As the finale approaches, I am at a loss to make any sense of this season.
Never has there been a greater contract between the stellar and the stupid, the resourceful and the lazy, the calm and the feverish.
For the first time in many moons, I can make a case that any one of the remaining players can win the million if they are sitting next to the right person.
So much rides upon the nature of the final immunity challenge.
The final episode is upon us! It’s time for some analysis.
Tony
And yet again, we lead off with Tony.
The great pendulum of brilliance and baboonery has pitched back and forth like a drunken grandfather clock, giving us equal amounts of admiration and angst with each act in the great Survivor ballet.
As Tony bolted up the final stairs to his puzzle, it seemed ordained that Spencer’s chaotic and rudderless journey to the Promised Land would finally be smashed upon the rocks of Jersey City as Tony’s construction background really helped him build those stairs and ladders.
Then, as if possessed by some violent repetition demon, Tony inexplicably began feverishly moving his puzzle pieces around in random directions without having the foggiest idea what was going on. Minutes later, as Spencer finally ascended the platform, Tony shifted into overdrive, moving even more pieces at even greater speeds, in even more random directions.
Akin to the “billion chimps with typewriters collectively writing the next great novel” theory, he saw an insurmountable lead go down in flames as Spencer carefully studied the puzzle, came to the conclusion that it actually represented something once completed, and casually knocked it out.
Despite this setback, everything was going reasonably well for Tony right up to the point where he violated the last person on the island not pissed at him, tossed his unused idol to Jeff instead of hanging it around Trish’s neck, and sending his best chance for victory to the landfill.
Even so, nobody else knows what the “secret” idol does so Tony can make any wild claim he wishes and it has a chance of ringing true to paranoid ears. “This idol can be used at the final 4” is a reasonable lie and it may buy him a trip to the finals.
Ideal Final Challenge: Plant Dope on the Unsuspecting Brown Person and then Arrest Them
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| "This idol turns construction workers into cops and then into construction workers and then into cops and then into...." |
Matchups:
· Vs. Kass: Odds of Winning—80%
If Tony simply tells the jury what he did, why he did it, and how he used it to advance his game, he easily beats Kass. If he starts making Llama noises at any point in front of the jury, he may be screwed.
· Vs. Spencer: Odds of Winning—5%
This is the worst possible matchup. Spencer has no enemies on the jury, and aside from a pathological disgust for children and some uncool commentary behind the scenes, is likable, honest, and well-spoken. Tony cannot rely upon this opponent to self-sabotage when crunch time hits.
· Vs. Woo: Odds of Winning—60%
Success or failure here depends more upon Woo’s performance than Tony’s. In this circumstance, Tony can claim to have stayed loyal to at least one of his initial alliance mates and, perhaps, even claim that it was he and Woo all along.
If each man handles himself on par with what we’ve seen thus far this season, I think the body of Tony’s work gives him the edge over Woo’s likability.
Kass
This woman definitely ranks as one of the most reprehensible players in Survivor history.
She is like a malevolent virus that infects its host, wrecks as much havoc as possible, and then departs, standing smirking pompously over the wreckage.
Moreover, she is so smugly delusional, that she firmly believes that her peers actually look at the victims of her evil as the buttholes. My God!? Who does this woman hang out with when she’s not behaving like an unspeakable prick on national TV that would enable her to foster this inane illusion?
At this point in the game, most people in Kass’ position actually make attempts to bolster their tarnished reputation with current and prospective jury members.
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| Kass' friends gather together to tell her how wonderful she is and also for a gelato |
However, in Kass-land, best practices include:
1) Forging a slight bond with another player, then selling them out publically in front of everyone to create as much discomfort and conflict as possible.
2) Flipping off a well-liked jury member as she makes her way out of the game.
Kass does not seem content to have all existing jury members hate her guts, but wishes to ensure that any prospective jury members despise her as well.
Kasshole (many thanks to my buddy Nick for this term) may be the only player in Survivor history to get fewer than zero votes.
Ideal Final Challenge: Badger a Traumatized 6-Year Old Into Crying on the Witness Stand.
Matchups:
· Vs. Spencer: Odd of Winning—minus-4%
It is more likely that Jeff Probst will stab her with a tiki-torch and then cast her upon the communal fire than it is for her to come close to defeating Spencer.
· Vs. Tony: Odds of Winning—20%
If there is one thing in which Kass excels at within her general excellence at being a horrible human being, it is her ability to bring out the worst in other people. If she can get Tony so hacked off that he starts making animal noises and dancing around like a lower primate, she might make a game of it.
· Vs. Woo: Odds of Winning—10%
Kass is going to look so eminently distasteful next to Woo, that it is extremely unlikely that she will garner any support from the jury. Woo will not be baited, and Kass’ only play will likely be to point out that he played the game as Tony’s stooge. If Woo doesn’t flick boogers at the jury and just stares at Kass in pity and disgust, she’s toast.
Spencer
I like me some Spencer. He’s kind of like me but less awesome.
In truth, however, what has he actually done in this game to which he can point and say that he knocked it out of the park?
· He found a clue to an idol and then found the idol. So did the starving poker guy and like 50 other people who have played this game in the past.
· He then played the idol when not a single vote was cast for him.
· He lacked sufficient control of his original tribe to get the most inept player in Survivor history voted off a floundering tribe.
· He had the best quips for the private interviews of anyone but unless the producers placed everyone in a “spyshack” to watch him talk to the cameras, nobody can appreciate his witticisms.
· He was able (largely due to Tasha) to make the most paranoid man on the planet (Tony) nervous before tribal councils. Whoopidy-do.
· He outperformed “The Brawn Tribe” in a couple of puzzle challenges. This dubious accomplishment is like having the best teeth in England or being the prettiest chick at the Dungeons & Dragons convention.
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| Finalists for "Best English Teeth": 2007 |
· He sits where he does today not because he controlled his destiny (aside from 2 timely challenge wins), but because of the improvidence of those who had power and numbers.
Taking all of the aforementioned observations into account, Spencer wins this game hands down if he makes it to the jury.
Why? Because he is:
1) Stronger than anyone Smarter
2) Smarter than anyone Stronger
3) More well-liked than anyone more strategic
4) Less pompous than anyone more eloquent
Topping it off, his lack of position throughout the game has precluded the necessity for Spencer to have had to betray either ally or enemy.
If there is a single iota of logic remaining in this game, if he’s not on the jury, he gets a million bucks.
Ideal Final Challenge: Have Kass Stare at you and then pull an idol out of a wall without her seeing it
Matchups:
· Vs. Kass: Odds of Winning—104%
Spencer’s speech could consist entirely of racial epithets and disparaging comments about everyone’s mother and he would still rout Kass.
· Vs. Tony: Odds of Winning—95%
The only way Spencer loses this matchup is if he totally botches his jury performance (ala Amanda Kimmel…twice) or if the jury magically decides that Tony’s paranoid betrayals and ham-handed blindsides deserve the coin. It’s possible I guess……
· Vs. Woo: Odds of Winning—90%
Everyone likes Spencer. Everyone likes Woo.
Spencer scrambled to survive. Woo did what Tony wanted.
Spencer didn’t orchestrate any betrayals. Woo didn’t orchestrate any betrayals but participated in a few.
If they replace the jury with Filipino school children, Spencer loses here. Otherwise, I think he can buy a new golden chessboard even before the final votes are read.
Woo
If I am looking for someone with whom I can shoot some hoops, I pick Woo.
Need someone to have my back in a fight? Woo.
Babysitter? Not Grandparents. Not brothers or sisters. Not a British nanny. Woo.
Someone to whom I can award a million bucks for playing a sweet game of Survivor? Probably not Woo.
I have made reference to the fact that Woo’s jury performance is more important to him than to any other remaining contestant. He’s likable enough, but how does young Woo convince people that he came to play?
Woo needs to get back to his roots and what makes him who he is. Aside from those jackwagons from “Cobra Kai” in Karate Kid, who have you ever seen dance around like a butthole and rub the noses of the vanquished in the dirt?
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| This is not the way Woo rolls.... |
I believe he frames it thus:
“I did not revel in the misfortune of my peers, nor do I ever wish to constantly point out what a player I am. This is not the way of the martial artist.
Perseverance, focus, applying force only when absolutely necessary and never arbitrarily; this is the way I operate in the game and in life.
If I never made any big moves to oust a friend, or pumped my fists and danced around when I won a challenge, it is because this application of force and duplicity was not required of me.
If I was the worst liar in Survivor history, it is because I suck at it. Playing an overtly sneaky game would have been disastrous given my obvious ineptitude when it comes to pretense.
This is why I needed to placate and massage Tony throughout the game. In all aspects of life, people need to understand and acknowledge their own limitations.
Would it have been my preference for many of the ousters to be handled differently? Absolutely. But as many of you now know, the man with 2 idols and even more paranoia needed to be patiently waited out, not berated or confronted.
Knowing how poorly I deal with dishonesty and hurt feelings, and being equally aware of the necessity to be duplicitous in order to get to the end of the game, I chose Tony as the vehicle through which I could be sitting in front of you today.
I am also less of a dick than any of these other people.”
If Woo does this, I think he can beat anybody.
Woo is not going to do this.
Ideal Final Challenge: Roundhouse kick Kass in front of a throng of cheering schoolchildren
Matchups:
· Vs. Kass: Odds of Winning—90%
It is possible that Kass’ eloquence as an ambush trial attorney may sway some jurors but I suspect that dickery of that sort would only make people like Woo more.
In this matchup, Woo need only remain mellow and he wins….I think…..
· Vs. Tony: Odds of Winning—40%
Even if he doesn’t kick ass in front of the jury, Woo stands a chance of winning simply because this particular jury looks to be a little more bitter on average than most.
Still, Woo will need to generate some reason to give him the money other than his pleasant demeanor if he wishes to win here. It really doesn’t matter what Tony does.
It comes down to the fact that I give him a 40% chance of having reasonable eloquence and a well thought out approach to the jury.
· Vs. Spencer: Odds of Winning—10%
Woo needs a performance on par with that sneaky little flight attendant guy from Survivor: China in order to beat Spencer.
Again, if he frames his game correctly and the jury has a soul, he can bring home the coin. If not, he’s just another likable candidate to lose to the silver-tongued politician.
So who will win this season?
I have absolutely no idea.
It depends entirely upon the matchup.
Everyone wants to take Kass to the end.
Kass wants to sit next to Tony.
Nobody wants to sit next to Spencer or Woo.
Kass cannot possibly win but will almost certainly be in the final 2.
Spencer has the best chance to win final immunity to get there but needs to win twice to do so.
In the end, while Spencer is automatic if he makes it, I don’t think he can win the last 2 challenges to do so.
Only 1 person on this island has consistently manufactured their own luck and harnessed it when appropriate.
Tony.
