Frey's NFL Picks Week 17: The End

Well my friends, it has indeed been an unusual season to be sure.

We saw the Cleveland Browns go from 0-16 to being a missed field goal and a missed extra point from being a wild card team.

The Denver Broncos defeated 3 playoff teams and were a stupid coaching decision or two away from defeating 3 others.  Then they get killed by the only 4 teams in the NFL with fewer wins than Denver over the past 3 years.

New England looks like garbage compared to their excellence over the last decade and a half but is still going to get a bye week in the playoffs.

After years of toiling under the monotony of Alex Smith, Kansas City fielded the most exciting and dynamic  QB since pre-clink Michael Vick……and (yet again) played like crap down the stretch.

John Gruden should win Coach of the Year for singlehandedly turning Chicago and Dallas from rubbish to contenders.

In a way, I’m sad to see it all end.  But in another more important way, this year sucked since I can’t stand any other franchise aside from Denver.

Yep.  It has been a tough year....

Let’s have one last go at the picks and then wash our hands of the 2018 season.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-5 ½)

Yet again, Baltimore is that team that nobody wants to play as the playoffs approach.  This game may mean nothing to the Ravens, but they won’t know that until after Pittsburgh plays.

Sorry Cleveland.  I gotta go against you guys one more time.

These guys are my Dark Horse AFC pick.  Lamar Jackson probably won't get killed until next year.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-7 ½)

The Panthers are the Broncos of the NFC.  With Cam on the shelf now, they are nothing more than a 1 trick pony (C-Mac) with a shitty quarterback.

The Saints don’t really need this game but you don’t wanna go into the playoffs losing to a division rival at home with a 3^rd string QB at the helm.

Time to pull out the “Don’t bet on crappy teams” gambit.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-6 ½)

Do you know what is similar between me and the bulk of the players that the Cowboys will be fielding for this meaningless road game?

We both have about the same amount of starting NFL experience.

Dallas has no reason to show up for this one so they probably won’t.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (+5 ½)

And so we come to the final trap game of the season.

Both teams desperately need this game.

Mariota sucks anyway so having him out should hurt the Titans as much as people think.

Indy sucks on the road.

Too many points.  Too big of a game. 

I’m going the home dogs.

Week 16:  3-1

2018 Record: 32-27-1

Trap Game Record: 9-6

Frey's NFL Picks Week 16: Throwing in the Towel

Good morning my friends!

For reasons outside my control I was unable to get my picks posted last week before kickoff.  Be assured that I was going to go 4-0 but since I cannot prove it we’ll just move on.

Picking games at the end of the year is less about numbers and matchups than it is about situation and heart.

Half of the teams in the league no longer have anything for which to play, which makes it a bit tougher to determine the nature of the outcome.

 When making picks involving teams whose players are already planning trips to Vegas or island golf courses, it becomes less a matter of talent and more a matter of will.

3 of the 4 games this week involve teams that look to have totally packed it in.  

I’m picking against all of them.

This is what happens when teams quit.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-6 ½)

I believe we can finally bid adieu to the Marvin Lewis regime after 16 years and no playoff wins.

Only 5 franchises have a playoff victory draught as long as Lewis has been coaching the Bengals.

This doesn't help either.....

This isn’t the NBA or MLB where such ineptitude is commonplace and expected.  If a team goes more than 10 years without a playoff victory it is a sign of almost criminal ineptitude.

Lame duck coach.  Road game against a motivated division foe.  Inept franchise.

This is the trifecta of despair.

I cannot believe I’m saying this, but take the Browns and feel good about it.

Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-½)

Both teams sorely need this game but only one of them doesn’t get their quarterback slaughtered on a weekly basis.

The Texans have surrender 55 sacks this year and it looks like this beating is finally starting to take its toll on their collective psyche.

If Deshaun Watson leaves this game under his own power, it will be a huge victory for Houston but it is the only victory they are likely to enjoy this day.

Expect to see this happen 6 times today

Take the champs at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins (-3)

I’m going to put as much effort into this pick as the Jaguars do each week.

Minnesota Vikings (-5 ½) @ Detroit Lions

It seems strange to me that a team in desperate need of win, who is accustomed to playing in a dome, and whose opponent seems to harbor immense dislike for their head coach (keeper of keys and grounds at Hogwarts) is only a 5 ½ point favorite.

An old favorite but never more true than this year.

I’m taking the Norsemen here.

Week 14:  2-2

2018 Record: 29-26-1

Trap Game Record: 8-6

Trap Game Record: 8-6

Frey's NFL Picks Week 14: Gotta Love the Uncertainty!

As I sat down to consider the game son tap this week, I was forcibly reminded why the NFL continues (despite a multitude of controversies and asinine rule changes) to grow in popularity.

In no other major US sport can fan bases across the country harbor any reasonable expectation that their respective teams have a legitimate shot at mounting a deep drive into the playoffs. 

Take, for example, the fact that teams labeled as “mediocre at best and abysmal at worst”  by most experts (Chicago, Seattle, and Houston) are an impressive 24-12 collectively and all appear playoff bound.

More importantly, it is not a stretch to say that any one of these teams could do some serious damage in the playoffs and even bring home the Lombardy Trophy if a few bounces go their way.

Conversely, nobody could have predicted that teams such as Atlanta, Green Bay, and Jacksonville, despite the nearly universal belief in their excellence, would sport a combined 12-23-1 amidst coach firings and calls for dismemberment.

Contrast this with the NBA.  At the beginning of every season since the early 80’s, all but 2 or 3 teams have absolutely no shot at winning the championship and everybody knows it.

In baseball, one can usually just pick 1 of 4 big market/big payroll teams and be assured that they will be in the World Series while everyone else just sees if they can get lucky enough to get to the playoffs for their annual butt kicking.

The NHL is a bit better in this respect but barring mass retirements or catastrophic injuries, the teams who were good the year before and are predicted to be good are almost always good.   There was little or no chance that the Washington Capitals and Nashville Predators would finish 10 games below .500 and miss the playoffs while the Florida Panthers bring home the President’s Trophy.

This type of craziness happens all the time in the NFL and I, for one, love the uncertainty.

It’s picking time!

Denver Broncos (-3 ½) @ San Francisco 49ers

The 2018 Broncos are the only team I’ve ever seen that loses their best players and gets better.  I suspect it forces our coaching staff to actually create game plans that play to the strengths of the team instead of forcing square pegs into round holes like we’ve been doing since Kubiak was coach.

With Sanders and Harris now out for the season we’ll probably win by like 50.

I’m going with a hunch and going with the cover.

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (+1 ½)

Yep.  I’m taking Cleveland.  And may God have mercy on my soul.

I got this message after selecting the Browns....

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-4)

I was tempted to make this the Admiral Akbar trap game of the week as I cannot see any legitimate reason why a team that was shut out by a Jacksonville squad that quit 4 weeks ago is only a 4 point underdog, on the road, to a team that has won 9 straight games.

A captured letter from Andrew Luck follow last week's fiasco.

Don’t over think it.  Take the Texans.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (+3 ½)

And so it comes to the trap.

The Bears just gave up 30 points to a Giants team whose only competent players are a rookie and a bearded malcontent.

Furthermore, Trubisky is still banged up despite the fact that he’ll play.

Rams should roll in this game but I cannot shake the feeling that Chicago shows up big today.

I’m not going to fall into this trap.  Bears and the points please.

Week 13:  3-1

2018 Record: 27-24-1

Trap Game Record: 7-6

Trap Game Record: 7-6

Frey's NFL picks Week 13: Always More Competent than NFL Security

The NFL's Head of Security reacts to the fact that a hallweay full of cameras actually saw something.

Prior to venturing into the always dangerous and sometimes entertaining realm of prognostication, I wold like to take a moment to express my disgust with the baboonery of everyone involved in the Kareem Hunt fiasco.

But officer, she said mean things!

Obviously, I'll start with the Chiefs' second most egregious perpetrator of violence against women (Tyreek Hill still occupies the top spot), Kareem Hunt.

According to Hunt, he and his entourage were mortified to discover that the victim, who they invited on their party bus and plied with liquor until after 3:00 AM, was only 19 years old.

Upon discovering this startling news, they asked her to leave, whereupon she spontaneously launched into a diatribe of racially charged rants and vile name calling.  Hill valiantly fought of his own group of friends who attempted to restrain him, knocked the woman down with a totally legal hit showing perfect form, and then returned to kick her in the butt as she sat dazed on the floor.  

Immediately after the hit, one of Kareem’s erstwhile comrades wisely stole the cell phone from another woman filming what was going down.

If you have the IQ of an envelope and believe Hunt’s version of events, “she called us names” is still not a viable defense for assaulting anyone, much less a college Freshman that you have been trying to get drunk all night.

Incidentally, the young woman assaulted says they were partying all night together and Hunt tried to pimp her out to one of his buddies.  When she refused, they belittled her and physically removed her from the party.  She was drunk, angry, and embarrassed and became very belligerent.

Now on to the Cleveland PD who show up shortly after the events went down.

Hearing a wildly disparate set of interviews about what transpired, they ignore the hallway full of cameras, label the assault a  “he said, she said”, protect the local famous athlete, and press no charges.

They later said they didn’t ask to see the plethora of footage because whatever took place (and I guess only Sherlock Holmes is astute enough to figure this one out) was unlikely to be a felony.

This may be the dumbest thing I have ever heard.  Well played Cleveland PD.  Well played.

   

Finally, the NFL, a multi-Billion dollar company whose crack team of security professionals and investigators can tell you what every goat farmer in Afghanistan ate for breakfast the morning of August 4^th 2006, was (yet again) unable to obtain video footage painting one of their stars in bad light.

It is now reported that the NFL told the Chiefs to stop trying to get the tapes of the assault because the investigation was now a league matter.

I am tempted to call this a cover up by both the NFL and the police but will settle for “willful ignorance” in accordance with Hanlan’s Razor to “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.”

In the future, I want TMZ to handle all investigations for everyone going forward.  They seem to be the only entity of note capable of doing anything meaningful in these circumstances.

I’m too hacked off to keep going on this topic and am out of time.  Let’s pick.

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (+1 ½)

Buffalo Bills (+5 ½) @ Miami Dolphins

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans (-5)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+14 ½)

Week 11:  2-2

2018 Record: 24-23-1

Trap Game Record: 6-6

Frey's NFL Picks Week 12: It's Comeback Time!

There are no words in Entish, Elvish, or the tongues of man to describe the shame I feel about last week’s zero-burger.

However, if our recent political climate has taught us anything, it is blame someone else and declare victory anyway.

Therefore, let it be said that since I was in a huge hurry last week, the hostile fake-news industry was able to erroneously perceive my lack of picking any games right as a week in which fewer than 1 game(s) was picked right.

Don’t fall for the narrative of my enemies and naysayers.

I make the best picks.  My picks are Yuge. 

Let’s pick.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

If there is one thing I can say about the Carolina Panthers (aside from the fact that Cam Newton is something of a jackwagon) it’s that they love themselves some home cooking.

I can't stand this guy....

Seattle is definitely playing above their talent level but I’ll take a Carolina team that is unbeaten at home and playing for their lives to win and cover.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

It is about this time in every season that the Bengals rattle off a few wins so that they get a crappy draft pick and make the front office entertain keeping Marv Lewis around for another year.

Like his "Elf on the Shelf" cousins, Andy Dalton usually makes an appearance just after Thanksgiving

I have always been one to respect tradition.  Take the Bengals to perform their annual self-hosing.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Only 3 teams in the entire league have been unable to win a road game this year and the Packers are one of them.

Only a very lucky win against Chicago in week 1 has prevented the Packers from getting swept by teams with winning records.

I see nothing this week to suggest that either of these trends get bucked.

This look has become commonplace for the Pack after road games.

Skål.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1 ½)

So what the odds makers are telling me is that a 2-8 49ers team starting a 3^rd string quarterback, is winless on the road, and who just had to cut their stud linebacker for knocking around women (again) is going to travel all the way across the United States to play a game that starts at 10:00 AM Pacific is going to compete?

I don’t care who is quarterbacking the Bucs, they should win by double digits.

Very trappy my friends.  Very Trappy….

Week 11:  0-4 (but the picks were yuge)

2018 Record: 22-21-1

Trap Game Record: 5-6

Frey's NFL Picks: Week 11: Short and Sweet

A very good day to you my friends!

Sadly, the business of life has made it necessary to kick out slightly abbreviated version of The Invectives today so those of you accustomed to long but extrodinarily insightful analysis may be saddened by this turn of events.

Others of you are probably thanking a variety of deities for the break from my rants.

The picks are thus:

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-3 ½)

Since Dallas squeaked by a severely underperforming opponent with a Super Bowl hangover worse than if they had gone to Reno with Krusty the Clown for 2 weeks, it’s time for them to lay an egg again.

I have a hunch that Atlanta wins and covers this one.

Tennessee Titans (+2 ½) @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts may feel pretty good after hanging on to beating the Jacksonville Dupsterfires, but a Titans team that is finally healthy with a legit defense is going to disappoint the notoriously polite Indianapolis fan base.

Last week's win against these guys doesn't tell us much about Indy.

Titans not only cover but may pull off the upset here.

Carolina Panthers (-3 ½) @ Detroit Lions

Rubius Hagrid (like most Belichik disciples) is beginning the melting-down process as expected.

The Lions’ notoriously inept background investigation team also missed the fact that Hagrid was banned from performing magic.

Detroit has learned that Uncle Vernon was right all along.  There is no such thing as magic.

Panthers roll.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles (for now) Chargers (-7)

All week long I keep hearing about the following points from local pundits:

1)      Denver’s defensive front matches up well against the Chargers. 

2)      Denver’s fans travel so well it will seem like a home game

3)      Denver is well rested and coming off a bye week.

One item seems to be getting lost in the desperate local drive for optimism.

Denver is crappy and the Chargers are not.

Moreover, Joey Bosa is expected to play for the first time this year and Denver’s offensive line consists of 2 tackles playing guards, a back-up guard playing center, a banged up right tackle, and <ahem> Garrett Bolles.

If this makeshift line of backups and out of position players performs adequately, it will prove once and for all that our coaching staff is a bunch of dunderpates.

A spread this small given the circumstances seems trappy to me but the Bolts are the bet on this day.

Week 10:  2-2

2018 Record: 22-17-1

Trap Game Record: 5-5

Freys NFL Picks Week 10: And One Final Broncos Rant

That’s right chumps!  Frey is back in business with a 4-0 week of picks and I intend to keep it rolling right along.

Perfection is back on the menu my friends!

Before delving into the always entertaining realm of prognostication, it seems clear that a final Broncos rant is in order.

As a general rule, I do not favor the firing of coaches unless it involves gross incompetence (such as Marty Mornhinweg from the Lions who won the coin toss in OT and elected to kick off) or cheating (anyone ever associated with the Patriots organization) but after last week, it seems clear that Vance Joseph is in WAY over his head here.

Aside from subpar preparation (vs. Jets) or a spectacular inability to finish games (vs. everyone else), one could not directly pin our losses directly on VJ.

Then the Texans come around and we:

1)      Attempt a 62 yard field goal with 18 seconds still left on the clock.  We miss it, and Houston (who has a timeout available) gets like 15 yards and adds to their lead.  You never attempt a 60+ yard field goal in a close game unless your opponent won’t see the ball again.  Ever.

2)      With 40 seconds left and a time out in hand, the coaches decide to huddle up, run the clock down, and then plunge a 180 pound rookie into the middle of the line.  This is actually a good idea…..when you are NOT  fifty-two yards away from the goal posts!  This ain’t no chip shot Vance!  We had all day to get McManus a little closer to win the game and chose to do something dumb instead.

I’m not even going to get into the fiasco of the subsequent press conferences.

I initially wondered why VJ was still our coach until I remembered some wisdom from Robert Bloch:

“The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on.”

Elway will keep him on through the rest of the year for one reason alone:  Scapegoat.

Let’s pick games.

Atlanta Falcons (-5 ½) @ Cleveland Browns

I do not need to tell you all how refreshing it is to see the universe set back in order by tacking a nice big “L” next to the Browns every week.

I suspect that a couple wins and tie for Cleveland are what set the markets into a free-fall.

Oh @#$%...Cleveland is winning again.  Sell Sell SELL!

With nothing less than our national economy at stake, Atlanta goes into the Factory of Sadness and horse-whips these guys.

Los Angeles Chargers (-9 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland is terrible.  The Chargers are not terrible.

The only thing more funny than watching the Raiders embarass themselves every week is the prospect that they are tanking so they can draft that Oregon guy who scouts are calling “The Poor Man’s Ryan Tannehill”.

Keep it up Raiders.  You have my blessing.

Seattle Seahawks (+9 ½) @ Los Angeles Rams

The spread for this game is far too big for a team that just game up 45 points the previous week.

I also have it on good authority that Wade Phillips was kidnapped and replaced with Jack DelRio.

I don’t think Seattle can hang here offensively but they are competent enough not to get totally abused.

This game screams back-door cover.  

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

It was my initial intent to label this as the clunker of the week but then I remembered that the Bills are bringing the carcass of Matt Barkley out of cold storage to start against the Jets.

As many of you know, a general rule of thumb is that teams get 3 points for playing at home.

In this case, a god-awful Giants team is travelling across the country to play a road game at 9:15 PM Eastern Time and is only a 3 point underdog?

I don’t care who the 49ers are starting at QB.

Something smells trappy here….

Week 9:  4-0

2018 Record: 20-15-1

Trap Game Record: 5-4