Hail new readers and old!
Some of you may be wondering why I have opted to take The Invectives into the oversaturated market of reality TV and to you I say this:
Who cares why? It is my will to see it done so it will be so!
I have settled on Survivor chiefly because other reality shows are less provocative (Amazing Race), uncompetitive (Pawn Stars), allegedly staged (Storage Wars), or stupid (Jersey Shore, the Kardashians or anything from Bravo/MTV/E!).
For the first installment, I’m going to talk about each member of this season’s cast and, you guessed it, prognosticate!
Let's start with The Favorites.
Malcolm
This guy is the classic “He should have won” case. He is like a slightly less dominant Ozzie with twice the intellect and thrice the social game. Malcolm is the type of dude with whom you would wish to go camping, share a beer, watch sports, surf, start a business, do yard work, watch TV, crochet…..
Hell if he wasn’t busy on Survivor, my wife and I would love to employ him as our live-in Au Pair.
Malcolm has the advantage of surprise in this format. He started up again less than 3 weeks after filming for the last season ended. Nobody on the tribe knows anything about him although I suspect that he will be very well liked in short order. Additionally, his youth will enable him to relate to the younger players on the Fans tribe when the merge happens while his maturity makes him a viable ally for more seasoned survivors.
Additionally, while he may become viewed as an extreme physical threat early, there is enough dead or annoying weight on the Favorites to shield him from early departure.
Conversely, due to the lack of any break from the Islands, he will likely be exhausted from a month away from civilization.
Still, I really like his chances out of the gate to go very far in this game. His skills at challenges may take him to the final 3 even if nobody wants him along for the ride.
Longevity rating: Excellent
Trending: Flat
Andrea
Despite my best efforts (which, I admit were not that great) I cannot remember much about this woman except that she hung out on the beach with some other sorority chick where they groomed each other.
She didn’t do much around camp, was unremarkable in challenges, and had very little upstairs to make her a memorable personality.
I think she looked pretty good in a bikini so I am guessing that is why we get to see her again this season.
Her lack of strong persona and low threat rating will likely serve as a cloak against early torch-snuffing. Sadly, due to the presence of Brenda, she will be unable to really play the bikini card.
The favorites tribe looks pretty strong on paper and experience usually tells early in the game so I think she may go many weeks before coming under fire. However, if the favorites falter and she does her usual crappy job in challenges, she’s gone.
Andrea thrives in a tribe built of early 20-something meatheads and college chicks. Her starting tribe doesn’t have this composition. The opposing tribe does.
If she makes it to the merge somehow, look out.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Cochran
This guy huh? <sigh>
This dude has so little going for him for the early to mid-game that it would require a minor miracle to see him win the million.
1) He’s laughably un-athletic and a total liability in any challenge that do not involve World of Warcraft. Whichever tribe he is part of is crappier due to his presence.
2) His reputation as a scheming neurotic worrywart who cannot be relied upon to be steadfast will make forming an initially strong alliance difficult if not impossible.
3) Despite his self-deprecations, I still believe he thinks he’s more clever than the other people on the island and this is a cardinal sin for someone who is not more clever than the other people on the island.
He does have the advantage of being likable in kind of a “dungeon master/Woody Allen” way and his threat rating is non-existent. If he can survive into the late game, various alliances may notice the fierce loyalty they can obtain with some kind words and acceptance. The tribe also has a few cancers to get rid of early (Phillip/Brandon) but if the Favorites go on a losing streak, Cochran cannot be sustained.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Flat
Brandon
Brandon the unstable. Brandon the tormented. Brandon the capricious.
Never have I ever seen a human being that more perfectly resembles (in mannerism) Gollum from Lord of the Rings.
The last time we saw Brandon Hantz, I was reminded of the scene from The Two Towers when Smeagol/Gollum gets in a violent argument with himself about what to do with Frodo and the ring.
After what seemed like his 17th meltdown at Tribal Council, Brandon had one of those “Leave now and never come back! Smeagol is freeeeeee!” moments that warmed our hearts and made us snuggle a little more with our loved ones.
Even if Brandon/Smeagol wins out over Hantz/Gollum, this guy is so erratic that it is almost unconscionable that anyone would take him far enough in the game that he might earn the “I am sure to beat this guy so let’s take him to the finals” label. Unless he kicks ass in challenges while the tribe fails or has undergone a lobotomy between seasons, he’s gone early.
Longevity rating: Crappy
Trending: Flat
Dawn
Every tribe needs an older woman who kicks arse to serve as mediator and mother and this is where Dawn shines. This well-spoken, kind, and tenacious English professor is likely to become a tribe favorite in pretty short order if she can resist the urge to rekindle her previous relationship with Cochran.
She’s great in challenges, works hard at camp, and is generally very good for morale. Because of the demographics of this tribe, she will not be pigeonholed as the ineffectual old woman as anyone who has seen the show will know this is not so.
I like this lady because she reminds me of a tan, skinny, Suze Orman. On the down side, nobody with half a brain wants her sitting next to them at the end only to get lambasted by this saintly verbal pugilist.
She is too savvy to commit any obvious blunders so her short-term viability is excellent but, unlike Malcolm, she may not have enough in the tank to bully her way physically to the finals should the situation call for it.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Erik
There are two possibilities for this guy:
1) He’s every bit as dumb as he looked when letting Parvati talk him out of his immunity Necklace
2) He isn’t that dumb.
If the answer is “2”, then there is hope for this guy. He’s older and wiser and if he’s still likable and didn’t go “Fat Elvis” over the last few years, he’ll make it to the merge and far beyond.
Like Malcolm, he’s still young enough to relate to the youths on the other tribe should the merge occur with something close to even numbers.
If he is more akin to possibility “1”, then he’ll make it to the jury but no farther.
I’m thinking that nobody can be that dumb on national TV twice. Can They? He was good in challanges and everyone loved having him around. Some danger here I think.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Phillip
Tragically, it appears that “The Specialist” will be treating us to another season of pink undies.
I was about to write that Brandon was the most unstable human being that I have ever seen on Survivor due to his battle between sanity and madness but then I remembered Phillip.
Phillip is crazy. I don’t mean “African-American” crazy, but actual crazy. He’s like an unholy mix between Willie Loman from Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, and that Rasputin looking guy that would dig through the dumpster when I used to work north of downtown.
He has the added benefit of being a son-of-a-bitch on top of it.
I do not believe there is any possible way that the tribe will be able to stomach him long enough to even get to the point where his instability and severe lack of likability become assets.
Barring some early and extreme social missteps by the two ladies below (or perhaps, if Cochran actually pees on Jeff Probst during an immunity challenge when he should be climbing something), this guy is out fast.
Longevity rating: Crappy
Trending: Flat
Corinne
Much like Andrea, I can remember next to nothing about this woman. Reading her Bio, it does seem like she is kind of an butthole.
If memory serves, she was an SOB the last time she played (her fued with Sugar comes to mind) but nothing about her really stuck with me.
She did make fun of all the models and actresses that they keep dredging up for this show, citing that she has a real job (hence her inability to appear on “Heros vs. Viilains”) so I kind of like her on that level.
She was moderate to good at challenges and showed herself to be loyal in her alliances She may end up faring OK but I do not like her long-term prospects very much.
Sneaky and underhanded bastards go far in this game. People who exhibit pointless and senseless acts of assholery to other people do not.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Brenda
I really liked the game Brenda played last time out. She was in complete control of events until fate intervened and lesser people failed.
To her discredit, I believe that she (like many players who unexpectedly find themselves in power positions) allowed complacency to cloud her perception. Still, she seldom overplayed her hand and was not senselessly buttholish to players on the outs of her alliance, maintaining a certain level of likability that will keep her from becoming an early target like Corinne, Brandon, or Phillip.
As the owner of a company, she has skill in negotiation and people management. Since that company is in the business of paddleboard manufacture and sales, she is in top physical shape making her a force in challenges. Moreover, her physical appearance supersedes Andrea’s “I look nice in a bikini” strategy within her starting tribe.
If she can keep from getting cocky for a second season, I can see her seizing control of the game early and riding it to the final 3. The only concern I have, (and it is not insubstantial) is that the other players will make the inevitable comparison to Parvati and it will scare the crap out of them.
Longevity rating: Excellent
Trending: Flat
Francesca
I have no idea why this woman is here. Whose favorite is she?
Francesca got dumped the very first episode the last time she was on the island for allying herself with crazy Phillip and for being an insufferable know-it-all.
She must have pictures of Probst buggering a llama or something.
Anyway, I really don’t know enough about this woman (she looks to be too young to be the lady they caught smoking crack with Marion Barry a couple of decades back) to make any sort of educated guess regarding her survivability so I’ll just look to history.
She was an overbearing loud-mouth with poor instincts the first time out so I’ll just use that as a starting point.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Flat
Now for the Fans tribe.
Knowing next to nothing about these cats it is difficult to make any conclusions regarding their potential so I must utilize the time-honored tradition of making snap judgments based solely upon appearance and first impression. Given the less than stellar results of my NFL playoff picks, I may end up actually doing better on this group…..
Allie
It seems that every season we get a disinteresting young blonde bartender/waitress/dancer/actress and this season is no exception.
It seems that every season we get a disinteresting young blonde bartender/waitress/dancer/actress and this season is no exception.
I am wondering if, like Barney Gumbal from The Simpsons, she’ll turn into some sort of super hero when taken away from the debauchery of schlepping and ingesting booze.
I doubt it. Probably another harmless mid-level torch snuff but being a barkeep does tend to make one perceptive and this one seems to be the most savvy of the sorority girls.
We’ll see.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Eddie
I kind of like this guy. He seems friendly and is obviously in pretty good shape being a firefighter and all. Among tribe-mates, his chosen career will invoke visions of rescuing kittens in trees and rushing into burning houses to fetch Grandma’s favorite shawl to keep her from getting a chill in the crisp night air.
I kind of like this guy. He seems friendly and is obviously in pretty good shape being a firefighter and all. Among tribe-mates, his chosen career will invoke visions of rescuing kittens in trees and rushing into burning houses to fetch Grandma’s favorite shawl to keep her from getting a chill in the crisp night air.
His age and position allows him to ally himself selectively with either the seasoned players or the whelps depending upon which side the power resides. His obvious physicality will almost certainly protect him from early departure.
It is absolutely vital for the Fans tribe to head to the merge united and close to a match in numbers and this is even more so for Eddie as he will be viewed as a serious threat for individual immunity once the merge happens.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Hope
Another beauty queen (Miss Missouri). Well, I’d be lying if I said I would prefer they found more ugly people to prance around on my HD in skimpy swimwear but I am not sure what kind of social game to expect from Hope.
Another beauty queen (Miss Missouri). Well, I’d be lying if I said I would prefer they found more ugly people to prance around on my HD in skimpy swimwear but I am not sure what kind of social game to expect from Hope.
It seems that women from the prim, proper, and polite word of pageants have a very difficult time wielding the knife and, if they attempt to do so, lack subtlety. They also lean toward the soft side on challenges despite outward appearances.
It is likely she will find a strong figure in the tribe, set herself firmly upon his/her shoulders, and ride her beauty to the merge and beyond. None of the dudes will want to vote her out (why would they?) and her charm and charisma will likely prevent any significant social gaffes with the ladies.
I don’t suspect she will be viewed as much of a physical threat and would likely be quite eloquent if he makes it to the final 3. The type of game I think she’ll end up playing will get her far but cannot translate to total victory.
Longevity rating: Good
Trending: Flat
Julia
Getting a read on Julia is most difficult.
Getting a read on Julia is most difficult.
On one hand, she is a young (21), smart (attends Stanford), and is a racecar driver (bitchin!).
I suspect that her drive and intellect will make her stronger in challenges than the rest of her female tribe-mates, shielding her from early departure.
On the other hand, her New York roots and obviously jockish and competitive demeanor are almost certain to put her on the outs with the young, blonde princesses who dominate the tribe.
She will have to overcome much to survive early but if she can do so, she may do some damage in the mid to late game.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Laura
From what I can see, this girl seems unremarkable in personality, experience, and physical prowess.
From what I can see, this girl seems unremarkable in personality, experience, and physical prowess.
She looks like she’ll fit in with the other Delta-Delta-Deltas that seem to dominate the tribe demographic so she’ll probably make it to the merge.
That’s about all I have to say about that.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Matt
I cannot shake the feeling that this self-described “softy with a bad-ass exterior” is going be gone quickly.
I cannot shake the feeling that this self-described “softy with a bad-ass exterior” is going be gone quickly.
He’s older, looks different than the others, has unusual life experiences, and his tats will probably spook the delicate sensibilities of tribe-mates who do not race cars or schlep drinks.
I see it breaking down like this:
“We lost the challenge. You’re different than we are. Bring Jeff your torch”
He may look like a Viking, but do you know what happened to Vikings with soft hearts? They got their ass kicked.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Flat
Michael
Another probable victim of “young tribe syndrome.”
This guy may have the best strategy in the world but if this tribe does not fare well initially in challenges, he’ll be targeted early and often. If they approach the merge with similar numbers, he will be viewed as a flop risk and will be similarly targeted.
If the merge comes and the numbers are close, I can see him surviving to 6 or 7 but even then, everything will have to go just right.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Flat
Reynold
He seems likable enough I guess. Reynold appears athletic although not in a threatening way and claims to be on the Island to have fun and make friends.
He seems likable enough I guess. Reynold appears athletic although not in a threatening way and claims to be on the Island to have fun and make friends.
This is an excellent short to mid-term strategy. Do well enough to stick around, make friends, and don’t be overbearing or threatening.
Sadly, people on the game to make friends often become paralyzed when the time comes to make the inevitable tough decision. Indecision is death in this game. Ask Penner.
Reynold is the survivor equivalent of the goofy tall white guy that every NBA team has on the bench who ventures out like a buffoon when the game is either already lost or already won. Everyone likes him, he’s just not a serious player.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
Shamar
Aside from that Terry guy like 7 years ago, military people have a hard time on this game.
Aside from that Terry guy like 7 years ago, military people have a hard time on this game.
Structure, planning, discipline, hard-work. All these things are vital to success in battle and in life.
OK, now take that approach and try to apply it to a platoon of 20 year old bartenders, actresses, and beauty queens who are stuck on an island and deprived of food. Hell, go tell the tatted up BMX bike guy to drop and give you 20.
If he tries to go drill sergeant on the kids he’s gone and it doesn’t matter how good he does in challenges. Hercules himself could be a member of the tribe and they’d sent him to Hades simply for annoying them.
However, word on the street is that he was involved with the Occupy Wall Street movement. If this is the case, this dude has to be well-versed in dealing with lazy and entitled ne’er-do-wells.
Tough call but I am going to err on the side of “different means dangerous” and flag Shamar for an early exit.
Longevity rating: Poor
Trending: Flat
Sherri
If “Stiffler’s Mom” has any designs on lasting more than a few tribal councils, she will need to play the role of loving house mother to the kiddos on the tribe and kick butts in challenges.
If “Stiffler’s Mom” has any designs on lasting more than a few tribal councils, she will need to play the role of loving house mother to the kiddos on the tribe and kick butts in challenges.
If she is too abrasive or preachy, she will certainly earn the moniker of “bitter old cougar” from her tribe mates and be sent packing in short order.
There is some potential here the makeup of the tribe and she will certainly settle in easier with more seasoned castaways after the merge. It all depends upon how she plays her cards.
Longevity rating: Moderate
Trending: Flat
