Frey's Superbowl Breakdown and Pick

I am a Broncos fan. 

My first memory of the NFL is our gut-wrenching loss to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XII in1978.  The Craig Morton-led Broncos set a record for baboonery that still stands today by committing 8 turnovers leading to our defeat at the hands of those a-holes from Dallas.

All Cowboys fans are like this guy.  All of them.

 I cried like I had just found out my favorite stuffed animal was actually a Soviet spy and attempted to stave off a long, dark night by engaging in a dismal game of pinball with my older brother. 

I had just turned 5.

After what seemed like an eternity, we went back to the Promised Land of Super Bowl XXII only to get spanked by an inferior Giant’s team whose pedestrian QB (Phil Simms) completed like 137% of his passes.  We ran into a hot goalie but the loss still stung.

Not to worry though, getting to the Super Bowl is easy as hell and the Broncos were on track to bring home the city’s first championship after jumping to a 10-0 lead over the Redskins in Super Bowl XXIII.  And then my heart got ripped out of my arse as a journeyman RB named Timmy Smith torched our Defense for 204 yards before getting dumped from the league and becoming the 14^th best player in my brother’s flag football league .

I gathered what was left of my self-respect and cautiously made my way to a relative’s house to watch us play the 49ers 2 years later in Super Bowl XXIV.  Suffice it to say, I left that game with the stunned look of a man who had just been released from prison after 75 years in the pokey.

 

When we got punked by Jacksonville at home in 1997, I had suffered enough trauma during the vital, formative years of my psychological and emotional development that I slinked into a party for Super Bowl XXXII like a puppy who knew he was about to be kicked because some cat took a crap on the countertop.  I was Ted from Scrubs.

Me just before the Super Bowl against the Packers.  That is my real hair.

 

At no point in that game against the Packers would my mind allow me to think we would win.  It wasn’t in my makeup.  We get our ass kicked in Super Bowls.  Always.  Absolutely and without exception. 

When that QB from Green Bay who texts pictures of his dong to chicks threw the final incompletion of the game and I watched my beloved team engage in one of the most heartfelt celebrations seen in this world or any other, I collapsed, exhausted, onto the couch and simply enjoyed breathing air that was free of the bitter and acrid stench of shame.

Even the following year, against a clearly overmatched Falcons team that we ended up wrecking, I talked myself into expecting disaster.

What I am trying to say is this:

No true Denver native and Bronco fan who spent the bulk of their childhood in the 70’s and/or 80’s can enter a Super Bowl and not sense the specter of death upon their hearts. 

You may want them to win.  You may even think they will win based upon whatever logical approach you opt to employ.  You can tell your friends that we’ll kill our foes, you can give your money to the bookie or casino, but somewhere, deep inside, you are scared.  Some wounds cut too deep to heal even with time and salve. 

That is why making a prediction on this game is so difficult.  All humans enjoy the unique and troubling ability to talk themselves into whatever they wish to believe.  Stats, much like beauty, are in the eye of the beholder. 

Should I make sure that I tilt the scales a bit towered Seattle given my immense desire for Denver to win?  Or should I tilt it more towered Denver given the emotional scarring I still carry from 2 decades of beatings? 

Is Seattle’s season-long excellence indicative of who they really are or do the last 4-5 weeks of <meh> play on offense and special teams suggest that they capped too early?

Perhaps if I channeled my inner Richard Sherman and ranted at my boss it would help restore some confidence and even the bias scales:

“I’m the best Senior Analyst in Telecom!  You try me with a sorry sales rep like Monica-that’s what you gon’ get!  Don’t you ever talk about the best!”

 

I am a Broncos fan.

And now it is time to pick the game:

Seattle vs. Denver (-2)

Matchups.  Matchups my friends! 

It doesn’t matter how good your offense is compared to the other guy’s offense.  What matters is how good your offense is against the other guy’s defense.

For this final and most important of all picks, we shall examine the game from the perspective of matchups:

Broncos Passing Offense vs Seahawks Passing Defense:

While it is true that Denver has not yet faced a secondary and line-backing corps  as deep and talented as Seattle’s, it is equally true that the Seahawks have not yet faced a team boasting near the number and quality of weapons employed by the Broncos. 

Some may cite San Francisco as an example of a loaded team, but most people who actually watch football know that DT/Decker/Welker/JT/Moreno catching balls from Manning is far greater a challenge than Crabtree/Boldin/some nobody/Vernon Davis/Frank Gore catching balls from an inconsistent Kaepernick.

Futhermore, I have no reason to suspect that Manning will not get the 2.54387659 seconds he needs each snap to find the open guy.

Verdict:  Slight Edge – Denver

Seattle Passing Offense vs Broncos Passing Defense:

It really sucks that Chris Harris is out.  That missing piece, I believe, hurts us worse than Von Miller’s absence.  Fortunately, Seattle’s receivers are not Jerry Rice and John Taylor and their Quarterback is not nearly as skilled throwing the ball as either of the last 2 QB’s faced by the broncos D.

Still, Seattle only needs a couple big plays in the passing game this Sunday to be right where they want to be and Wilson can throw a nice deep ball. 

Denver rated 26^th against the pass this season and has had some difficulty with QB’s mobile enough to extend plays.

Verdict:  Push

Broncos Rushing Offense vs Seattle’s Rushing Defense:

It is fortunate for Denver that the strength of Seattle’s defense does not revolve around stopping the run.

Conversely, it is equally fortunate for Seattle that the strength of Denver’s offense is not running the ball.

There have been flashes of excellence in the Bronco running attack but let’s be honest here.  If we aren’t passing effectively then the run game isn’t going anywhere.

Verdict:  Push

Seahawks Rushing Offense vs Broncos Rushing Defense:

Excepting a brief glitch against San Diego in Week 14, Denver has been extremely stout against the run.  In fact, if the Seahawks’ offensive game plan consists of throwing Lynch into a pile of orange then this will be an arse kicking.

But should Pete Carroll get a little crazy and start running Russell Wilson around like a mad man the balance can and should tilt toward the Seahawks.

Seattle is accustomed to playing against excellent defenses (San Francisco, Arizona, New Orleans) and has still been able to move it on the ground.  Throw in a little scramble and I think they have the edge here.

Verdict:  Slight Edge Seattle

Special Teams

Both teams have very capable return games and skilled kicking units.  While the Broncos do have an edge with Colquitt and Prater, Seattle’s returners are less likely to:

1)       Have the ball hit them in the head and bounce into the hands of the other team

2)      Trip on their own wang when nobody is within 10 yards and peter Pan into the dirt like a freaking dart.

Yep.  He's done this twice now.

 

Verdict:  Slight Edge Seattle

Intangibles

In Florida, there is some Manatee that picks Super Bowl winners and is on a 6 game winning streak.  This year, it picked my beloved Broncos to win.

Sadly, however, there is a gorilla in some Utah zoo named Eli that is also on a six game winning streak who happened to pick the Seahawks.

Since I cannot rely on those buttholes in the animal kingdom to provide any consistent direction, then I’ll have to look elsewhere for inspiration.

1)      All other things being equal, take the team with the Hall of Fame QB.

2)      The weather (at least for now) looks to favor the Broncos.

3)      While last year’s John Fox takes a knee on 1^st and 10 with 45 seconds left and 2 time outs left, post-Open Heart Surgery John Fox goes for it on 4^th and 29 at his own 6 because he’s a crazy badass who embraces the spirit of attack!

4)      Pete Carroll is keeping his team loose and confident but Sherman and Lynch are drawing a ton of unwanted distraction to their team be either saying too much or too little.

Verdict: Slight Edge Denver
 

On paper, this game looks close.  VERY close. 

I didn’t survive the Carter administration and the first 4 Super Bowls by being an optimist.  Part of me is very worried here but it really comes down to this:

Seattle has a damn good defense, but Denver has the greatest offense of ALL TIME.

Broncos 27 

Seattle 23

 

The Week of Champions: Frey's NFL Picks

And then there were 4…..

It is truly a sad commentary upon the times in which we live that I feel great pleasure at having gone 2-2 in my picks last week.

Still, I’m giddy as a schoolgirl as my beloved Broncos have advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since the heady days of Jake Plummer and Al Wilson.

For many people who live in crappy loser cities such as Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, or Houston, the reality that the 4 favorites from the beginning of the year represent each conference in the championships this week has to be something of a letdown.

But for those of us with hearts made of gridiron and the souls of poets, the fact that extended excellence has been rewarded in this postseason only fuels our insatiable need for top-notch football.

Time for the picks:

New England @ Denver (-4.5)

Reasons Denver will win:

1)      It may lack the feel of the old Mile High, but last I checked the home field is still at 5280 feet.  Most Patriots live on fishing boats, eating chowder during the season so they will certainly be breathing hard by the 2^nd half.

2)      Manning will have a cooperative crowd, ensuring silence in order to make changes at the line.  Belichick may try to disguise things up a bit on ‘D’ but Peyton gets the final say in this environment.

3)      Too many offensive weapons.  They say Belichick likes to take the one thing you like to do and take it away.  OK then, you scheme to remove Julius Thomas from the equation.  Maybe you try and mitigate DT on the outside with your best corner.  That leaves only Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Knowshawn Moreno unaccounted for.  Yeah.  Good luck with that.

 

4)      The weather forecast is for spring-like temperatures and little to no wind.   The team with the better passing game benefits from kind elements.

5)      When these teams last played, Wes Welker was in his first game back from a concussion, Julius Thomas was out, Orlando Franklin was banged up, Manning’s ankles looked like bowling pins, Champ couldn’t go, and DRC left the game with a shoulder injury.  Offensively, we are a MUCH healthier team going into this game.

6)      The Patriots haven’t played a road playoff game in 7 years.  Moreover, they are a very pedestrian 4-4 away from Gillette Stadium this year.  Add this to the fact that the NFL schedulers make us play in Boston every %$#@ing year and you have an environment that will likely be uncomfortable and unfamiliar with the visitors.  Brady can’t win in Denver in games not involving Tim Tebow.

7)      The Patriots have also been beset by injuries, losing 3 pro-bowlers from the roster they fielded at the beginning of the year.  This type of attrition is tough to overcome.

Reasons New England will win:

1)      While it is certain that the Broncos are far healthier on offense, defensively they have been decimated by the loss of Von Miller, Derick Wolfe, Kevin Vickerson, and Chris Harris Jr. 

2)      Last time the teams played, Brady abused Denver’s back-up corners for 31 second half points.  With Harris out and a hobbled pass-rush, guess who gets all day to throw against back-up corners?  Give you hint.  He wears Uggs.

3)      All year long, this season has been viewed by many as a referendum on Manning’s legacy.  Brady has 3 rings and a 10-4 record against Manning-led teams.  I think the pressure sits securely on the Broncos this week.

4)      Bill Belichick has a strong resume of creative game-plans and playoff mastery.  John Fox takes a knee on 1^st and 10 with 34 seconds left and 2 time outs with Payton %$#&ing Manning as his QB in playoff games.

5)      I don’t think Danny Amendola is hurt yet and Julian Edelman is now one of the premier floppers in the league.  Look for these guys to put on a masterful theatrical performance so as to obtain many a pass-interference call.

6)      LaGarret Blount looks like the second coming of Jim Brown this post-season.  With Kevin Vickerson out, Denver may be hard-pressed to keep the Patriots from mounting momentum killing drives to take the crowd and energy out of the game.

7)      They cheat.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady discuss strategy during a time out

 

Prediction:

This is the NFL in 2014.  Offense rules the day.  When I look at 2 battle-tested teams, both riddled with injury and captained by 2 of the game’s best all-time QB’s, I am forced to defer to the team with more options.  NewEngland may have a slightly better defense and running game, but nobody has the weapons boasted by the Donkeys.  I like Denver 40-28.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-3.5)

Reasons Seattle will win:

1)      The 12^th man.  Any gathering of fans that can cause earthquakes during a game must be given their due.  Must be all that coffee…..

2)      Defense.  There are good defenses, and there are the Seahawks.  No matter who the opponent or what the conditions might be, these guys give Seattle a very good chance to win even if the offense craps the bed.

3)      Beast Mode.  If things bog down into a slug-fest, I’ll put my money on Marshawn Lynch over a 52 year old Frank Gore any day.  A field position battle favors the Hawks.

 

4)      Confidence.  Every time San Francisco goes to Seattle they get their asses kicked.  This is the order of things.

5)      Russell Wilson’s deep ball.  In games featuring great defenses, you have to be able to take advantage of the home run ball.  Wilson has one of the nicest long-balls in the game and it may be the difference in a war of attrition.

6)      The weather.  It’s Seattle.  It’s probably gonna rain.  A rainy slushy day in Century Link Stadium mitigates some of the disadvantage the Seahawks have at the skill positions.

7)      Hatred.  Seattle hates these guys.  Badly.  The Niner’s and their fans are constantly reminding their little upstart brothers to the north who wears the rings and whose only trip to the finals involved getting their asses kicked in a Superbowl so boring that I actually stopped watching it to help my buddy clean the dishes.

Reasons San Francisco will win:

1)      Simply put, they are playing better.  San Francisco is 4 points away from a 15 game winning streak.  I know recent scores might suggest parity here, but the Niners have looked solid against some pretty challenging teams and circumstances.  Seattle (particularly their offense) has looked like poop.

2)      Playoff experience.  San Francisco has been to an NFC Championship and a Superbowl in the last 2 years and was a goal-line stand away from hoisting the trophy in 2013.  They are hungry and know how to get it done. 

3)      Skill position players.  Bolden, Crabtree, and Vernon Davis are big, strong, and experienced players with a ton of incentive given how everyone (including the Seahawks’ defensive backs themselves) is talking about how great the opposing secondary is.

4)      Seattle’s receivers suck.  With Percy Harvin likely out, they suck even worse.  Given the blubberputts across from them, San Francisco can put 10 men in the box and still feel pretty good that no one is going to make a big play.

5)      Revenge factor.  Eventually, someone on this team is going to get tired of getting their butts kicked in the Pacific Northwest and actually do something about it.  I expect the Niner’s to be very focused for this game.

6)      No pressure.  If San Francisco comes out a little sluggish, there are not going to be 70,000 frightened,  fanatical fans in the stands getting so uptight you can’t force a greased BB up their butts. The Niners can survive a small early deficit, whereas if Seattle comes out slow, the entire city is likely to go into panic mode and start self-immolating themselves in the streets.

7)      Jim Harbaugh is a butthole.  That’s about all I have to say about that.

 

Prediction:

This game is likely to be very close, particularly if the weather turns sour.  In today’s NFL, an offense can only do so much with such a dearth of weapons in the passing game as Seattle currently suffers and their recent offensive struggles appear to bear this out.  I firmly believe that Pete Carroll needs to call a slew of plays designed specifically to get Wilson into open space or they may struggle to score in the double digits.  

Still, 10 points may be enough to win with that ‘D’.

I definitely would not give up 3.5 points to anybody in this game.

Take San Fran to cover the spread and possibly pull off the upset:

San Francisco wins 17-16.

 

Frey's NFL Picks: Divisional Playoffs

I told you I wouldn’t do worse than last year right? 

True to my word, I opted for “just as shitty” instead of worse. 

Don’t say Frey isn’t a man of integrity.

Let’s pick em!

New Orleans @ Seattle (-8.5)

This game represents my “historian’s dilemma” of the week.

On one hand, the recent past has shown that teams coming from tough road wins in the wild card round acquit themselves extremely well the next week against bye-week teams.

On the other hand, Seattle just bitch-slapped this same Saints team all over the Emerald City a month ago.

Furthermore, the Saints are pretty banged up after their game in Philly and all of Seattle’s dudes have had an entire extra week to go on another PED binge.

Still, I’ll take the better Coach, the better QB, and 8 ½ points any day now that the playoffs are here.

Indianapolis @ New England (-7.5)

God help me I hate New England.  I can’t stand their coach.  I hate the way Bostonian’s speak as well as their their collective provincialism.  I am un-fond of the way that they cheat at everything all the time and don’t think their clam chowder is half as good as advertised.

One thing I do like about the Patriots is the fact that even when decimated by injuries and crippled with a QB who wears Uggs to work, they keep winning games.

A January home game is usually an automatic win for these dirt bags but the loss of Gronk kills these guys.

When your most dangerous offensive weapon is named “Julian Edelman” I think your #%$&ed.

The Colts survived a scare they shouldn’t have and are playing on house money now.  I like the Horseshoe to cover and potentially pull off a shocker.

San Francisco @ Carolina (+1)

This one is a tough pick.  The 49ers looked like crap the last time these guys played in San Francisco.  In fact, the 49ers sullied the good name of “crap” that last game.

Now they need to fly across the United States to play a game on the east coast at what would be 8:00 AM Pacific time.

Essentially, this means the 49er players will need to get up at like 5:00 AM to start game preparations and then play an incredibly physical team before most of them would typically have rolled over their mistresses to get out of bed in the morning.

Seattle got jobbed last year the same way and came out completely flat against a pretty candy-assed Atlanta squad.

All that having been said, I trust Cam Newton in a playoff game about as much as I trust that kid in the commercial who aspires to be Cam’s mom’s favorite player.

Niners win and since the spread is “1”, that means they cover also.

San Diego @ Denver (-9)

I want to do the reverse jinx.  Ye Gods do I want to do the reverse jinx.  However, I just cannot see any scenario (given the fact that they beat us at home once already and considering what happened last year) that the Broncos will not come out and make a statement.

San Diego can run the ball.  Phyllis Rivers is the most accurate passer in the league.  The Chargers’ D-Line pushed the Bengal’s front seven around like shuffleboard pucks and Manning runs like he has cement in his shoes.

All the pieces are there for not only a close game but a disastrous defeat for Denver.

However, after last season’s fiasco, there is absolutely no way this coaching staff comes out ill-prepared.

The weather is going to be in the mid-forties by the end of the game and the Bronco’s offensive output will not be much less.

 

Fryguy's Post Season NFL Picks

“Failure is unimportant. It takes courage to make a fool of yourself.”
--Charlie Chaplin

Subsequent to last year’s fiasco regarding my playoff predictions, nary a day passed that I would not panic at the thought of placing a wager.

Whatever respect I might once have had for my football acumen was lost in a noxious cloud of 2 wins, 8 losses, and 1 tie.

My deflated prognostication prowess became painfully public and obvious following a conversation I had just prior to last year’s Superbowl with my then 6-year old daughter while in the midst of a painful 2-7-1 stretch against the spread.

Kira:  Who do you think is going to win tonight Daddy?

Me:  I like San Francisco to win sweetie.  They are the guys in the gold helmets.

Kira:  I’m not sure why, but I think the other guys will win…..

Well I’m not one to let a 6-year old girl have the last laugh on me so I’m gonna give it another go this year to your delight and my chagrin.

 

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-1.5)

I cannot see any compelling reason to not place my faith in the team that travelled into Kansas City and beat the Chefs’ butts.

I might change my mind if KC opts to play all those pesky back-ups that almost punked the Chargers out of the playoffs last week, but I can’t shake the feeling that those 8 or 9 Chiefs selected to the Pro Bowl would never want to risk missing out on a free trip to Hawaii just for the chance to travel to Denver to get their ass kicked.

Indy covers this one at home and earns a rematch with their old QB in Mile High.

 

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5)

There are 3 factors in play that make me favor the Eagles:

1)      Philly is the healthiest team in the NFL right now and has won 7 of their last 8 games.

2)      New Orleans plays like a bunch of wangs when away from the Superdome

3)      The weather looks like it may be kind of crappy and I like me the team that runs for 200 yards a game.

I think the Eagles win and cover, earning the right to get force-fed their own butts in Seattle next week.

 

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7)

I actually remember the last time these guys met in a playoff game.  The Dan Fouts-led Chargers got whacked 27-7 in a historically cold game in Ohio.  I think it was also the first season the Bengals wore those dumbass helmets.

The helmets are the same and Phil Rivers is kind of a really dickish version of Dan Fouts so I think the results will be about the same.

If San Diego needed to cheat and get a few lucky calls and bounces in their home stadium to beat a bunch of second teamers from KC then I think a frigid road game against the Bengals’ Defense will be more than the bolts can handle.

Cincy wins by double digits here I suspect.

 

San Francisco (-2.5) at Green Bay

It may not always pan out, but I’ve always found that taking the better team when the spread is below a field goal is good policy.

The Niners are just 4 points away from a 13 game winning streak while the Packers needed a Hail Mary to overcome the worst defense in the NFL to have a winning record..

The Pack is horribly dinged up on defense and even if the weather sucks, it’s not like the folks who play in Candlestick don’t know anything about windy and crappy.

Sorry Pack, Baltimore already used up all the “Win a game you shouldn’t on a bullshit Hail Mary pass and then go on to be world champs” Karma.

Look for the Niners to cover but allow Green Bay some garbage time points.