Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Final Episode Edition

I don’t quite know how to express my feelings in regards to this season of Survivor.

I mean, I liked the extra strategic element of the whole “loved one” thing.

It was nice to see some reasonably normal people compete for the coin.

Colton got wiped out early and, mercifully, we did not need to have our TV screens polluted with this arsehole for more than a couple weeks.

Every season I lament the fact that the producers of Survivor seem more interested in selecting people who will drum up some drama than finding compelling or intelligent individuals with normal jobs or spouses who are not famous.

This most recent band of castaways seemed to be a bit less contrived but it just didn’t seem to work out the way I had hoped.

In the mid-late game, nobody really seized the stage and became someone to either root for or despise.

Tyson is clever.  Hayden is, well, clever.  Monica and Laura M, while decidedly un-clever, are great in challenges.  Ciera is kind of sneaky I guess.  Gervase rotates between quiet wisdom and foolish yammering.  Tina, while pretty spry for a woman of 60, reeks of mediocrity in every aspect of the game.

There’s no Yul (social genius) or Ozzy (challenge God) or Russell (sneaky bastard) or Cochran (level-headed master of timing) to either admire or hold in contempt.  The remaining players have some qualities in various quantities but nobody who really jumps out as dominant or deserving.

This season was more like a middleweight fight between unranked and unknown opponents than an epic battle of giants.

Someone is going to win this season, but I doubt their game will ever be considered the stuff of legends.

Because someone has to win, I am duty bound to predict who it will be and why.

 

Group #1:  The People with no Chance

Tina—

With her unconscionably boring daughter out of the game, someone has to assume the mantle of “non-entity”.  Tina made no moves of any import and did very little to influence the game. 

Since Katie was the only person left on the island aside from Ciera who she could beat in a challenge, her odds of getting back to the game are almost nil.  Even if she does, nobody is going to give her another million bucks.

Monica—

Like most sinewy 90-pound women, Monica did a pretty good job at challenges geared toward sinewy 90-pound women. 

While she can claim to have acquitted herself valiantly in challenges, the truth of the matter is that Monica will have had to violate way too many people in order to make it to the end. 

Plus, there are few people on the journey who will feel compelled to give the millionaire wife of a loudmouth ex-football player another million bucks

If she goes to the final 3 with anyone named Tyson, Hayden, or Gervase, she can’t hope to beat them.  If she somehow manages to get Ciera and Laura/Tina with her to the end, she will have been responsible for at least 6 people’s ousters.

Betraying your friends to save your own hide is not the ticket to victory.

 

Group #2:  These guys can win if everything goes perfectly

Ciera—

Ciera’s game is one of half-measures and lost opportunities.  She made a couple big moves (voting off her mom and drawing rocks) but did so only after being badgered by smarter players (Hayden/Tyson).

People don’t hate her, and might (on some levels) respect the fact that she was smart enough to follow simple instructions but she can’t really own any of the major plays.

If she can get to the end with Monica, Tina, or Laura M she might be able to pull off a split decision but any other combination and she’s toast

Laura M.—

In the NFL Hall of Fame, there are a number of players enshrined due almost entirely to their longevity.

Emmit Smith, for example, played forever and holds the rushing record due almost solely due to his ability to be competent for a very large stretch of time.

However, I don’t think anyone is going to say that Emmitt Smith is better than Barry Sanders or Erik Dickerson.  He just lasted forever.

And that, my friends, is Laura M.  She is a very competent challenge performer who has been able to survive week after week.

She’s worthy of consideration, but nobody really thinks she’s the best player.

Group #3:  The Contenders:

Gervase--

 

Stronger than anyone sneakier and sneakier than anyone stronger.  Gervase has played a very balanced game.  He has a better chance of making it to the end than Tyson because people are less frightened of his end game and a better chance than Hayden due to the fact that he’s not already on Redemption Island.

He’ll beat anyone not named Tsyon or Hayden and has a better chance of getting t the finals than either of those guys.  As always, he’s in a pretty good place if he can keep his yap shut.

Tyson—

 

If being in constant control is worthy of victory, Tyson pulls home the million if he makes it to the end.

For nearly the entire game, he was calling the shots for the dominant alliance and also showed his tenacity by tracking down the immunity idol twice.

He lacked Cochran’s timing brilliance and Boston Rob’s political ability to stay under the radar but he played the most consistent game.

 

Hayden—

This guy was the MacGyver  of the island.  He took an impossible position and, with no tools, almost singlehandedly turned the game around for 3 people.

Hayden took the biggest risks and then talked other people into taking huge risks on his behalf. 

He’s likable, funny, doesn’t Russel feathers.  If he can get out of Redemption Island and in front of a jury, he’ll be a force.

 

The Winner:

 

Tyson—

Many things can happen but it is always a good idea to pick the winner based upon their prospects of victory at the final tribal council.

Nobody can beat him in the end and he doesn’t need to defeat the invincible Laura M. at Redemption to get back in the game.

He’s not the best of the Survivor champs, but he’s superior to the rest of the Shmendricks from this season.

I’ll have my end of the season conclusions next week.  Be well my friends!