Frey's NFL Picks Week 12: It's Comeback Time!

There are no words in Entish, Elvish, or the tongues of man to describe the shame I feel about last week’s zero-burger.

However, if our recent political climate has taught us anything, it is blame someone else and declare victory anyway.

Therefore, let it be said that since I was in a huge hurry last week, the hostile fake-news industry was able to erroneously perceive my lack of picking any games right as a week in which fewer than 1 game(s) was picked right.

Don’t fall for the narrative of my enemies and naysayers.

I make the best picks.  My picks are Yuge. 

Let’s pick.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers (-3)

If there is one thing I can say about the Carolina Panthers (aside from the fact that Cam Newton is something of a jackwagon) it’s that they love themselves some home cooking.

I can't stand this guy....

Seattle is definitely playing above their talent level but I’ll take a Carolina team that is unbeaten at home and playing for their lives to win and cover.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

It is about this time in every season that the Bengals rattle off a few wins so that they get a crappy draft pick and make the front office entertain keeping Marv Lewis around for another year.

Like his "Elf on the Shelf" cousins, Andy Dalton usually makes an appearance just after Thanksgiving

I have always been one to respect tradition.  Take the Bengals to perform their annual self-hosing.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Only 3 teams in the entire league have been unable to win a road game this year and the Packers are one of them.

Only a very lucky win against Chicago in week 1 has prevented the Packers from getting swept by teams with winning records.

I see nothing this week to suggest that either of these trends get bucked.

This look has become commonplace for the Pack after road games.

Skål.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1 ½)

So what the odds makers are telling me is that a 2-8 49ers team starting a 3^rd string quarterback, is winless on the road, and who just had to cut their stud linebacker for knocking around women (again) is going to travel all the way across the United States to play a game that starts at 10:00 AM Pacific is going to compete?

I don’t care who is quarterbacking the Bucs, they should win by double digits.

Very trappy my friends.  Very Trappy….

Week 11:  0-4 (but the picks were yuge)

2018 Record: 22-21-1

Trap Game Record: 5-6

Frey's NFL Picks: Week 11: Short and Sweet

A very good day to you my friends!

Sadly, the business of life has made it necessary to kick out slightly abbreviated version of The Invectives today so those of you accustomed to long but extrodinarily insightful analysis may be saddened by this turn of events.

Others of you are probably thanking a variety of deities for the break from my rants.

The picks are thus:

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons (-3 ½)

Since Dallas squeaked by a severely underperforming opponent with a Super Bowl hangover worse than if they had gone to Reno with Krusty the Clown for 2 weeks, it’s time for them to lay an egg again.

I have a hunch that Atlanta wins and covers this one.

Tennessee Titans (+2 ½) @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts may feel pretty good after hanging on to beating the Jacksonville Dupsterfires, but a Titans team that is finally healthy with a legit defense is going to disappoint the notoriously polite Indianapolis fan base.

Last week's win against these guys doesn't tell us much about Indy.

Titans not only cover but may pull off the upset here.

Carolina Panthers (-3 ½) @ Detroit Lions

Rubius Hagrid (like most Belichik disciples) is beginning the melting-down process as expected.

The Lions’ notoriously inept background investigation team also missed the fact that Hagrid was banned from performing magic.

Detroit has learned that Uncle Vernon was right all along.  There is no such thing as magic.

Panthers roll.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles (for now) Chargers (-7)

All week long I keep hearing about the following points from local pundits:

1)      Denver’s defensive front matches up well against the Chargers. 

2)      Denver’s fans travel so well it will seem like a home game

3)      Denver is well rested and coming off a bye week.

One item seems to be getting lost in the desperate local drive for optimism.

Denver is crappy and the Chargers are not.

Moreover, Joey Bosa is expected to play for the first time this year and Denver’s offensive line consists of 2 tackles playing guards, a back-up guard playing center, a banged up right tackle, and <ahem> Garrett Bolles.

If this makeshift line of backups and out of position players performs adequately, it will prove once and for all that our coaching staff is a bunch of dunderpates.

A spread this small given the circumstances seems trappy to me but the Bolts are the bet on this day.

Week 10:  2-2

2018 Record: 22-17-1

Trap Game Record: 5-5

Freys NFL Picks Week 10: And One Final Broncos Rant

That’s right chumps!  Frey is back in business with a 4-0 week of picks and I intend to keep it rolling right along.

Perfection is back on the menu my friends!

Before delving into the always entertaining realm of prognostication, it seems clear that a final Broncos rant is in order.

As a general rule, I do not favor the firing of coaches unless it involves gross incompetence (such as Marty Mornhinweg from the Lions who won the coin toss in OT and elected to kick off) or cheating (anyone ever associated with the Patriots organization) but after last week, it seems clear that Vance Joseph is in WAY over his head here.

Aside from subpar preparation (vs. Jets) or a spectacular inability to finish games (vs. everyone else), one could not directly pin our losses directly on VJ.

Then the Texans come around and we:

1)      Attempt a 62 yard field goal with 18 seconds still left on the clock.  We miss it, and Houston (who has a timeout available) gets like 15 yards and adds to their lead.  You never attempt a 60+ yard field goal in a close game unless your opponent won’t see the ball again.  Ever.

2)      With 40 seconds left and a time out in hand, the coaches decide to huddle up, run the clock down, and then plunge a 180 pound rookie into the middle of the line.  This is actually a good idea…..when you are NOT  fifty-two yards away from the goal posts!  This ain’t no chip shot Vance!  We had all day to get McManus a little closer to win the game and chose to do something dumb instead.

I’m not even going to get into the fiasco of the subsequent press conferences.

I initially wondered why VJ was still our coach until I remembered some wisdom from Robert Bloch:

“The man who smiles when things go wrong has thought of someone to blame it on.”

Elway will keep him on through the rest of the year for one reason alone:  Scapegoat.

Let’s pick games.

Atlanta Falcons (-5 ½) @ Cleveland Browns

I do not need to tell you all how refreshing it is to see the universe set back in order by tacking a nice big “L” next to the Browns every week.

I suspect that a couple wins and tie for Cleveland are what set the markets into a free-fall.

Oh @#$%...Cleveland is winning again.  Sell Sell SELL!

With nothing less than our national economy at stake, Atlanta goes into the Factory of Sadness and horse-whips these guys.

Los Angeles Chargers (-9 ½) @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland is terrible.  The Chargers are not terrible.

The only thing more funny than watching the Raiders embarass themselves every week is the prospect that they are tanking so they can draft that Oregon guy who scouts are calling “The Poor Man’s Ryan Tannehill”.

Keep it up Raiders.  You have my blessing.

Seattle Seahawks (+9 ½) @ Los Angeles Rams

The spread for this game is far too big for a team that just game up 45 points the previous week.

I also have it on good authority that Wade Phillips was kidnapped and replaced with Jack DelRio.

I don’t think Seattle can hang here offensively but they are competent enough not to get totally abused.

This game screams back-door cover.  

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)

It was my initial intent to label this as the clunker of the week but then I remembered that the Bills are bringing the carcass of Matt Barkley out of cold storage to start against the Jets.

As many of you know, a general rule of thumb is that teams get 3 points for playing at home.

In this case, a god-awful Giants team is travelling across the country to play a road game at 9:15 PM Eastern Time and is only a 3 point underdog?

I don’t care who the 49ers are starting at QB.

Something smells trappy here….

Week 9:  4-0

2018 Record: 20-15-1

Trap Game Record: 5-4

Frey's NFL Picks Week 9: More Reasons to Rant

In order to cleverly steer the conversation away from my less than stellar 1-3 record last week, management has decided that I should follow up last week’s unscheduled Broncos rant with an unscheduled Broncos rant.

You might think that I would complain about the offloading of DT while the season is still salvageable; that trading a quality player who is an excellent locker room presence and (by all accounts) a good human being sends a bad message to both the team and its fans.

True my rant is DT related but it’s probably not what you think.

1)      First and foremost, the season is not, in actuality, salvageable.

2)      We were never going to pay Thomas 14 million dollars next year in this or any other universe so getting a 4^th round pick and offloading the contract is nothing short of a minor miracle.

3)      Wide Receivers do NOT win championships.

My actual displeasure is two-fold.

Why did it take 8 games for this coaching staff to figure out that the bad-ass 2^nd round pick who schooled Chris Harris and dominated the preseason (and makes like 10 million less a year) needs to get more involved in the game plan? 

I can’t shake the feeling that the only way these chuckleheads were going to make this the Sanders-Sutton show was if DT was offloaded or injured.

But do you want to know what really puts a snake in my boot? 

The fact that we trade our most seasoned Bronco to the team we are playing this week and then act like there is no advantage to be had by our opponents.

Even if the specific game plan is not known to the departing player, a set and specific set of calls are made at the line of scrimmage on most plays depending upon personnel and formation.

In order to avoid a circumstance where the Texans know 80% of everything we’re going to do, we’d have to change up a system that has been in place for months whereupon Garrett Boles will get 700 yards of penalties before simply passing out cold in the middle of the field due to the intellectual strain.

If Denver is going to win this game, we’ll have to do it with Houston knowing what were going to do half of the time and, with this offense in particular, that does not bode well.

OK Houston.  Let's do this....

Enough of this though.  Let’s pick some games.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3 ½)

I cannot recall having ever seen a .500 team fail the eye test worse than this year’s incarnation of the Dolphins.  

Somehow they look bad even when not looking bad.  

I can’t really explain it with any degree of coherency so I’ll focus on the other team instead.

The Jets are terrible.

Irony:  a state of affairs or an event that seems deliberately contrary to what one expects and is often amusing as a result.

I don’t like the ½ point kicker (I’ve been getting killed by the half-point this year) but I’m taking the Fins in their own house.

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-5 ½)

As expected, the demise of the New England Patriots has been exaggerated yet again.

As long as Uggs and the woman from Throw Momma from the Train are running the show over there, they are going to be good.

Belichick and Brady continue their long and fruitful partnership to the expense of us all.

Conversely, year in and year out, pundits fawn all over the Packers, paying no heed to their multiple blemishes.

I’m taking another position on the Pack.  

The franchise has been criminally inept for 26 years.

Green Bay has benefited from having Hall of Fame QB’s (some will argue Rodgers and Favre are 2 of the top 5 at their position who ever played) every season since 1992.

Only 2 Super Bowls in 26 years with 2 of the best players in history at the most important position in sports is laughable.

Anyone else would have won 6 or 7 championships with those guys.

As far as this game is concerned, the Pack are 0-3 on the road, are playing a superior team, and shot off their collective blunderbusses last week against the Rams.

The cheaters roll here.

Tennessee Titans (+6 ½) @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are the gift that just keeps on giving. 

No level of sub-mediocrity is sufficient to get people to stop betting on these clowns.

People like this enable Casinos to build huge buildings

Tennessee is getting healthier and coming off a bye week. 

Dallas may win since it is a home game, but it is bad policy to pick below average teams to win by more than 4 unless they’re playing the Raiders.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-4 ½)

Unless the Vikings were out on that “special boat” from a couple years back, this spread is far too low.

Moreover, Rubius Hagrid just proved that he is yet another asswagon in a long line of Belichickian asswagons by bullying a reporter abut poor posture.

It sounds to me like Matt Patricia sees a lot of slumping and eye-rolling in his locker room and simply took his frustrations out on someone who can’t tell him to go bugger himself.

If it looks like a trap and it walks like a trap and it quacks like a trap….

Week 8:  1-3

2018 Record: 16-15-1

Trap Game Record: 4-4