Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 16

Under normal circumstances, I might be tempted to spend this week's blog intro celebrating Dallas' continued misfortune.

Perhaps I would then meander into the always interesting topic of my extreme competence when it involves prognostication.

Undoubtedly, I would finish up by complaining bitterly about the Broncos' Offensive Coaching staff and their inability to make any sort of meaningful adjustments either at half-time or as the game progresses.

Instead, I will speak about this Darkest of Days for one Peyton Manning.

As you may have heard, Al Jazeera is reporting that Manning is one of several athletes that took HGH in 2011 to overcome injuries.

The impeccable source (n pharmacy intern who may or may not have even worked at the institute in question) has since recanted his story publicly, claiming he was messing with the Al Jazeera "Undercover Reporter" who looked like he was simply trying to steal industry information and had no idea what he was talking about.

Bollocks I say.

If a single un-vetted source who isn't even a pharmacist and wasn't involved in anything whatsoever is good enough for a stand-up organization like Al Jazeera then it's good enough for me.

Al Jazeera's marketing team must consist entirely of baboons

Obviously a cover-up is in play here.

Now allow me to wind this up as I am engaged in other masterpieces of reporting by Al Jazeera such as "Holocaust Schmolocaust," "Why 13 Year Old Girls Love ISIS," and "Marijuana Linked to Sitting Around and Getting High."



Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 ½)  @ New Orleans Saints

I watched a QB with a torn planter fasciitis play for the first 8 weeks of the season.  I ain't picking another one to win a game and cover a spread even if his opponent is Jacksonville.

One team is sinking and the other rising.  The question is have they finally passed each other heading in the opposite direction?

Jags left.  Saints right.

Yes.  The answer is Yes.

New England Patriots (-1½)  @ New York Jets

This was very nearly my trap game of the week.

The Jets are not a bad squad by any means but do not pose the match-up problem for New England that they do for other teams.

I suspect that, as usual, Revis will shut down whichever receiver he is tasked with covering.

Whoopitdy-Do.

There is only one dude you need to shutdown who catches balls for the Patriots and his name ain't "LaFell" or "Amendola".

New England will not yet know if they have clinched home field for the playoffs given that Cincinnati and Denver don't play until Monday so they will probably just win this one and then rest their guys.

Cincinnati Bengals  @ Denver Broncos (-3)

It may be too early to say this, but I believe that both the starting QB and the O.C. are playing/coaching for a big contract and position on the staff respectively.

You cannot go 3 games without scoring in the second half of games and you cannot stare down your first read and then take a sack every time they are covered.

I think this is a major gut-check for Denver and from what I have seen from these guys this year, I believe they will come through.

That and they are playing a backup QB at home.

Take the Broncos here.

Houston Texans (-2½) @ Tennessee Titans

Tennessee, when healthy, is slightly better than rubbish.

When Zach Mettenberger gets the start for an injured Marcus Mariota, the Philadelphia 76ers and the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers can be heard stifling a chuckle.

Houston is playing for their playoff lives.

I like the Texans to win 5-0 or something like that.

This game is so trappy I am almost feel guilty writing about it.

Week 15 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 36-23-1

Trap Game Record: 8-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 15

Well my friends, we had a first last week.

I missed 3 out of 4 picks and the only one I got right was the trap game.

It is indeed a pleasant surprise to have climbed to .500 in trap picks this year as I am now guaranteed a better trap-game winning percentage on the season than the Colorado Rockies will ever have again in our lifetimes.

You know who is not .500 and is going to miss the playoffs this year in a perfect representation of karmic forces?  That's right.  The Dallas Cowboys!

If ever you find yourself sitting in a hall of worship, at a pub with friends, or reading philosophical works, look to this season and purge all feelings of doubt about a higher power.

The Universe has a way of making things right and visiting misfortune on a team run by the mummy of Ramses II has restored the faith of millions who may have occasionally questioned their own worldview.

Jerry Jones fields questions about the Greg Hardy signing

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-12 ½)

When I first saw this spread I thought, "Damn.  That's a lot of points."

When I took another look I decided that no amount of points would make me comfortable taking Tennessee on the road against these guys.

That having been said, some of you may know that I found Belichick's celebrity look-alike (See Below)

Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Washington Redskins

Prove wrong Kirk Cousins.  Prove me wrong....

Oh #$%@.

Did I just take the Bills again?

.......

Green Bay Packers (-2 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

While I will admit that Oakland is an improved team under their new coach, allow me to remind everyone that this is the same team that had negative 12 yards of offense by halftime last week.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will not be kicking field goals every time they have a first and 10 in the red zone.

Of course, my fantasy team, AP's Discount Switch Hut, would love it if Mason Crosby kicked a couple FG's today....

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)

This line cannot be praise for the Bears so it must be a damning condemnation of the Vikings.

A steady dose of AP makes a win win and cover a foregone conclusion.

Therefore, it can be concluded that this is indeed:

Week 14 Record:  1-3

Season Record: 33-22-1

Trap Game Record: 7-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 14

Well.....I'd say that I was happy to be back in The States but then I'd be a lying bastard.

However, because I have kids, I'll give the obligatory "I'm happy to be back home" so I that everyone reading can say what a great family guy I am and we can all move on feeling peace in our hearts.

As many of you have undoubtedly noticed, 2 long-expected events occurred:

1) The weekly trap game has resumed kicking my arse.

2) Peyton Manning's injuries become worse and worse with every game the Osweiler-led Broncos win.

It should, by now, be obvious to all what is happening here.  Brock Osweiler is drawing upon Manning's life force in an NFL version of Oscar Wilde's The Picture of Dorian Grey.

Let's hope it ends better for the good guys than it did in the novel.  

Go Broncos!

Now lets pick some games.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2 ½)

Why this should be a trap game:

I find it incredible that odds makers would have us believe that a healthy 10-2 Cincinnati team, at home, is only favored by a Field Goal.  Did they find Andy Dalton hiding in Justin Beiber's bathroom during a heroin bust or something?

Why it isn't a trap:

History and rivalry.  Pittsburgh has a history of showing up big in big games while the Bengals usually poop the bed. 

It's never a trap when this guy is at the helm in a big game.

With a playoff spot on the line, I expect the Steelers to come out with a controlled desperation that will put early pressure on the Bengals.  The only question at hand is whether the better team weathers the storm and pulls out a win.

I think they do.

San Diego Chargers @  Kansas City Chiefs (-7½)

Why this should be a trap game:

The weather forecast calls for strong winds.  It is hard to throw in string winds.  San Diego can't run the ball and now they will have a hard time throwing it also.  The Chefs are at home and now the Chargers will suck even more than usual.  This spread is waaaaayyyy too small.

No explanation necessary here.  We all know my thoughts on Phyllis.

Why it isn't a trap:

The weather forecast calls for strong winds.  If Phyllis Rivers has trouble throwing the ball then Rag-arm Smith may as well just bench himself.  Instead, I suspect the Chefs will simply hand the ball off and run it up the gut.  However, rain is also in the forecast which adds the turn-over element to the mix.  With this uncertainty present, a double-digit spread is risky business.

I still like KC here to cover the TD+ spread.

Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (-1)

Why this should be a trap game:

Last week's gaffe notwithstanding, Chicago has been playing much better football of late.  They are at home, reasonably healthy, and playing an opposing quarterback who is far more Mr. Hyde than Dr. Jekyll when it comes to performing on the road.

Why it isn't a trap:

Chicago and Washington both suck.  It's hardly a shock when teams this inconsistent play worse than expected.

Daaaa Bears should win but it wouldn't floor me if they drop an easy one.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-6 ½) 

Why this should be a trap game:

I haven't seen a team crash and burn this violently after an auspicious start since the Josh McDaniels-led Broncos started 6-0 but lost 8 of their last 10.  They can no longer run the ball, Matt Ryan looks like some bastardized version of Brady Quinn, and they are playing on the road against a healthy, confident, UNBEATEN division foe.

Why it isn't a trap:

It's a trap.  

Week 13 Record:  2-2

Season Record: 32-19-1

Trap Game Record: 6-7

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 13: Vacation Edition

Telegram From Frey:

In London.  Stop.

Surrounded by Limeys.  Stop.

They Think Football is Some Game That Involves Using Your Feet.  Stop.

Posting Before I am Found.  Stop.



Philadelphia Eagles (+13) @ New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-6 ½)

Kansas City Chiefs (-2 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-3)

Week 8 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 30-17-1

Trap Game Record: 6-6

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Thanksgiving Edition

It has been a tough couple of weeks for civilization and on this Thanksgiving holiday, it is important that we take time to reflect upon life and express meaningful gratitude for those things we hold dear or, perhaps, ascribe less value than we should.

In that spirit, here are the top 7 under-appreciated things related to the NFL for which I am personally grateful..


#7:  The fact that Adrian Peterson is not our babysitter.

#6:  Firework safety.  Yep.  I guess people actually do get their fingers blown off.  I had filed that particular warning away in the BS file along with "You'll shoot your eye out" , "Coffee stunts your growth", and "Don't drink mouthwash."  

#5:  That "Thanksgiving Dinner" has become synonymous with "Wanna come over and watch Detroit get their ass kicked?"

#4:  Ryan Fitzpatrick's splendid beard. 

How can anyone not root for this guy?

#3:  With a gimpy ankle and lingering foot ailment, Ben Rothlesberger has a harder time chasing coeds into pub restrooms.

#2:  Jerry Jones:  Reminding people across the globe why they hated the Cowboys growing up.  Someone has to be the new Al Davis right?  

#1:  While religion and politics do indeed make excellent table talk at any gathering, a well-timed "how about them Browns?" can provide a much-needed blast of levity to tense situations.

St. Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7 ½)

The Bengals, losers of 2 straight, played great last week in a road loss to an excellent Arizona team.

The Rams lost to a crappy Ravens team who lost 62% of their players to injury before the game concluded.

Baltimore's team trainers in the locker room after the game last week.

Cincinnati is at home, they need the win, and they are pissed.

This game has 24-13 written all over it.

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the first time that the Jags have been favored in a game since 1996?

Family photo taken just prior to the last game in which Jacksonville was favored by more than 3.

Well there is a good reason for it.  San Diego is decimated by injuries, has largely quit trying, and (you guessed it) Phillip Rivers is a butthole.

I like Jacksonville here.  

Wow.  That is the first time in my life that I have ever typed those words.....

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (+5 ½)

1) Tom Brady is 2-5 in games played in Denver.

2) The Patriot offense is riddled with injury and had trouble protecting the quarterback last week.

3) Denver has a sick pass-rush, making the above situation even more troubling for the Pats.

4) Osweiler can throw the ball more than 15 yards without needing to twist about like a contortionist.

Peyton Manning prepares to throw a 5 yard out.

5) New England is coming off a short week and has had less time to find ways to cheat without getting caught.

I am expecting a low-scoring defensive struggle and I think that Denver covers this spread.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3 ½)

The Chiefs' defense has looked like the 85' Bears the past 2 weeks while the Bills have looked like....well...the Bills.

With Tyrod Taylor hurt, they will look even more like the Bills.

A point-spread this low, for a game in Arrowhead, with these 2 teams, defies logic.

It can only mean:

Week 8 Record:  1-3

Season Record: 27-16-1

Trap Game Record: 5-6

Frey's NFL Picks of the Week: Week 11

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.

--T.S. Eliot

We deserved better.

He deserved better.

Peyton Manning’s gut-wrenching performance against a very pedestrian Chiefs defense was almost terrifying in its hideosity.

For every John Elway (a man whose exit from the great stage was matched in perfection and panache only by Humphrey Bogart’s foggy night airport stroll with Claude Rains), there are a thousand Brett Farves, Joe Theismans, or Dan Marinos.

Following the ignominious benching of a legend last week, I was initially reminded of the scene in Surf’s Up where surfing icon Big ‘Z’ realized, to his horror, that his days at the top were over and that no amount of sacrifice was ever going to make him who he once was.

Now that I have had a week to reflect, Peyton’s situation appears to be more akin to the demise of General George S. Patton.

Both men enjoyed a strong pedigree in their chosen professions.  The enjoyed early successes, escaped injury when so many others fell, and accomplished things in the field that nobody thought possible.  They toiled ceaselessly to be the best at their craft, overcoming physiological limitations with creativity, ingenuity, and an insatiable thirst for victory.

Both were considered by friend and foe alike to be among the greatest of their era who, at the top of their games, suffered terrible setbacks to their careers that would have doomed lesser men.  Patton and Peyton defied monstrous odds when most people thought they were done for and added even more laurels to their already distinguished careers.

Then disaster.  Only months after the German surrender in WW II, George S. Patton, the man who had survived so many brushes with death and overcome so many setbacks, was grievously injured in a freak, low-speed car accident. 

In terrible agony, he lingered on, refusing to give up despite the fact that everyone around him knew he was finished.  The fight never left the man but his body ultimately betrayed him and he finally departed history not with a glorious crescendo, but with sad understatement.

Peyton Manning’s time is done.  A blind man can see it from a mile away.  In fact, we have all been blinded by his resume, by his demeanor, by his fire. 

We blamed the scheme.  We trashed the offensive line.  We lambasted the running backs.

But let us now, on the eve of day 1 of the Brock Osweiler era, admit to what our eyes have told us ever since the debacle in St. Louis in 2014 and free ourselves of this misguided scapegoatery.   He is but a shadow now.

It should have ended better for great warriors like these.

It would have been so much easier to reconcile the end had he blown out a knee, or tweaked his back, or torn a rotator cuff.  Instead, he lingers on, like the great general 70 years ago, the will to fight still blazing in his eyes.

The blade of the magnificent warrior has been dulled.  His armor lay in tatters. His sword-arm hanging limply at his side, ruined from the vanquishing of too many foes.

The great tragedy with Peyton Manning lay not in the fact that he has fought too many battles and that the sun is setting on a storied career, but that this great ambassador of the game, this ultimate competitor, this man with whom rests every meaningful passing record has become an object of our pity.

He deserved better…..

Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins (+1 ½)

Definitive proof of the existence of karma:

Carolina’s record since releasing Greg Hardy:  9-0

Dallas’ record since Greg Hardy returned from suspension to play for them:  0-7

By all means Dallas...Enjoy your owner.  He thinks a felonious assaulter of women is "a team leader".

Take the ‘fins and feel good about your soul.

San Francisco 49ers (+13) @ Seattle Seahawks

Did you know that a Blaine Gabbert led team has never lost a game to Seattle coming off a bye week?

Yep.  They are currently 0-0 and will soon be 0-1.

They’ll just be 0-1 with a backdoor cover.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals (-2 ½)

I just got done checking the injury report. 

Amazingly, I STILL do not see Carson Palmer listed on it.

Carson Palmer usually looks like one of these guys by week 6 except he is actually really hurt.

Something evil is afoot my friends but I think the fact that Cincinnati is 8-1 kind of cancels out the weirdness when it comes to this game at least.

I expect this to be an awesome game but I like the Cards by more than a field goal here.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)

I have now seen the Packers play 3 weeks in a row.

They’re awful.  Even the corpse of Peyton Manning looked like Steve Young against these guys.

They cannot run the ball.  They can’t stop the run.

Minnesota excels at both and is at home.

This game screams “reputation spread” and could be gold for anyone smart enough to sniff it out.

On the other hand…

Week 8 Record:  3-1

Season Record: 26-13-1

Trap Game Record: 5-5