Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 3

I would like to say that I didn’t see that Baltimore loss to the Raiders coming but then I’d have to go back and edit my last article where I posted that game as my trap of the week.

Well played Vegas.  Well played.

Still, I’ll take a 3-1 week against the spread any day.  

You know who else would take 3-1?  The Browns.  You know who won’t see it this year or any other until they get their head out of their butts?  The Browns.

Week 3 unscheduled Rant:  Cleveland is Stupid.

God hates Cleveland and deservedly so.

Everybody knows this.

Still, watching the Browns organization take the first glimmer of hope that their fans have had since the Eisenhower administration and stomp it out like an errand cinder from a big, inept, campfire is enough to make even the almighty cringe just a little bit.

Illusory as the hope in Manziel may be in the long run, he just turned in an electric performance in leading his team to a resounding home victory that lifted the folks of Cleveland from deep shame to a level resembling slightly less than deep shame.

So what does the leadership do? 

That’s right!  Bench him and put in a guy who is painful to watch with absolutely no upside.

I can hear them in the boardroom now.  “If we go with our #1 draft choice who just turned in the best QB performance for our franchise in 5 years, we may end up going 4-12 instead of a much more boring 4-12 if we go with the career backup.”

Yep.  That’s why they call you the Browns.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-3 ½)

How is it, you may ask, that I can so confidently pile back on Jameis Winston after his competent performance from last week?

The answer is quite simple.  He does really stupid things.  Often.

Now take “Winston does really stupid things” and combine it with “J.J. Watt in your face every play” and you have a recipe for baboonery on a monumental scale.

All 245 Tampa fans are said to be burning a candle for their young QB

17 interceptions is not out of the question this week.

The fact that they don’t even have a QB notwithstanding, Houston gets off the schnide this week and covers. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6)

Is Carson Palmer hurt yet? 

No?

Then they are going to kill the 9ers.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-1 ½)  

Just like my Buffalo pick from week 1, people are luke-warm to my selection of the Ravens. 

If ever a must-win game there was, this is it for the ravens who, incidentally, are almost undefeatable at home (Only Green Bay and New England have better home records over the last 5 years).

The Bengals have always expected to drop this game and can actually afford to.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (-1)

Which brings us to the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week. 

There are so many reasons to bet against Philly here that my laptop battery would never survive the listing effort.  Here are just a few of the more important considerations:

1.      Philadelphia’s multi-million dollar running back only barely has more rushing yards this season than I do.

2.      Chip Kelly’s “Fire everyone who doesn’t suck” plan is really starting to come together.

Head Coach Chip Kelly pitches his plan to the good people of Philadelphia.

3.      Their offensive ineptitude came against defense much crappier than the Jets.

As always, I am falling right into this trap

Last Week:  3-1

Season Record:  7-1

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 2

That’s right!  4-0!

Normally, I would take this opportunity to gloat about my magnificent prognostication prowess.

However, given the fact that a written record exists within this blog of last year’s….unpleasantness….I will just mention that I kick copious amounts of butts, add a short Broncos rant, and move on to this week’s brilliance.

Unrelated Rant (1^st of the season):

It is painfully clear that Manning does not like the Kubiak offense and is less than enthusiastic when running it.

It is equally clear that Kubiak does not like the no-huddle offense that made the Broncos historically good the last 2 ½ years (Before Peyton got hurt).

Aside from a couple 2 minute drills and some situation-based desperation, what we have seen is some bastardized version of 1 offensive scheme or the other.  If you remove the no-huddle out of the Manning offense you destroy what makes it great.  

It’s like ordering salsa without any hot peppers in it and then bitching about it being too bland.

I am reminded of the words of Mr. Miyagi:

“Walk Road hmmmm?  Walk right-side.  Safe.  Walk left-side.  Safe.  Walk middle, sooner or later <squish>.  Just like grape.”

Running an NFL offense is much the same.  Either you Manning’s Offense do “Yes” or you Manning’s Offense do “No”but if you Manning’s Offense do “Guess so” sooner or later <squish> get a squish just like grape.

There is nothing in the NFL rule book that says you need your offense to suck in order to have a good defense.  Score a ton of points and then blow up the other team.  Whatever Denver decides to do regarding their weekly game plan, they need to do it right.  No more half-assery.

I was 4-0 last week so I know these things.

Now to the picks!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 ½) @ New Orleans Saints  

It amazes me that a whole slew of NFL experts watched Jameis Winston enjoy a slew of off-season incidents and throw like 100 interceptions in college when playing against a bunch of accountants and social workers but simply assumed he wouldn’t do stupid crap against some of the best athletes on the planet.

Sorry.  Couldn't help myself.

Still, 10 ½ is a ton of points in this league and is certainly more than I would ever give to a team that just got lambasted the previous week by a team in Arizona that looks more like a M*A*S*H unit than a serious contender.

I don’t like the Bucs to win this one, but I think they’ll at least pull off a backdoor cover.

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

Ahhhh the gamesmanship!  Bill O’Brien (Texan’s head coach) has been very coy regarding the Texans’ starting QB this week.

The trouble is that no opposing coaching staff is going to lay awake sweating at night wondering if you are going to be starting Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer.

Just plan for the opposing QB to suck and then go about your business.

Unless they put J.J. Watt behind center, there is really nothing to be concerned about.

Panthers win this one at home and don’t worry about the 3 points.

San Diego @ Cincinnati (-3)

Every now and again I just get a feeling that a certain team is ripe for a letdown.

Last week, the Chargers made a bunch of stupid mistakes but were able to come back and secure a victory against the worst road team on the planet.  Seeing them jump around like a bunch of maroons after the game concluded suggests to me that they are feeling pretty good about themselves.

Also, Phillip Rivers is a wang.

I can't stand this guy.

I am not entire sure what the Bengals are about given that they played a miserable Oakland team last week and were ahead 33-0 before the raiders got anywhere near the end zone but they will be up for their home opener.

Bengals cover here.

Baltimore Raven (+6) @ Oakland Raiders

The Admiral Akbar game of the week.

This one seems even more trappy than last week’s pick.

Baltimore could play only 9 guys on defense, do tequila shots before every offensive possession, make insensitive comments to the officiating crew about their families and/or ethnicity and still beat the $#@& out of Oakland.

Again, the good folks in Vegas didn’t get rich by being stupid with their point spreads, but this looks too easy on paper.

I am jumping into the trap with both feet on this one.

Last Week:  4-0

Season Record:  4-0

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Season Premier

I know what you have all been thinking.

How the hell am I supposed to make any money betting on football this year when I don’t have Frey’s picks in hand so I can bet the opposite.

Well, here you go you bunch of smart-asses.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets -2.5  

As a general rule, I eschew picking teams whose starting quarterback got punched in the face by a teammate and is going to miss 6 weeks.

Then again, Geno Smith is seldom the QB who got punched and those teams are not usually playing the Browns.

I like the improved Jets ‘D’ to put the clamps down on whatever flotsam Cleveland brings to the table this week.

Cleveland’s bold new uniforms notwithstanding, take New York to cover in a low scoring game.

Yep.  These guys mean business.  You don't make a change like this otherwise.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 @ Washington Redskins

A lot of hullabaloo has been made about the Redskin’s and their offensive team name and mascot.

Many alternatives have been floated out there but nothing really stuck a chord with either the management or the viewing public.

Having watched these guys for the last couple months, I have come up with a name that personifies everything these guys stand for and can finally put this whole messy business to rest.  

They should call themselves: 

The Washington DumpsterFires

You are welcome.

Get behind this logo.  It will be around awhile.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills +3

There is not a person among us who doesn’t make foolish decisions….repeatedly in some cases.

Do you continue to smoke cigarettes even though you cough up black stuff when walking down the hall to the bathroom?  It happens.

Still drinking tequila even after the unpleasantness of 1990?  You are not alone here.

Keep going back to your ex despite the fact that he/she is more likely to poison or rob you then to provide even a sliver of happiness?  It’s not an exclusive club by any means.

Eating at Taco House…again…even though it gives you the angry-arse every time?  I hear ya comrade.

My avatar of flawed judgment is the Buffalo Bills.

It has become tradition for me to get hosed by these losers.  Repeatedly.

But hear me out this time.  There are 4 things the Bills have going for them this week:

1)      They really do have a stout defense.

2)      Even when totally crappy, they usually show up big for home openers.

3)      Rex Ryan excels at taking rubbish teams and making them mediocre.

4)      Buffalo usually doesn’t remember that they are the Bills and they suck until week 4 or 5.

Indianapolis is overhyped right now and is ripe for the upset and/or backdoor cover.

Don’t #$%& me again Buffalo.  I mean it.

Detroit Lions @ San Diego Chargers -3

And so we come to my “Admiral Akbar Pick of the Week.”

What am I missing here?

·        Detroit lost their best defensive player.

·        The Lions are the worst road team in the NFL over the last decade.

·        The Chargers are, for lack of a better term, not shitty.

I don’t foresee a blowout by any means but 3 points seems pretty light for a home opener against a team that hasn’t won a game west of the Mississippi since they beat an abysmal Oakland team by 1point in 2011.

Take Phyllis Rivers and the Chargers to cover in front of the usual apathetic home crowd.

Record: 0-0

Survivor 30: Worlds Apart: Series Finale

Watching this season of Survivor is like reading George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Fire and Ice series.

At the outset, it burns brilliantly. 

The concept works on nearly all levels.  The cast of characters are unique and compelling in their behaviors and histories.

It is impossible to pick a favorite.  Yesterday’s villain is tomorrow’s hero.

Geniuses morphed into dipshits.  Good people did terrible things.  The vanquished became the victors.

Innuendo, half-truths, and boldfaced lies ripped apart alliances and forged friendships among unlikely players.

And then, when the smoke cleared and we took stock of the field, we suffered a blindside of our own:

Where the $#@& did everyone go?

What happened to dreamy Joe?  

Or Jenn the hippy chick that  every 30 year old man wishes was his beer buddy?

Where did that Tyler guy who would always squint thoughtfully at even the most innocuous occurrences disappear to?

How about Shirin the bottomless Google exec who makes people hate her for a still indeterminate reason?

Even Hali the "Surfing is like my 7th greatest passion in life" chick would have been a welcome addition to the final 5.

Just as it happened in A Game of Thrones, the vast bulk of compelling or likable characters have been axed.

If Mike wins, I consider this season a success.

If Carolyn wins, I would give this season a resounding "meh."

If anyone else wins, I just wasted 4 months of my life and I'll be super pissed.

Let's talk turkey:

Sierra

Interesting Fact:

It seems that Sierra is a contestant in Survivor 30:  Worlds Apart

Jurors react to meeting Sierra for the first time

Why she will win:

• She has done absolutely nothing, and I mean NOTHING, to have pissed anybody off.  If she sits with Rodney and Will at the end, All red-blooded Americans will be the big loser but Sierra will have a shot.
• We haven't had "victory by bitter jury" for like 4 years.  the gambler's fallacy says now's the time.

Why she will lose:

• Please refer to the first bullet point under the sub-heading "Why she will win."
• I can't believe I am actually writing this, but knowing Will as I do and after seeing Rodney throw his grappling hook straight down into the dirt like 600 times, Sierra may be viewed as a legitimate challenge threat and may get wiped early.
• If either Mike or Carolyn make it to the end, she may not even get a question from the jury much less a vote.

Will

Interesting Fact:

Will once passed out from overexertion while playing a game of "lay down on this nice cushy bed for awhile."

Why he will win:

• Will cannot win Survivor.  
• When Probst said last week that "Anyone can win this game." he forgot to add, "except for Will."

The high water mark of Will's athleticismn

Why he will not win:

• I'd get carpal tunnel long before I could address a fraction of the reasons that Will cannot win.  In fact, just thinking about the attempt has made me hit the bottle.

Mike

Interesting Fact:

Mike built the bottom 1/6 of Khufu's great pyramid at Giza in 3200 BC by himself.  He also admonished Egyptian craftsmen for being lazy and refused offers of assistance.

Ancient photo of Mike hauling a stone

Why he will win:

• Mike cannot possibly lose if he makes it to the end.  He created and executed multiple moves, formed and dissolved alliances, won timely challenges, and ran the dominant game alliance for the first 2/3 of the season.  An honest jury gives him the coin.
• I've never seen a more unimpressive final 5 when it comes to physical prowess.  Unless the final challenge involves narcolepsy or repeatedly throwing a grappling hook into the fooking dirt next to your feet, Mike can easily win out in challenges.

Why he will not win:

• Woo is not playing this year.  Nobody is taking Mike to the end with them.  He MUST win out.

Carolyn

Interesting Fact:

Carolyn was actually able to make Mike Wizowski turn in his paperwork.

"Here ya go Momma 'C....'"

Why she will win:

• Carolyn played a solid if not spectacular game.  If she sits next to anybody without bible tatoos on their back, she will win.
• Of all the remaining players that jurors may actually recognize (sorry Sierra) Carolyn has done the least to hack them off.

Why she will not win:

• Carolyn made smart choices in retrospect but was never the driving force behind any move.  She agreed to join the no-collars when approached.  She agreed to join up with Tyler and even told him about the idol.  She happily joined the Rodney-4.   By definition, Carolyn was a pawn.
• Like Mike, the remaining yayhoos have no intention of sitting next to her at the end.  Like MIke, she needs to win out or she will be toast.

Rodney

Interesting Fact:

Rodney was the guy who deflated the footballs.

Why he will win:

• Rodney tried a whole bunch of $hit this season.  None of it worked, but he played his ass off.

Rodney's plans were actually dumber than this one

• He is one of rthe 2 people everyone wants to sit next to at the end.  If Will and Sierra are the other 2, I give Rodney a 60% chance winning.
• He's from Boston so he cheats.

Why he will not win:

• Rodney stomped around camp, yelled at allies and enemies alike in that guttural Boston accent that all good people find reprehensible, and shamelessly tried to coerce other people into giving them their rewards.   In order to remedy his social shortcomings, he decided to poop the bed in every single challenge.  If the final challenge was a boxing match, I suspect that Mitt Romney would fly into Nicaragua and kick his ass.
• I simply cannot live in a world where Rodney wins Survivor.  This should be enough for all you guys.

Survivor 30:  Worlds Apart Winner:

Mike

In this game, the cream usually rises to the top.