One week into this season and l must admit I am more than a little intrigued.
The physical composition of the Fans tribe is forcing early scrambling among the veteran players and I am curious to see if, like returning players from the past, they self-immolate by voting off people they see as threatening instead of trying to keep a strong tribe.
Francesca erred by throwing all of her eggs in “The Specialist’s” basket the first go around and erred this time by tossing her eggs in everyone’s basket except Phillip, drawing unwanted attention and marking her as a schemer. She has died by both over and under committing and became the first person in survivor history to be voted out first twice.
Let’s get to the players.
Favorites
Malcolm
I believe Malcolm had a pretty good week.
1) His failure to best Reynold in the bag-toss may suggest to tribe-mates that he is not the next Ozzie. It was an OK performance but Reynold broke the mold when it comes to tossing bean bags. Let it be said that Reynold can really throw a bag.
2) He cast his vote with the dominant voting block, preventing himself from becoming an early target as a dissenter.
3) People seem to like him already and he’s under the radar for now.
No change to his status and his trending is consistent.
Longevity rating: Excellent
Trending: Flat
Andrea
Andrea put herself out there a little more than you usually like to see in the first few days.
She played both ends against each other, eventually casting her lot with Phillip leading to Francesca again going home first.
I think people are viewing her as a real player and, for what it is worth, she has been selected by fate to be the girl who scares the crap out of Brandon.
She keeps her rating this week because who the hell cares what Brandon Hantz thinks, but she is trending down a bit given the way the first week played out.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Down
Cochran
For whatever reason, people seem to be falling over themselves to get this guy on their side, seeking to hitch their wagons to a terminally ill horse with a horrifying sunburn.
This development undoubtedly helps his short to mid-term prospects but I believe that the strength of the Fans tribe in challenges may cancel this impact if the Favorites drop a few more immunity contests.
Longevity rating: ModerateModerate
Trending: Up
Brandon
For yet another season, Brandon has made clear his mortal fear of pretty girls who actually speak. If only ugly chicks were allowed to talk instead of these malignant sirens, poor Mr. Hantz would finally find peace in this world.
I thought he was going to go into seizures when Jeff said “…And now Andrea and Hope are going at it!” in the initial reward challenge.
He’s still crazy and now he’s on the wrong side of the votes with a tribe that may not be as strong as they thought.
Given what I have seen thus far, he has 3 chances to survive more than a couple immunity losses:
1) Find an idol.
2) Dupe someone into thinking he found an idol.
3) Make someone else quit the game by going insane on them.
Longevity rating: Crappy
Trending: Down
Dawn
Foolishly, she has cast her lot with the same guy who panicked and screwed her over last time (Cochran). I always expected to see Dawn on the right side of the early voting so this is no surprise and she always melts down into a weepy mess after a few days so that doesn’t alter my thinking either.
Still, her game plan and early alliance making gives me pause, but not enough to downgrade her at this time.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Down
Erik
Ye Gods Erik…..
I can’t think of anything worse for this guy than to become Brandon Hantz’s confidant and beach buddy.
Were you being held in a Turkish prison for the last 3 years?
Obviously a force in challenges, Erik had best hope that the powers that be recognize his physical prowess since he’s already a Hantz-lover on the wrong side of the votes.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Down
Phillip
He’s abrasive, delusional, and doesn’t know the first thing about quotes from Machiavelli.
Francesca’s big mouth and feverish plotting saved him from an early exit and Brandon’s craziness will likely save him again should they lose next week’s immunity challenge.
Get used to seeing the pink undies, The Specialist is in the house.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Up
Corinne
To her credit, Corinne did not come off as a huge arsehole…..yet.
To her discredit, she didn’t really do much of anything except pour water on Cochran’s burned pate.
If her game plan is to ingratiate herself with the dungeon master, then not only does she have a dumbass plan, but she’ll run smack into Dawn who has the same dumbass plan.
No change here.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Brenda
Not a good start for Brenda. Not only was she tagged out of the gate as a huge strategic threat, but she ended up siding with the losers in the vote at tribal council.
The editing did not really afford me a good look at her game so I am loathe to make any sweeping judgments here but I need to drop her down a bit given that she is viewed warily by the other players and is voting the wrong way right out of the gate.
She can scramble and recover but the road just got tougher.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Down
Francesca
Ahh Francesca. We hardly knew ye…..
THE TRIBE HAS SPOKEN—Week 1
Fans:
Allie
The big drop of the week.
The big drop of the week.
“She’s not the cutest”
No argument here.
When your single claim to fame lies in being the ugliest of 3 indistinguishable blonde girls, I can’t see having much confidence going forward.
When average looking chicks who are kind of soft in challenges publically make out with guys named Reynold, it never ends well. Ever.
The shelter snuggles ensure that she will be targeted early and often if a few immunity challenges go south.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Down
Eddie
Last week I wrote that I kind of liked this guy. This week, I kind of don’t like this guy.
Last week I wrote that I kind of liked this guy. This week, I kind of don’t like this guy.
The “cool kids table” outlook not only reeks of pomposity, but is also pretty damn stupid when you have only 4 cool kids against 6 outsiders that you make a point of excluding.
They don’t appear to practice much math in the firehouse.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Down
Hope
There seems to be very little to her game aside from giggling at the fireman.
There seems to be very little to her game aside from giggling at the fireman.
……
Ahem….moving on….
In any event, this isn’t a beauty contest and she may be on the wrong side of the numbers.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Down
Julia
I remember this girl because she has brown hair.
I remember this girl because she has brown hair.
And that’s about all I have to say about that
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Up
Laura
Apparently, the local fireman does not deem this young blonde to be worthy of a spot at the cool kids’ table.
Apparently, the local fireman does not deem this young blonde to be worthy of a spot at the cool kids’ table.
If she figures out (unlike pompous Eddie) that 6 > 4 then she’s gotta be pretty happy about that development.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Up
Matt
This dude may be saved from early elimination if the tribe does well in challenges for a couple more weeks and he can patch things up with the drill sergeant.
This dude may be saved from early elimination if the tribe does well in challenges for a couple more weeks and he can patch things up with the drill sergeant.
He needs to stay close with Michael and hope that the “beautiful people” continue to devolve into middle school students.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Up
Michael
The big climb of the week.
This Moby looking guy looks like he knows what he is doing and now he may have the numbers if he plays his cards right.
All members of the fans tribe get a boost now that we have seen that they can stick it to the favorites in challenges but I feel really good about Michael’s demeanor and plan.
The only reason I don’t kick him up another level in longevity is that I am not convinced he stacks up physically to the meatheads on the tribe and I have a feeling that the cool kids may be able to convince the drill sergeant to vote with them if they lose a couple immunity challanges.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Up
Reynold
I underestimated this guy’s competitiveness if not his intellect.
I underestimated this guy’s competitiveness if not his intellect.
I would have bumped him up for his physical prowess and his ability to toss bean bags into holes.
……
That too sounds kind of inappropriate given his activities in the tent with the girl who is “not the cutest.”
Anyway, I think the tribe will probably whack Allie before Reynold just to try and stay strong in challenges but he may need to scramble a bit to make it to the merge.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Shamar
By not taking charge opting instead to sit around and bitching about what other people are doing and THEN taking charge, Shamar really showed us how foolish we were to think he might rub people the wrong way.
Moreover, if I ever have to see you stretch on the beach again I am going to sue the bejesus out of both Jeff Probst and the United States Marine Corps.
A beast in the first challenge, he will be kept around for muscle for the foreseeable future as long as he can step off just a little bit.
This guy is, to me, the biggest wild card. If he goes with the meatheads, the beauty queen, and the “not the cutest” girl, it can really tip the balance of power.
Shamar strikes me as the type of guy who may be swayed by the physical abilities of the cool kids and eschew playing the more savvy numbers game if things get tough. The question is whether or not he would vote off one of the blondes and let the fireman and the bag-tosser stick around for some beef.
I think the way things fell in week one helps his prospects if he acts rationally.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Up
Sherri
Well….
Well….
I guess she hasn’t pissed anyone off or proven herself to be a liability.
The only downside I see is that every Stiffler’s Mom needs a Finch to pine for them and I don’t see one on this tribe.
I’ll let the rating and trend ride for a week anyway.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Who got voted out and my rating for them at the time:
Week 1: Francesca--Poor
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