of value to scout for the Panthers.  Something about this Seahawks team frightens me.  Even in their loss to the Rams, the defense was stout as hell and if the special teams hadn't pooped the bed they would have won in going away.  Other teams preach the "revenge game" as a motivating force but the Seahawks are filled with a bunch of pissed off guys who actually mean it.  Russell Wilson always comes up big when it counts and the offense is going to want to prove their quality after the fiasco last week.  Having Beast Mode back is going to set the tone early.  Seattle is oozing the 'vibe-o-kick-ass'. Don't deny that you feel it."

It can't hurt having this guy back.

Winner:  The Gut.  It'll be close, but the Seahawks will cover the 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (-7)

Brain Says:

"Let's be honest here.  Nearly everything is coming up Denver this week.  They are at home, they have 4 starters back in the lineup that were missing when these 2 teams last played, and their opponent is now the one riddled with injury.  Pittsburgh's top play-maker is out and they are down to their 3rd string running back.  Rothlesberger is so hurt that this may be the first time since 2010 that Peyton Manning has been the QB with the better arm going into a game.  Denver's secondary is fast and reasonably healthy finally.  Rag-armed QB's without their best weapons do not fare well in the mile-high city.  Moreover, the defense is pissed-off after getting torched earlier by the Steelers and should come out flying.  Toss in the fact that Kubiak finally got his head out of his ass and benched Schofield and the Broncos are almost certain to win if they protect the football."

Gut Says: 

"Don't do it Frey.  Don't you dare pick Denver to win this game.  Have you not suffered enough of the jinx throughout the years to know better?  This feels just like 2006 all over again.  It's too perfect. In 2 weeks we go from maybe missing the playoffs to getting the first seed.  The worst matchup for us is coming into town on the heels of a bloodbath and is riddled by injury at some very important positions.  Our next opponent is either a banged up Patriots team that can't win in Denver unless Tim Tebow is playing or a Chiefs team coached by the ever buffonish Andy Reid.  The Broncos have ridden a wave of good fortune all season.  Can you not sense the catastrophic letdown?  Remember also that Gary Kuboak is unable to defeat any opponent in the post-season except for the laughably inept and self-imploding Bengals.  Don't add the poison of your jinx to this delicate mix.  Don't do it you bastard!"

Winner: The Brain. And may God have mercy on my soul.

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Wild Card Edition

And so, my friends, begins my favorite time of the year.

An entire season of blood, sweat, toil, and tears for 12 franchises now culminates in this most excellent of events.  The NFL Playoffs.

Justly, the pitiful dreams and ambitions of lesser cities and their idiot fans lie crushed like bugs, tossed into the great celestial trash heap like so many empty vodka bottles from a Cleveland Browns QB's Wednesday night bender.

So, in honor of the season, I would like to pass on a special message to the 20 cities who, yet again, sit staring longingly at the TV while my beloved Broncos and other competent teams take the field in January.

You suck.  All of you.

Let's pick some games.


Kansas City Cheifs  @ Houston Texans (+3½)

While the Chefs have been garnering most of the press due to their 10 game winning streak against 8 dog poop teams, an injured Ben Rothlesberger, and the mutilated carcass of Peyton Manning, the Texans have quietly notched up many wins of their own behind the best defense in the NFL over the final 5 weeks of the season.

Both teams are hot, neither team has much playoff experience, and both are pretty healthy.

The difference in this game is that JJ Watt took has cast off last week and had 3 sacks.

Houston is at home, the best defensive force in the NFL is finally healthy, and when last  checked, Andy Reid still coaches the Chefs.

This guy > Alex Smith

They may not win the game, but I like the Texans to cover.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½)  @ Cincinnati Bengals

Ben Rothlesberger:

Regular Season Victories: 114
Playoff Victories: 15
Super Bowl Rings: 2

A.J. McCarran:

Regular Season Victories: 2
Playoff Victories: Never Been
Insanely Hot Wife: 1

If McCarran loses, he will have to trudge home to this.  I expect 3 picks in the first half.

If this were a calendar shoot, I'm taking the Bengals. 

Since it's football, give me the team with experience.


Seattle Seahawks (-3½)  @ Minnesota Vikings

The weather guys tell me that the game temperature will likely drop to -23 when the windchill is factored in.

Now on its face, one would think this a significant advantage to the Vikings.

That's crap and here's why.

Russell Wilson was born in Ohio and played College Football in frigid Wisconsin.

Teddy Bridgewater was born in Miami and played his College Ball in Louisville where it once dropped to like 50 degrees.

Now who do you think is gonna handle this weather better?

Skip the beach-bum and take the 'Hawks.


Green Bay Packers  @ Washington Redskins (Pick)

Somewhere, in the land where little red-faced men open their own steakhouses, Mike Shanahan sees DeAngelo Hall and Kirk Cousin kicking ass and flips Daniel Snyder a bird so violently that he pulls a muscle in his neck.

I mention it often, but this may be one of those seminal moments of two ships passing in the night.

But then again, Daniel Snyder still owns the Redskins so its probably just a blip in the radar.

The Redskins' logo until Dan Snyder sells the team to someone who isn't a wang.

Still, ride the blip my friends.

Picking Cousins over Rodgers is probably stupid, but Green Bay looks like the dumpster fire now, not the 'Skins.

Week 17 Record:  2-2

Regular Season Record: 39-27-2

Trap Game Record: 10-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 17

One of the things that makes NFL football the greatest sport on the planet (aside from the fact that it confounds foreigners) is the lovely dichotomy of certainty and randomness that both soothes and excites the senses each season.

It is the yin and the yang.  

It is the sweet and the sour.

It is exactly what we need to bring balance and purpose to life in a way that is real and observable.

We enjoy the peace of knowing that some things will never change.

God hates Cleveland and they will suck.

New England will, through a combination of competence and egregious cheating, be good.

Buffalo will under-perform no matter the coach.

Phillip Rivers will be a wang.

Saint Louis will play just well enough to NOT fire Jeff Fisher.

Conversely, unlike other major sports where, more often than not, only 3 or 4 teams can be seriously considered as legitimate contenders, everyone has a chance to do something.

Did anyone really expect that the Arizona Cardinals would go 14-2?

Looking at the preseason projections, not a single analyst from ESPN or CBS picked the Redskins to win the NFL East.  Your NFC East champion?  You got!  The Washington Dumpsterfires.

I was certain that the 'Skins would be terrible this year.  By Odin I love the NFL!

Peyton Manning tears his planter fascia and then looks like Mr. Burns from the Simpsons.  Drew Brees has the same injury and throws for 412 yards and 3 TD's.  I certainly didn't expect that development.

As the final games of the regular season commence, it seems only fitting that my experiment regarding trap games would be inconclusive.  This is the NFL.  Nothing is certain.  Except that God hates Cleveland.


New England Patriots (-8)  @ Miami Dolphins

You know that when the wives of Dolphins players are tweeting about how much Ryan Tennehill sucks you are in trouble.

You know that when the organization and other players do not come out vociferously in support of their starting QB that you are in deep #$%&.

The Dolphins are a diaper fire, the Patriots need this game to secure home field throughout the playoffs, and the ONLY thing Miami can now do to screw themselves worse is to win and mess up their draft position.

Take the cheating bastards to win and cover on the road.

The Dolphins await the opening kickoff in a game the Patriots desperately need.

Oakland Raiders (+7)  @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is rolling no doubt but the nature of their victories and the quality of their opposition have been less than stellar.

The Raiders are not shamefully bad for the first time since Al Gore invented the internet and would really like to end the season on the right note.

The Chefs still need this game to win this division with a Broncos loss and to avoid the possibility of playing in Cincinnati next week.

They'll be playing so uptight that you couldn't squeeze a greased BB up their butts.

They may win, but it will be close.


Washington Redskins  @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The Redskins have locked up their playoff seeding and this game is totally meaningless to them.

The Cowboys could really benefit from a loss this week in terms of securing an improved draft position.

So we have a team that needs to lose vs. a team that doesn't care if it wins and will likely play scrubs to avoid injury.

I just don't think the mummy of Ramses II is smart enough to order a home defeat to a hated rival.

Regardless, anyone who watches this game is an idiot.


Jacksonville Jaguars  @ Houston Texans (-3)

And so, good friends, we come to the trap game of the year.

While statistically it is unlikely that the Colts can unseat the Texans as division champion even with a Houston loss, this game is important to the men down south for a number of reasons.

1) Their QB is back for the first time in 2 weeks and needs a good performance to give confidence to his team leading into a probably 1st round matchup with a red-hot Chiefs team.

2)  A home loss to a mediocre opponent the week before the playoffs is OK for perennial playoff teams like New England, Denver, or Seattle.  Houston can't be pulling that crap.  the are Houston.

3) Going into the playoffs 8-8 just looks stupid.  Don't do it.

It seems pretty easy on paper right?

Week 16 Record:  1-2-1

Season Record: 37-25-2

Trap Game Record: 9-7