And then there were 4…..
It is truly a sad commentary upon the times in which we live that I feel great pleasure at having gone 2-2 in my picks last week.
Still, I’m giddy as a schoolgirl as my beloved Broncos have advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the heady days of Jake Plummer and Al Wilson.
For many people who live in crappy loser cities such as Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, or Houston, the reality that the 4 favorites from the beginning of the year represent each conference in the championships this week has to be something of a letdown.
But for those of us with hearts made of gridiron and the souls of poets, the fact that extended excellence has been rewarded in this postseason only fuels our insatiable need for top-notch football.
Time for the picks:
New England @ Denver (-4.5)
Reasons Denver will win:
1) It may lack the feel of the old Mile High, but last I checked the home field is still at 5280 feet. Most Patriots live on fishing boats, eating chowder during the season so they will certainly be breathing hard by the 2nd half.
2) Manning will have a cooperative crowd, ensuring silence in order to make changes at the line. Belichick may try to disguise things up a bit on ‘D’ but Peyton gets the final say in this environment.
3) Too many offensive weapons. They say Belichick likes to take the one thing you like to do and take it away. OK then, you scheme to remove Julius Thomas from the equation. Maybe you try and mitigate DT on the outside with your best corner. That leaves only Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Knowshawn Moreno unaccounted for. Yeah. Good luck with that.
4) The weather forecast is for spring-like temperatures and little to no wind. The team with the better passing game benefits from kind elements.
5) When these teams last played, Wes Welker was in his first game back from a concussion, Julius Thomas was out, Orlando Franklin was banged up, Manning’s ankles looked like bowling pins, Champ couldn’t go, and DRC left the game with a shoulder injury. Offensively, we are a MUCH healthier team going into this game.
6) The Patriots haven’t played a road playoff game in 7 years. Moreover, they are a very pedestrian 4-4 away from Gillette Stadium this year. Add this to the fact that the NFL schedulers make us play in Boston every %$#@ing year and you have an environment that will likely be uncomfortable and unfamiliar with the visitors. Brady can’t win in Denver in games not involving Tim Tebow.
7) The Patriots have also been beset by injuries, losing 3 pro-bowlers from the roster they fielded at the beginning of the year. This type of attrition is tough to overcome.
Reasons New England will win:
1) While it is certain that the Broncos are far healthier on offense, defensively they have been decimated by the loss of Von Miller, Derick Wolfe, Kevin Vickerson, and Chris Harris Jr.
2) Last time the teams played, Brady abused Denver’s back-up corners for 31 second half points. With Harris out and a hobbled pass-rush, guess who gets all day to throw against back-up corners? Give you hint. He wears Uggs.
3) All year long, this season has been viewed by many as a referendum on Manning’s legacy. Brady has 3 rings and a 10-4 record against Manning-led teams. I think the pressure sits securely on the Broncos this week.
4) Bill Belichick has a strong resume of creative game-plans and playoff mastery. John Fox takes a knee on 1st and 10 with 34 seconds left and 2 time outs with Payton %$#&ing Manning as his QB in playoff games.
5) I don’t think Danny Amendola is hurt yet and Julian Edelman is now one of the premier floppers in the league. Look for these guys to put on a masterful theatrical performance so as to obtain many a pass-interference call.
6) LaGarret Blount looks like the second coming of Jim Brown this post-season. With Kevin Vickerson out, Denver may be hard-pressed to keep the Patriots from mounting momentum killing drives to take the crowd and energy out of the game.
7) They cheat.
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| Bill Belichick and Tom Brady discuss strategy during a time out |
Prediction:
This is the NFL in 2014. Offense rules the day. When I look at 2 battle-tested teams, both riddled with injury and captained by 2 of the game’s best all-time QB’s, I am forced to defer to the team with more options. NewEngland may have a slightly better defense and running game, but nobody has the weapons boasted by the Donkeys. I like Denver 40-28.
San Francisco @ Seattle (-3.5)
Reasons Seattle will win:
1) The 12th man. Any gathering of fans that can cause earthquakes during a game must be given their due. Must be all that coffee…..
2) Defense. There are good defenses, and there are the Seahawks. No matter who the opponent or what the conditions might be, these guys give Seattle a very good chance to win even if the offense craps the bed.
3) Beast Mode. If things bog down into a slug-fest, I’ll put my money on Marshawn Lynch over a 52 year old Frank Gore any day. A field position battle favors the Hawks.
4) Confidence. Every time San Francisco goes to Seattle they get their asses kicked. This is the order of things.
5) Russell Wilson’s deep ball. In games featuring great defenses, you have to be able to take advantage of the home run ball. Wilson has one of the nicest long-balls in the game and it may be the difference in a war of attrition.
6) The weather. It’s Seattle. It’s probably gonna rain. A rainy slushy day in Century Link Stadium mitigates some of the disadvantage the Seahawks have at the skill positions.
7) Hatred. Seattle hates these guys. Badly. The Niner’s and their fans are constantly reminding their little upstart brothers to the north who wears the rings and whose only trip to the finals involved getting their asses kicked in a Superbowl so boring that I actually stopped watching it to help my buddy clean the dishes.
Reasons San Francisco will win:
1) Simply put, they are playing better. San Francisco is 4 points away from a 15 game winning streak. I know recent scores might suggest parity here, but the Niners have looked solid against some pretty challenging teams and circumstances. Seattle (particularly their offense) has looked like poop.
2) Playoff experience. San Francisco has been to an NFC Championship and a Superbowl in the last 2 years and was a goal-line stand away from hoisting the trophy in 2013. They are hungry and know how to get it done.
3) Skill position players. Bolden, Crabtree, and Vernon Davis are big, strong, and experienced players with a ton of incentive given how everyone (including the Seahawks’ defensive backs themselves) is talking about how great the opposing secondary is.
4) Seattle’s receivers suck. With Percy Harvin likely out, they suck even worse. Given the blubberputts across from them, San Francisco can put 10 men in the box and still feel pretty good that no one is going to make a big play.
5) Revenge factor. Eventually, someone on this team is going to get tired of getting their butts kicked in the Pacific Northwest and actually do something about it. I expect the Niner’s to be very focused for this game.
6) No pressure. If San Francisco comes out a little sluggish, there are not going to be 70,000 frightened, fanatical fans in the stands getting so uptight you can’t force a greased BB up their butts. The Niners can survive a small early deficit, whereas if Seattle comes out slow, the entire city is likely to go into panic mode and start self-immolating themselves in the streets.
7) Jim Harbaugh is a butthole. That’s about all I have to say about that.
Prediction:
This game is likely to be very close, particularly if the weather turns sour. In today’s NFL, an offense can only do so much with such a dearth of weapons in the passing game as Seattle currently suffers and their recent offensive struggles appear to bear this out. I firmly believe that Pete Carroll needs to call a slew of plays designed specifically to get Wilson into open space or they may struggle to score in the double digits.
Still, 10 points may be enough to win with that ‘D’.
I definitely would not give up 3.5 points to anybody in this game.
Take San Fran to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset:
San Francisco wins 17-16.
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