Frey's Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

Some may look at last week's 1-3 record against the spread and say, "this guy doesn't know his ass from his face."

Charlie and Dick Monfort (owners of the Colorado Rockies) see 1-3 and say, "We need to look into a contract extension for that guy!"

Since I am never one to eschew a fat new contract extension, I suppose a round of picks are in order.


Baltimore @ New England (-7)

I've been flip-flopping on this pick all week.

I want Baltimore to win.

Like any true Broncos fan, I harbor within my heart a healthy disgust for all other teams, cities, and people. 

It is only a question of degree.

My hatred for New England far exceeds that of most other teams and I do not want to play in New England if Denver wins this week.

Sadly, however, I have found that there is often a wide chasm between what I wish and what is true.

While analyzing this game, I discovered something somewhat shocking about Baltimore's 10 wins this year:

Only 1 victory (Pittsburgh at home in week 2) came against a team with a winning record.  1 freaking win all season!

A visual representation of Baltimore's 10 wins this season.  Not gonna fly this week in Foxboro.

New England is rested, balanced, healthy, at home, and has had an extra week to figure out some way to cheat more effectively than usual.

In matters both practical and spiritual, I do not allow wish-thinking to determine my position.  There will be no hypocrisy from me this week.

The dirty rat bastard Patriots win and cover.


Carolina (+11.5) @ Seattle

Last week I lamented the fact that so many people had jumped upon the Carolina bandwagon.

In retrospect, Arizona with a 3rd string QB was much worse than I thought they'd be and Carolina might be a little better.

Still, I am not enthusiastic about hitching my wagon to a .500 team that is travelling into Seattle to play the champs.

Laying this many points in a game featuring two run-heavy teams with excellent and/or resurgent defenses is too much for this prognosticator.

Seattle could completely dominate this game in all facets and still find themselves with a 23-6 lead with 2 minutes left, pull their starters, give up a meaningless garbage time TD, and then fail to cover.

Seattle wins and dominates, I just don't think they'll cover.

Too much spread

Dallas @ Green Bay (-5.5)


There are 3 primary questions surrounding this game that make it a difficult pick:

• Which Dallas team shows up this week?  The one that violated the Colts or the one that looked like a bunch of dipshits last week at home against Detroit?
• Is Aaron Rodgers going to be able to be Aaron Rodgers with a bum calf?
• Will the NFL allow Dallas too bring their own refs again?

My answers to these are thus:

• I care little about the uncertainty regarding which Cowboy's team shows up as I know EXACTLY which Green Bay team will show up at Lambeau Field.  The same one that always does. The one that kicks ass.
• Isn't an Aaron Rodgers who can't scramble just Peyton Manning with a stronger arm?
• Green Bay always gets to chose their own refs for home games.  Anyone else would be likely to get pelted to death with cheese wheels.

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It won't be a rout, but the Pack should win by a TD at least.


Indianapolis @ Denver (-7)

Every year at about this time, I want to pull the old "reverse-jinx" and pick against my beloved Broncos.

However, much to my chagrin, my responsibility as a prognosticator, a writer, and as a logician require that I call it like it is.

Denver is as well rested as they have been at any point since week 4.  What health issues remain with the Broncos involve the middle of the field and our ability to stuff anything that happens between the tackles and in the middle screen game.

Guess what Indianapolis sucks at?  Yep!  Running the football between the tackles.

From the Broncos, I expect a lot of nickel, a lot of pressure, and a lot of points.

Sorry Indy, it's not your time yet.

And because I'm kind of a dick, I present to Colts fans::

JINX!!!!!!

Broncos win and cover.