When I rated Andrea 2nd to last in the power rankings last week and said that she “needs to make a move….Now..” I didn’t mean that she should make a move on Eddie.
My respect for Andrea’s game, in retrospect, has taken a major dive given how she, like Malcolm, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by displaying levels of dumb-assery that I did not believe she possessed.
Incredibly, Andrea plotted, schemed, strategized, and spoke loudly about blindsiding her own friends for 12 weeks without repercussion. Then, with a place in the final 5 imminent, she alienates her entire alliance by rushing to the defense of Dipshit Eddie, even suggesting that Dawn be voted out to Dawn’s primary ally (Cochran)!
Hell, it would have been less damaging if she had actually told Dawn that she wanted to vote off Dawn…..
Her alliance already suspected her of duplicity due to her fawning over Eddie. If she was going to hitch her wagon to a dimwitted simian, she should have done it back when she decided to vote out Michael when they would have the numbers.
Andrea needlessly over-played her hand last episode and (as expected) clung to her weird affinity for Eddie, securing herself a place in Survivor obscurity.
On the bright side, we have another whole week of Eddie! Who knows what mind-numbingly stupid or inexplicable ploy he still has up his sleeve?
Perhaps he will challenge Cochran to a game of chess for individual immunity or pit himself against Dawn in a crying contest for a 24 ounce porterhouse?
I am aquiver with anticipation.
In today’s installment, I am going to give my recipe for victory for each of the remaining players in addition to my normal observations.
Let us look to the rankings:
1) Cochran
It is not every day you can observe another human being’s transformation with the benefit of cameras and commentary.
With his shiftiness, malevolence, and nerdy pomposity, it seems clear that Cochran as become the very epitome of the Harvard Lawyer that he aspires to become.
All over the world, asshole lawyers are celebrating his dominance and, so to, will I.
Despite the obvious shortcomings when it comes to his ultimate longevity, I am rating Cochran #1 this week for the following reasons:
1) Symbolism is very important to my people and I feel as though we must all honor a virtuoso performance by the man. I can think of no higher honor than having Frey place you at the top of his weekly power rankings.
2) The Editors released their “Red Herring” preview with Cochran expressing unease at the thought that he may be out. Nothing makes him safer this week than the fact that the crew of Survivor actually wants us to think he is in danger.
3) He never touched Dawn’s possessed lower teeth.
Cochran’s best bet going forward is to rally the troops against Eddie and then reform an Alliance of 3 (one of which must be Erik lest he win out in the immunity challenges) to get him to the final tribal council.
Brenda and Dawn know that Cochran will almost certainly win the million if he makes it to the end and will be gunning for him if not this week then next so, as a result, they are not viable cohorts.
If Cochran would just wink at Erik 3 or 4 times a day and point to a name on the tribal banner, this should suffice to plant an idea in his head that cannot be purged with reason or logic.
Sherri still has the “I’m just happy to be here” vibe going and may be desperate enough to hop on board for a top 3 finish.
Cochran-Erik-Sherri is a guaranteed win but any combination should work out just fine for this guy. He just needs to get to the end by any means necessary.
2) Dawn
Anyone who can go 2 days without degenerating into violent weeping fits demands respect.
Well done Dawn! Well done.
I think Cochran waits one more week to make his big move and, until that time, he will almost certainly steer people toward Eddie to purge himself of suspicion.
There is simply no reason to get rid of Dawn (not physically threatening/has betrayed many jurors/cries all the time) until next week so she should be safe for now.
On a personal note, I did want to express my displeasure with how quickly she was willing to turn on Brenda after retainer-gate. If she has an ounce of humanity in her soul, she should be fighting as hard for the woman who kept her in the game as she does for herself. However, integrity does not win Dawn the coin. The below formula does:
Dawn cannot beat Cochran in the final vote and is also unlikely to defeat Brenda.
Anyone who gives even a hint of wanting to take Eddie to the finals at this time is going to get mauled by the rest of the tribe so he is not an option.
Her only hope for victory rests with an Erik-Sherri-Dawn triumvirate.
3) Erik
Jumping off for donuts notwithstanding, Erik is still the primary physical force remaining on the island.
The problems facing Erik are the antithesis of those facing Cochran.
He has the physical tools to make it to the final 3 without assistance and everyone on the island (with the possible exception of Eddie) thinks they can beat him in front of the jury.
If Erik wins immunity this week, he is almost a shoe-in to make it to the final vote. But he must win immunity or the remaining islanders will likely target him because:
a) He is by far the most physically talented remaining player
b) It gives everyone else a free pass to keep Eddie around without repercussion, significantly increasing their odds to win a million bucks
Erik has but 1 path to final victory.
He must win immunity, convince Sherri and Eddie that he wants them in the final 3 with him, and the use the implied threat of permanent personal immunity to secure 1 more vote to eliminate one of his remaining alliance members.
Anything other than a Sherri-Eddie-Erik final 3 and our favorite Jim Morrison clone is playing for the Frenchman’s prize.
4) Sherri
It kills me to move such a weak player up the rankings but Sherri is an extremely attractive final 3 partner for a number of reasons:
1) She sucks
2) See #1
As it stands, people will want to wipe out Eddie as a final show of solidarity and then, as a matter of mathematics, must begin turning on each other as the final 3 approaches. I don’t see Sherri beating anyone at tribal council regardless of the combination.
If I was forced to pick a “hail-Mary” final 3 for Sherri it would be Eddie-Sherri-Dawn. There is the possibility that Dawns love of lying to people and then knifing them may get a few jurors pissed off enough to refuse to give her the million but I doubt it.
On the bright side for Sherri, I finally found someone I think she can beat at challenges:
5) Brenda
Erik’s continued presence on the island is a serious threat to Brenda’s survivability.
She is not strong enough to be the odds on favorite to win individual immunity in any given challenge but is dangerous enough to the others to warrant “the fear vote” should Erik win out.
Moreover, since only Cochran beats her at tribal council, everyone else is going to be gunning for her once the final 5 are established.
Brenda must win immunity on week 5 and then target Erik. If Erik wins immunity week 5, she must convince the others to turn on Cochran or she’s gone.
The safe play for now is to feign loyalty and beat the Eddie drum as loudly as possible and to make Dawn feel so bad about ever targeting you because of what you did for her that you have a surprise ally at the final 4-5.
Brenda has a great chance of winning if she gets to the end but has the hardest path to get there. Plus, she held the “bottom teeth of evil” in her hands. Being possessed by depressed demons seldom ends well.
Any ending combination sans Cochran will almost certainly end in victory. However, a Brenda-Dawn-Sherri final 3 is the easiest path to riches.
6) Eddie
<sigh>
I no longer even know what to say about this guy. I have never, in 26 seasons, seen a more horribly played game of Survivor.
The fact that both the dumbest player (Eddie) and the weakest player (Sherri) are still playing this far into the season has got Charles Darwin doing barrel rolls in his grave.
If you could combine Sherri’s physical game with Eddie’s mental one into a single player, the result would look something like this:
There is no conceivable scenario where Eddie wins the million dollars unless the remaining tribe members are assaulted by a troop of monkeys on the way to the final tribal council and carried off screaming into the jungle.
Andrea—Ranked #6 out of 7 when voted out week 12.
Reynold—Ranked #8 out of 8 when voted out week 12.
Malcolm—Ranked #8 out of 9 when voted out week 11.
Phillip—Ranked #4 out of 10 when voted out week 10.
Michael—Ranked #9 out of 11 when voted out week 9.
Corinne—Ranked #5 out of 12 when voted out week 8.
Julia—Ranked #13 out of 13 when voted out week 7
Matt—Ranked #10 of 14 when voted out in week 6.
Brandon—Ranked #15 out of 15 when voted out week 5
Laurie—Ranked #12 out of 16 when voted out week 4
Shamar—Ranked #17 out 17 when he left the game
Hope—Ranked #17 of 18 when voted out week 3
Allie—Rated “Poor” when voted out week 2
Francesca—rated “Poor” when voted out week 1
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