Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Final Episode Edition

I don’t quite know how to express my feelings in regards to this season of Survivor.

I mean, I liked the extra strategic element of the whole “loved one” thing.

It was nice to see some reasonably normal people compete for the coin.

Colton got wiped out early and, mercifully, we did not need to have our TV screens polluted with this arsehole for more than a couple weeks.

Every season I lament the fact that the producers of Survivor seem more interested in selecting people who will drum up some drama than finding compelling or intelligent individuals with normal jobs or spouses who are not famous.

This most recent band of castaways seemed to be a bit less contrived but it just didn’t seem to work out the way I had hoped.

In the mid-late game, nobody really seized the stage and became someone to either root for or despise.

Tyson is clever.  Hayden is, well, clever.  Monica and Laura M, while decidedly un-clever, are great in challenges.  Ciera is kind of sneaky I guess.  Gervase rotates between quiet wisdom and foolish yammering.  Tina, while pretty spry for a woman of 60, reeks of mediocrity in every aspect of the game.

There’s no Yul (social genius) or Ozzy (challenge God) or Russell (sneaky bastard) or Cochran (level-headed master of timing) to either admire or hold in contempt.  The remaining players have some qualities in various quantities but nobody who really jumps out as dominant or deserving.

This season was more like a middleweight fight between unranked and unknown opponents than an epic battle of giants.

Someone is going to win this season, but I doubt their game will ever be considered the stuff of legends.

Because someone has to win, I am duty bound to predict who it will be and why.

 

Group #1:  The People with no Chance

Tina—

With her unconscionably boring daughter out of the game, someone has to assume the mantle of “non-entity”.  Tina made no moves of any import and did very little to influence the game. 

Since Katie was the only person left on the island aside from Ciera who she could beat in a challenge, her odds of getting back to the game are almost nil.  Even if she does, nobody is going to give her another million bucks.

Monica—

Like most sinewy 90-pound women, Monica did a pretty good job at challenges geared toward sinewy 90-pound women. 

While she can claim to have acquitted herself valiantly in challenges, the truth of the matter is that Monica will have had to violate way too many people in order to make it to the end. 

Plus, there are few people on the journey who will feel compelled to give the millionaire wife of a loudmouth ex-football player another million bucks

If she goes to the final 3 with anyone named Tyson, Hayden, or Gervase, she can’t hope to beat them.  If she somehow manages to get Ciera and Laura/Tina with her to the end, she will have been responsible for at least 6 people’s ousters.

Betraying your friends to save your own hide is not the ticket to victory.

 

Group #2:  These guys can win if everything goes perfectly

Ciera—

Ciera’s game is one of half-measures and lost opportunities.  She made a couple big moves (voting off her mom and drawing rocks) but did so only after being badgered by smarter players (Hayden/Tyson).

People don’t hate her, and might (on some levels) respect the fact that she was smart enough to follow simple instructions but she can’t really own any of the major plays.

If she can get to the end with Monica, Tina, or Laura M she might be able to pull off a split decision but any other combination and she’s toast

Laura M.—

In the NFL Hall of Fame, there are a number of players enshrined due almost entirely to their longevity.

Emmit Smith, for example, played forever and holds the rushing record due almost solely due to his ability to be competent for a very large stretch of time.

However, I don’t think anyone is going to say that Emmitt Smith is better than Barry Sanders or Erik Dickerson.  He just lasted forever.

And that, my friends, is Laura M.  She is a very competent challenge performer who has been able to survive week after week.

She’s worthy of consideration, but nobody really thinks she’s the best player.

Group #3:  The Contenders:

Gervase--

 

Stronger than anyone sneakier and sneakier than anyone stronger.  Gervase has played a very balanced game.  He has a better chance of making it to the end than Tyson because people are less frightened of his end game and a better chance than Hayden due to the fact that he’s not already on Redemption Island.

He’ll beat anyone not named Tsyon or Hayden and has a better chance of getting t the finals than either of those guys.  As always, he’s in a pretty good place if he can keep his yap shut.

Tyson—

 

If being in constant control is worthy of victory, Tyson pulls home the million if he makes it to the end.

For nearly the entire game, he was calling the shots for the dominant alliance and also showed his tenacity by tracking down the immunity idol twice.

He lacked Cochran’s timing brilliance and Boston Rob’s political ability to stay under the radar but he played the most consistent game.

 

Hayden—

This guy was the MacGyver  of the island.  He took an impossible position and, with no tools, almost singlehandedly turned the game around for 3 people.

Hayden took the biggest risks and then talked other people into taking huge risks on his behalf. 

He’s likable, funny, doesn’t Russel feathers.  If he can get out of Redemption Island and in front of a jury, he’ll be a force.

 

The Winner:

 

Tyson—

Many things can happen but it is always a good idea to pick the winner based upon their prospects of victory at the final tribal council.

Nobody can beat him in the end and he doesn’t need to defeat the invincible Laura M. at Redemption to get back in the game.

He’s not the best of the Survivor champs, but he’s superior to the rest of the Shmendricks from this season.

I’ll have my end of the season conclusions next week.  Be well my friends!

Survivor 27: Blood vs. Water: Week 12 Special Edition

Let me launch this week’s power rankings preview by sending out a hearty “#@%& you!” to the people from CBS who create, edit, and run the weekly previews.

Suffice it to say that an astute viewer knows who wins at Redemption Island as well as how the vote goes at tribal council based solely on a 15 second local TV spot purchased by the network for affiliates across the US.

Out of respect for my readers who don’t sit around all day watching TV or are, perhaps, big dumb candy-asses who don’t watch football on weekends, I am going to eschew the rankings this week and instead talk about the remaining players and their prospects for winning the million.

On a less important note, I really crappethed  the bed by putting Caleb #1 last week.  Let us speak no more of this…..

Let us now talk some Survivor:

Tyson:

Reasons he can win:

1)      He has been the driving force behind every relevant move this season

2)      For people who can’t see the immense amount of $hit he talks about them behind the scenes, he seems pretty cool.

3)      His belly full of ill-gotten coconuts allows him to compete in challenges even with a jacked up shoulder.

4)      He doesn’t root for the Philadelphia Eagles which makes him smarter than a at least 1 other player.

Reasons he’ll lose:

1)      If Gervase is the silent “grand vizier” who operates behind the scenes, Tyson makes his moves with the flamboyance of a younger, gayer, Elton John.  This makes him a hell of a target for savvy players who know that aggressive players who are not overt bastards usually win (refer to all seasons after 5).

 

Look at me!  I'm the one making everyone vote you off the island!

 

2)      He still has a bum shoulder and does not appear to be able to eat Manatee poop with the same vigor as Katie, Monica, or Gervase.  Any hopes of sweeping immunity look slim.

3)      I don’t feel like he has an innate sense of timing like Boston Rob or Cochran displayed in their drive to the coin.  His immunity idol play was pretty irrelevant when compared to previous seasons.

4)      The fact that he didn’t tell ANYONE in his alliance that he had the idol must plant seeds of doubt as to the sincerity of his loyalty.  People may feel slighted come voting time.

Monica:

Reasons she can win:

1)      In any challenge that requires endurance or grip strength in proportion to body weight,  this woman is unstoppable.  I bet she is great at choking the %$#& out of her kids when they act up….

 

 

2)      If she can keep her yap shut and let the power players snipe at each other, there is a good chance she ends up in a final 3 with a couple of schlemiels  with little to support their case for the million.

Reasons she’ll lose:

1)      Unless Probst has the legal and spiritual authority to perform a quickfire divorce in front of the jury during the final tribal council, she’s still married to that Delta Bravo Brad Culpepper.

2)      Flip-floppy people seldom fare well when campaigning for votes.  She has been little more than a disloyal opportunist for the last 3 weeks and everyone who is sitting on the loser’s bench will remember this.

Katie:

Reasons she can win:

1)      Katie is starting to have the feeling of a “Natalie” from that season that Russel Hantz lost.  She’s pretty (She is one of the few people in this shows illustrious history that looks noticeably better after eating rice and grubs) , she’s likable, and isn’t a total dunder-pate like Amanda Kimmel who will ramble like a homeless man in front of the jury id she makes it far enough.  If people are pissed enough at the remaining players, she might just get the “F.U’” vote to win the day.

2)      Has there been a bigger non-player this season?  Other competitors will naturally want to drag this non-entity to the end thinking that she has no threatening resume to steal the cabbage.

3)      At the very least, there will be 2 Mom’s on the jury who will probably cast their vote for the last surviving “Little Girl”.

Reasons she’ll lose:

1)      Katie’s greatest strength is her greatest weakness as well.  If she does make it to the final 3, how is she going to field the inevitable “Why do you deserve the million dollars” questions?  Telling people that you can finally fit into some pants you bought in 2007 won’t do the trick.  Although she’d probably get my vote for such candor….

2)      They had their eating challenge already.  Katie cannot hope to take herself to the finals, she must rely on the largesse of others.  Having no control of one’s own destiny is never a good thing.

3)      She needs to make sure Ciera does not make it to the end or she risks splitting the “Mommy Vote”.

Gervase:

Reasons he can win:

1)      Power without responsibility.  He knows everything that is going on around camp and has strategic input on top of it.  Yet, somehow, everyone is pissed off at or scared of Tyson.  This a great place to be.

 

Unlike Disney's reality, the Sultan will be to blame for any decisions

 

2)      People either seem to trust this guy or have confidence that his self interest will add some malleability to his play.  He’s kind of like a swing vote even when in the dominant alliance.

 Reasons he’ll lose:

1)      Gervase must be very careful who he takes to the end should he make it that far.  If he sits next to Tyson he’s screwed given the game he has played thus far. 

2)      He roots for the Philadelphia Eagles.  As we all know, God hates Cleveland and Philly.  Unless he has some help from “down under”, overcoming the displeasure of the almighty is at tall task indeed.

Hayden:

Reasons he can win:

1)      You don’t win Big Brother without having some serious social acumen.  He’s likable enough to outperform Katie in front of the final jury particularly if he engineers some fireworks in the last few weeks.

2)      They can’t possibly continue to gear every immunity challenge to sinewy people who are small of stature.  I have a feeling that eventually challenges requiring some beef will end up in play here.

3)      He’s dating Kat.  He has used up a solid portion of his bad luck already.

Reasons he’ll lose:

1)      Winning Big Brother gives you a million bucks.  I’m no Socialist, but giving a million dollars to a millionaire just seems like a butthole move.

2)      He’s one of the guys who betrayed the alliance before it was time.  This will plague him on the jury as well as with his remaining tribe mates if luck doesn’t go his way.

3)      He’s dating Kat.  If that isn’t a damning condemnation of someone’s judgment I don’t know what is (aside, perhaps, from betting on the Buffalo Bills).  he may do something stupid pretty soon that shoots him in the arse.

Ciera:

Reason’s she’ll win:

1)      She may be sneaky but she’s not quite considered a power player.  It is entirely possible that the strong forces will eliminate themselves through a war of attrition allowing her to proceed to the final 3 with an entourage of nincompoops.

2)      Even if she didn’t conceive of the move and tried to fight it in the end, voting off one’s own mother can be viewed by people on the jury as a substantial self-sacrifice.  This separates her from any non-entities that might join her in the end.

3)      Like Katie, she is as likely to get the Mommy vote as the Democratic Mayoral Candidate in San Francisco.

Reasons she’ll lose:

1)      When it comes down to it, she did nothing other than do what Tyson told her the entire game (thus far).  Why would I give a million dollars to Robin when Batman is vying for the same prize?

2)      Ciera is like a weaker, sneakier Katie.  No threat to win challenges and a possible traitor come vote time.  Enemies make dangerous friends.

3)      If Katie makes it to the end, she loses the other vote she’d get.

 

No Redemption predictions this week. 

 

Week 2: #10 of 17 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 3: #16 out of 16 quit game

Week 3: #10 of 15 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island

Week 4: #12 of 14 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 5: #10 of 13 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 6: #2 of 12 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 7: #10 of 11 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island

Week 8: #10 of 10 voted off at tribal council:  Picked winner at Redemption Island

Week 9: #9 of 9 voted off at tribal council:  No Redemption challenge

Week 9: #8 of 8 voted off at tribal council:  No Redemption challenge

Week 10: #7 of 8 voted off at tribal council:  Picked 1 of 2 winners at Redemption Island

Week 10: #` of 7 voted off at tribal council:  Picked both winners at Redemption Island