Freys NFL Picks Week 10: And One Final Broncos Rant

That’s right chumps!  Frey is back in business with a 4-0 week of picks and I intend to keep it rolling right along.

Perfection is back on the menu my friends!

Before delving into the always entertaining realm of prognostication, it seems clear that a final Broncos rant is in order.

As a general rule, I do not favor the firing of coaches unless it involves gross incompetence (such as Marty Mornhinweg from the Lions who won the coin toss in OT and elected to kick off) or cheating (anyone ever associated with the Patriots organization) but after last week, it seems clear that Vance Joseph is in WAY over his head here.

Aside from subpar preparation (vs. Jets) or a spectacular inability to finish games (vs. everyone else), one could not directly pin our losses directly on VJ.

Then the Texans come around and we:

1)      Attempt a 62 yard field goal with 18 seconds still left on the clock.  We miss it, and Houston (who has a timeout available) gets like 15 yards and adds to their lead.  You never attempt a 60+ yard field goal in a close game unless your opponent won’t see the ball again.  Ever.

2)      With 40 seconds left and a time out in hand, the coaches decide to huddle up, run the clock down, and then plunge a 180 pound rookie into the middle of the line.  This is actually a good idea…..when you are NOT  fifty-two yards away from the goal posts!  This ain’t no chip shot Vance!  We had all day to get McManus a little closer to win the game and chose to do something dumb instead.

I’m not even going to get into the fiasco of the subsequent press conferences.

I initially wondered why VJ was still our coach until I remembered some wisdom from Robert Bloch:

“The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on.”

Elway will keep him on through the rest of the year for one reason alone:  Scapegoat.

Let’s pick games.

Atlanta Falcons (-5 ½) @ Cleveland Browns

I do not need to tell you all how refreshing it is to see the universe set back in order by tacking a nice big “L” next to the Browns every week.

I suspect that a couple wins and tie for Cleveland are what set the markets into a free-fall.

Oh @#$%...Cleveland is winning again.  Sell Sell SELL!

With nothing less than our national economy at stake, Atlanta goes into the Factory of Sadness and horse-whips these guys.

Los Angeles Chargers (-9 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland is terrible.  The Chargers are not terrible.

The only thing more funny than watching the Raiders embarass themselves every week is the prospect that they are tanking so they can draft that Oregon guy who scouts are calling “The Poor Man’s Ryan Tannehill”.

Keep it up Raiders.  You have my blessing.

Seattle Seahawks (+9 ½) @ Los Angeles Rams

The spread for this game is far too big for a team that just game up 45 points the previous week.

I also have it on good authority that Wade Phillips was kidnapped and replaced with Jack DelRio.

I don’t think Seattle can hang here offensively but they are competent enough not to get totally abused.

This game screams back-door cover.  

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

It was my initial intent to label this as the clunker of the week but then I remembered that the Bills are bringing the carcass of Matt Barkley out of cold storage to start against the Jets.

As many of you know, a general rule of thumb is that teams get 3 points for playing at home.

In this case, a god-awful Giants team is travelling across the country to play a road game at 9:15 PM Eastern Time and is only a 3 point underdog?

I don’t care who the 49ers are starting at QB.

Something smells trappy here….

Week 9:  4-0

2018 Record: 20-15-1

Trap Game Record: 5-4

Frey's NFL Picks Week 9: More Reasons to Rant

In order to cleverly steer the conversation away from my less than stellar 1-3 record last week, management has decided that I should follow up last week’s unscheduled Broncos rant with an unscheduled Broncos rant.

You might think that I would complain about the offloading of DT while the season is still salvageable; that trading a quality player who is an excellent locker room presence and (by all accounts) a good human being sends a bad message to both the team and its fans.

True my rant is DT related but it’s probably not what you think.

1)      First and foremost, the season is not, in actuality, salvageable.

2)      We were never going to pay Thomas 14 million dollars next year in this or any other universe so getting a 4^th round pick and offloading the contract is nothing short of a minor miracle.

3)      Wide Receivers do NOT win championships.

My actual displeasure is two-fold.

Why did it take 8 games for this coaching staff to figure out that the bad-ass 2^nd round pick who schooled Chris Harris and dominated the preseason (and makes like 10 million less a year) needs to get more involved in the game plan? 

I can’t shake the feeling that the only way these chuckleheads were going to make this the Sanders-Sutton show was if DT was offloaded or injured.

But do you want to know what really puts a snake in my boot? 

The fact that we trade our most seasoned Bronco to the team we are playing this week and then act like there is no advantage to be had by our opponents.

Even if the specific game plan is not known to the departing player, a set and specific set of calls are made at the line of scrimmage on most plays depending upon personnel and formation.

In order to avoid a circumstance where the Texans know 80% of everything we’re going to do, we’d have to change up a system that has been in place for months whereupon Garrett Boles will get 700 yards of penalties before simply passing out cold in the middle of the field due to the intellectual strain.

If Denver is going to win this game, we’ll have to do it with Houston knowing what were going to do half of the time and, with this offense in particular, that does not bode well.

OK Houston.  Let's do this....

Enough of this though.  Let’s pick some games.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3 ½)

I cannot recall having ever seen a .500 team fail the eye test worse than this year’s incarnation of the Dolphins.  

Somehow they look bad even when not looking bad.  

I can’t really explain it with any degree of coherency so I’ll focus on the other team instead.

The Jets are terrible.

Irony:  a state of affairs or an event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often amusing as a result.

I don’t like the ½ point kicker (I’ve been getting killed by the half-point this year) but I’m taking the Fins in their own house.

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-5 ½)

As expected, the demise of the New England Patriots has been exaggerated yet again.

As long as Uggs and the woman from Throw Momma from the Train are running the show over there, they are going to be good.

Belichick and Brady continue their long and fruitful partnership to the expense of us all.

Conversely, year in and year out, pundits fawn all over the Packers, paying no heed to their multiple blemishes.

I’m taking another position on the Pack.  

The franchise has been criminally inept for 26 years.

Green Bay has benefited from having Hall of Fame QB’s (some will argue Rodgers and Favre are 2 of the top 5 at their position who ever played) every season since 1992.

Only 2 Super Bowls in 26 years with 2 of the best players in history at the most important position in sports is laughable.

Anyone else would have won 6 or 7 championships with those guys.

As far as this game is concerned, the Pack are 0-3 on the road, are playing a superior team, and shot off their collective blunderbusses last week against the Rams.

The cheaters roll here.

Tennessee Titans (+6 ½) @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are the gift that just keeps on giving. 

No level of sub-mediocrity is sufficient to get people to stop betting on these clowns.

People like this enable Casinos to build huge buildings

Tennessee is getting healthier and coming off a bye week. 

Dallas may win since it is a home game, but it is bad policy to pick below average teams to win by more than 4 unless they’re playing the Raiders.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-4 ½)

Unless the Vikings were out on that “special boat” from a couple years back, this spread is far too low.

Moreover, Rubius Hagrid just proved that he is yet another asswagon in a long line of Belichickian asswagons by bullying a reporter abut poor posture.

It sounds to me like Matt Patricia sees a lot of slumping and eye-rolling in his locker room and simply took his frustrations out on someone who can’t tell him to go bugger himself.

If it looks like a trap and it walks like a trap and it quacks like a trap….

Week 8:  1-3

2018 Record: 16-15-1

Trap Game Record: 4-4

Frey's NFL Picks Week 8: Wow Broncos. Just....Wow....

I have always found that a coupling of humor and perspective is a fool-proof formula for the lifting of spirits.

This week, the Denver Broncos were kind enough to provide me with liberal amounts of both.

In most circumstances, a 2-2 week of prognostication would generate disappointment and/or consternation.  In lieu of recent events, however, I thought I would measure this against the week the Broncos just enjoyed.

·        Plausible and verified trade rumblings involving DT and Bradley Roby surface suggesting that the team may be packing it in.

·         Our head coach denies that any such talks are occurring making him look like a puppet at best and nincompoop at worst.

·         CBS reports that, due to Case Keenum’s continued struggles, backup QB Chad Kelly will begin getting meaningful snaps in games.

·         Von Miller throws a Halloween Party for teammates whereupon 2 prominent players dress up like cocaine addicts and waive bags of white power around.  The videos are promptly posted to social media.

·         That same evening, QB Chad Kelly (dressed like Woody from Toy Story) gets hopped up on goofballs and starts trying fight everyone at the party.  Team security escorts him out to cool off but, as expected, he valiantly escapes the tacklers and takes off down the street to freedom.

·         Seeing a young woman nursing her child on her couch, Chad makes the only decision that seems appropriate at the time and enters the home to sit down next to her so that he might engage in some friendly incomprehensible rambling and occasional shouts of “There’s a snake in my boot!”

·         Her concerned husband comes out and beats Woody with an aluminum vacuum tube until he departs the house so that he can be promptly arrested.

·         Chad Kelly is fired the next day and an agitated Vance Joseph acts like nothing happened.

·         The team boards a plane to Kansas City.

You can't make this stuff up.  Even Buffalo is laughing at us.

Yep.  I’ll take the 2-2.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

Do I really even need to elaborate on this one?

You know what’s going to happen here and so do I.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3 ½)

Fans of the NBA might remember a guy named Alex English who played for the Denver Nuggets in the 80’s.

After a game would end, you’d look at the box score and say, “Wow.  English had a great game.”

Then you’d think back and start to remember a quiet but extremely effective 30 point night.

Jameis Winston is similar in this respect.  After the game ends, you look at the box score and notice some pretty solid numbers. 

But then you think back about the game you just watched and realize that he kind of sucked the entire time and it still doesn’t make any sense how he put up the numbers.

If this were fantasy football, I’d say look to Jameis to do some damage.  Since it isn’t, take the Bengals to cover.

Green Bay Packers (+9) @ Los Angeles Rams

That the Rams are a much better football team than Green Bay is not in dispute.

That having been said,  tepid fans and a negligible home field advantage make giving up 9 points to a Hall of Fame QB is a sucker’s bet.

The Pack covers here.

Cleveland Browns (+8 ½) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

When selecting this week’s picks, I simply could not force my brain to stop coming back to this game.

Pittsburgh is definitely playing better of late and the Browns are….well….exhibiting some very Brownesque tendencies again.

Still, in week 1, Cleveland was an abysmal Tyrod Taylor performance and 4 missed chip shots away from coming away with a win.

A spread this large looks trappy to me which means it probably is but I’m going to hold my nose and take the Browns anyway.

Week 7:  2-2

2018 Record: 15-12-1

Trap Game Record: 4-3

Frey's NFL Picks Week 7: It Can't Get Any Worse ....Right?

Well last week’s 0-3-1 record was the most pitiful display of prognostication since the week prior.

That having been said, my weekly picks differ from my beloved Denver Broncos in three important ways:

1)      I still have a winning record.

2)      A return to competence is likely.

3)      It’s fun to watch me try.

Winston Churchill once said, “Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

The Prime Minister is unhappy with my effort but lauds my persistance.

You can’t see me right now, but I am enthused.  I’m aquiver with anticipation of my next round of picks and brimming with confidence.  And I’m not talking the fake, drummed up braggadocio that we’ve been hearing from Von Miller this week, but real confidence.

I know Von Miller cares, and I bet that he will kick multitudes of butts tonight, but his is a lonely voice among a chorus of behaviors and body languages that scream “here we go again”.

My uncles may have partaken pretty heavy in the leaf back in their days in the Navy during Vietnam, but the proud nautical tradition I enjoy in my blood can tell when a ship is sinking.  

I’m not abandoning the vessel yet, but I’m stealthily edging toward the lifeboat.

I’d pick the Cards to win tonight but they are far too crappy for that type of nonsense.

So let’s pick some real games instead.

Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins (+3)

This would be my Admiral Akbar Game of the Week were it not for the fact that Brock Osweiler always poops the bed in the game immediately following an outing where he saves the day.

Moreover, the Lions are largely healthy and, despite their inauspicious 2-3 record, are playing pretty well for their new coach, Rubius Hagrid.

On the other hand, this is a road game, Miami is 4-2, and the Lions are….well…the Lions.

Add caption

I had to re-check to make sure this one wasn’t in London given the spread.  I’d be happy taking the fins straight up much less getting 3 points.

Minnesota Vikings (-3 ½) @ New York Jets

Sorry Jets.

The Vikings already had their trap game when they played Buffalo.

The Bills caught them off guard.  The Jets will not.

Vikings roll here.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-1 ½)

If there is one constant in the treacherous world of prognostication, it is that the Dallas Cowboys will always be overvalued whenever they show the slightest signs of not sucking.

Jerry Jones at his press conference proudly detailing Dallas' resurgence.

“Not Sucking” is not enough to win a road game against a division opponent and heated rival whose 2018 campaign can also be denied as “not sucking”.

It’ll be close, but the skins should win by 2 or more.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons (-4 ½)

And so it comes to this.

Ever since I swore off picking the Bills (win or lose, it mattered not), the New York Giants have become my new kryptonite.

This team is a dumpster fire.

They also keep covering spreads.

But, to paraphrase Dottie Hinson from A League of Their Own, I can’t pick them, and I can’t lay off them.

A more apt comparison might be Norm Peterson's inmability to stop eating at the Hungry Heffer

I know the Falcons defense couldn’t play dead in a western but they really need this game in order to stay relevant.  How this spread can be anything less than 6 ½ is dumbfounding to me.

I’m falling for the trap.

Week 6:  0-3-1

2018 Record: 13-10-1

Trap Game Record: 4-2

Frey's NFL Picks Week 6: Well....Last Week Sure Sucked. But I Got Better!

I’ve often lived under the axiom that if you cannot be a shining example, than become a cautionary tale.

My braggadocio at going 4-0 last week resulted in a resounding 0-4 bitch-slap from karma.

Sorry for the foul mouth (I know that kids read this blog before they call their bookies) but it is important that the truth be spoken.  

Never use a Boromir meme lauding your awesomeness this early in the season.

Now that balance has been restored to the universe, let’s pick some games and get them right this time.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-3)

Harry Truman once said, “There is nothing new in the world except the history you don’t know.”

For much of the last decade, New England launches out of the gate, trips on their own badoinker, lands face first in the dust, and then pops back up to smack everyone else around for the next 3 months.

I love me some Mahomes, but let’s be honest here my friends.  The rook is due for a letdown and a road game against the Patriots is as good a place as any for it to happen.  

Moreover, Andy Reid seldom comes through in big moments.  Excepting, perhaps, his curling medal from last year’s Olympics.

Congrats to Andy Reid on finally capturing a championship

Take the cheating rat-bastard Bostonians to win and cover.

Los Angeles Rams (-6 ½) @ Denver Broncos

All week long, I keep hearing local radio pundits insist that the Broncos need to run the football more.  

If the defense is in the nickel then run the ball.  

If they stack 8 in the box, then run it anyway because that is what we do best.  

Don’t be tricked into throwing by the defensive scheme, keep pounding the rock!

I love Phil Lindsay.  Freeman is a boss.

But why the $#%& did we pay a QB $18,000,000 a year if launching rookies into a stacked line is a superior alternative to throwing to one of the highest paid receiving corps in the whole freaking league?

The Broncos are done.  Keenum sucks. These clowns are cooked. 

Wade Phillips and his revenge game will go very poorly for the good guys.  

Letting this guy go was almost criminally stupid.

The complete collapse of a once proud franchise will continue unabated.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2 ½) @ Dallas Cowboys

Tune into any national (and occasionally local) radio show and you will, invariably, hear the big personalities say how much better the NFL is when teams like the Raiders and Cowboys are good.

Nonsense. 

Their fans are insufferable and it’s awesome when they suck.

Take the Jags this week.

Chicago Bears (-2 ½) @ Miami Dolphins

Can you imagine anything more intimidating to an outstanding defense then coming off your bye week and running into Ryan Tannehill?

If you can’t, then you have a lot of problems.

This game looks pretty trappy but the Bears are the correct choice here.

Week 4:  0-4

2018 Record: 13-7

Trap Game Record: 4-1

Frey's NFL Picks Week 5: More Angst. More Excellence.

While I know that most of you would love to talk about my impressive 4-0 record last week or, perhaps, my robust 13-3 mark this season, I’m not going to do that.

Instead, I am going to continue my rant from last week about my beloved Broncos.

Watching us play the Chefs was like sitting in a movie theater watching that movie about the US Olympic Hockey Team in 1980 except in this particular film, Herb Brooks leans over to assistant coach Craig Patrick and says:

                ‘Our plan of attack has kept the Soviets off-balance for almost the entire game.  But they are expecting us to continue to do what works.  Let’s change it up and start doing things that don’t work.  If that doesn’t do the trick, we can always give up the lead late in the game and then go back to what was working before but do it in a really vanilla and uncreative way that is unlikely to still work.'

Dwight Eisenhower said that, in war, plans are worthless but planning is indispensible.

We had a good game plan but sometimes you need to step back and look at what is actaully going on  instead of adhering to preconceptions or running the numbers.

Don’t be the idiot who throws the football from the 2 yard line in the Super Bowl when Marshawn Lynch has been violating the Patriots defense with impunity.

The ubiquitous buffoonery from Bolles and the continuation of rubbish QB play notwithstanding, this extremely important game was ours to lose.  Of course, we did just that.

Denver Broncos (+1) @ New York Jets

I know, I know.  I just got done trashing the Broncos. 

But have you actually seen the Jets?

If there is one type of team that Denver matches up well against its teams that are really, really bad.

If the Broncos lose this game to this team, heads are going to roll and everyone in the organization knows it.

The orange and blue win here.  I hope…..

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3 ½)

It causes me physical pain to even mention that a game this crappy is even being played.

Let us speak no more of this.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

It is important to note that in order to be a true fan of a bad organization from an inferior city (Jets/Browns/Bills/etc), one must surrender their critical faculties and equate the absence of sucking with actual competence.

The New Browns Media Campaign 2018

Well done Browns.  You didn’t go 0-16 this year, almost won a couple games against teams that took you lightly, and valiantly choked away a contest against a terrible Raiders team.

It’s a step in the right direction considering the historical ineptitude of your recent past, but not enough to get this type of respect against a solid Ravens squad.

Take the Rat-birds to cover here.

New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (-6)

Riddle me this good readers:

Why is it that a 1-3 Giants team whose signature win this season was against a mediocre team led by a guy named “Blaine Gabbert” but is still only a 6 point road underdog to a solid team like Carolina?

The Panthers beat good teams at home by more than six points.  They should stomp these buffoons right?

There is one answer and one answer alone:

I know I shouldn’t so it, but I’m falling for it.  Carolina should roll here.

Week 4:  4-0

2018 Record: 13-3

Trap Game Record: 4-0

Frey's NFL Picks Week 4: I'm a Little Peaved

Unscheduled Rant #1

Why is it that week in and week out, we have to watch Devonte Booker run straight into the collective backsides of his own linemen every time he touches the ball?  Booker’s professional highlight reel is like one great big buttfumble gif on autoplay.

Vance Joseph loves the tenacity

The coaching staff's insistence on giving this guy carries, coupled with their repeated praise is an insult to doctors, women, and monkeys.

Even more infuriating is watching Garrett Bolles fold quicker than Superman on laundry day whenever he’s paired against pass-rushers with skill greater than an accounting major from UTEP.

I have it on good authority that the draft room sounded like this when Denver picked him:

OK guys.  This is our first pick of this draft so let’s make sure we get it right and ensure that this Bolles character checks all the boxes <shuffles through some papers>

Scored 9 or less on the Wonderlic test for a position requiring high intellect and football acumen?  Check.

Never played the position until College and then only for a couple years?  Check.

Most penalized player in College Football?  Check.

Hot-head resistant to coaching?  Check.

Rated far behind guys like Ramczyk, Robinson, and Lamp who are still on the board?  Check.

Can’t go wrong here boys.  Pull the trigger…..

Not only is he an obvious bust as a first round pick, but he is a total liability to the team.

We can all see it with these clowns.  So why can’t our coaches? 

They are either inept or they are the puppets of people who are inept.

I’ll keep pulling for Denver, but I’ll be shocked if we finish better than 7-9.

Let’s make some picks before I get grumpy:

Cincinnati Bengals (+5 ½) @ Atlanta Falcons

I figured that it’s been four weeks since the opening kickoff so I might as well screw myself by picking the Bengals.

You’re welcome Atlanta.  

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7 ½)

The sports lover in me wants to think that a talented young player like Sam Darnold will take up the mantle of expectation, hoist his team upon his shoulders, and redeem himself after a poor performance.

The part of me that isn’t a dunderhead knows that “Buttfumble Jr.” is playing a pissed off Jags team on the road.

Jacksonville rolls here.  It might be 12 to 3, but they roll nonetheless.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6 ½)

For the last 3 years, the Patriots look like they are cooked by week 4.  All across the country, the righteous lift their hands to the Gods of the Gridiron and offer thanks that the evil among us is finally exorcised.

Then they win like 11 straight and play in the Super Bowl again.

I truly believe that the Patriots are finally thast “sinking ship” for which we have all longed for so many moons.  

That having been said, Miami sucks.

Take the Pats to win and cover.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans (+3 ½)

If I understand correctly, the Super Bowl champion Eagles are taking a 90 minute plane ride to play a team that can’t decide upon an injured Marcus Mariota or a crappy Blaine Gabbert to lead them to a 15^th consecutive season of mediocrity.

The aforementioned champions are still sporting an excellent defense, and now with their starting QB back in the lineup, are only favored by slightly more than a field goal.

If this isn’t a trap I don’t know what is.

I’m taking the Titans and the points.

Week 2:  3-1

2018 Record: 9-3

Trap Game Record: 3-0