Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Thanksgiving Edition

It has been a tough couple of weeks for civilization and on this Thanksgiving holiday, it is important that we take time to reflect upon life and express meaningful gratitude for those things we hold dear or, perhaps, ascribe less value than we should.

In that spirit, here are the top 7 under-appreciated things related to the NFL for which I am personally grateful..


#7:  The fact that Adrian Peterson is not our babysitter.

#6:  Firework safety.  Yep.  I guess people actually do get their fingers blown off.  I had filed that particular warning away in the BS file along with "You'll shoot your eye out" , "Coffee stunts your growth", and "Don't drink mouthwash."  

#5:  That "Thanksgiving Dinner" has become synonymous with "Wanna come over and watch Detroit get their ass kicked?"

#4:  Ryan Fitzpatrick's splendid beard. 

How can anyone not root for this guy?

#3:  With a gimpy ankle and lingering foot ailment, Ben Rothlesberger has a harder time chasing coeds into pub restrooms.

#2:  Jerry Jones:  Reminding people across the globe why they hated the Cowboys growing up.  Someone has to be the new Al Davis right?  

#1:  While religion and politics do indeed make excellent table talk at any gathering, a well-timed "how about them Browns?" can provide a much-needed blast of levity to tense situations.

St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7 ½)

The Bengals, losers of 2 straight, played great last week in a road loss to an excellent Arizona team.

The Rams lost to a crappy Ravens team who lost 62% of their players to injury before the game concluded.

Baltimore's team trainers in the locker room after the game last week.

Cincinnati is at home, they need the win, and they are pissed.

This game has 24-13 written all over it.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first time that the Jags have been favored in a game since 1996?

Family photo taken just prior to the last game in which Jacksonville was favored by more than 3.

Well there is a good reason for it.  San Diego is decimated by injuries, has largely quit trying, and (you guessed it) Phillip Rivers is a butthole.

I like Jacksonville here.  

Wow.  That is the first time in my life that I have ever typed those words.....

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (+5 ½)

1) Tom Brady is 2-5 in games played in Denver.

2) The Patriot offense is riddled with injury and had trouble protecting the quarterback last week.

3) Denver has a sick pass-rush, making the above situation even more troubling for the Pats.

4) Osweiler can throw the ball more than 15 yards without needing to twist about like a contortionist.

Peyton Manning prepares to throw a 5 yard out.

5) New England is coming off a short week and has had less time to find ways to cheat without getting caught.

I am expecting a low-scoring defensive struggle and I think that Denver covers this spread.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3 ½)

The Chiefs' defense has looked like the 85' Bears the past 2 weeks while the Bills have looked like....well...the Bills.

With Tyrod Taylor hurt, they will look even more like the Bills.

A point-spread this low, for a game in Arrowhead, with these 2 teams, defies logic.

It can only mean:

Week 8 Record:  1-3

Season Record: 27-16-1

Trap Game Record: 5-6

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 11

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.

--T.S. Eliot

We deserved better.

He deserved better.

Peyton Manning’s gut-wrenching performance against a very pedestrian Chiefs defense was almost terrifying in its hideosity.

For every John Elway (a man whose exit from the great stage was matched in perfection and panache only by Humphrey Bogart’s foggy night airport stroll with Claude Rains), there are a thousand Brett Farves, Joe Theismans, or Dan Marinos.

Following the ignominious benching of a legend last week, I was initially reminded of the scene in Surf’s Up where surfing icon Big ‘Z’ realized, to his horror, that his days at the top were over and that no amount of sacrifice was ever going to make him who he once was.

Now that I have had a week to reflect, Peyton’s situation appears to be more akin to the demise of General George S. Patton.

Both men enjoyed a strong pedigree in their chosen professions.  The enjoyed early successes, escaped injury when so many others fell, and accomplished things in the field that nobody thought possible.  They toiled ceaselessly to be the best at their craft, overcoming physiological limitations with creativity, ingenuity, and an insatiable thirst for victory.

Both were considered by friend and foe alike to be among the greatest of their era who, at the top of their games, suffered terrible setbacks to their careers that would have doomed lesser men.  Patton and Peyton defied monstrous odds when most people thought they were done for and added even more laurels to their already distinguished careers.

Then disaster.  Only months after the German surrender in WW II, George S. Patton, the man who had survived so many brushes with death and overcome so many setbacks, was grievously injured in a freak, low-speed car accident. 

In terrible agony, he lingered on, refusing to give up despite the fact that everyone around him knew he was finished.  The fight never left the man but his body ultimately betrayed him and he finally departed history not with a glorious crescendo, but with sad understatement.

Peyton Manning’s time is done.  A blind man can see it from a mile away.  In fact, we have all been blinded by his resume, by his demeanor, by his fire. 

We blamed the scheme.  We trashed the offensive line.  We lambasted the running backs.

But let us now, on the eve of day 1 of the Brock Osweiler era, admit to what our eyes have told us ever since the debacle in St. Louis in 2014 and free ourselves of this misguided scapegoatery.   He is but a shadow now.

It should have ended better for great warriors like these.

It would have been so much easier to reconcile the end had he blown out a knee, or tweaked his back, or torn a rotator cuff.  Instead, he lingers on, like the great general 70 years ago, the will to fight still blazing in his eyes.

The blade of the magnificent warrior has been dulled.  His armor lay in tatters. His sword-arm hanging limply at his side, ruined from the vanquishing of too many foes.

The great tragedy with Peyton Manning lay not in the fact that he has fought too many battles and that the sun is setting on a storied career, but that this great ambassador of the game, this ultimate competitor, this man with whom rests every meaningful passing record has become an object of our pity.

He deserved better…..

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (+1 ½)

Definitive proof of the existence of karma:

Carolina’s record since releasing Greg Hardy:  9-0

Dallas’ record since Greg Hardy returned from suspension to play for them:  0-7

By all means Dallas...Enjoy your owner.  He thinks a felonious assaulter of women is "a team leader".

Take the ‘fins and feel good about your soul.

San Francisco 49ers (+13) @ Seattle Seahawks

Did you know that a Blaine Gabbert led team has never lost a game to Seattle coming off a bye week?

Yep.  They are currently 0-0 and will soon be 0-1.

They’ll just be 0-1 with a backdoor cover.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (-2 ½)

I just got done checking the injury report. 

Amazingly, I STILL do not see Carson Palmer listed on it.

Carson Palmer usually looks like one of these guys by week 6 except he is actually really hurt.

Something evil is afoot my friends but I think the fact that Cincinnati is 8-1 kind of cancels out the weirdness when it comes to this game at least.

I expect this to be an awesome game but I like the Cards by more than a field goal here.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)

I have now seen the Packers play 3 weeks in a row.

They’re awful.  Even the corpse of Peyton Manning looked like Steve Young against these guys.

They cannot run the ball.  They can’t stop the run.

Minnesota excels at both and is at home.

This game screams “reputation spread” and could be gold for anyone smart enough to sniff it out.

On the other hand…

Week 8 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 26-13-1

Trap Game Record: 5-5

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 10

Allow me a moment to thank the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for reminding me that a gut feeling is markedly inferior to impartial analytic thinking.

I knew that was a stupid pick the second I published the post.  Screw you Tampa and that seafood stealing turnover machine that you drafted #1.

I can't believe I let my instincts talk me into betting on this guy.....

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-10)

Losing 2 straight road games has got to be rankling the men from Cheesytown. 

A nice, mellow home game against a division rival (a rival who, incidentally, happens to be almost criminally incompetent) is just what the doctor ordered.

Even the wee children know why Detroit sucks.

I never like laying that many points on the table but I cannot imagine this one being closer than 2 TD’s.

Chicago Bears (+9) @ St. Louis Rams

Do I think the Bears have a chance of winning this game? No I do not.

However, these teams’ respective play styles and Chicago’s recent foray into mediocrity give me pause when looking at the line.

Moreover, the Rams have a tendency to follow up a week where they look great with a “time to fire Jeff Fisher” game the very next time the hit the field.

I better hurry and post before I talk myself out of this pick.

Too many points here.  Take the Bears.

Houston Texans (+13) @ Cincinnati Bengals

With Andrew Luck sidelined for the next month or possibly more, the Houston Texans undoubtedly smell blood in the water.

Sadly, their quarterback is still Brian Hoyer so they’ll probably get their asses kicked.

They just won’t get them kicked by 13.

This about sums up the Texans.

This game has 24-13 written all over it.  Go with Houston.

Carolina Panthers (-4) @ Tennessee Titans

Let’s see if I understand this correctly.

An unbeaten team goes on the road to play a 2-6 outfit with a rookie QB that just fired their coach and the unbeaten guys are favored by barely more than a field goal?

I think we all know what type of game this is:

Week 8 Record:  2-2

Season Record: 23-12-1

Trap Game Record: 4-5

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 9

Allow me, my friends, to break from the usual levity of my picks to relay to you my absolute disgust with the Dallas Cowboys, their plastic owner, and the NFL Players Association.

For those of you who were not aware, Deadspin released police photos and report showing the violence of Cowboys DL Greg Hardy’s vicous assault upon his ex-girlfriend.

http://deadspin.com/this-is-why-nfl-star-greg-hardy-was-arrested-for-assaul-1739117634

Roger Goodell is a buffoon in many ways, but even he of the Ray Rice / Adrian Peterson fiascoes upheld the suspension from last year and tried to levy a 10-game ban on this scumbag.

In a manner that somehow makes perfect sense to union supporters world-wide, the NFLPA valiantly decided that no matter how terrible the individual or reprehensible the crime, Greg Hardy was deserving of the full legal, political, and financial muscle available to the union.

As a result of these efforts and the fact that a left-leaning judge presided over the appeal, the ban was reduced to a duration less than that of someone who got caught smoking weed a second time.

Beat the #$%& out of a woman, slam her into the tile, throw her onto a futon laden with loaded assault rifles, and then choke the life out of her until she begs for death:  4-game suspension.

Load a bowl with your buddies: 6-game suspension.

Good job Players Union.  Good job.

Under normal circumstances, this might be an irrelevance as nobody in the league was going to touch this guy with a 10-foot pole right?  Nope.  In steps the Dallas Cowboys and their soulless owner Jerry Jones who decided that a pass-rush specialist who assaults women is too valuable be left without a multi-million dollar contract.

Upon his return, Hardy has done the following:

1)      Joked about returning “guns-a-blazin” and made misogynistic comments about the wives and girlfriends of other players.

2)      Screamed at the special teams coach and knocked his clipboard out of his hand in the middle of a game.

3)      Got in a shouting match with Dallas’ star receiver (himself a notorious loose-cannon) who told him to calm down.

He’s only been back for 3 weeks.

Jerry Jones not only refuses to discipline this clown, but has actually doubled down on his decision to sign him, publicly stating that hardy is a “real leader” and “we need more people like him.”

This guy also thinks Greg Hardy is a "team leader"

I never thought it possible, but I seem to have found a team to hate more than the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets (-4 ½)

Only the resurgence of Blake Bortals and the Jags’ running game keeps this from being the trap game of the week.

Sadly, this game is so boring to me in just about all aspects that I cannot even find anything funny to say about it.

Wait a sec….

Nope….

Too boring.

Take the Jets here.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2 ½) @ Dallas Cowboys

If there is any chance that there is a benevolent creator living in the heavens who actually watches and cares about us, then Dallas cannot possibly win this game after what we saw and heard from these guys.

This is the “atheist vs. evangelical” pick of the week.

Let's put this debate to bed once and for all this week.

In the spirit of Pascal, I’m going Eagles.

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2 ½)

The tone set by my rant leading up to the picks seems to have given my gut the confidence it needs to override my brain.

I just can’t shake the feeling that Jameis Winston may have found some mojo and a strong performance in Tampa can break the streak of home-game ineptitude.

This is a gut-pick. Nothing more.  Hank Hill would be pissed.

Sorry Hank. I gotta do this.

I’m taking the Bucs.

Atlanta Falcons (-4 ½) @ San Francisco 49ers

Blain Gabbert?!?!

The poor man’s Danny Kannel is your new starting QB?

Picard reacts to hearing who will be starting at QB for the 9ers.

Yeah.  This is a trap.

Week 8 Record:  2-1-1

Season Record: 21-10-1

Trap Game Record: 4-4