I don’t quite know how to express my feelings in regards to
this season of Survivor.
I mean, I liked the extra strategic element of the whole “loved
one” thing.
It was nice to see some reasonably normal people compete for
the coin.
Every season I lament the fact that the producers of Survivor seem more interested in
selecting people who will drum up some drama than finding compelling or
intelligent individuals with normal jobs or spouses who are not famous.
This most recent band of castaways seemed to be a bit less
contrived but it just didn’t seem to work out the way I had hoped.
In the mid-late game, nobody really seized the stage and
became someone to either root for or despise.
Tyson is clever.
Hayden is, well, clever. Monica
and Laura M, while decidedly un-clever,
are great in challenges. Ciera is kind
of sneaky I guess. Gervase rotates
between quiet wisdom and foolish yammering.
Tina, while pretty spry for a woman of 60, reeks of mediocrity in every
aspect of the game.
There’s no Yul (social genius) or Ozzy (challenge God) or
Russell (sneaky bastard) or Cochran (level-headed master of timing) to either
admire or hold in contempt. The
remaining players have some qualities in various quantities but nobody who
really jumps out as dominant or deserving.
This season was more like a middleweight fight between
unranked and unknown opponents than an epic battle of giants.
Someone is going to win this season, but I doubt their game
will ever be considered the stuff of legends.
Because someone has to win, I am duty bound to predict who
it will be and why.
Group #1: The People with no
Chance
Tina—
With her unconscionably boring daughter out of the game,
someone has to assume the mantle of “non-entity”. Tina made no moves of any import and did very
little to influence the game.
Since Katie was the only person left on the island aside
from Ciera who she could beat in a challenge, her odds of getting back to the game
are almost nil. Even if she does, nobody
is going to give her another million bucks.
Monica—
Like most sinewy 90-pound women, Monica did a pretty good
job at challenges geared toward sinewy 90-pound women.
While she can claim to have acquitted herself valiantly in challenges,
the truth of the matter is that Monica will have had to violate way too many
people in order to make it to the end.
Plus, there are few people on the journey who will feel
compelled to give the millionaire wife of a loudmouth ex-football player
another million bucks
If she goes to the final 3 with anyone named Tyson, Hayden,
or Gervase, she can’t hope to beat them.
If she somehow manages to get Ciera and Laura/Tina with her to the end, she
will have been responsible for at least 6 people’s ousters.
Betraying your friends to save your own hide is not the
ticket to victory.
Group #2: These guys can win
if everything goes perfectly
Ciera—
Ciera’s game is one of half-measures and lost
opportunities. She made a couple big
moves (voting off her mom and drawing rocks) but did so only after being badgered
by smarter players (Hayden/Tyson).
People don’t hate her, and might (on some levels) respect
the fact that she was smart enough to follow simple instructions but she can’t
really own any of the major plays.
If she can get to the end with Monica, Tina, or Laura M she
might be able to pull off a split decision but any other combination and she’s
toast
Laura M.—
In the NFL Hall of Fame, there are a number of players
enshrined due almost entirely to their longevity.
Emmit Smith, for example, played forever and holds the
rushing record due almost solely due to his ability to be competent for a very
large stretch of time.
However, I don’t think anyone is going to say that Emmitt
Smith is better than Barry Sanders or Erik Dickerson. He just lasted forever.
And that, my friends, is Laura M. She is a very competent challenge performer
who has been able to survive week after week.
She’s worthy of consideration, but nobody really thinks she’s
the best player.
Group #3: The Contenders:
Gervase--
Stronger than anyone sneakier and sneakier than anyone
stronger. Gervase has played a very
balanced game. He has a better chance of
making it to the end than Tyson because people are less frightened of his end
game and a better chance than Hayden due to the fact that he’s not already on Redemption Island .
He’ll beat anyone not named Tsyon or Hayden and has a better
chance of getting t the finals than either of those guys. As always, he’s in a pretty good place if he
can keep his yap shut.
Tyson—
If being in constant control is worthy of victory, Tyson
pulls home the million if he makes it to the end.
For nearly the entire game, he was calling the shots for the
dominant alliance and also showed his tenacity by tracking down the immunity
idol twice.
He lacked Cochran’s timing brilliance and Boston Rob’s
political ability to stay under the radar but he played the most consistent
game.
Hayden—
This guy was the MacGyver of the island.
He took an impossible position and, with no tools, almost singlehandedly
turned the game around for 3 people.
Hayden took the biggest risks and then talked other people
into taking huge risks on his behalf.
He’s likable, funny, doesn’t Russel feathers. If he can get out of Redemption Island
and in front of a jury, he’ll be a force.
The Winner:
Tyson—
Many things can happen but it is always a good idea to pick
the winner based upon their prospects of victory at the final tribal council.
Nobody can beat him in the end and he doesn’t need to defeat
the invincible Laura M. at Redemption to get back in the game.
He’s not the best of the Survivor champs, but he’s superior
to the rest of the Shmendricks from this season.
I’ll have my end of the season conclusions next week. Be well my friends!