Survivor Caramoan Season 26 Fans vs. Favorites: Week 1 Write Up and Player Breakdown

One week into this season and l must admit I am more than a little intrigued. 

The physical composition of the Fans tribe is forcing early scrambling among the veteran players and I am curious to see if, like returning players from the past, they self-immolate by voting off people they see as threatening instead of trying to keep a strong tribe.

Francesca erred by throwing all of her eggs in “The Specialist’s” basket the first go around and erred this time by tossing her eggs in everyone’s basket except Phillip, drawing unwanted attention and marking her as a schemer.  She has died by both over and under committing and became the first person in survivor history to be voted out first twice.

Let’s get to the players.

Favorites

Malcolm

I believe Malcolm had a pretty good week.

1)      His failure to best Reynold in the bag-toss may suggest to tribe-mates that he is not the next Ozzie.  It was an OK performance but Reynold broke the mold when it comes to tossing bean bags.  Let it be said that Reynold can really throw a bag.

2)      He cast his vote with the dominant voting block, preventing himself from becoming an early target as a dissenter.

3)      People seem to like him already and he’s under the radar for now.

No change to his status and his trending is consistent.

Longevity rating:  Excellent

Trending:  Flat

Andrea

Andrea put herself out there a little more than you usually like to see in the first few days. 

She played both ends against each other, eventually casting her lot with Phillip leading to Francesca again going home first. 

I think people are viewing her as a real player and, for what it is worth, she has been selected by fate to be the girl who scares the crap out of Brandon. 

She keeps her rating this week because who the hell cares what Brandon Hantz thinks, but she is trending down a bit given the way the first week played out.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Down

Cochran

For whatever reason, people seem to be falling over themselves to get this guy on their side, seeking to hitch their wagons to a terminally ill horse with a horrifying sunburn.

This development undoubtedly helps his short to mid-term prospects but I believe that the strength of the Fans tribe in challenges may cancel this impact if the Favorites drop a few more immunity contests.

Longevity rating:  ModerateModerate

Trending:  Up

Brandon

For yet another season, Brandon has made clear his mortal fear of pretty girls who actually speak.  If only ugly chicks were allowed to talk instead of these malignant sirens, poor Mr. Hantz would finally find peace in this world.

I thought he was going to go into seizures when Jeff said “…And now Andrea and Hope are going at it!” in the initial reward challenge.

 He’s still crazy and now he’s on the wrong side of the votes with a tribe that may not be as strong as they thought.

Given what I have seen thus far, he has 3 chances to survive more than a couple immunity losses:

1)      Find an idol.

2)      Dupe someone into thinking he found an idol.

3)      Make someone else quit the game by going insane on them.

Longevity rating:  Crappy

Trending:  Down

Dawn

Foolishly, she has cast her lot with the same guy who panicked and screwed her over last time (Cochran).  I always expected to see Dawn on the right side of the early voting so this is no surprise and she always melts down into a weepy mess after a few days so that doesn’t alter my thinking either.

Still, her game plan and early alliance making gives me pause, but not enough to downgrade her at this time.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Down

Erik

Ye Gods Erik…..

I can’t think of anything worse for this guy than to become Brandon Hantz’s confidant and beach buddy.

Were you being held in a Turkish prison for the last 3 years?

Obviously a force in challenges, Erik had best hope that the powers that be recognize his physical prowess since he’s already a Hantz-lover on the wrong side of the votes.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Down

Phillip

He’s abrasive, delusional, and doesn’t know the first thing about quotes from Machiavelli.

Francesca’s big mouth and feverish plotting saved him from an early exit and Brandon’s craziness will likely save him again should they lose next week’s immunity challenge.

Get used to seeing the pink undies, The Specialist is in the house.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Up

Corinne

To her credit, Corinne did not come off as a huge arsehole…..yet.

To her discredit, she didn’t really do much of anything except pour water on Cochran’s burned pate.

If her game plan is to ingratiate herself with the dungeon master, then not only does she have a dumbass plan, but she’ll run smack into Dawn who has the same dumbass plan.

No change here.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Brenda

Not a good start for Brenda.  Not only was she tagged out of the gate as a huge strategic threat, but she ended up siding with the losers in the vote at tribal council.

The editing did not really afford me a good look at her game so I am loathe to make any sweeping judgments here but I need to drop her down a bit given that she is viewed warily by the other players and is voting the wrong way right out of the gate.

She can scramble and recover but the road just got tougher.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Down

Francesca

Ahh Francesca.  We hardly knew ye…..

THE TRIBE HAS SPOKEN—Week 1

Fans:

Allie

The big drop of the week.

“She’s not the cutest”

No argument here. 

When your single claim to fame lies in being the ugliest of 3 indistinguishable blonde girls, I can’t see having much confidence going forward.

When average looking chicks who are kind of soft in challenges publically make out with guys named Reynold, it never ends well.  Ever.

The shelter snuggles ensure that she will be targeted early and often if a few immunity challenges go south.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Down

Eddie

Last week I wrote that I kind of liked this guy.  This week, I kind of don’t like this guy.

The “cool kids table” outlook not only reeks of pomposity, but is also pretty damn stupid when you have only 4 cool kids against 6 outsiders that you make a point of excluding.

They don’t appear to practice much math in the firehouse.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Down

Hope

There seems to be very little to her game aside from giggling at the fireman.

……

Ahem….moving on….

In any event, this isn’t a beauty contest and she may be on the wrong side of the numbers. 

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Down

Julia

I remember this girl because she has brown hair.

And that’s about all I have to say about that

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Up

Laura

Apparently, the local fireman does not deem this young blonde to be worthy of a spot at the cool kids’ table.

If she figures out (unlike pompous Eddie) that 6 > 4 then she’s gotta be pretty happy about that development.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Up

Matt

This dude may be saved from early elimination if the tribe does well in challenges for a couple more weeks and he can patch things up with the drill sergeant.

He needs to stay close with Michael and hope that the “beautiful people” continue to devolve into middle school students.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Up

Michael

The big climb of the week.

This Moby looking guy looks like he knows what he is doing and now he may have the numbers if he plays his cards right.

All members of the fans tribe get a boost now that we have seen that they can stick it to the favorites in challenges but I feel really good about Michael’s demeanor and plan.

The only reason I don’t kick him up another level in longevity is that I am not convinced he stacks up physically to the meatheads on the tribe and I have a feeling that the cool kids may be able to convince the drill sergeant to vote with them if they lose a couple immunity challanges.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Up

Reynold

I underestimated this guy’s competitiveness if not his intellect.

I would have bumped him up for his physical prowess and his ability to toss bean bags into holes.

……

That too sounds kind of inappropriate given his activities in the tent with the girl who is “not the cutest.”

Anyway, I think the tribe will probably whack Allie before Reynold just to try and stay strong in challenges but he may need to scramble a bit to make it to the merge.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Shamar

By not taking charge opting instead to sit around and bitching about what other people are doing and THEN taking charge, Shamar really showed us how foolish we were to think he might rub people the wrong way.

Moreover, if I ever have to see you stretch on the beach again I am going to sue the bejesus out of both Jeff Probst and the United States Marine Corps.

A beast in the first challenge, he will be kept around for muscle for the foreseeable future as long as he can step off just a little bit.

This guy is, to me, the biggest wild card.  If he goes with the meatheads, the beauty queen, and the “not the cutest” girl, it can really tip the balance of power. 

Shamar strikes me as the type of guy who may be swayed by the physical abilities of the cool kids and eschew playing the more savvy numbers game if things get tough.  The question is whether or not he would vote off one of the blondes and let the fireman and the bag-tosser stick around for some beef.

I think the way things fell in week one helps his prospects if he acts rationally.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Up

Sherri

Well….

I guess she hasn’t pissed anyone off or proven herself to be a liability.

The only downside I see is that every Stiffler’s Mom needs a Finch to pine for them and I don’t see one on this tribe.

I’ll let the rating and trend ride for a week anyway.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Who got voted out and my rating for them at the time:

Week 1:   Francesca--Poor

Inaugural Survivor Blog: Season 26 – Caramoan Fans vs. Favorites

Hail new readers and old! 

Some of you may be wondering why I have opted to take The Invectives into the oversaturated market of reality TV and to you I say this:

Who cares why?  It is my will to see it done so it will be so!

I have settled on Survivor chiefly because other reality shows are less provocative (Amazing Race), uncompetitive (Pawn Stars), allegedly staged (Storage Wars), or stupid (Jersey Shore, the Kardashians or anything from Bravo/MTV/E!).

For the first installment, I’m going to talk about each member of this season’s cast and, you guessed it, prognosticate!

Let's start with The Favorites.

Malcolm

This guy is the classic “He should have won” case.  He is like a slightly less dominant Ozzie with twice the intellect and thrice the social game.  Malcolm is the type of dude with whom you would wish to go camping, share a beer, watch sports, surf, start a business, do yard work, watch TV, crochet…..

Hell if he wasn’t busy on Survivor, my wife and I would love to employ him as our live-in Au Pair.

Malcolm has the advantage of surprise in this format.  He started up again less than 3 weeks after filming for the last season ended.  Nobody on the tribe knows anything about him although I suspect that he will be very well liked in short order.  Additionally, his youth will enable him to relate to the younger players on the Fans tribe when the merge happens while his maturity makes him a viable ally for more seasoned survivors.

Additionally, while he may become viewed as an extreme physical threat early, there is enough dead or annoying weight on the Favorites to shield him from early departure.

Conversely, due to the lack of any break from the Islands, he will likely be exhausted from a month away from civilization.

Still, I really like his chances out of the gate to go very far in this game.  His skills at challenges may take him to the final 3 even if nobody wants him along for the ride.

Longevity rating:  Excellent

Trending:  Flat

Andrea

Despite my best efforts (which, I admit were not that great) I cannot remember much about this woman except that she hung out on the beach with some other sorority chick where they groomed each other.

She didn’t do much around camp, was unremarkable in challenges, and had very little upstairs to make her a memorable personality.

I think she looked pretty good in a bikini so I am guessing that is why we get to see her again this season.

Her lack of strong persona and low threat rating will likely serve as a cloak against early torch-snuffing.  Sadly, due to the presence of Brenda, she will be unable to really play the bikini card.

The favorites tribe looks pretty strong on paper and experience usually tells early in the game so I think she may go many weeks before coming under fire.  However, if the favorites falter and she does her usual crappy job in challenges, she’s gone.

Andrea thrives in a tribe built of early 20-something meatheads and college chicks.  Her starting tribe doesn’t have this composition.  The opposing tribe does.

If she makes it to the merge somehow, look out.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Cochran

This guy huh? <sigh>

This dude has so little going for him for the early to mid-game that it would require a minor miracle to see him win the million.

1)      He’s laughably un-athletic and a total liability in any challenge that do not involve World of Warcraft.  Whichever tribe he is part of is crappier due to his presence.

2)      His reputation as a scheming neurotic worrywart who cannot be relied upon to be steadfast will make forming an initially strong alliance difficult if not impossible.

3)      Despite his self-deprecations, I still believe he thinks he’s more clever than the other people on the island and this is a cardinal sin for someone who is not more clever than the other people on the island.

He does have the advantage of being likable in kind of a “dungeon master/Woody Allen” way and his threat rating is non-existent.  If he can survive into the late game, various alliances may notice the fierce loyalty they can obtain with some kind words and acceptance.  The tribe also has a few cancers to get rid of early (Phillip/Brandon) but if the Favorites go on a losing streak, Cochran cannot be sustained.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Flat

Brandon

Brandon the unstable.  Brandon the tormented.  Brandon the capricious.

Never have I ever seen a human being that more perfectly resembles (in mannerism) Gollum from Lord of the Rings.

The last time we saw Brandon Hantz, I was reminded of the scene from The Two Towers when Smeagol/Gollum gets in a violent argument with himself about what to do with Frodo and the ring.

After what seemed like his 17^th meltdown at Tribal Council, Brandon had one of those “Leave now and never come back!  Smeagol is freeeeeee!” moments that warmed our hearts and made us snuggle a little more with our loved ones.

Even if Brandon/Smeagol wins out over Hantz/Gollum, this guy is so erratic that it is almost unconscionable that anyone would take him far enough in the game that he might earn the “I am sure to beat this guy so let’s take him to the finals” label.   Unless he kicks ass in challenges while the tribe fails or  has undergone a lobotomy between seasons, he’s gone early.

Longevity rating:  Crappy

Trending:  Flat

Dawn

Every tribe needs an older woman who kicks arse to serve as mediator and mother and this is where Dawn shines.  This well-spoken, kind, and tenacious English professor is likely to become a tribe favorite in pretty short order if she can resist the urge to rekindle her previous relationship with Cochran.

She’s great in challenges, works hard at camp, and is generally very good for morale.  Because of the demographics of this tribe, she will not be pigeonholed as the ineffectual old woman as anyone who has seen the show will know this is not so.

 I like this lady because she reminds me of a tan, skinny, Suze Orman.   On the down side, nobody with half a brain wants her sitting next to them at the end only to get lambasted by this saintly verbal pugilist.  

She is too savvy to commit any obvious blunders so her short-term viability is excellent but, unlike Malcolm, she may not have enough in the tank to bully her way physically to the finals should the situation call for it.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Erik

There are two possibilities for this guy:

1)      He’s every bit as dumb as he looked when letting Parvati talk him out of his immunity Necklace

2)      He isn’t that dumb.

If the answer is “2”, then there is hope for this guy.  He’s older and wiser and if he’s still likable and didn’t go “Fat Elvis” over the last few years, he’ll make it to the merge and far beyond. 

Like Malcolm, he’s still young enough to relate to the youths on the other tribe should the merge occur with something close to even numbers.

If he is more akin to possibility “1”, then he’ll make it to the jury but no farther.

I’m thinking that nobody can be that dumb on national TV twice.  Can They?  He was good in challanges and everyone loved having him around.  Some danger here I think.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Phillip

Tragically, it appears that “The Specialist” will be treating us to another season of pink undies. 

I was about to write that Brandon was the most unstable human being that I have ever seen on Survivor due to his battle between sanity and madness but then I remembered Phillip.

Phillip is crazy.  I don’t mean “African-American” crazy, but actual crazy.  He’s like an unholy mix between Willie  Loman from Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, and that Rasputin looking guy that would dig through the dumpster when I used to work north of downtown.

He has the added benefit of being a son-of-a-bitch on top of it.

I do not believe there is any possible way that the tribe will be able to stomach him long enough to even get to the point where his instability and severe lack of likability become assets.

Barring some early and extreme social missteps by the two ladies below (or perhaps, if Cochran actually pees on Jeff Probst during an immunity challenge when he should be climbing something), this guy is out fast. 

Longevity rating:  Crappy

Trending:  Flat

Corinne

Much like Andrea, I can remember next to nothing about this woman.  Reading her Bio, it does seem like she is kind of an butthole.

If memory serves, she was an SOB the last time she played (her fued with Sugar comes to mind) but nothing about her really stuck with me.

She did make fun of all the models and actresses that they keep dredging up for this show, citing that she has a real job (hence her inability to appear on “Heros vs. Viilains”) so I kind of like her on that level.

She was moderate to good at challenges and showed herself to be loyal in her alliances She may end up faring OK but I do not like her long-term prospects very much.

Sneaky and underhanded bastards go far in this game.  People who exhibit pointless and senseless acts of assholery to other people do not.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Brenda

I really liked the game Brenda played last time out.  She was in complete control of events until fate intervened and lesser people failed.

To her discredit, I believe that she (like many players who unexpectedly find themselves in power positions) allowed complacency to cloud her perception.   Still, she seldom overplayed her hand and was not senselessly buttholish to players on the outs of her alliance, maintaining a certain level of likability that will keep her from becoming an early target like Corinne, Brandon, or Phillip.

As the owner of a company, she has skill in negotiation and people management.  Since that company is in the business of paddleboard manufacture and sales, she is in top physical shape making her a force in challenges.  Moreover, her physical appearance supersedes Andrea’s “I look nice in a bikini” strategy within her starting tribe.

If she can keep from getting cocky for a second season, I can see her seizing control of the game early and riding it to the final 3.  The only concern I have, (and it is not insubstantial) is that the other players will make the inevitable comparison to Parvati and it will scare the crap out of them.

Longevity rating:  Excellent

Trending:  Flat

Francesca

I have no idea why this woman is here.  Whose favorite is she? 

Francesca got dumped the very first episode the last time she was on the island for allying herself with crazy Phillip and for being an insufferable know-it-all.

She must have pictures of Probst buggering a llama or something.

Anyway, I really don’t know enough about this woman (she looks to be too young to be the lady  they caught smoking crack with Marion Barry a couple of decades back) to make any sort of educated guess regarding her survivability so I’ll just look to history. 

She was an overbearing loud-mouth with poor instincts the first time out so I’ll just use that as a starting point. 

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Flat

Now for the Fans tribe. 

Knowing next to nothing about these cats it is difficult to make any conclusions regarding their potential so I must utilize the time-honored tradition of making snap judgments based solely upon appearance and first impression.  Given the less than stellar results of my NFL playoff picks, I may end up actually doing better on this group…..

Allie
It seems that every season we get a disinteresting young blonde bartender/waitress/dancer/actress and this season is no exception.

I am wondering if, like Barney Gumbal from The Simpsons, she’ll turn into some sort of super hero when taken away from the debauchery of schlepping and ingesting booze.

I doubt it.  Probably another harmless mid-level torch snuff but being a barkeep does tend to make one perceptive and this one seems to be the most savvy of the sorority girls.

We’ll see.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Eddie

I kind of like this guy.  He seems friendly and is obviously in pretty good shape being a firefighter and all.  Among tribe-mates, his chosen career will invoke visions of rescuing kittens in trees and rushing into burning houses to fetch Grandma’s favorite shawl to keep her from getting a chill in the crisp night air.

His age and position allows him to ally himself selectively with either the seasoned players or the whelps depending upon which side the power resides.  His obvious physicality will almost certainly protect him from early departure.

It is absolutely vital for the Fans tribe to head to the merge united and close to a match in numbers and this is even more so for Eddie as he will be viewed as a serious threat for individual immunity once the merge happens.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Hope
Another beauty queen (Miss Missouri).  Well, I’d be lying if I said I would prefer they found more ugly people to prance around on my HD in skimpy swimwear but I am not sure what kind of social game to expect from Hope.

It seems that women from the prim, proper, and polite word of pageants have a very difficult time wielding the knife and, if they attempt to do so, lack subtlety.  They also lean toward the soft side on challenges despite outward appearances.

It is likely she will find a strong figure in the tribe, set herself firmly upon his/her shoulders, and ride her beauty to the merge and beyond.  None of the dudes will want to vote her out (why would they?) and her charm and charisma will likely prevent any significant social gaffes with the ladies.

I don’t suspect she will be viewed as much of a physical threat and would likely be quite eloquent if he makes it to the final 3.  The type of game I think she’ll end up playing will get her far but cannot translate to total victory.

Longevity rating:  Good

Trending:  Flat

Julia
Getting a read on Julia is most difficult. 

On one hand, she is a young (21), smart (attends Stanford), and is a racecar driver (bitchin!). 

I suspect that her drive and intellect will make her stronger in challenges than the rest of her female tribe-mates, shielding her from early departure.

On the other hand, her New York roots and obviously jockish and competitive demeanor are almost certain to put her on the outs with the young, blonde princesses who dominate the tribe.

She will have to overcome much to survive early but if she can do so, she may do some damage in the mid to late game.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Laura
From what I can see, this girl seems unremarkable in personality, experience, and physical prowess.

She looks like she’ll fit in with the other Delta-Delta-Deltas that seem to dominate the tribe demographic so she’ll probably make it to the merge.

That’s about all I have to say about that.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Matt
I cannot shake the feeling that this self-described “softy with a bad-ass exterior” is going be gone quickly.

He’s older, looks different than the others, has unusual life experiences, and his tats will probably spook the delicate sensibilities of tribe-mates who do not race cars or schlep drinks.

I see it breaking down like this:

“We lost the challenge.  You’re different than we are.  Bring Jeff your torch”

He may look like a Viking, but do you know what happened to Vikings with soft hearts?  They got their ass kicked.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Flat

Michael

Another probable victim of “young tribe syndrome.”

This guy may have the best strategy in the world but if this tribe does not fare well initially in challenges, he’ll be targeted early and often.  If they approach the merge with similar numbers, he will be viewed as a flop risk and will be similarly targeted.

If the merge comes and the numbers are close, I can see him surviving to 6 or 7 but even then, everything will have to go just right.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Flat

Reynold
He seems likable enough I guess.  Reynold appears athletic although not in a threatening way and claims to be on the Island to have fun and make friends.

This is an excellent short to mid-term strategy.  Do well enough to stick around, make friends, and don’t be overbearing or threatening. 

Sadly, people on the game to make friends often become paralyzed when the time comes to make the inevitable tough decision.  Indecision is death in this game.  Ask Penner.

Reynold is the survivor equivalent of the goofy tall white guy that every NBA team has on the bench who ventures out like a buffoon when the game is either already lost or already won.  Everyone likes him, he’s just not a serious player.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Shamar
Aside from that Terry guy like 7 years ago, military people have a hard time on this game.

Structure, planning, discipline, hard-work.  All these things are vital to success in battle and in life.

OK, now take that approach and try to apply it to a platoon of 20 year old bartenders, actresses, and beauty queens who are stuck on an island and deprived of food.  Hell, go tell the tatted up BMX bike guy to drop and give you 20.

If he tries to go drill sergeant on the kids he’s gone and it doesn’t matter how good he does in challenges.  Hercules himself could be a member of the tribe and they’d sent him to Hades simply for annoying them.

However, word on the street is that he was involved with the Occupy Wall Street movement.  If this is the case, this dude has to be well-versed in dealing with lazy and entitled ne’er-do-wells.

Tough call but I am going to err on the side of “different means dangerous” and flag Shamar for an early exit.

Longevity rating:  Poor

Trending:  Flat

Sherri
If “Stiffler’s Mom” has any designs on lasting more than a few tribal councils, she will need to play the role of loving house mother to the kiddos on the tribe and kick butts in challenges.

If she is too abrasive or preachy, she will certainly earn the moniker of “bitter old cougar” from her tribe mates and be sent packing in short order.

There is some potential here the makeup of the tribe and she will certainly settle in easier with more seasoned castaways after the merge.  It all depends upon how she plays her cards.

Longevity rating:  Moderate

Trending:  Flat

Humilation and Vindication: Frey's Super Bowl Wrap Up

I’m not even quite sure where to begin.  I’ve had better results predicting things I don’t even understand like cricket or whether or not that dude from the office is faking his neck injury.

I nearly broke into tears for the safety of my children when I realized that I had told a friend that I agreed with scientists that the big-assed asteroid that is going to buzz earth wouldn’t hit us.

If I had picked the Globetrotters to win straight up the Washington generals would have beat the #$%& out of them.

It was a bad postseason.  2-7-2.  A very bad post-season.

But from the ashes of my self-respect, one aspect of my post-season writings and rants ascends like a phoenix.  In nearly every game of this post-season (it would have been every game if the Falcon-Seahawks contest hadn’t been played at like 3:30 AM Pacific), the team that exhibited the spirit of attack, concocting creative and generally balsy ways to assault their foes, won the day.

Week upon infuriating week, superior teams strutted through their respective tunnels like a spry 52 year-old woman into a bingo parlor and only to get dropped by the guys who did not hand it to the fullback on 3^rd and 8 or refuse to blitz a guy who takes 7-step drops.

The Super Bowl was no exception to this rule.  Until I caused the power outage in one last dying effort to get one of my picks right, the game was crap.  In fact, the first 31 minutes of game time sullied the good name of crap.

Baltimore threw it deep, blitzed, changed up formations, and even faked a field goal down on their opponent’s 14 yard line.

Until forced to sack up by a 22 point deficit, San Francisco displayed such gems as a halfback dive on 3 and 14 on the first drive of the game, a consistently vanilla pass-rush, and a punt inside the Raven’s 40.

For the 3^rd straight game, the Raven’s coaching staff (unlike their contemporaries) acted like they thought they might be kncked out of the playoffs if they lost.  Just why this possibility did not occur to other franchises is anyone's guess but for the 3^rd straight game, Baltimore defeated a team that, on paper, they had no business defeating.  Fortune favors the bold.

 I loved the fake field goal call.  When you are an older team that is inferior in athleticism and dynamism, you must go for the throat when you can.  An 18 point lead at that point in the game and the fat lady would have started belting out a few test notes. 

The fact that it didn’t work was almost immaterial.  The very audacity of that call signaled to the Niners that they were in for a brouhaha, trapped them down on their own end, and kept anyone wearing gold from the couch to the bench from settling into anything approximating a comfort zone. 

However, the most telling play, for me at least, came late in the game with the Ravens facing a 3^rd and long  (6,7,8 yards I cannot now recall).

Just as the Ravens did to the Broncos 3 weeks prior, the 49ers loaded the box with anyone that could be spared, leaving the receivers with 1 on 1 coverage. 

Did the Ravens obligingly plunge into the line, conceding the series in the interest of a few more ticks off the clock?  Nay!  They noted the single coverage and chucked the ball to a large and talented Anquan Bolden (kind of like a slow Demarius Thomas) and let their play-makers actually make plays.

In retrospect, this intelligent, confident, and courageous play call did not directly impact the result, but put on display the stark contrast between John Harbaugh and John Foxenheimer/Old Lady Belichick.

In order to bring home Vince’s trophy, an entire organization must bring their best each and every week in the playoffs.  The players, the coaches, the water boys, the ball dryers, the equipment managers, everyone. 

To the Ravens’ credit, a combination of lady luck, execution, PED’s (there is no way a 37 year-old Ray Lewis gets back from a 6-month injury in 2 months and then has 17 tackles in a double OT game with a -2 degree wind chill), and aggressiveness earned them their championship rings and bestowed upon me the ignominious title of “worst playoff prognosticator of 2013.” 

Screw you Baltimore.

Go Broncos!

This has been Frey.

It is Finally Time: Frey’s Super Bowl Pick

At this point, you are all probably thinking that I have about as much credibility when it comes to the art of predicting playoff outcomes as would Hitler were he to teach a course in ethnic sensitivity and tolerance.

Playoff record 2-6-2

Charting the same course as my beloved Broncos, I opted to follow up a stellar regular season with laughable ineptitude in the playoffs.  Under such circumstances, it would be easy to start to equivocate, lose one’s confidence, and perhaps, even, to feel shame.

But fear not my friends!  As my wife will tell you, no amount of catastrophic bumbling has ever coerced me into shutting my yap and it is not about to begin this day.  This day, we prognosticate!

SuperBowl XLVII

Baltimore at San Francisco (-3 ½) *prediction at the end of the post

To me, this is one of the most difficult big games to predict in recent memory.  In fact, in the time I have spent writing this entry, I have altered my prediction a half-dozen times. 

Clearly, the Ravens in their current incarnation (antlers and all) are a reflection of the team sitting pretty at 9-2 before getting ravaged by injuries. 

The 49ers (the ass-kicking suffered at the hands of the Seahawks notwithstanding) have been equally impressive in that they have displayed the ability to stomp a very good team (Green Bay) and to win a hotly contested game on the road against the Falcons.

Baltimore has ruled the post-season with an epic run that gives hope to underdogs everywhere that miracles do happen, fate shapes our existence, and the “Miracle on Ice” was not a fluke. 

Hell, by all accounts I should be cowering in a dark closet in shame after this year’s playoff predictions but, channeling my inner Raven, I decided to come out and give it another go. 

In a way, for the aforementioned reason, I feel a strong affinity for this team.  In another, more important way, they are a bunch of wife-beating, PED-taking, knife-wielding felons.  It is said even Carmelo Anthony blanches upon the mere mention of the Ravens' team rap sheet.

Conversely, San Francisco put up unbelievable numbers during the regular season, averaging double the yards per play that the Ravens posted.  They have remained healthy, defeated a multitude of strong opponents, and seem energized beyond belief by the strong personality of their coach and the dynamism of their new QB.  I absolutely love the fact that they took the copy-cat NFL and all the 4-wide sets and zone blocking and gave it a humiliating kick in the crotch. 

Bucking trends.  Innovation.  Surprises.  The Niner’s s are like the Patriots from 10 years ago when they were still cheating and Belichik had balls.

San Francisco is 22-0-1 in their last 23 games when they scored more than 20 points and I have a hard time believing that even the revamped Ravens D that has been giving up an average of 378 yards per game is going to hold the Niners to 19 or less.

In a way, one might say that my kinship lies with these cats.  In another, more important way, any franchise from the Bay Area stupid enough to put a gay-basher in front of microphones on media day with millions of people listening may just be due for a crap game.

On paper, San Francisco is younger, stronger, faster and better. 

On paper, Baltimore should have lost to both Denver and New England by 20.

There is something to be said for destiny.  It is the force that froze over New York Harbor so the Continental Army could escape the Limeys during the revolution.  It hurled the Divine Wind at the invaders of Japan, struck the great Kahn dead at the gates of Vienna, and enabled Union officers to find Lee’s battle plans in a discarded cigar wrapping before the great battle of Antietam during the Civil War.

One would be a fool to completely disregard the forces of history particularly in a game so fueled by emotion.  When fate (or the hand of God as the Ravens players say) is on your side, the impossible becomes commonplace.

But then I start thinking.  Unless God is a real butthole, there is no way he can possibly favor the Ravens right?  Right?

It can be said that strength, planning, and skill wins the day and that fate is a bunch of horse poop.  These things enabled the Mongols to drive across the length of 3 United States’, embarrassing the combined might of the Christian world at every turn.  It allowed the British Army to beat the Rebels like circus monkeys and drive them to the sea where they would need a miracle to save them. 

I am a realist; a practitioner of Realpolitik.  In a battle of intangibles vs. tangibles give me the latter my friends.  Better to do what’s right and suffer the faith-based admonitions of one’s friends and foes than to fall into the band of shamans and hippies who buy into this poppycock about fate.

 My heart tells me Ravens but my brain tells me 49ers.

As Hank Hill once said (and as I often restate to my 6 year old daughter) your heart is your brain’s employee.  Don’t listen to it.  It’s a monkey.  You know better.  If you let your heart become uppity, pretty soon you’re doing and believing all sorts of stupid things.

On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers strike a blow against mumbo-jumbo and cover while doing it!

San Francisco wins 27-19.

And that, good readers, is the season.