Frey's NFL Week 13 Locks of the Week

My friend Brian, whom you might remember me mentioning so glowingly last week, has been giving me the business about repeatedly going 2-2.


For anyone out there who has suffered the indignity of being heckled by Brian, you know that I must do anything to avoid its continuance.


So let it, therefore, be known that every week I go 2-2, I will lead into each NFL article by writing something nice about Brian's (and Justin Bieber's) favorite team, the Washington Capitals.


A painful elixir I know, but desperate times call for desperate measures.


To the games then!

This week, I have dubbed, "trap week," as every game on this list appears too good to be true on paper.

Confident in my superiority over those shmo's in Vegas who build huge casinos and date angry Italian showgirls, I am going to plant my foot firmly upon the ground inside each trap and tell you why I did so.


Miami (-4.5) @ New York Jets

• The Jets have proudly reported that they intend to start a guy at QB that they have already benched like 15 times this season because he sucks.
• Miami sports a stout running game and resurgent passing attack.  The Dolphins are coming off one of those "moral victories" that I typically dismiss as loser talk, but a 3 point road loss to the defending AFC champs will build confidence without creating complacency.
• The Jets have totally quit on Rex.  If Miami gets off to a fast start the crowd is going to turn on their team quicker than Italy turns on its allies during wartime.

San Diego @ Baltimore (-4.5)

• This Raven's team reminds me a little bit of the Superbowl team from 2 years back.  They found their running game, the line is protecting "Overpaid Joe Flacco", and the defense is solid if not spectacular.
• Even in victory, San Diego has looked far from robust.  I think a road game against a good team in the midst of a playoff hunt is where the wheels come off.
• Phillip Rivers is a wang.

No Caption Needed.  This guy sucks.

New Orleans @ Pittsburgh (-3)

• With all of the attention focused on the Saint's lack of explosive offensive production, few people have taken notice of just how crappy their defense is playing.

I expect to see a lot of this from the Saint's D-Coordinator this week

• Pittsburgh is back in the hunt and with a fan base full of front-runners rivaled only by the Cowboys, this will make for a raucous scene.
• New Orleans is a God-awful road team.  3 points is a laughable line.

Cincinnati (-3) @ Tampa Bay

• The greatest trap of the week by my estimation.
• One team is 7-3-1 and the other is 2-9.
• One team (a division leader with only a half-game lead over 3 other clubs) is battle-hardened and has everything in the world to fight for.  The other's season is already lost.
• Any sort of home field advantage the 2-9 team might enjoy is certain to be mitigated by sparse attendance and lackluster support from a fan-base afflicted with almost total apathy.

A day in the life of the Bucs fan

Last Week:  2-2

Season Record Against the Spread:  27-21

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Lamentations

Where did they find these chuckleheads?

I have been watching this show for a very long time and I have never seen a group of individuals play the game this long with their head so firmly planted up their own collective butts.

Rookie mistakes, poor timing, pointless (but nearly always transparent) dishonesty, and laughable self-delusion have rendered this season almost unwatchable for anyone who doesn't wish to be assaulted with incompetence.

Captain Picard watching last week's episode

One does not even need to watch closely to sense the foul reek of desperation oozing from the pours of the show’s production team as they watch the only 2 compelling people on the entire island get voted off in back to back episodes.  It has gotten so bad that they have resorted to throwing immunity idols at people in the vain hope that someone will actually do something interesting with it.

Just as the stench of desperation is offensive to the senses when you smell it on a sales person, detect it clinging to an interviewee, or run into it on a first date, it is equally as ruinous when watching some of the episodes from this season.

Natalie and Reed (players who on any other season would be considered weak at best) are about the only people left who have yet to completely underwhelm the viewing audience.

The remaining contestants either do nothing at all, or do things that are really stupid.

Keith--  I am pretty sure that he forgot that he has an idol and that it can be used to form alliances, sway votes, or save an ally.  Keith also appears completely oblivious to the fact that there is a social game to be played here. 

At some juncture, in between spitting a glob of phlegm on the ground and walking by the women on the tribe without speaking to them, Keith might consider playing some Survivor.

Keith describes his next big move during a private interview

Jon--  I cannot understand why Jon sent an ally to exile island knowing that said ally would return knowing that he had the idol.  “Nah, I’ll just send him off to starve anyway”.  The clue was so specific, it might as well have said, “Climb the penis-shaped rock and grab the idol OK Jon?” 

Still, Jeremy didn’t hound him relentlessly about it and seemed willing to let it go but was savvy enough to express his beliefs in front of Natalie.  Incredibly, Jon did about the dumbest possible thing and cannibalized his own alliance for no observable purpose.

As it stands now, everyone knows he has an idol, knows that he has betrayed every alliance at the first sign of adversity, and is sick and tired of watching him pitch woo with Miss Michigan.  To top it off, he just spent the previous week telling everyone with whom he is now aligned that they are scum. 

This guy has no plan.  If Chaos Kass looked like Harry Potter she’d be this guy.

Miss Michigan— I don’t remember her name and cannot imagine it matters.  She only has the balls to stand up to Jon if some southerner farts on her. 

Otherwise, she’ll pretty much do what she is told which is to hitch her wagon to a drowning horse.

Baylor— This chick has the worst poker face I have ever seen.  The whole time Josh was speaking to her regarding her voting intentions, she wore an expression that suggested she had just discovered that a howler monkey had pooped in her rice.

Uh....Yeah......I'll uh....Not vote for you Josh......

I’ve plied foreign telemarketers with more sincerity than Baylor appears capable of mustering when playing a game for a million bucks..

No diplomacy = unsuccessful duplicity = no million dollars.

I’m not sure what this girl would do with a million dollars anyway but I’m sure it would probably just piss me off.

Missy—I see what the producers were thinking when they brought her on the show and, in that respect, she has not disappointed.

Missy’s claim to fame is being annoying, making unconscionably stupid life choices, and eating 53 pounds of rice every day.

She has valiantly continued this trend.

Wes— The Southern Gentleman personified. 

Every season needs some meathead with the IQ of a Kleenex box who over-eats, expels gas directly upon female players, and generally just follows the lead  of anyone he perceives to have power or authority.

Wes is dumber than anyone weaker and weaker than anyone smarter.  I am almost hoping this clown makes the jury simply to hear him try and form a coherent argument.

Alec--  It never seems to matter which island they are on or what the season gimmick might be, some dipshit always forgets that the most important thing about running an alliance is not to cozy up to the people at the top, but to make the people at the bottom feel important and loved.  Unless you are allied with Jon or Chaos Kass (and apparently Missy), it is not the people at the top of your alliance that will blow up your game but the people at the bottom.

“I’m basically just a badass” Junior, was so convinced that ordering around the women on the island and acting like a misogynistic swine   was the ticket to the million bucks, that it never occurred to him that statements like “Hey, quit being a dick” and “Alec, you may be the worst human being I have ever met,” might be conceived as minor warnings.

Were it not for Flaky Jon and his incomprehensible game plan, this guy would be back in the loser’s hut bossing around the female staff.

I cannot possibly venture a guess as to what is going to happen next. 

I am not aquiver with anticipation, or even intrigued by possibilities, but it is the same uncertainty that you feel when you go into the dentist with a toothache or when your company announces layoffs.

Something is going to happen and if the happenings this season are any indication, it is going to be underwhelming.

I guess I’ll root for Natalie since she dropped an F-bomb on that Idiot Missy.  I can't imagine it matters anymore.

Frey's NFL Week 12 locks of the week

My friend Brian suggested to me that I rename this blog “The 2-2 blog”.

Screw you Brian.

Now that we've cleared that up, let’s pick some games!

Cincinnati @ Houston (-1)

In this game you have 2 very different yet mediocre teams.

For the most part, when the Texans play, people who watch the game sum it up with a resounding “meh.”

Conversely, the Bengals fluctuate between looking like the 85’ Bears and any team from Detroit circa 1966 to 1989.

Since Cincinnati looked great last week while trouncing the Saints on the road, history dictates that they will suck this week.

As surely as “Rock” beats “Scissors”, “Meh” beats “Sucks.”

Detroit @ New England (-6)

As much as I despise these guys, I am compelled to admit a grudging respect for the way they play the game.

They are always well-coached.

They always seemed pissed off.

They Cheat.

They have a stud TE who throws opposing players into NBC camera pits and says things like:

 “He was just yappin’ at me the whole time so I took him and threw him out of the club.”

Suh might like to stomp on people’s junk but nobody is more of a beast than Gronk.

Jacksonville (+14) @ Indianapolis

I don’t care where they are playing or what the records are.  Nobody in the NFL, and I mean NOBODY, comes into a game at 6-4 and lays 14 points.

I have no idea what the final outcome of this game might be, but I cannot sit idly by and watch people take the Colts.

Consider this my public service of the week.

Arizona @ Seattle (-5)

I believe it was Hank Hill who said “When it comes down between the brain and the heart, don’t do what your heart says.  Your heart is your brain’s employee.”

My brain says that Arizona is 9-1, has a great defense, and is the best coached team in football.   Surely they will cover the spread at the very least right?

My heart, on the other hand, tells me that Seattle knows that they have to show up big this week or they are out of the playoffs.

Sorry Mr. Hill, I’m going with the gut this week and taking the ‘Hawks.

Last Week:  2-2

Season Record against the Spread:  25-19

Frey's NFL Week 11 locks of the week

It has to be said that going 2-2 for all but 2 weeks of the season is an accomplishment in and of itself.

Since only the mediocre are always at their best, achieving greater glories is impossible give the last few weeks.

Still, I feel compelled to talk some football so let’s have it shall we?

Cincinnati @ New Orleans (-6)

While I am loathe to pick any 4-5 team and then give up 6 points for the honor of doing so, I just think that the Bengals cannot possibly have any self-respect left after getting worked over by the Browns.

The Bengal's players just before the game against the Browns last week

Detroit @ Arizona (-1)

This week’s Admiral Akbar Special.

Arizona is 8-1.  Their only loss came on the road against the 7-2 Broncos and it was close until they needed to put in their 3^rd string rookie QB. They have an aggressive defense that forces skittish QB’s into bad decisions, are playing at home, and have the coach of the year captaining the ship.

Conversely, Detroit is the worst road team of the last decade, has a QB that loves doing stupid things when under pressure, and the franchise has a history of wilting under the pressure that accompanies competence.

I’m in on the Red Birds.

Oakland @ San Diego (-8)

In this contest, there are 2 teams coming off of humiliating routs.

One of them is the Raiders and the other one isn't.

Take the team that isn't Oakland.

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (-5)

The normally cynical and savvy Eagles fan base is salivating over the Sanchize like a gaggle of tweens over a life-sized cardboard cut-out of Justin Bieber.

The fact that Sanchez had a reasonably good game against a depleted and demoralized Carolina team that was coming off of 3 straight losses (and tie in which they made Andy Dalton look like Dan Marino) is, apparently, immaterial.

There is absolutely no way in the 7 hells that I am going to take “Butt Fumble” on the road against a surging Packers team. 

Really Philly?  Really?

After getting throttled by The Pack, Philly fans can go back to booing Santa Claus and developmentally disabled children.

Last Week:  2-2

Season Record against the Spread:  23-17

Frey’s Locks: Week 10 NFL picks

Last week’s 2-2 record confirmed 3 things for all of us:

1. Giving up more than 10 points on a bet in today’s NFL is not a good idea.
2. The Steelers were obviously wearing their Bumblebee  Man  jerseys underneath their road whites.
3. Phillip Rivers is a wang.

Miami @ Detroit (-2.5)

Despite Miami’s good old fashioned arse-kicking of the Chargers last week (for which I am personally very grateful) I think both the wise-guys and the public are overrating the Dolphins this week.

Megatron and Reggie H.W. Bush are back and healthy after the bye week and everyone knows that the Dolphin QB struggles when away from the friendly confines of South Beach.

Given that Detroit tops any sane person’s list of “cesspool cities”, Tannehill will probably play like the poor man’s Tim Couch.



One of these pictures is of Hiroshima in late 1945.  The other is of Detroit earlier this year.  Can you tell which is which?   Me neither.

 

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-3.5)

It is tough for any competitor to constantly watch their famously mobile QB take a crap-load of stupid sacks and still throw a bunch of ridiculous interceptions.

These poor SOBs on the 49ers have to watch their QB take dumb sacks and throw picks all the while getting yelled at by that butthole, Jim Harbaugh.

 

I think the wheels are finally coming off in the city by the bay.

 

This has nothing to do with my pick.  I just love this picture.

 

Pittsburgh (-4) @ NY Jets

This game is most definitely the “Admiral Akbar Game of the Week.”

The Steelers are killing good teams by throwing the ball around like last year’s Broncos.  

Meanwhile, the Jets have one of (if not THE) worst secondaries in football and are only slightly better than awful on offense even with a dinged-up 47 year old Michael Vick at the helm.

I have a feeling that Vegas knows something I don’t here but I’m gonna jump into this trap with both feet.


Chicago @ Green Bay (-7)

As most of you probably know by now, I hate giving up anything more than 6 ½.

 

But then I remember that Jay Cutler is still the QB of the Bears and he loses games in Lambeau by an average of 247 points and I feel pretty good about laying the 7.

 

I doubt that getting screamed at by Brandon Marshall is going to faze Mr. Franchise here.  

 

Yep.  This guy gets paid 19 million more per year than Russell Wilson

 

Season record against the spread:  21-15 

Survivor 29: San Juan Del Sur: Blood Versus Water. Rice Rice Baby

Somehow, I feel let down.

When I saw Jeff Probst strutting up the beach schlepping a big ol’ bag of rice on his shoulder I gleefully anticipated some serious fireworks.

Instead, Jeff just kind of bitched them out and then took their pillows.

Somewhere off in the distance, Nelson Muntz can be heard shouting, "Ha-Ha!"

Granted, I am only privy to the edited film and am not sure what, if anything, occurred behind the scenes, but why did those candy-asses let this DB saunter into their camp, drop a bag of plain white rice on the ground, and steal their crap?

Grow some balls you sissies!  Jeremy the Constantly Agitated Fireman was the only guy on the island who wanted to stand fast and, for that, he has my respect.

The tribe needed to tell Probst to bugger off for the following obvious reasons:

1)      Because of the damn liberals, TV producers hardly ever allow people to starve to death on their reality shows any more.

A picture of camp just after the completion of Survivor Guatemala 10 years ago

2)      Starving people are lethargic people.  Lethargic people make for crappy television.  Crappy TV makes for bad ratings.  Bravely refuse the food and CBS would be serving you free kebobs before sundown.

3)      With the numbers as they are, the merge is certain to be imminent.  Eat roots, tree bark, howler monkeys, whatever.  You are going to want that tarp pretty damn bad when the typhoon hits at some point in the next 3 weeks.

Winner of the week:

It can be none other than Jeremy the Disgruntled Fireman.  Not only did he gently and gracefully talk John Rocker’s girlfriend out of jumping the proverbial bridge but in doing so exhibited that he has a solid grasp of game mechanics.  It is not easy to mask one’s disdain and display exemplary diplomacy when some a-hole just stole your blanket, tarp, and comfy pillows.

Jeremy is able to keep it together in front of his tribe despite the fact that he wants to bludgeon each and every one of them with a tire iron.

Even more important (in my view) is the fact that Jeremy continues to show a fire in his belly.  Not the type of white-hot flame that quickly burns out upon consuming everything around it that might provide fuel (Phillip the Specialist, Russell/Brandon Hantz, James the grave digger) but the type of slow burn that can be nurtured and sustained throughout the duration of the show.

Loser of the Week:

This may come as something of a shock, but I believe that Reed played the crappiest game this week.

Reed didn't melt down (Julie) and won a huge meal for his tribe (who just traded their only means of staying dry for a bag of white rice 3 days before a merge), but every moment subsequent to when Jeff shouted, “Hunahpu Wins Reward!” was mishandled to say the least.

a)      He decided to send Julia (ostracized due to her association with the departed John Rocker) to Exile Island with the ridiculous assertion that it will allow her to “prove to John Rocker” how tough she is. 

Saying crap like this might work in the boardroom, but here it just makes you look like an arsehole.

"No, seriously Julie.  Head right in there and seize the opportunity  to prove yourself! Damn, am I a great guy or what?!"

He then decided to revoke his initial decision (albeit uncomfortably) when Natalie/Nadiya offered to go in her stead.

This might work when compromising with an angry spouse, but here it just makes you look like a flighty and confused coward with no strategy.

b)      The editing (and Jeremy’s observation) suggests that Reed spends the bulk of his time at camp being all lovey on Josh.

It is never wise (regardless of one's sexual preference) to overtly display affection for another player much less to do it constantly.  It is even dumber on a tribe filled with people who have watched their loved ones get unceremoniously kicked off the island.

With the merge coming tonight, so cometh the power rankings on next week’s installment.

Stay Thirsty my Friends!