Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Survivor Caramoan Season 26 Fans vs. Favorites: Week 2 Write Up and Player Power Rankings

This week I decided to change up the format a bit.  The longevity rating system I came up with sucks.  Therefore, I'm going to rank each player based upon their current circumstances, their actions, and their available options for advancing their game.
I’ll also include some thoughts on each player’s contribution to the events of the preceding week under their specific ranking.
In General, however, I was not entirely pleased with last week’s episode.  I firmly believe that 70% of the show was focused solely upon the angry crazy guy (Shamar), the delusional crazy guy (Phillip) and the dangerously crazy guy (Brandon).
While I certainly do not wish to see people sitting around the campfire smiling on their brother, watching this much irrational baboonery is starting to make me feel like I’m back at my old job.
Madness is the prerogative of the editors it seems and at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reynold and Shamar cuddle in the tent next episode now that Allie is gone.  Shamar’s “not the cutest” either and we already saw how bendy he is on the beach.  Hit that Reynold! 

1)      Malcolm

I see no reason to doubt his game unless it be because of his weakness in tossing bags and hoops when compared to Reynold the bag and hoop tossing guru. 

Now a card carrying member of “Stealth R’ Us: Return of the Specialist” he’s comfortably in the majority, is a top contender in challenges, and brings a happy-go-lucky countenance to the tribe that will keep people from gunning for him.

Most importantly, I think his temperament will allow him to suffer through the Phillips and Brandons without losing his focus and getting drawn into a pissing match with those clowns.

Never argue with an idiot.  People watching may not be able to tell the difference.

Without question, Malcolm is currently in the Pole Position here.


2)      Dawn

This jump to the top is more of a testament to the improved game that Cochran is playing and less of a “hats off” to Dawn.  It no longer appears to be such an albatross around her neck and, for the moment, she seems to be in a position of power in the tribe.

Dawn is not currently on anyone’s radar (aside from Brandon whose assholery only raised her in the esteem of her tribemates) and she always comes back strong after one or two breakdowns in front of the camera.

Like Malcom, she is one of The Specialist’s merry men and is also savvy enough to laugh privately at the loud mouths who think they are running the game instead of engaging them in serious debate.


3)      Corrine

Amazingly, she has not yet displayed the petty bitchiness and mean spirit that plagued her game last time out.  In fact, I suspect that the producers of the show are gravely disappointed that she hasn’t gone “Mean Girl’s” on anyone yet.

She’s playing nice and appears to be both physically and mentally ready for this game.

If she can keep from melting down on Phillip and Brandon should their craziness become too much for her sensibilities, Corrine will go far.

4)      Laura

The Highest rated of the fans.  Laura is young enough and mellow enough to appeal to members of both tribes.  She is solid, if not spectacular, in challenges and appears to have sound strategic thinking. 

Unlike the arithmetically challenged Fireman Eddie, she not only eschewed membership in the Minority Alliance of Dipshits, but routinely made mention of the exclusive club of beautiful people, reminding her more disagreeable looking tribe-mates of their chance to avenge themselves upon the type of people who undoubtedly tormented them during their teen years.

Reynold better break out some cuddles soon as Laura may just be queen of the beach and was, incidentally, the only man or woman to notice the bulge in his pants before tribal council.


5)      Andrea
She appears to have weathered the early storm and since Hantz seems to find a different arch-nemesis with each passing moment, Andrea is not constantly front and center.
Eventually, the fact that she was the notorious R.O.B’s protégé will come out and will almost certainly plague her when it comes to being either trusted or viewed as a rube, placing her  behind Dawn and Corinne in the rankings.
She’s still really boring to me but I did like her “raising the roof” when the Specialist named her something ridiculous by the fire.

6)      Brenda

Thus far, the editors have shown us next to nothing about Brenda.

Since we know she is a smart and interesting player from her last season, I suspect it is because she goes far in this game and they don’t want to oversaturate us with Brenda from the get-go.

Brenda is not a member of Crazy Phillip’s happy band of castaways but I am pretty sure that being a member of this esteemed club is something of an embarrassment, like when people find out that you dated Michael Moore or something.

She’s outstanding in water challenges and is laying so low that I forget she’s on the show every week.  That’s not a bad deal.


7)      Cochran

I think that Cochran, above all the other players, has gained the most from his previous experience on the show. 

This is the type of game Cochran should have played last time out but was too paranoid to pull off.  He is perceptive, aware of his foibles, and gives off a nerdy self-confidence and sense of stability.

Only the fact that he is a huge candy-ass keeps him from the top 5.  If the favorites go on a winning streak and he makes it to the merge he can become a serious top 5 threat.


8)       Michael

You can’t play the swing-vote card forever and now that the numbers have shifted around, I suspect that Michael is smart enough to cast his lot firmly with the majority.

We saw signs last episode that he tired of equivocating and I think most members of the “Uncool 6” would look to an even-keeled, hard-working Michael for guidance and leadership.

Brotherhood of the Dome my man!  Make a move so balding guys everywhere can take a little bit more of the covers!


9)      Julia

Maybe with one of the 3 blondes gone I will remember this girl for something other than the fact that she has brown hair.

While her invisibility may be a result of the tribal drama that is eating up air time, I always thought that Stanford-educated racecar drivers wouldn’t be so mind-numbingly dull.

Still, if I don’t know she’s there, and the editors don’t know she’s there, then maybe nobody on the tribe knows she’s there either.  Tough to vote off someone who you forgot is on your tribe right?


10)    Matt

If he hadn’t stood up to the loud-mouth drill-sergeant in the first episode I would swear that he found a grow house nestled in the jungle somewhere.

He is in a pretty good spot by buddying up with Michael but I think his reluctance to commit to a course of action is starting to weigh on his waxy-domed comrade.

At this point in the game, any further equivocation and Matt will start to develop a reputation as being fickle.  Fickle players are at the bottom of alliances and are, next to insufferable crazy people and loud-mouths, the best pre-merge targets.


11)    Sherri

Sherri has 2 things working against her right now:

a)      She has become the champion of the local jack-ass (Shamar)
b)      She thinks she is running the show when, in fact, she is just the champion of the local jack-ass (Shamar).
It was not her decision to save “her Phillip” that swung things her way, but the strategic considerations of her tribe-mates.  If anything, any additional vociferous campaigning to keep Shamar on board will certainly earn the disdain of her tribe for its cynicism. 
She can climb up here above Matt if she drops the drill-sergeant but it’s way too early to absorb a cancer into your game to help you 16 votes down the road.

12)   Erik

I used to think that giving the immunity necklace away was the dumbest move I have ever seen but I am beginning to change my mind.  Only his strength in challenges and general demeanor place him this high in the rankings.

For the love of God Erik, will you please get the $%#& away from Brandon?  Please?

I mean aside form actually being Brandon Hantz, the stupidest thing you could possibly do is to be his sidekick.

Erik is shackled to a corpse.

13)   Reynold

Let’s take a look at this guy’s bumbling thus far:

a)      On the first night on the island, he starts publically having at a girl that even he admits isn’t that cutest.
b)      He proudly joins with that arrogant Delta Bravo Eddie and his minority alliance of pretty baboons, alienating the majority.
c)       Wears skin-tight pants to tribal council and then shoves an idol in the pocket.
At the next council I fully expect he will tell an extremely offensive joke about a tattooed Marine named Michael and a Cougaresque racecar driver from Stanford named Laura.
He seems funny and intelligent enough in his interviews but this dude is a train wreck.
He is, however, a train wreck with the advantage of an immunity idol and an extremely unlikable and lazy drill sergeant pissing people off in camp.

14)   Phillip

These people must like staring at a grown man wearing pink panties far more than I.

Being crazy can keep you safe in this game. 

Being crazy as @#$% does not.

If The Specialist doesn’t tone it down by about 50% then his life expectancy is approximately one vote after Brandon.

15)   Eddie

Mastermind of the dumbest opening gambit since the “punt on first down” made famous by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers teams of the 70’s.

I have never seen a fireman more inherently unlikeable than this guy.  73% of respondents to a recent CBS poll said that if Eddie showed up to rescue them from a burning house that they would punch him in the face.

He provides some much needed beef early in the game for the Fans and it is only for this reason that he doesn’t rest at the bottom of my rankings for this week.


16)   Shamar

Either this guy is the biggest, laziest Son of a Bitch in the Pacific Rim (Including that restaurant worker I saw yelling at people trying to help him in Kauai) or he is overplaying his hand on a level hitherto unseen in this game. 

Let’s look at Shamar’s gameplan shall we?

a)      Lay around on your ass at camp and criticize everyone for the way they do stuff.
b)      Scream like Sam Kinison at everyone within 3 Kilometers of your shelter.
c)       Exhibit a constant bad attitude and belittle anyone who disagrees with your strategies or with your plan to lay around in the shelter all day
It is stupid to make yourself insufferable when in the minority (Eddie) but it is equally as stupid to make yourself insufferable when enjoying an overwhelming majority.

17)   Hope

The weakest member of a dead alliance.

Hope, like most beauty queens cast on this show, is very weak in challenges and the tribe cannot afford to carry her dead weight.

Furthermore, getting rid of Hope next renders Reynold’s idol insignificant even should they decide to vote of the intolerable Shamar immediately after.

Heterosexual men across America will release a collective groan of despair when she gets knocked out the next time the Fans go to tribal.


18)   Brandon

“I’ll Burn down the camp”.

“This is for my kids”

“Dump all the Rice”

“It’s about togetherness”

“I’ll Pee in the beans”

“I want to be a good person”

Having a dude this crazy on Survivor sullies the proud name of Reality TV.  He’ll go the next time the Favorites talk to Probst by the fire unless someone gets hurt or he finds an idol.


19)    Allie—Rated “Poor” when voted out week 2


20)   Francesca—rated “Poor” when voted out week 1

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Survivor Caramoan Season 26 Fans vs. Favorites: Week 1 Write Up and Player Breakdown

One week into this season and l must admit I am more than a little intrigued. 
The physical composition of the Fans tribe is forcing early scrambling among the veteran players and I am curious to see if, like returning players from the past, they self-immolate by voting off people they see as threatening instead of trying to keep a strong tribe.
Francesca erred by throwing all of her eggs in “The Specialist’s” basket the first go around and erred this time by tossing her eggs in everyone’s basket except Phillip, drawing unwanted attention and marking her as a schemer.  She has died by both over and under committing and became the first person in survivor history to be voted out first twice.

Let’s get to the players.

Favorites

Malcolm
I believe Malcolm had a pretty good week.
1)      His failure to best Reynold in the bag-toss may suggest to tribe-mates that he is not the next Ozzie.  It was an OK performance but Reynold broke the mold when it comes to tossing bean bags.  Let it be said that Reynold can really throw a bag.
2)      He cast his vote with the dominant voting block, preventing himself from becoming an early target as a dissenter.
3)      People seem to like him already and he’s under the radar for now.
No change to his status and his trending is consistent.
Longevity rating:  Excellent
Trending:  Flat

Andrea
Andrea put herself out there a little more than you usually like to see in the first few days. 
She played both ends against each other, eventually casting her lot with Phillip leading to Francesca again going home first. 
I think people are viewing her as a real player and, for what it is worth, she has been selected by fate to be the girl who scares the crap out of Brandon. 
She keeps her rating this week because who the hell cares what Brandon Hantz thinks, but she is trending down a bit given the way the first week played out.
Longevity rating:  Good
Trending:  Down

Cochran
For whatever reason, people seem to be falling over themselves to get this guy on their side, seeking to hitch their wagons to a terminally ill horse with a horrifying sunburn.
This development undoubtedly helps his short to mid-term prospects but I believe that the strength of the Fans tribe in challenges may cancel this impact if the Favorites drop a few more immunity contests.
Longevity rating:  ModerateModerate
Trending:  Up

Brandon
For yet another season, Brandon has made clear his mortal fear of pretty girls who actually speak.  If only ugly chicks were allowed to talk instead of these malignant sirens, poor Mr. Hantz would finally find peace in this world.
I thought he was going to go into seizures when Jeff said “…And now Andrea and Hope are going at it!” in the initial reward challenge.
 He’s still crazy and now he’s on the wrong side of the votes with a tribe that may not be as strong as they thought.
Given what I have seen thus far, he has 3 chances to survive more than a couple immunity losses:
1)      Find an idol.
2)      Dupe someone into thinking he found an idol.
3)      Make someone else quit the game by going insane on them.
Longevity rating:  Crappy
Trending:  Down

Dawn
Foolishly, she has cast her lot with the same guy who panicked and screwed her over last time (Cochran).  I always expected to see Dawn on the right side of the early voting so this is no surprise and she always melts down into a weepy mess after a few days so that doesn’t alter my thinking either.
Still, her game plan and early alliance making gives me pause, but not enough to downgrade her at this time.
Longevity rating:  Good
Trending:  Down

Erik
Ye Gods Erik…..
I can’t think of anything worse for this guy than to become Brandon Hantz’s confidant and beach buddy.
Were you being held in a Turkish prison for the last 3 years?
Obviously a force in challenges, Erik had best hope that the powers that be recognize his physical prowess since he’s already a Hantz-lover on the wrong side of the votes.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Down

Phillip
He’s abrasive, delusional, and doesn’t know the first thing about quotes from Machiavelli.
Francesca’s big mouth and feverish plotting saved him from an early exit and Brandon’s craziness will likely save him again should they lose next week’s immunity challenge.
Get used to seeing the pink undies, The Specialist is in the house.
Longevity rating:  Poor
Trending:  Up

Corinne
To her credit, Corinne did not come off as a huge arsehole…..yet.
To her discredit, she didn’t really do much of anything except pour water on Cochran’s burned pate.
If her game plan is to ingratiate herself with the dungeon master, then not only does she have a dumbass plan, but she’ll run smack into Dawn who has the same dumbass plan.
No change here.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Flat

Brenda
Not a good start for Brenda.  Not only was she tagged out of the gate as a huge strategic threat, but she ended up siding with the losers in the vote at tribal council.
The editing did not really afford me a good look at her game so I am loathe to make any sweeping judgments here but I need to drop her down a bit given that she is viewed warily by the other players and is voting the wrong way right out of the gate.
She can scramble and recover but the road just got tougher.
Longevity rating:  Good
Trending:  Down

Francesca
Ahh Francesca.  We hardly knew ye…..
THE TRIBE HAS SPOKEN—Week 1

Fans:

Allie

The big drop of the week.
“She’s not the cutest”
No argument here. 
When your single claim to fame lies in being the ugliest of 3 indistinguishable blonde girls, I can’t see having much confidence going forward.
When average looking chicks who are kind of soft in challenges publically make out with guys named Reynold, it never ends well.  Ever.
The shelter snuggles ensure that she will be targeted early and often if a few immunity challenges go south.
Longevity rating:  Poor
Trending:  Down

Eddie

Last week I wrote that I kind of liked this guy.  This week, I kind of don’t like this guy.
The “cool kids table” outlook not only reeks of pomposity, but is also pretty damn stupid when you have only 4 cool kids against 6 outsiders that you make a point of excluding.
They don’t appear to practice much math in the firehouse.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Down

Hope

There seems to be very little to her game aside from giggling at the fireman.
……
Ahem….moving on….
In any event, this isn’t a beauty contest and she may be on the wrong side of the numbers. 
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Down

Julia

I remember this girl because she has brown hair.
And that’s about all I have to say about that
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Up

Laura

Apparently, the local fireman does not deem this young blonde to be worthy of a spot at the cool kids’ table.
If she figures out (unlike pompous Eddie) that 6 > 4 then she’s gotta be pretty happy about that development.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Up

Matt

This dude may be saved from early elimination if the tribe does well in challenges for a couple more weeks and he can patch things up with the drill sergeant.
He needs to stay close with Michael and hope that the “beautiful people” continue to devolve into middle school students.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Up

Michael
The big climb of the week.

This Moby looking guy looks like he knows what he is doing and now he may have the numbers if he plays his cards right.

All members of the fans tribe get a boost now that we have seen that they can stick it to the favorites in challenges but I feel really good about Michael’s demeanor and plan.

The only reason I don’t kick him up another level in longevity is that I am not convinced he stacks up physically to the meatheads on the tribe and I have a feeling that the cool kids may be able to convince the drill sergeant to vote with them if they lose a couple immunity challanges.

Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Up

Reynold

I underestimated this guy’s competitiveness if not his intellect.
I would have bumped him up for his physical prowess and his ability to toss bean bags into holes.
……
That too sounds kind of inappropriate given his activities in the tent with the girl who is “not the cutest.”
Anyway, I think the tribe will probably whack Allie before Reynold just to try and stay strong in challenges but he may need to scramble a bit to make it to the merge.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Flat

Shamar
By not taking charge opting instead to sit around and bitching about what other people are doing and THEN taking charge, Shamar really showed us how foolish we were to think he might rub people the wrong way.
Moreover, if I ever have to see you stretch on the beach again I am going to sue the bejesus out of both Jeff Probst and the United States Marine Corps.
A beast in the first challenge, he will be kept around for muscle for the foreseeable future as long as he can step off just a little bit.
This guy is, to me, the biggest wild card.  If he goes with the meatheads, the beauty queen, and the “not the cutest” girl, it can really tip the balance of power. 
Shamar strikes me as the type of guy who may be swayed by the physical abilities of the cool kids and eschew playing the more savvy numbers game if things get tough.  The question is whether or not he would vote off one of the blondes and let the fireman and the bag-tosser stick around for some beef.
I think the way things fell in week one helps his prospects if he acts rationally.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Up

Sherri

Well….
I guess she hasn’t pissed anyone off or proven herself to be a liability.
The only downside I see is that every Stiffler’s Mom needs a Finch to pine for them and I don’t see one on this tribe.
I’ll let the rating and trend ride for a week anyway.
Longevity rating:  Moderate
Trending:  Flat

Who got voted out and my rating for them at the time:
Week 1:   Francesca--Poor