Frey's Championship Picks and Broncos Rant

Listen…..

I’m not even going to pretend that I know what I am talking about after going 0-4 against the spread last week.

Children of the 80's and 90's.....you know how this feels......

But not knowing what I am talking about has never kept me from railing on about stuff in the past and I am not about to slow my roll now.

Let me start by regurgitating my disgust upon the Denver Broncos infuriating and uninspired performance.

How could they do this to a child?  How!?!?!

Did someone forget to tell Jack Del Rio that the Colts have a competent QB? 

We came out series after series, lined up pretty much the same way, didn’t move anyone around or stunt much, and watched the Colts methodically mount clock and soul killing drives.

Hell, even the 2 turnovers we got were simply “arm punts”. 

Whenever the opposing QB is walking off the field during a playoff game laughing after tossing an interception you know that you've been had.

How about that offensive game plan eh? 

Nothing like a series of 1 yard crossing patterns finishing with a crescendo of Hail Mary throws down the sidelines into triple coverage.   Either Indy was playing with 13 defensive backs or someone else has to be open somewhere.

If I see 1 more freaking bubble screen I am going to punch Adam Gase in the wiener. 

Here are the picks for what it’s worth <grumble>:

Green Bay @ Seattle (-7)

There are 3 reasons why I cannot guarantee a Seattle blowout this week:

1)      The weather is supposed to be windy and rainy.  Soggy weather tends to penalize the speedier team (Seattle) and throws some uncertainty into the turnover margins.

2)      Aaron Rodgers at 75% is still the 2nd or 3rd  best QB in the NFL.  Elite QB’s have a tendency to pull of wins if the games are close coming down the stretch.

3)      After the last 2 weeks I couldn't guarantee that rain was wet with any degree of confidence.

This pick rests solely on the eye test.  I watched all the games last week and am always shocked at the speed and physicality of the Seahawks on both sides of the ball.

A hobbled Rodgers looked inconsistent last week against a subpar Dallas pass rush and secondary.  If I am Packers fan, I am probably pooping cheese right now.

Take the ‘Hawks to cover.

Indianapolis @ New England (-6.5)

Last week I predicted a New England win and cover (got it half right) based partly upon the idea that the Patriots are nearly undefeatable when allowed an extra week to plan new and effective ways to cheat.

As always, the rat-bastard Patriots did not disappoint, shrewdly skirting the line between dishonorable and outright felonious with their shifty formations and quick snaps.

Here is what I expect will happen this week:

Lacking the time to come up with something both nefarious and subtle, Belichick will exploit the NFL’s new policy of suspending players charged with major crimes and pay that worthless chick who falsely accused the Duke Lacrosse team of sexual assault to levy the same charge against Andrew Luck.

Should the Colts cry foul, Brady will simply chuckle, shrug, and say, “Those guys need to read the rulebook.”

Belichick and Brady finalize this week's game plan.

I hate those guys…..

Anyway, hate them or not, they’ll win by at least 7.

Post-Season Record against the spread:  1-7

Frey's Playoff Picks: Divisional Round

Some may look at last week's 1-3 record against the spread and say, "this guy doesn't know his ass from his face."

Charlie and Dick Monfort (owners of the Colorado Rockies) see 1-3 and say, "We need to look into a contract extension for that guy!"

Since I am never one to eschew a fat new contract extension, I suppose a round of picks are in order.


Baltimore @ New England (-7)

I've been flip-flopping on this pick all week.

I want Baltimore to win.

Like any true Broncos fan, I harbor within my heart a healthy disgust for all other teams, cities, and people. 

It is only a question of degree.

My hatred for New England far exceeds that of most other teams and I do not want to play in New England if Denver wins this week.

Sadly, however, I have found that there is often a wide chasm between what I wish and what is true.

While analyzing this game, I discovered something somewhat shocking about Baltimore's 10 wins this year:

Only 1 victory (Pittsburgh at home in week 2) came against a team with a winning record.  1 freaking win all season!

A visual representation of Baltimore's 10 wins this season.  Not gonna fly this week in Foxboro.

New England is rested, balanced, healthy, at home, and has had an extra week to figure out some way to cheat more effectively than usual.

In matters both practical and spiritual, I do not allow wish-thinking to determine my position.  There will be no hypocrisy from me this week.

The dirty rat bastard Patriots win and cover.


Carolina (+11.5) @ Seattle

Last week I lamented the fact that so many people had jumped upon the Carolina bandwagon.

In retrospect, Arizona with a 3rd string QB was much worse than I thought they'd be and Carolina might be a little better.

Still, I am not enthusiastic about hitching my wagon to a .500 team that is travelling into Seattle to play the champs.

Laying this many points in a game featuring two run-heavy teams with excellent and/or resurgent defenses is too much for this prognosticator.

Seattle could completely dominate this game in all facets and still find themselves with a 23-6 lead with 2 minutes left, pull their starters, give up a meaningless garbage time TD, and then fail to cover.

Seattle wins and dominates, I just don't think they'll cover.

Too much spread

Dallas @ Green Bay (-5.5)


There are 3 primary questions surrounding this game that make it a difficult pick:

• Which Dallas team shows up this week?  The one that violated the Colts or the one that looked like a bunch of dipshits last week at home against Detroit?
• Is Aaron Rodgers going to be able to be Aaron Rodgers with a bum calf?
• Will the NFL allow Dallas too bring their own refs again?

My answers to these are thus:

• I care little about the uncertainty regarding which Cowboy's team shows up as I know EXACTLY which Green Bay team will show up at Lambeau Field.  The same one that always does. The one that kicks ass.
• Isn't an Aaron Rodgers who can't scramble just Peyton Manning with a stronger arm?
• Green Bay always gets to chose their own refs for home games.  Anyone else would be likely to get pelted to death with cheese wheels.

Add caption

It won't be a rout, but the Pack should win by a TD at least.


Indianapolis @ Denver (-7)

Every year at about this time, I want to pull the old "reverse-jinx" and pick against my beloved Broncos.

However, much to my chagrin, my responsibility as a prognosticator, a writer, and as a logician require that I call it like it is.

Denver is as well rested as they have been at any point since week 4.  What health issues remain with the Broncos involve the middle of the field and our ability to stuff anything that happens between the tackles and in the middle screen game.

Guess what Indianapolis sucks at?  Yep!  Running the football between the tackles.

From the Broncos, I expect a lot of nickel, a lot of pressure, and a lot of points.

Sorry Indy, it's not your time yet.

And because I'm kind of a dick, I present to Colts fans::

JINX!!!!!!

Broncos win and cover.

Frey's Playoff Picks: Wild-Card Round

And just like that, the regular season hath cometh to a close.

There were, to be fair, some unforeseen happenings:

·         San Francisco missed the Playoffs

·         Dallas played a stellar December and won the NFC East

·         The Fryguy finished above .500 against the spread (35-33)

·         I still have no idea what the hell happened to the Saints.

Generally, however, things pretty much went as per usual:

·         Denver, New England, Seattle and Green Bay won their divisions.

·         Jacksonville, Tampa, Oakland, and the Jets sucked

·         Bill Belichick mumbled through press conferences while John Fox punted on first down

·         The Bills missed the playoffs

Now that the real season is here, I intend to step up the game a bit and add a little extra reasoning to my selections.

Arizona (+6.5) @ Carolina

I am shocked at how swollen the Carolina bandwagon has become. 

The Carolina Panthers heading into week 14

4 weeks ago, the Panthers were a 3-8-1 dumpster fire and the Cardinals were a scrappy team that always seemed to find a way to win despite an obscene number of injuries to key positions.

As we head into tomorrow, the roles look to have reversed but let us not forget some important facts before we try to determine who is trending in which direction:

1)      Arizona is playing with their 3^rd string QB.  3^rd string QB’s always suck for a couple weeks because they never get any reps during training camp, pre-season, or during the season itself.  Lindley looked competent against the 49ers last week and I expect this trend to continue.

2)      Carolina’s last 4 wins came against the train wreck Saints, the worst team in the NFL (Tampa), Cleveland in Manziel’s debacle, and a losing team in Atlanta who insisted on turning the ball over repeatedly.  I bet the freaking Jets could have gone 4-0 against those clowns and probably covered more than twice.

3)      The Panthers make their living running the ball.  Arizona excels at stopping the run.

4)      Carolina is a losing team.  Sub .500 teams should not be giving up a touchdown in playoffs games.

It will be close, but if the Cards can continue to stifle the ground game and contain Greg Olson, I think they will not only cover but win outright.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)

This is a game of contradictory statistical certainties.

On one hand, Joe Flacco has never lost a wildcard game in his career.

On the other, Pittsburgh has never lost a playoff game to Baltimore.

If this were the regular season I would not touch this game but only a real candy-ass comes this far and then gets squeamish.

I am hearing a lot of talk about Le’Veon Bell being out, but as I recall, it was Big Ben throwing 6 TD’s in a 43-23 stomping that made the difference last time.

Take the home team to cover even if their fans all wave those dumbass towels around like a bunch of idiots.

The sexiest man in Pittsburgh heads into work.

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-3.5)

The history in this game is a little more one-sided than the Steelers-Ravens.

Aside from the fact that Marvin Lewis is the poor man’s Norv Turner, the story of the Andy Dalton-led Bengals has always followed the same theme:

Big Game, Big Stage, Big Disappointment.  If history is any indication, Dalton will be shaking like a Frenchman in a thunderstorm by halftime.

Ginger quarterbacks suck in the playoffs.  There are no 2-ways about it.

I’ll take the Civil War General even if he has to drag around the always underwhelming Chuck Pagano kicking and screaming into the next round.

This game is about history and so is Brigadier General Luck

Detroit @ Dallas (-6.5)

Unlike Dalton, Romo doesn’t suck in the playoffs, he usually craps the bed before they get there.

Dallas has an exemplary O-line and looks nothing like the confused dunderpates that typically stagger their way into the New Year.

My sources tell me that a ton of the smart coin is starting to come in for Detroit.

Like all the other money that ever makes its way toward Detroit, it’s just gonna end up in some crack-head’s pipe and not performing any meaningful service.

This kid got it right.  It takes more than stomping on people's injured legs and kicking a fallen man in the penis to win a road playoff game.

Dallas covers but only barely.

Season Record against the spread: 35-33